North Korea

[Ken 119]

1 hour ago, Renton said:

 

If you were blinded to the origin of the recent rhetoric, you would be unable to attribute which comments belonged to which leader. There's a reason for that, both are as mad as each other. That's concerning.

 

As for a nuclear arms race in the south China sea. Is that really a good idea?

 

In a way I can't "win" here with my concerned standpoint. Firstly, I still think the probability of escalating conflict is low. Probably less than 10 percent. But if it does happen, there will be far greater concerns ahead than this message board! 

 

Guess my main issue is that people didn't think Trump would be that bad. Well, he fuckng well is. 

I agree. Both are cowboys. Both speak without putting thought into what comes out of the mouth so-to-speak and their intentions are to inject enthusiasm in their respective supporter bases. It is pure rhetoric.

 

A nuclear arms race in the south China sea? No, this is northern Asia. Trump has had thoughts on cost cutting. Getting out of NATO and trimming expenditure in the Pacific were in his thought bubble leading up to the Presidential election. 40,000 military in SK and 30,000 in Japan and the costs associated with that even though those countries pay for most of their presence there. An example of his cluelessness about the world outside of his own. His thinking is if these countries have nuclear weapons NK or anyone else will not mess with them and so many troops would not be required. I am sure his advisers put him into line about it. Japan is a quasi-nuclear state anyway. A stockpile of enriched uranium and the industrial and technological prowess to mass produce. Back in the mid 90's iirc one of their politicians boasted that they could produce 1000 a year. Do I think it is good idea? Well NK and Pakistan have them, it is a fair argument to say why shouldn't two democratic and responsible nations who are allies have them as well.

 

 

[Ken 119]

1 hour ago, Rayvin said:

 

Sounds about right. The thing is, does landing a missile 30km off the coast of Guam count? Would the Chinese stand for that if someone did it to them? Maybe they would, but the margins for interpretation are intriguing here.

 

If China gets involved in the war then nothing will be resolved. The US will be repelled at the cost of some 2 million dead Chinese and things will rumble on much as they have been for some time. Having said that, this briefing I suspect indicates that NK aren't going to do anything stupid. China has flat out said here that they won't support them if they attack first - so they won't, IMO.

You underestimate the Chinese. This isn't 1950.

[Rayvin 5217]

Just now, Ken said:

You underestimate the Chinese. This isn't 1950.

 

Maybe, maybe not. Their main strength is the size of their standing army though, whereas the Americans have strength in technological ability.

 

As you've said, none of this is going to come to pass anyway. I rather fancy the US and China have a number of backchannels in place for keeping everything under control. 

[Ken 119]

7 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Maybe, maybe not. Their main strength is the size of their standing army though, whereas the Americans have strength in technological ability.

 

As you've said, none of this is going to come to pass anyway. I rather fancy the US and China have a number of backchannels in place for keeping everything under control. 

China are a modern military. Although a lot of what they have was stolen from America by cyber espionage and are inferior spinoffs they now have a base to advance with what they have. They are testing hypersonic missiles that we know of, and have aircraft carrier killers which cannot be defended against which makes America's super carriers almost obsolete in theory anyway. A land war would hurt America more and they are war weary. China still lacks an ability to project power but are working on it. They are mass producing naval assets and have nearly completed their first indigenous aircraft carrier with 2 more in the works. They will be a blue water navy pretty soon.

[Rayvin 5217]

9 minutes ago, Ken said:

China are a modern military. Although a lot of what they have was stolen from America by cyber espionage and are inferior spinoffs they now have a base to advance with what they have. They are testing hypersonic missiles that we know of, and have aircraft carrier killers which cannot be defended against which makes America's super carriers almost obsolete in theory anyway. A land war would hurt America more and they are war weary. China still lacks an ability to project power but are working on it. They are mass producing naval assets and have nearly completed their first indigenous aircraft carrier with 2 more in the works. They will be a blue water navy pretty soon.

 

Interesting post, thanks.

[Renton 21612]

I need to brush up on my geography and geoglobal politics. 

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

 

[Anorthernsoul 1221]

 

[Rayvin 5217]

Is Trump actually playing a blinder here?

 

Saying stuff like this basically forces NK to respond - if they don't fire a missile at Guam now, they're going to look ridiculous and like they're empty on their threats. If they do fire, the US will obliterate them and China will let it happen.

 

Is this becoming lose-lose for NK?

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

I think he's playing it correctly, him being mental enough to have NK second guessing is helping too

[Renton 21612]

18 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Is Trump actually playing a blinder here?

 

Saying stuff like this basically forces NK to respond - if they don't fire a missile at Guam now, they're going to look ridiculous and like they're empty on their threats. If they do fire, the US will obliterate them and China will let it happen.

 

Is this becoming lose-lose for NK?

Two things.

 

1) If he is playing a blinder, he's doing it by chance, rather than design.

