Gemmill 44872 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Just now, OTF said: This was my favourite poster. "was". Thank you for your loyalty. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobinRobin 11269 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 1 minute ago, Gemmill said: "was". Thank you for your loyalty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OTF 7295 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 15 minutes ago, Gemmill said: "was". Thank you for your loyalty. Then the internet came and posters were no longer required.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayatollah Hermione 13866 Posted May 7 Author Share Posted May 7 I remember Gemmill was CTs daughter’s favourite poster but that’s a family that watches Benidorm and sits on wooden pallets in their garden so draw your own conclusions there 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10857 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 4 hours ago, OTF said: xPoints, xG etc will never be able to wholly accurately reflect the nuances of the game, the pressure, fatigue, makings of an injury that influence a forward as they prepare to take a shot. It's merely probability based modeling based on previous data for shots taken from similar areas with similar preceding action. No consideration for the quality or positioning of the keeper. Expected points is then an extrapolation based off xG. The fact that the reality is so much less predictable is why the game continues to be interesting. Villa have a quality GK (who's an unlikable dick) and a consistent team with forwards in form. xG and xPts are just a way to represent the quality of chances made and allowed. What they show is that if one team is high up the table despite allowing more good chances than they make, that team's position is unsustainable. You mention Villa, they can only play that risky style effectively when Martinez is fit. So if he gets injured midgame, the wise and informed observer would do well to cash out before the inevitable collapse xG doesn't tell the whole story, it can't. But it can give you insight without having to pore over hours of another team's games. The point of xG isn't to consider the quality of the player, his fatigue or anything like that. It's deliberately averaging out everyone from Beto to Batistuta. to give you a baseline from which you can judge a player (or a team). Only the bottom 3 and West Ham give up more chances, the former are because they're not very good, the latter because they choose to play a counter-attack style which by it's very nature invites possession and opportunities around the West Ham box. Man Utd are bottom half for chances created too (behind the likes of Brentford and Everton.) Those two stats point to a problem with their style, it says to me that they're overreliant on their goalkeeper making unlikely saves, and over reliant on their outfield players scoring from unlikely chances. Their game against Liverpool e.g. they scored twice from 0.81xG and yet only conceded twice from 4.43xGA. Run that game 1000 times and Liverpool comfortably win it 900 times. I can't be arsed to do it right now, but I'd like to see, for each of Man Utd's goals, what value was given to the chance. I'd be pretty confident that they're scoring when they've no right to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isegrim 9775 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 1 hour ago, PaddockLad said: Hmmm…. Why not put that to a poll? 🤷🏻♂️ I know how much you like your stats. If the findings don’t suit you perhaps you could make up some arbitrary index of “likes” that would disprove the original data? Expected likes as in xL? Or in Gemmil’s case … xxxL. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 35079 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 象形 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21921 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 his xMC is big 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBass 2651 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Unlike his xDL and rDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44872 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Hey fuckheads, when you do x and two initials that only make sense in your head, the joke only makes sense in your head. And maybe one other gom that's on your SHITE level. YSFCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10857 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 2 hours ago, The Fish said: I can't be arsed to do it right now, but I'd like to see, for each of Man Utd's goals, what value was given to the chance. I'd be pretty confident that they're scoring when they've no right to. Ok, so a quick check and 38 of 52 (73%) Man Utd's goals come from chances valued at less than 0.35xG. Given a penalty is valued at 0.79xG I think it's safe to say that 0.35 counts as a half chance or worse. To go further, lets say any chance valued less than 0.1 is No Chance, 0.1-0.39 is a Half Chance, 0.39-0.79 is a Good Chance, and anything better than 0.79 is a Sitter By comparison, here's ours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44872 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Most of the outliers will be the ones Portuguese Freddie Mercury has pinged in from all areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10857 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 26 minutes ago, Gemmill said: Most of the outliers will be the ones Portuguese Freddie Mercury has pinged in from all areas. He hasn't scored a single goal from what I've arbitrarily deemed a 'Good Chance'. They're all either Penalties or <0.25 xG. Compare that to our top scorer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howmanheyman 33196 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 7 hours ago, The Fish said: xG and xPts are just a way to represent the quality of chances made and allowed. What they show is that if one team is high up the table despite allowing more good chances than they make, that team's position is unsustainable. You mention Villa, they can only play that risky style effectively when Martinez is fit. So if he gets injured midgame, the wise and informed observer would do well to cash out before the inevitable collapse xG doesn't tell the whole story, it can't. But it can give you insight without having to pore over hours of another team's games. The point of xG isn't to consider the quality of the player, his fatigue or anything like that. It's deliberately averaging out everyone from Beto to Batistuta. to give you a baseline from which you can judge a player (or a team). Only the bottom 3 and West Ham give up more chances, the former are because they're not very good, the latter because they choose to play a counter-attack style which by it's very nature invites possession and opportunities around the West Ham box. Man Utd are bottom half for chances created too (behind the likes of Brentford and Everton.) Those two stats point to a problem with their style, it says to me that they're overreliant on their goalkeeper making unlikely saves, and over reliant on their outfield players scoring from unlikely chances. Their game against Liverpool e.g. they scored twice from 0.81xG and yet only conceded twice from 4.43xGA. Run that game 1000 times and Liverpool comfortably win it 900 times. I can't be arsed to do it right now, but I'd like to see, for each of Man Utd's goals, what value was given to the chance. I'd be pretty confident that they're scoring when they've no right to. Fish's xP* is very high. (Expected paragraphs) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tdansmith 3259 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Dortmund 1 up at PSG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aimaad22 4156 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 2 minutes ago, Tdansmith said: Dortmund 1 up at PSG Hummels 😍 I could live with him and Reus lifting the CL trophy like. I suspect it has Real's name on it again though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21921 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 23 minutes ago, Tdansmith said: Dortmund 1 up at PSG I hope they hang on. They were miles better than psg were against us. PSG only qualified from our group thanks to that disgusting penalty decision against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MrRaspberryJam Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 (edited) That Sule at Dortmund amazes me. How is he a professional athlete? he’s a giant pig. Edited May 7 by MrRaspberryJam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MrRaspberryJam Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Haha. PSG have hit the woodwork six times in both legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tdansmith 3259 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Well done Borussia Dortmund Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Carr's Gloves 3894 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Fuck you psg you cheating cunts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44872 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Stick it up your khyber, Kylian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aimaad22 4156 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Ha, take that up your hairy cheese sniffing arses! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aimaad22 4156 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Bloody hell Jamie Carragher is a total twat. Glad I don't have to watch Sky. Love the completely unamused face Henry makes sat next to him too when he tries to be funny. Twat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrahamTaylor5 880 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Based on our group games, the better team (by a mile) won. I think they have been the best team that we have faced all year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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