Longhaired Tommy Spankbank's Big Betting Brentford vs Eddie Howe's UNDENIABLE Hammer-Smashing Mags

[Gemmill 44804]

Piece of piss this thread starting business BTW. Dunno what was giving you lads so much trouble the rest of the season.

 

 

 

 

 

[Christmas Tree 4725]

29 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

Get in. Right, I’m off on a Lakeland bender with @Christmas Tree

Too late. Been there done that. Fucked  

[Polarboy 2311]

18 minutes ago, Ginolaandtonic said:

What was up with Gordon at the end? He looked proper pissed off with Eddie

 

Maybe Gordon thought he was hooking him for giving away a free kick and was annoyed about that. Whether that's why Howe subbed him or he was just trying to play out the clock I don't know. The only other sub options for Howe were Bruno, one of the defenders, or one of the other players that had been subbed on. But I think in general players who've been subbed on don't take well to being subbed off. As long as Gordon doesn't overreact it's better that he's annoyed being subbed off than having no reaction. 

[Christmas Tree 4725]

What a week. Tremendous 9 points from the boys.

[Diego21 2135]

I am already imagining next year's UCL draw with Newcastle in the same group as Real Madrid and with many of you coming to visit me.

[Polarboy 2311]

If you were conspiratorial your head would be spinning with the shite we've had to put up with today with VAR in our match, and Spuds being handed their game by the officials. 

[Howmanheyman 33121]

What a massive three points that was, they were excellent early on, that Schade or whatever he's called was their MotM by a mile and we definitely got out of jail but...... How the fuck is that a penalty, man? we deserved to be behind but not by that, second half we blew them away which is to our immense credit, being 1-0 down away to a team who has only lost once at home whilst playing shite? Fucking tremendous. Should've been game over but officials who are fucking shit scared to make a call against the cunt 6 have no such qualms at present v us or Brighton apparently and made us hang on a bit. Wilson's disallowed goal was even worse than the penalty against isak. Fucking disgraceful. Can't speak higher about the squad and management, fucking robbed blind but still came out on top, take a fucking bow lads. 👏

[Diego21 2135]

 

 

 

And if the referee had whistled this very clear penalty... The day could have been perfect.

[Howmanheyman 33121]

3 minutes ago, Diego21 said:

I am already imagining next year's UCL draw with Newcastle in the same group as Real Madrid and with many of you coming to visit me.

  

If you can get a ticket that'll be champion.

[Gemmill 44804]

4 minutes ago, Diego21 said:

 

 

 

And if the referee had whistled this very clear penalty... The day could have been perfect.

 

That's scandalous as a standalone incident. But then compare it with the one they gave against Isak today and the amount of fucking time they took making their mind up. 

 

VAR should be a piece of piss to get right and these clowns are fucking it up every week. 

[Diego21 2135]

3 minutes ago, Howmanheyman said:

  

If you can get a ticket that'll be champion.

It is impossible to get a ticket to the Real Madrid stadium if you do not go with an organized group of the visiting team through the club.

There are no tickets for sale (and also, they have the stadium with the lowest capacity due to works).

I tried to go against Celtic in the group stage, and there were only VIP tickets on sale for prices that are unaffordable to me.

[Renton 21570]

15 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

Piece of piss this thread starting business BTW. Dunno what was giving you lads so much trouble the rest of the season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dr Gloom 21912]

18 minutes ago, wykikitoon said:

In Bowness. It's swimming with gash

I’m ten minutes up the road! Genuinely half tempted to sack off the wife and kids and get one on

[Diego21 2135]

The match.

Superb Pope. Superb. He kept us in the game in the first half.

I didn't like the first part at all. Toney always hurts us a lot. The team played badly. He was asleep. We never had dominance.

The second part is another story. Turning around a game like this, difficult, like a big team that knows how to play in these games.

The negative: I love Botman, but I think that when he trusts himself and thinks he is better than he is, he makes very serious mistakes. Today he got one. And this year he has had a few more. They are few, but they are serious. He needs to have his feet on the ground. Maybe some competition wouldn't hurt.

