Unai "Nee Baals" Emery's Beige Renaissance vs Eddie "Baals in a Wheelbarrow" Howe's UNSTOPPABLE Lunchtime Mags

[Ayatollah Hermione 14683]

4 hours ago, thebrokendoll said:

 

I've not seen it, but I'm gonna hazard a guess it's the exact opposite to the over confidence displayed by some in dismissing emery's villa as a team that's only beaten shite prior to the match?

I mean it's fair to say we were awful today, but villa were very, very good, it was never gonna be an easy game.

Aye but they were outperforming their XG. After looking at that and not watching a second of their actual football, I could conclude that we were going to win. They haven’t found a stat that measures confidence, extenuating factors like an opposition off the back off three straight away games and a massively in-form striker who was relishing a game against tired centre halves. Also, unrelated, when we were having our outrageous run last season, off the back of a new manager who took us from relegation up about 10 places, what did our xG and related stats look like? I wouldn’t be surprised if it was similar to Villa’s atm and we steamrolled Arsenal at home similar to how we were done today. Very dangerous to just write teams off on numbers when there’s so many more intangibles to football than that.

[RobinRobin 12486]

8 hours ago, Gemmill said:

 

You sound like you think I should have continued, and I AGREE. But moves have already taken place and I've been cast aside. VERY POOR.

 

Way I recall you departing the scene was you'd managed something pathetic like 11 from 21, and then you turned up with a tremble in your voice talking about how you didn't know if you had it in you anymore.

 

And from nowhere Toonpack (ACTUAL FUCKING TOONPACK!) snuck in, did two games, and it all got too much for him too.

 

Understandable at your ages that it all got a bit heavy. It took the sheer audacity of youth to serve up 5 wins in 6.

[Gemmill 49974]

9 hours ago, Ayatollah Hermione said:

Also, unrelated, when we were having our outrageous run last season, off the back of a new manager who took us from relegation up about 10 places, what did our xG and related stats look like? I wouldn’t be surprised if it was similar to Villa’s atm and we steamrolled Arsenal at home similar to how we were done today. 

 

 

WRONG!  Our expected goals and actual goals were broadly in line, and our actual points were 28% above expected, not 52% like Villa's. 

 

I've used the 7 matches leading up to Arsenal last season, same as I used the 7 matches leading up to the Villa match. 

 

Can we upload wav files to here cos I think that's how I'd like your apology to be delivered? 

[Toonpack 11370]

xP for heaven's sake 😂, you can expect 0, 1 or 3 points from any game, that is definitive, you cannot "expect" any fraction of points outside of that.

 

If your xG minus your xGa is negative, your expected points should be zero, if positive you would expect 3 points, if they are the same (within maybe a small tolerance) you will expect 1 point.

 

If achieving more points than you expected using that method, then you may have a statistic worthy of mention, but to say we had an xP of 2.44 but got 3 points as some sort of indicator, (oooh we got 28% more points than expected in our last 7/8 games) is stats for stats sake and frankly, utter bollocks.

[strawb 4639]

2 minutes ago, Toonpack said:

xP for heaven's sake 😂, you can expect 0, 1 or 3 points from any game, that is definitive, you cannot "expect" any fraction of points outside of that.

 

If your xG minus your xGa is negative, your expected points should be zero, if positive you would expect 3 points, if they are the same (within maybe a small tolerance) you will expect 1 point.

 

If achieving more points than you expected using that method, then you may have a statistic worthy of mention, but to say we had an xP of 2.44 but got 3 points as some sort of indicator, (oooh we got 28% more points than expected in our last 7/8 games) is stats for stats sake and frankly, utter bollocks.

Do you know what averages are? 

[Toonpack 11370]

1 minute ago, strawb said:

Do you know what averages are? 

 

Yes, and also when and when not to use them 🙄

 

[Gemmill 49974]

 

[PaddockLad 19013]

Is there a stat for how unremittingly fuckin shit we were yesterday? How much more shitterer we performed for 90 minutes than any of the other shit Villa have beaten in the last couple of shitting months? We were a load of fuckin shit man, that’s the key stat . SHIT 

 

Thats the worse performance we’ve had under Howe since he became manager by some distance. I thought after an error strewn first half EH would get them in and sort things out like he did v Brentford and West Ham, give it 10, bring Wilson, Miggy and Longy on and we’d get more control in the middle, nick a goal and get away with a point from a below par performance . Instead Watkins ripped us a new arsehole.  Not seen a performance as good as that for a long time. His movement was fuckin sensational. I don’t think Schar and Botman knew what to do against him . The space he got was criminal mind, no one could track him. Buendia and McGinn made our midfield look pedestrian and lethargic . When we did get on the ball we could barely string a couple of passes together but there were also the usual 3/4 decent chances missed by us . Trippier could’ve been subbed at half time for being the worst player on the pitch. I could go on but I won’t other than to say both goalies were good, especially Pope who prevented real embarrassment.
 

