Sir Eddie’s majestic mags v that prat Parish’s Palace - On him be pleased to pour

[Gemmill 52071]

"My eyes are the only thing I need for advanced statistical modelling."

 

Alreet Alan Brazil. 

 

 

[Toonpack 12035]

Just now, Gemmill said:

"My eyes are the only thing I need for advanced statistical modelling."

 

Alreet Alan Brazil. 

 

 

 

Any statistical model that shows we should have lost last night must have questions asked about it's validity, simple really.

[Rayvin 6401]

I am really loathe to wade into this since I'm fairly sure it's more about winding Gemmill up than the actual detail, but I do think that Isak having an XG of 0.04 on that goal is a testament to how fucking sweetly he can hit the ball compared to most players. And I would also add that now he has scored it, the XG for future such goals will be slightly higher

 

All XG is telling us is that out of all the other scenarios that matched that situation (to the limits XG tracks the details), 96 shots out of 100 didn't go in.

 

I don't know why everyone argues about this so much honestly, if you're not into XG it's fine but I find it pretty interesting from time to time.

[Gemmill 52071]

"Simple really" 

 

 

You seem to be having an awful lot of trouble wrapping your head around it though. Read toonotl's post from a page or two back where he goes through Palace's chances and their xG score. Unless you're just here to pontificate and look daft. 

 

[Rayvin 6401]

I think part of the problem is people perceive it as some sort of criticism of the team, like we didn't deserve to win or something - I think in our case, because we do play a bit differently to other sides, we're just getting into positions and shooting scenarios that other sides don't. Or that their players don't have the quality to pull off.

[ewerk 33978]

I’m a supporter of xG but Isak’s goal is a good example of its weakness. Now I may be wrong but the statistical modelling only looks at where the shot was hit from? Nine times out of ten that shot is hit into a box with bodies in it which adds further difficulty. The fact that Isak wasn’t under much pressure and had the whole goal to aim at isn’t taken into account by xG afaia.

[Gemmill 52071]

2 minutes ago, ewerk said:

I’m a supporter of xG but Isak’s goal is a good example of its weakness. Now I may be wrong but the statistical modelling only looks at where the shot was hit from? Nine times out of ten that shot is hit into a box with bodies in it which adds further difficulty. The fact that Isak wasn’t under much pressure and had the whole goal to aim at isn’t taken into account by xG afaia.

 

Depends on the model. Some just look at the position, others look at the relative positions of defenders, the keeper, etc. 

[Alex 37633]

 I definitely think it’s useful from a statistical/analytical pov. But there are obvious weaknesses to it. As has been mentioned, and in particular the point ewerk makes above. I guess though that there’s lots of situations where you can’t have nuance. E.g. the finishing ability of the person the chance falls to. Because then you introduce too much bias and human subjectivity. If you look at something like expected points, which I believe is essentially an extrapolation of xG, then it probably gives a good explanation as to why someone like Forest can’t sustain their form over the whole season. It also has the usefulness of being an easy method of winding Gemmill up  

[Toonpack 12035]

8 minutes ago, ewerk said:

I’m a supporter of xG but Isak’s goal is a good example of its weakness. Now I may be wrong but the statistical modelling only looks at where the shot was hit from? Nine times out of ten that shot is hit into a box with bodies in it which adds further difficulty. The fact that Isak wasn’t under much pressure and had the whole goal to aim at isn’t taken into account by xG afaia.

 

Exactly

[David Kelly 1380]

1 hour ago, The Fish said:

 

I think that's more an indictment of the mouth breathers they drag in front of tv cameras for the match.

Yeah but that's pretty much my point.  We know that most footballers are thick as fuck so they're never going to be able to get their head round this shit (especially when they haven't had it through their career).  So you get the likes of Redknapp last night just ridiculing it and that's only going to turn your average viewer off it even more.  Regardless I don't think most punters want chat about things like XG or XP anyway.  Its probably better suited to more niche youtube channels or separate programs on sky than your mainstream media.   MOTD etc don't have the time to be doing that sort analysis anyway.

[Gemmill 52071]

All I know is if Isak should score 75% of chances like last night's and Schar should be "shot with shit" for not scoring last night's header 3 out of 4 times, we can look forward to Isak breaking Shearer's NUFC goal record hopefully within the next season and a half, and Schar should be a comfortable second in all time NUFC scorers. 

 

We should probably win the league with a goal difference of about +300 next season as well, which will be canny. 

 

It's actually really weird that both of these haven't already happened using Toonpack's "Simple really, my eyes don't lie" model. 

