Other Games 2024-25

[Craig 7277]

2 minutes ago, Howmanheyman said:

 

I watched Bilbao against Rangers at Ibrox, they're not a good side based on that match as they were playing against ten men and struggled to beat them and Rangers are dogshit these days. 

Arguably the Conference League with Betis, Fiorentina & Chelsea is a better represented competition.

[Holden McGroin 7879]

What are we hoping for tonight in Man City v Villa ? 
 

A draw would be the sensible choice but I’m perhaps leaning towards a Man City win to push Villa out of the race a bit.

[Craig 7277]

Anything but a Villa win for me. I suspect Man City might get 3rd anyway so I think it best Villa are pushed out of it. 

Current top 5 probabilities:

Liverpool - 100%
Arsenal - 100%
Man City - 84.7%

Forest - 79.2%

Newcastle - 75.3%

Villa - 31.3%

Chelsea - 29.3%

Bouremouth - 0.1%

 

As much as I'd love us to finish 3rd, the goal has to be top 5 and anything beyond that is a bonus - best way to achieve it is increase the gap between us and 6th.

[Holden McGroin 7879]

Plus I hate Villa.

[Gemmill 52140]

Aye I think I'd go Man City win as well. I'm sure the correct mathematical choice is probably a draw cos I would imagine that reduces BOTH of their probabilities to make top 5.

 

But us dropping another spot and seeing Villa move to within 1 point of us.... No thanks. 

[Craig 7277]

8 minutes ago, Holden McGroin said:

Plus I hate Villa.

They need knocking down a peg or two. Some of the shit I've seen online in the wake of their win is off the fucking scale. 

Their problem is they've been on too long a streak - all teams are due a rough patch. Their's is overdue.

[Holden McGroin 7879]

21 minutes ago, Craig said:

They need knocking down a peg or two. Some of the shit I've seen online in the wake of their win is off the fucking scale. 

Their problem is they've been on too long a streak - all teams are due a rough patch. Their's is overdue.

Aye, but they have good depth in the squad and also have a fairly easy run in.

[Dr Gloom 24210]

59 minutes ago, Holden McGroin said:

Aye, but they have good depth in the squad and also have a fairly easy run in.

 

they also have the FA cup distraction but their squad does look strong enough to deal with multiple games a week in a way that ours currently isn't. 

 

luckily for us, we have a week to prepare for each game in the remaining five game weeks with no distractions. 

[Dr Gloom 24210]

shame they can't both lose 

[Craig 7277]

As much as it pains me to say it, Villa are a decent outfit. Appointing Emery was a shrewd move, they've made some sensible purchases in recent seasons and they've got a reasonable academy producing good talent. 

I did harbour hopes the Gerrard 'experiment' might derail them significantly and it looked for a time that might be the case when he started signing his mates. The ownership of Villa were clearly smart enough to see through it though.

[aimaad22 4971]

Like Forrest, they've also flirted with PSR and seem to be better off for it, so far. 

[Craig 7277]

Difference is Forest actually got done for PSR. I don't know what the finer details of the regulations state but I'd be surprised if the award of a points deduction didn't result in their slate being wiped clean. Same with Everton.

Villa - still unsure what's going on there but let's not avoid the elephant in the room ... Chelsea. Surely their financial existence is dependent on them qualifying for the CL this season and that they cannot feasibly go another season without that income. If so, I'm rooting for Forest, Man City and Villa to ensure between them they get 2 of the CL places and we get the other. 

Chelsea's wealth was founded on corrupt Russian oligarch and have revenue streams that exist as a result of 18 years of that shitshow going on unchallenged. They should have fallen from grace in freefall just as Leeds did back in the early 2000s. Fucking disgrace that they're still able to conduct business deals like they are. It's all bullshit. 

[Dr Gloom 24210]

Does anyone know how these probability percentages are calculated?  

[Isegrim 10704]

4 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

Does anyone know how these probability percentages are calculated?  

(xG*average league place over the last 17 years)/(stadium capacity/10000)

[Craig 7277]

15 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

Does anyone know how these probability percentages are calculated?  

I'm sure The Fish is already spinning up a new spreadsheet to give you a detailed overview. 

[PaddockLad 19539]

20 minutes ago, Craig said:

Difference is Forest actually got done for PSR. I don't know what the finer details of the regulations state but I'd be surprised if the award of a points deduction didn't result in their slate being wiped clean. Same with Everton.

Villa - still unsure what's going on there but let's not avoid the elephant in the room ... Chelsea. Surely their financial existence is dependent on them qualifying for the CL this season and that they cannot feasibly go another season without that income. If so, I'm rooting for Forest, Man City and Villa to ensure between them they get 2 of the CL places and we get the other. 