 

2) if your second scenario transpires, it would likely result in mass loss of life in south Korea, including many US combatants. This is assuming nuclear weapons aren't used, otherwise anything could happen.

 

But then if NK look foolish and pipe down, nothing has really been achieved has it, except for increased enmity. How is that playing  a blinder?

[Rayvin 5217]

11 minutes ago, Renton said:

Two things.

 

1) If he is playing a blinder, he's doing it by chance, rather than design.

 

2) if your second scenario transpires, it would likely result in mass loss of life in south Korea, including many US combatants. This is assuming nuclear weapons aren't used, otherwise anything could happen.

 

But then if NK look foolish and pipe down, nothing has really been achieved has it, except for increased enmity. How is that playing  a blinder?

 

Actually you're right - it's not a blinder if scenario 2 comes to pass as far as the human stakes are concerned, I meant more in a strategic sense - in terms of victory, Trump wins either way.

 

If they North Korea settles down and doesn't fire, Trump has made a statement that has had to be choked down by one of the most unstable nations in the world. A statement that Putin and the Chinese will note. Whatever you might think about the guy, if North Korea back down here, it's probably a more significant diplomatic win over them than anything Obama managed.

 

It's high risk though because obviously, if we end up in a war, that's not good.

[Meenzer 15524]

 

[Anorthernsoul 1221]

What do North Korea even offer the world?

 

They are a tiny, worthless waste of space in terms of anything yet has the world on edge due to a power hungry megalomaniac who is desperate for attention. 

 

 

Can they not just be wiped out?

[Dr Gloom 21915]

Nuke em!

[Dr Gloom 21915]

 

new avatar for @Anorthernsoul

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

24 minutes ago, Renton said:

Two things.

 

1) If he is playing a blinder, he's doing it by chance, rather than design.

 

2) if your second scenario transpires, it would likely result in mass loss of life in south Korea, including many US combatants. This is assuming nuclear weapons aren't used, otherwise anything could happen.

 

But then if NK look foolish and pipe down, nothing has really been achieved has it, except for increased enmity. How is that playing  a blinder?

 

If mass loss of life happens it's because Kim has chosen to essentially commit suicide. That's not on Trump's head. Again, the alternative is what? Just let them get on with it and have an even more dangerous stand off in 10 years time?

[Rayvin 5217]

2 minutes ago, Anorthernsoul said:

What do North Korea even offer the world?

 

They are a tiny, worthless waste of space in terms of anything yet has the world on edge due to a power hungry megalomaniac who is desperate for attention. 

 

 

Can they not just be wiped out?

 

As a political entity I agree. I think it's all about the humanitarian cost and the risk of having major powers facing off against each other.

 

Trump's plan seems to be to publically humiliate North Korea into doing something stupid or shutting up. If they give him an excuse, he wipes them out. China accepts this and we're all good.

 

I think if you can do it without collateral damage (which you can't, but for the sake of the moral argument let's assume you can), there would be no reason not to take them out. They're a repressive rogue state that is persistently aggressive to its neighbours and a destabilising force on the global arena. It's as cut and dry as it comes IMO. If you can do it without collateral damage.

[Meenzer 15524]

14 minutes ago, Anorthernsoul said:

What do North Korea even offer the world?

 

Olympic-standard weightlifters

[Renton 21612]

Buy your Samsung S8s while you can! Just don't expect any software updates for a while.

[Kid Dynamite 7025]

1 hour ago, Anorthernsoul said:

What do North Korea even offer the world?

 

They are a tiny, worthless waste of space in terms of anything yet has the world on edge due to a power hungry megalomaniac who is desperate for attention. 

 

 

Can they not just be wiped out?

 

Reminds me of a story I read on Twitter yesterday. Someone suggested the nuclear codes should be implanted near the heart of one of the presidents aides. If he wanted them he had to take a knife, kill his aide and cut the codes out himself.

 

Apparently the response was "that's ridiculous, if the president had to kill a man it might make him think twice about pressing the button"

[Tom 14011]

Yeh, imagine being that aide. You'd spark him out  

[wolfy 12]

It'll play out just like the so called cold war played out.

Just another one played on the public to keep everyone scared for nothing.

 

 

[wolfy 12]

5 minutes ago, Ant said:

  you're such a dick

 

Do you remember when you flounced in a huff?

No, but I do remember when you changed my password. I'm sure you recall that.

It's pretty hard to have a fair crack of the whip when you have people holding all the cards in a stacked hand, right?

You're admin and you can basically play forum god as and when you choose. It's a win win for people like yourself and there's nothing I can do about it.

 

Flouncing?....It depends how each person views it. I view it as abuse of power.

[wolfy 12]

11 minutes ago, Ant said:

i'm sure you think i changed your so called password, but where are the facts! 

 

 

 

 

There are no facts other than the one's that we know.

A below the belt strike that I didn't expect from a forum owner/part owner who I would have expected to be neutral.