The Fish 11304 Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 (edited) Taken from the 'Other Games' thread because a graph in there might cause some people to have a conniption. On 27/01/2025 at 00:07, Optimistic Nut said: I reckon 27 points is a good target. That'd be 68 points which is about average for finishing 5th. If we get that and finish outside, fair play to whoever finished ahead of us. Last 10 years you've only needed 64pts to get 5th. To get to 64, we'd need 23 points from the final 15 games or ~1.5PpG, which is less than we're on right now (1.78PpG). This year, because of this very odd season, I don't know that would be enough. We'll probably need to maintain our form. Liverpool look set to win it and if they maintain this form they'll end up with around 92 points, which is about average for the Champions from the last 10 years. But, Arsenal are most likely to finish 2nd, despite only having form that would leave them on ~78pts, some 5 points less than the 10 year average. 14 points wouldn't be the biggest gap between 1st and 2nd of the last decade (that was 19pts in 17/18), but that gap in the last three seasons has been 5 points or fewer. Knocked up a quick chart to illustrate how bunched the top half of the league is this season (if teams stay true to their current PpG). Columns indicate difference from the 10yr average, e.g. Liverpool are only 0.2 points off the average for Champions, but Bournemouth are ~7pts better off than the average 7th placed team from the past decade. Bottom four are more cut adrift than usual too. 12th to 16th is about what you'd expect for bottom half sides, all with 1-2pts of the average. Edited January 28 by The Fish 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut 440 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/ Massive lead now over the rest. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 11304 Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 (edited) 2 hours ago, Optimistic Nut said: https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/ Massive lead now over the rest. Isn't there now no limit on the number of clubs allowed into the CL from a given association? Like if Man City win the CL and Chelsea win the Conference League, their spots go to the league? *More chance of Chelsea being given a CL spot for winning the Conference league, than Man Utd or Tottenham winning the Europa. Edited January 30 by The Fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 32811 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Winning the Conference League gets you into the Europa league rather than the CL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wykikitoon 22489 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 @The Fish do you have that league predicator thing you posted? Showing the % of placing in certain positions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 11304 Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wykikitoon 22489 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 11304 Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 They've also done this helpful little table too. Now, I think it's self explanatory but we'll sharp find out if that's the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 11304 Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 51 minutes ago, ewerk said: Winning the Conference League gets you into the Europa league rather than the CL. *More chance of Chelsea being given a CL spot for winning the Conference league, than Man Utd or Tottenham winning the Europa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 32811 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 And I thought you understood probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 11304 Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 5 minutes ago, ewerk said: And I thought you understood probabilities. I understand the probability of you getting a sock to the jaw is increasing dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 32811 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobinRobin 12322 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, wykikitoon said: As @ewerk says, the man's a nerd. 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 49233 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Purple is where they should be if they were performing in line with their xG. Effectively wha the Expected Points table looks like. File Forest under "having a moment" and reference Chris Wood if you need that underlining. They should be closer to mid table. If they could revert to the mean for the rest of the season, that would be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optimistic Nut 440 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Major trophy wins February 1974: Newcastle : 11 Liverpool : 10 Major trophy wins February 2025 : Newcastle: 11 Liverpool: 46 The comeback starts next month...well until Liverpool pull away with another 2-3 trophies in May, but it starts now. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebrokendoll 10154 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) @The Fish.... what do you make of all this then?.... https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c983gx5rwnro as for this, I can only imagine it's a statisticians wet dream, a sort of pie chart equivalent of salma hayak with a python round her neck.... Edited February 12 by thebrokendoll 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 32811 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Football Manager did it years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobinRobin 12322 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, thebrokendoll said: salma hayak with a python round her neck.... ... Sorry what were you saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 11304 Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 12 hours ago, thebrokendoll said: @The Fish.... what do you make of all this then?.... https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c983gx5rwnro as for this, I can only imagine it's a statisticians wet dream, a sort of pie chart equivalent of salma hayak with a python round her neck.... Just measures how likely the team in possession is to score as the game progresses. Big yellow column- Forest look dangerous Big white column - Bright do. But we know that plenty of goals come against the run of play. And we also know that pissing about with the ball 30yds out doesn't necessarily mean you're a danger to the opposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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