My turn to drive yesterday and we were stood in the last row before the line of police and stewards who separated our section from the Villa fans in the rest of the stand. That, as you can imagine, was fuckin shit too  

[Toonpack 11370]

Missed Longstaff and his work rate big time IMO

[Toonpack 11370]

45 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

 

Yes, yes it is statto

[Dr Gloom 23642]

58 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

Is there a stat for how unremittingly fuckin shit we were yesterday? How much more shitterer we performed for 90 minutes than any of the other shit Villa have beaten in the last couple of shitting months? We were a load of fuckin shit man, that’s the key stat . SHIT 

 

Thats the worse performance we’ve had under Howe since he became manager by some distance. I thought after an error strewn first half EH would get them in and sort things out like he did v Brentford and West Ham, give it 10, bring Wilson, Miggy and Longy on and we’d get more control in the middle, nick a goal and get away with a point from a below par performance . Instead Watkins ripped us a new arsehole.  Not seen a performance as good as that for a long time. His movement was fuckin sensational. I don’t think Schar and Botman knew what to do against him . The space he got was criminal mind, no one could track him. Buendia and McGinn made our midfield look pedestrian and lethargic . When we did get on the ball we could barely string a couple of passes together but there were also the usual 3/4 decent chances missed by us . Trippier could’ve been subbed at half time for being the worst player on the pitch. I could go on but I won’t other than to say both goalies were good, especially Pope who prevented real embarrassment.
 

My turn to drive yesterday and we were stood in the last row before the line of police and stewards who separated our section from the Villa fans in the rest of the stand. That, as you can imagine, was fuckin shit too  

it was the manner of the defeat that was so disappointing. We were outclassed and outfought for the first time this season 

[Toonpack 11370]

Been coming for awhile I think. Signs been there in games for a while, immediately coming to mind are - 2nd Half in semi with Soton, Cup Final, first half Brentford etc.

 

We managed to be shite for a full 90 mins yesterday, We've looked shaky at the back for a while now - Trippier was poor again (started when he gave the ball away for their first hit on the woodwork), Botman been poor for a few weeks, Burn been found out I think, Schar's been OK. Midfield over-run and LOTS of space exploited between them and the back 4.

 

Longstaff back will help, but we really MUST put Spurs away, we don't need a blip now, especially as squad is all but fully fit.

 

9 points from last 4 games, three of which were away, not to be sniffed at,

[Renton 23683]

51 minutes ago, Toonpack said:

Been coming for awhile I think. Signs been there in games for a while, immediately coming to mind are - 2nd Half in semi with Soton, Cup Final, first half Brentford etc.

 

We managed to be shite for a full 90 mins yesterday, We've looked shaky at the back for a while now - Trippier was poor again (started when he gave the ball away for their first hit on the woodwork), Botman been poor for a few weeks, Burn been found out I think, Schar's been OK. Midfield over-run and LOTS of space exploited between them and the back 4.

 

Longstaff back will help, but we really MUST put Spurs away, we don't need a blip now, especially as squad is all but fully fit.

 

9 points from last 4 games, three of which were away, not to be sniffed at,

 

We had a semi-decent spell early in the second half. I think the difference though here and the other games you mention is that Villa were by far the best team we have played against under Howes tenure yesterday. Credit where its due. I think they would have beaten anyone on the day, and if I'm honest, and completely changing what I said last week, I am more worried about them beating us to top 4 than Spurs. I think the gap will be enough though.

[Renton 23683]

13 hours ago, wykikitoon said:

Just found out my (now ex) fave Rhinos player

 

Boring cunt.

[thebrokendoll 10281]

1 hour ago, Toonpack said:

Been coming for awhile I think. Signs been there in games for a while, immediately coming to mind are - 2nd Half in semi with Soton, Cup Final, first half Brentford etc.

 

We managed to be shite for a full 90 mins yesterday, We've looked shaky at the back for a while now - Trippier was poor again (started when he gave the ball away for their first hit on the woodwork), Botman been poor for a few weeks, Burn been found out I think, Schar's been OK. Midfield over-run and LOTS of space exploited between them and the back 4.

 

Longstaff back will help, but we really MUST put Spurs away, we don't need a blip now, especially as squad is all but fully fit.

 

9 points from last 4 games, three of which were away, not to be sniffed at,

 

I think in the run of 3 away games against a west ham team fighting relegation, (who were the better side for large parts of the game at sjp and fully deserved a draw) a european chasing team at brentford and an aston villa side very much on a run an no doubt motivated to beat a club above them, then I probably would've took 5 points if offered beforehand. we got 6 and therefore I can't really be overly disappointed. other than with yesterday's performance, which was fucking woeful.

I'd also add that I thought pope looked like he's still suffering from a lack of confidence since the liverpool debacle anywhere outside the six yard box.

I always thought yesterday's game was the one we were mostly likely to lose, no matter what any mathematical analysis, pie charts or graphs suggested otherwise. and so it proved to be. we were well and truly humped by a team apparently fortunate to be in their current position on the back of only having played shit clubs recently! 

said last week I think on the 'other games' thread that villa looked a decent bet at 11/1 to finish top 6 and I'd have a tenner on it. never got round to it.... they're 5/2 now. 