Chelsea's wealth was founded on corrupt Russian oligarch and have revenue streams that exist as a result of 18 years of that shitshow going on unchallenged. They should have fallen from grace in freefall just as Leeds did back in the early 2000s. Fucking disgrace that they're still able to conduct business deals like they are. It's all bullshit. 

The premier league aren’t going to go for Chelsea or it would bring the whole corrupt parcel of shit crashing down around them. Don’t rule out Chelsea (especially) but also other clubs having dirt on PL senior management including personal shit on the likes of Masters. UEFA appear to be gunning for them and Villa so we’ll see what happens, likely fuckin nothing but you never know…

Edited 5 hours ago by PaddockLad

[Craig 7277]

Just now, PaddockLad said:

The premier league aren’t going to go for Chelsea or it would bring the whole corrupt parcel of shit crashing down around them. Don’t rule out Chelsea (especially) but also other clubs having dirt on PL senior management including personal shit on the likes of Masters. UEFA appear to be gunning for them and Villa so we’ll see what happens, likely fuckin nothing but you never know…

Sadly you're absolutely right. It's a corrupt shit-show from top to bottom. 

[Gemmill 52140]

17 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

Does anyone know how these probability percentages are calculated?  

 

They'll have models that stimulate the games thousands of times weighted for relative form, strength of opposition, etc, I imagine. 

[aimaad22 4971]

21 minutes ago, Craig said:

Difference is Forest actually got done for PSR. I don't know what the finer details of the regulations state but I'd be surprised if the award of a points deduction didn't result in their slate being wiped clean. Same with Everton.

Villa - still unsure what's going on there but let's not avoid the elephant in the room ... Chelsea. Surely their financial existence is dependent on them qualifying for the CL this season and that they cannot feasibly go another season without that income. If so, I'm rooting for Forest, Man City and Villa to ensure between them they get 2 of the CL places and we get the other. 

Chelsea's wealth was founded on corrupt Russian oligarch and have revenue streams that exist as a result of 18 years of that shitshow going on unchallenged. They should have fallen from grace in freefall just as Leeds did back in the early 2000s. Fucking disgrace that they're still able to conduct business deals like they are. It's all bullshit. 

 

I have no hope whatsoever that Chelsea will get punished in any way. They will get around PSR or other financial difficulties by selling players to Saudi on inflated prices and noone will bat an eye lid. It's just the way this corrupt PL/so called big club cabal is run.

 

 

The hope is they continue to derail themselves enough to eventually run out of all assets.

[aimaad22 4971]

As for the game today I'm with City too  Same goes for the FA Cup. We should be the only underdog less fancied club making waves winning a trophy story this season  Villa and Forrest need to be pegged down although I hope one of them beats Chelsea to the CL spot. 

 

 

Aston Villa is a good story for this league to be fair and they deserve a lot of credit. But they have spent a ton and are in PSR difficulties so lets see how that works out although that has meant with a much better squad they've handled the CL far better than us and as a result might get in again this year. UEFA need to make sure they are kicked out if rules have been broken but leave it to the football authorities to see justice served? Not holding my breath. 

[Gemmill 52140]

UEFA has set the precedent that you get fined, not kicked out of the competitions. They'll do the same with Villa and Chelsea. 

 

Villa have sailed closer to the wind on PSR than us, but we shouldn't forget that Villa had a MUCH better starting position than us. They were a professionally run club for a lot of the time that we were being run as a Sports Direct subsidiary. 

[aimaad22 4971]

Yeah well let's see what the fines are then. Large enough and they would further detioriate their future PSR position. If it's a joke amount then they further alienate other clubs plus invite more non compliance, plenty of people already questioning the farce of the Chelsea hotel/women's teams sales etc. It's all going to come to a head sooner or later. You'd have expected any reasonably competent organisation to have had a handle on this matter by now but thats a far stretch for the likes of UEFA and the PL. 

[Toonpack 12056]

10 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

UEFA has set the precedent that you get fined, not kicked out of the competitions. They'll do the same with Villa and Chelsea. 

 

Villa have sailed closer to the wind on PSR than us, but we shouldn't forget that Villa had a MUCH better starting position than us. They were a professionally run club for a lot of the time that we were being run as a Sports Direct subsidiary. 

And they sold Grealish for £100 mill

[Gemmill 52140]

3 minutes ago, Toonpack said:

And they sold Grealish for £100 mill

 

And now Duran for £75m in Jan. And yet they've still got themselves in a PSR pickle last season, filing 13 month accounts and that. 

 

It might take us selling someone for mega money to kick on. Either that or having 3 seasons on the bounce in the CL and then taking the piss a bit in sponsorships as an established CL club. 

[wykikitoon 23677]

Watkins benched after what he was like v us.