[Gemmill 52071]

1 minute ago, David Kelly said:

Yeah but that's pretty much my point.  We know that most footballers are thick as fuck so they're never going to be able to get their head round this shit (especially when they haven't had it through their career).  So you get the likes of Redknapp last night just ridiculing it and that's only going to turn your average viewer off it even more.  Regardless I don't think most punters want chat about things like XG or XP anyway.  Its probably better suited to more niche youtube channels or separate programs on sky than your mainstream media.   MOTD etc don't have the time to be doing that sort analysis anyway.

 

Shearer is one of the biggest eye rollers every time xG is mentioned, the bellend. 

[Dougle 3805]

Christ on a bike, we had an utterly fucking amazing performance and result last night, sit third in the table and look at the state of this fucking thread man.

It is a joke.

[Gemmill 52071]

Shut up Dougie. 

[Howmanheyman 37700]

Fuck me this thread the last few pages with the xG shit, man. I think I'd rather have the shit puns. 

[aimaad22 4962]

No statistical forecasting model is perfect, that's not the point. The point is to provide an objective, consistent metric that can be used to evaluate performance. 

 

Also I thought we'd been over the fact that it doesnt take into account player quality. Isak may have scored 4 out of 10 from that chance for example but your AVERAGE player wouldnt be anywhere near as close and that's what the models would consider.

 

Clearly not enough accountants on this board. 

[Gemmill 52071]

5 minutes ago, Howmanheyman said:

Fuck me this thread the last few pages with the xG shit, man. I think I'd rather have the shit puns. 

 

The Venn diagram of shit punners and xG thick fucks is close to a circle. 

[thebrokendoll 10787]

22 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

Shearer is one of the biggest eye rollers every time xG is mentioned, the bellend. 

 

he'd level you with one blow.

[Gemmill 52071]

8 minutes ago, thebrokendoll said:

 

he'd level you with one blow.

 

Away and shite. I'd be dancing around him, raining punches down on his fucking slap head and his baked potato nose. 

[catmag 451]

I mean, just a thought..

 

Make an xG thread so those who don’t want to play/argue can avoid it?

 

Yes I’ve only been back 2 minutes but seems like the sensible thing to do? 
 

🤷‍♀️

[aimaad22 4962]

Clearly you've forgotten how we do things here.

 

 

Btw in case you want to disuss Tonali, obviously head on over to the Harvey Barnes thread.

[catmag 451]

Just now, aimaad22 said:

Clearly you've forgotten how we do things here.

 

 

Btw in case you want to disuss Tonali, obviously head on over to the Harvey Barnes thread.

[Rayvin 6401]

7 minutes ago, catmag said:

I mean, just a thought..

 

Make an xG thread so those who don’t want to play/argue can avoid it?

 

Yes I’ve only been back 2 minutes but seems like the sensible thing to do? 
 

🤷‍♀️

 

Fish had a thread that sort of covered that i think but uhh.. y'know, it was a fish thread. Went the normal way.

[Dr Gloom 24198]

6 hours ago, Gemmill said:

 

I genuinely think the cup final has flipped a switch for the club. We went to Wembley and we battered the best team in the country and won comfortably, and now it looks like we're taking that into every game we play.

 

Obviously you can't win every game, and we might even lose our next one, but I still think there's been a change somewhere. Last night was exactly the sort of game we usually either lose or win by 1 goal and it's nervy as fuck. We started like a train and were out of sight by half time. That's the sort of thing big, confident clubs do, and that isn't usually us. 

This is exactly where I’m at in my Newcastle WhatsApp chat with friends. There are one or two of us who are supremely confident we’ve done enough for champions league already but a majority still fear an old Newcastle-style collapse and won’t say it out loud until it’s practically mathematically secured for fear of jinxing it.
 

I keep imploring them to trust these lads. They are playing like they believe they’re one of the top five sides in the country. We should start believing them in them too. They’re playing with a swagger and I love how they’re speaking openly about qualifying for the champions league now, it feels completely different to a couple or years back when no one wanted to admit we were in with a chance. This feels different - they know they’re good enough and I’m convinced they are going to get the job done. 

[Toonpack 12035]

56 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

All I know is if Isak should score 75% of chances like last night's and Schar should be "shot with shit" for not scoring last night's header 3 out of 4 times, we can look forward to Isak breaking Shearer's NUFC goal record hopefully within the next season and a half, and Schar should be a comfortable second in all time NUFC scorers. 

 

We should probably win the league with a goal difference of about +300 next season as well, which will be canny. 

 

It's actually really weird that both of these haven't already happened using Toonpack's "Simple really, my eyes don't lie" model. 

Now you’re talking even more shite 😂😂