 

[Dr Gloom 23642]

6 points from three tough away games is a good return. 
 

Better than a win and a couple of draws, which we would probably have all taken, but it feels worse because of the manner of the defeat. 
 

If we dispatch spurs next week it can be quickly forgotten. 

[Howmanheyman 36607]

Just watched motd and we mustn't be a big club yet as they only praised villa and didn't go into how shit we were. (They did it with Tottenham and Chelsea. They'll do it today as well if forest beat Man United). 

[Monkeys Fist 45151]

25 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

When we dispatch spurs next week it can be quickly forgotten

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 4269]

1 hour ago, Renton said:

 

We had a semi-decent spell early in the second half. I think the difference though here and the other games you mention is that Villa were by far the best team we have played against under Howes tenure yesterday. Credit where its due. I think they would have beaten anyone on the day, and if I'm honest, and completely changing what I said last week, I am more worried about them beating us to top 4 than Spurs. I think the gap will be enough though.

Better than, Arsenal, Man City and Man Utd? Are you having a laugh? We were shit Villa weren’t but they are not the best team we have played in a season and a half. They will not be in the top 4 next season.

[Renton 23683]

Just now, Kevin Carr's Gloves said:

Better than, Arsenal, Man City and Man Utd? Are you having a laugh? We were shit Villa weren’t but they are not the best team we have played in a season and a half. They will not be in the top 4 next season.

 

On that day I said. And yeah, they played much better than any ManU team we have played this season, they were better than Arsenal, and better than Man City when we played them at home imo (struggling to remember the away leg tbh, might have missed it). Better than either game we played and lost against Liverpool too. They gave us no space or time, they bullied us, and they were clinical. Yeah, we were poor but had Villa played like this all season they would have been near the top of the table. They aren't mainly because of Gérard but also because they won't always play that well, which is the difference between good teams (us and Villa) and champions (Man City).

 

Fortunately for us we couldn't have a better side to play against next match than Spurs. I think we'll win that and get back on track. I think though people are being OTT on the criticism of our team which isn't helpful. 

 

[aimaad22 4690]

They were not better than Arsenal or City man! They were very good but we were also very very poor. Huge spaces in midfield, Bruno and Joe completely off it, Willock looked clueless. CBs failing to deal with balls over the top, Trippier having his worst game in months. I get Villa playing so well made them look like that, but had we been at our usual performance levels it would have been a much closer game. Like Arsenal away was. It was a bad day at the office, and its a very tough league. 

 

Villa are in fine form with a good coach. They'll be back down to earth soon though as multiple teams in this league over the years have. And once they run into a bit of bad form, the lack of cojones on Emery will come to the fore. Not a club we need to be worrying about in the coming years, they can kid themselves all they like, they are in the Everton category more than anything else.

[Renton 23683]

17 minutes ago, aimaad22 said:

They were not better than Arsenal or City man! They were very good but we were also very very poor. Huge spaces in midfield, Bruno and Joe completely off it, Willock looked clueless. CBs failing to deal with balls over the top, Trippier having his worst game in months. I get Villa playing so well made them look like that, but had we been at our usual performance levels it would have been a much closer game. Like Arsenal away was. It was a bad day at the office, and its a very tough league. 

 

Villa are in fine form with a good coach. They'll be back down to earth soon though as multiple teams in this league over the years have. And once they run into a bit of bad form, the lack of cojones on Emery will come to the fore. Not a club we need to be worrying about in the coming years, they can kid themselves all they like, they are in the Everton category more than anything else.

 

Were we shit or did they make us look shit? Lost count of how many times I've heard mackems say how lucky we are because our opposition have been shit. This is no different to me. We had an awful game but it was Villa's approach to the game that fucked us up. For me they were much better than Arsenal were at the Emirates, then again, our approach to that game was entirely different. 

 

Emery is a top class manager. Since he joined Villa he' gained 38 points with a GD of 13. During the same period Howe has achieved 32 points with a GD of 10. Yes, tgere may be an element of new manager bounce but that is pretty impressive considering the team he inherited. Villa's revival and even the way they play is Howesque imo. His limitation at Villa will be funding I suspect. I'm more than happy with Howe though and think he will be a much better fit for our club and ambitions going forward. I don't think Villa are a long term threat because of this. 

Edited April 16, 2023 by Renton

[aimaad22 4690]

27 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

Were we shit or did they make us look shit? 

 

As I was saying probably a mix of both. Botman and Schar have been eating up those long balls for fun all season. And our midfield balance was just way off, perhaps to do with Longstaff missing. You can't deny those were factors too, it wasn't just Villa blowing us off the park as if they were prime Pep Barca.

 

We shouldn't read too much into it. I mean we definitely got beaten by the much better team on the day, no doubt. But that is a reality of this league, even the 'top 4' will struggle against good sides in form. Its the recovery and consistency over the season that proves CL pedigree. 

 

[Rosco 878]

Well we can't be any worse v Spurs......can we

[Christmas Tree 5105]

I haven’t been able to look at anything football related since the final whistle. Was / Is the conclusion that most of our players had a really bad day or did Eddie get his tactics wrong?