The positive: Howe said that Wilson and Isak could play together... And boy. They can. Today they have shown it. In addition, the two are in a very good moment.

Without Almiron and Maxi, I think I would have them start the next game, with Willock behind them.

Isak is in better shape every day. I think he can mark an era in this club.

[Alex 35059]

2 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

I’m ten minutes up the road! Genuinely half tempted to sack off the wife and kids and get one on

Bowness is Blackpool-on-Lakes like. Get yourself a Kiss My Quick… hat (I have actually seen them in sale there  ) 

[Renton 21570]

Now I don't want to be petty. Alright I do. We have a point more than the mackems with a massively superior GD. We've played 29 games compared with their 40 games. Hmm, what else? Oh yeah, we are third in the PREMIERSHIP whilst those losers are in the second tier. 

 

[Gemmill 44804]

Because I know you love this stuff lads, here's the XG Field Map: 

 

 

...and here's the xG timing chart: 

 

[Dr Gloom 21912]

1 minute ago, Gemmill said:

Because I know you love this stuff lads, here's the XG Field Map: 

 

 

...and here's the xG timing chart: 

 

 

Sounds like we got slightly lucky then? 
 

I was out walking so missed the game. Sounds like an eventful one 

[Polarboy 2311]

Having thought about it, it may be better that Spuds won today in any case. Brighton have more games to play, are a better team, and are in better form. Spuds are just as likely to lose or draw to Bournemouth next week than they are to win. I mean a draw would have been ideal, but a Spuds win might actually be the second best outcome. 

[Dr Gloom 21912]

1 minute ago, Polarboy said:

Having thought about it, it may be better that Spuds won today in any case. Brighton have more games to play, are a better team, and are in better form. Spuds are just as likely to lose or draw to Bournemouth next week than they are to win. I mean a draw would have been ideal, but a Spuds win might actually be the second best outcome. 

100% I’m worried about Brighton and Villa than Spurs 

[Gemmill 44804]

7 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

Sounds like we got slightly lucky then? 
 

I was out walking so missed the game. Sounds like an eventful one 

 

Aye.  A new stat for you all - Expected Points.  Basically take all the individual shots and their associated xG score for each side.  Run them all 10,000 time in simulations to see what the distribution of results (W, D, L) would be for each side, and that gives you your expected points. 

 

And this is how today played out: 

 

 

This is the top of the league sorted by xP.  Some quite interesting positions... Arsenal running almost 12 points better than they should be.  Brighton running almost 8 points worse than they should be.  We were more or less bang on with expectation before today's match. 

 

Man United and Spurs also running 7 points better than expectation. 

 

Edited April 8, 2023 by Gemmill

[Gemmill 44804]

Just now, Dr Gloom said:

100% I’m worried about Brighton and Villa than Spurs 

 

Villa?!  FUCKING VILLA?!  Do you think there's monsters under your bed too? 

[Gemmill 44804]

xP from Spurs v Brighton today was 0.63 v 2.11 BTW.

 

So Brighton got well and truly had by VAR.

Edited April 8, 2023 by Gemmill

[Renton 21570]

5 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

100% I’m worried about Brighton and Villa than Spurs 

 

Villa? We're 9 points ahead of them (effectively 10 with GD) with a game in hand. We stuffed them at SJP. Got a whole week to rest before playing them. 

 

Brighton are a bigger concern, but really it's in our own hands and I completely have faith in Howe. We don't need to look behind our shoulders.

[Renton 21570]

10 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

Aye.  A new stat for you all - Expected Points.  Basically take all the individual shots and their associated xG score for each side.  Run them all 10,000 time in simulations to see what the distribution of results (W, D, L) would be for each side, and that gives you your expected points. 

 

And this is how today played out: 

 

 

This is the top of the league sorted by xP.  Some quite interesting positions... Arsenal running almost 12 points better than they should be.  Brighton running almost 8 points worse than they should be.  We were more or less bang on with expectation before today's match. 

 

Man United and Spurs also running 7 points better than expectation. 

 

 

Stochastic boot strapping. Garbage in, garbage out.