Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United

[ewerk 29479]

8 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

Seeding rigs what side of the draw you end up in too, generally. 

 

This is what happened on home vs away:

 

 

So last night, in the pre-draw, five of the 6 bowl 1 teams were pre-selected to get home draws. Which did give the perception of this being EVEN MORE rigged in their favour, but actually it might not have been. 

 

I can't do the maths, but it feels intuitively like there is something not right about having bowl 1 which has predetermined home and away ties, so when you pick a team out of that box, you already know where they're playing. 

 

Also, having 6 teams in one bowl, and the remaining 32 teams in another bowl and drawing the 6 bowl 1 teams first... Does that confer a further advantage to those teams? It certainly removes a lot of the randomness of WHEN they come out in the draw and what the pot of teams they can play against is. I don't know, I'm not maths clever enough to work it out. 

 

I might be talking shit here and someone who knows maths might say there's no advantage at all from either of the above. 

 

There's no advantage at all from either of the above.

[ewerk 29479]

4 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

i don't know maths but it fucking reeks. there were howls of corruption from watching the draw in the dolphin last night 

 

Aye, it's much easier to complain in ignorance than actually try and figure out the reason behind it.

[Dazzler 8444]

11 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

Seeding rigs what side of the draw you end up in too, generally. 

 

This is what happened on home vs away:

 

 

So last night, in the pre-draw, five of the 6 bowl 1 teams were pre-selected to get home draws. Which did give the perception of this being EVEN MORE rigged in their favour, but actually it might not have been. 

 

I can't do the maths, but it feels intuitively like there is something not right about having bowl 1 which has predetermined home and away ties, so when you pick a team out of that box, you already know where they're playing. 

 

Also, having 6 teams in one bowl, and the remaining 32 teams in another bowl and drawing the 6 bowl 1 teams first... Does that confer a further advantage to those teams? It certainly removes a lot of the randomness of WHEN they come out in the draw and what the pot of teams they can play against is. I don't know, I'm not maths clever enough to work it out. 

 

I might be talking shit here and someone who knows maths might say there's no advantage at all from either of the above. 

I mean, if none of those teams can be drawn against each other then there is 100% an advantage there. Liverpool having a 0% chance of drawing Man City away and vice versa is definitely advantageous.

 

The rest is debatable considering they had a 50/50 chance of being drawn at home anyway and they had a 26/32 chance of drawing one of the other teams which is around 82%.

 

My spreadsheet maths is as follows:

 

Home Draw vs Top 6	9%
Away Draw vs Top 6	9%
Home Draw vs Other	41%
Away Draw vs Other	41%

 

In short, they have an 18% advantage over the rest of the competitors which isn't nothing like.

Edited August 29 by Dazzler

[Gemmill 42591]

When I suggested someone better at maths might know the answer, I didn't in my wildest dreams imagine ewerk would view that as some sort of invitation. 

[Dazzler 8444]

I've noticed Chelsea weren't included here, presumably the conference league can get fucked.

[Gemmill 42591]

Aye only CL and EL. 

[ewerk 29479]

1 minute ago, Gemmill said:

When I suggested someone better at maths might know the answer, I didn't in my wildest dreams imagine ewerk would view that as some sort of invitation. 

 

It's pretty fucking simple. In a normal draw a team has a 50% chance of being drawn at home. Last night in the pre-draw each of the six sides had a 50% chance of being drawn at home. Ergo there was no advantage.

 

As Dazzle Dick says above, the only advantage is that they don't play one of the other European sides.

[ewerk 29479]

2 minutes ago, Dazzler said:

I've noticed Chelsea weren't included here, presumably the conference league can get fucked.

 

Conference League dates don't clash with the fourth round.

[Dr Gloom 21283]

8 minutes ago, ewerk said:

 

Aye, it's much easier to complain in ignorance than actually try and figure out the reason behind it.

 

[ewerk 29479]

Just now, Dr Gloom said:

 

 

I bet you voted Brexit too.

[Dr Gloom 21283]

10 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

Usually a pretty maths-heavy crowd in the Dolphin, I think. 

 

you don't need to know maths to know it's dodgy as fuck that all the european clubs got home draws against minnows - they're not even pretending anymore. 

 

Edited August 29 by Dr Gloom

[Dr Gloom 21283]

1 minute ago, ewerk said:

 

I bet you voted Brexit too.

 

[Renton 20414]

19 minutes ago, ewerk said:

 

Seeding has nothing to do with the number of rounds you play and everything to do with who you can play. In European and international football it's used in every tournament to keep the 'big boys' apart, hence our group of death the CL last season. It has nothing to do with whether you're home or away but neither did the draw last night.

 

Seeding isn't usually intended to advantage a team though. Teams in the CL are seeded at group stage and qualification stages. When it gets to the knockout stages, correct me if I'm wrong, there are no unfair advantages, with each team playing home and away at random. 

I mean, why the fuck is this even necessary? The top teams nearly always make it to the final rounds and final anyway, by virtue of the fact they are better. This just diminishes the chance of a cup upset which not only makes it unfair but boring too. Just scrap it, either the system or the whole competition. 

[ewerk 29479]

10 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

you don't need to know maths to know it's dodgy as fuck that all the european clubs got home draws against minnows - they're not even pretending anymore. 

 

I know you may be hung over by the two shandies you had at the Dolphin last night but all the European teams did not get home draws.

[Dr Gloom 21283]

1 minute ago, ewerk said:

 

I know you may be hung over by the two shandies you had at the Dolphin last night but all the European teams did not get home draws.

 

they all got piss easy draws though. 

 

i was surprised we didn't get argentina away tbh 

[ewerk 29479]

7 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

Seeding isn't usually intended to advantage a team though.

 

That's precisely what it's intended to do. The higher your seed the less chance you have of playing another high ranked team. That's the same in all group stages on European and international matches. After that it's whoever finishes highest in the group plays a side who finished lower in another group. It's all designed so the best sides make the latter stages.

[ewerk 29479]

Just now, Dr Gloom said:

 

they all got piss easy draws though. 

 

i was surprised we didn't get argentina away tbh 

 

Yes, the format chosen increased the chances of them facing easier sides but there was no alternative to do that due to the footballing calendar. The EFL have brought this in because of the expansion of European football, not through choice.

[Renton 20414]

4 minutes ago, ewerk said:

 

That's precisely what it's intended to do. The higher your seed the less chance you have of playing another high ranked team. That's the same in all group stages on European and international matches. After that it's whoever finishes highest in the group plays a side who finished lower in another group. It's all designed so the best sides make the latter stages.

 

Still think seeding to populate a table is a lot different to fixing the knock out stages in a single match. Well agree to disagree. Or you can agree I'm right. 

[LongTimeAdmirer 1205]

Should get rid of seeding completely for everything.

[Gemmill 42591]

What about gardening? 

[wykikitoon 19293]