The Return of Eddie Howe's Shithousing, High Pressing Fucking NETBUSTERS vs Lopetegui's Lupine Logmunchers

[Holden McGroin 6583]

19 minutes ago, ackas said:

Whoever Eddie picks for me 

 

[Alex 35079]

45 minutes ago, Holden McGroin said:

I suspect he'll start Wilson...

Don’t really mind that if Isak starts too. If it’s no Isak and Wilson and Almiron both starting again it seems like a proper blind spot on Howe’s part though. You can understand a lack of rotation when there aren’t options. But when there are and people need rested due to a lack of form (and the results are suffering) it starts to be a concern. 

[Dr Gloom 21921]

57 minutes ago, Toonpack said:

Isak/Wilson/ASM for me

 

catts for me like 

[Dr Gloom 21921]

22 minutes ago, Alex said:

Don’t really mind that if Isak starts too. If it’s no Isak and Wilson and Almiron both starting again it seems like a proper blind spot on Howe’s part though. You can understand a lack of rotation when there aren’t options. But when there are and people need rested due to a lack of form (and the results are suffering) it starts to be a concern. 

 

it feels like as fans, we can all agree on what the problem is but the manager is seeing things differently. 

 

all managers have their favourite players and are loyal to those who have performed for them in the past when they're in the middle of a bad spell.  nothing wrong with that, of course, but isak is a £60m striker and he impresses every time he comes on. i don't know wtf is up with wilson tbh but he doesn't look close to playing his way back into form 

[ewerk 30609]

It’s possible that Isak’s hamstring isn’t allowing him to play the full 90 minutes.

[OTF 7295]

52 minutes ago, Alex said:

Don’t really mind that if Isak starts too. If it’s no Isak and Wilson and Almiron both starting again it seems like a proper blind spot on Howe’s part though. You can understand a lack of rotation when there aren’t options. But when there are and people need rested due to a lack of form (and the results are suffering) it starts to be a concern. 

Almiron is copping a fair bit of flack here, but for mine he's a victim of our attack too often coming down the right through Trippier and him. If we had more balance down the left with an overlapping fullback we'd be less predictable and harder to set up defensively against. I can't see Howe dropping him either. Wilson is another story altogether, if he finishes that chance against City it's a different story but that confirms just how far he is from his best and so he must be rested because without the ability to finish he offers us nothing.

Edited March 9, 2023 by OTF

[Alex 35079]

2 hours ago, OTF said:

Almiron is copping a fair bit of flack here, but for mine he's a victim of our attack too often coming down the right through Trippier and him. If we had more balance down the left with an overlapping fullback we'd be less predictable and harder to set up defensively against. I can't see Howe dropping him either. Wilson is another story altogether, if he finishes that chance against City it's a different story but that confirms just how far he is from his best and so he must be rested because without the ability to finish he offers us nothing.

I agree with you tbh but I feel like resting Almiron might be beneficial because he works so hard, has been virtually ever present and also because teams have sussed out everything was coming down the right. Agree Wilson’s lack of form is more problematic but I think he’d benefit from playing with Isak. If it was down to me I’d drop Wilson however 

[Howmanheyman 33192]

2 hours ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

it feels like as fans, we can all agree on what the problem is but the manager is seeing things differently. 

 

all managers have their favourite players and are loyal to those who have performed for them in the past when they're in the middle of a bad spell.  nothing wrong with that, of course, but isak is a £60m striker and he impresses every time he comes on. i don't know wtf is up with wilson tbh but he doesn't look close to playing his way back into form 

 

👀 

[aimaad22 4156]

2 hours ago, OTF said:

Almiron is copping a fair bit of flack here, but for mine he's a victim of our attack too often coming down the right through Trippier and him. If we had more balance down the left with an overlapping fullback we'd be less predictable and harder to set up defensively against. I can't see Howe dropping him either. Wilson is another story altogether, if he finishes that chance against City it's a different story but that confirms just how far he is from his best and so he must be rested because without the ability to finish he offers us nothing.

 

Agree with that largely, and Targett getting back to full fitness should help with that. But I think as good as Miggy can be on his day he will always be a limited player. Extremely one footed, and far too often seems afraid of being direct and taking on defenders. One of the changes in his game last year to me was he seemed more confident taking on and running at people, seems to have reverted to old ways recently. 

[OTF 7295]

5 hours ago, Alex said:

I agree with you tbh but I feel like resting Almiron might be beneficial because he works so hard, has been virtually ever present and also because teams have sussed out everything was coming down the right. Agree Wilson’s lack of form is more problematic but I think he’d benefit from playing with Isak. If it was down to me I’d drop Wilson however 

 

You're right that he might benefit from a rest, and possibly coming on as a substitute with fresh legs, I'm just worried who we would replace him with and what their defensive effort would be like compared to Miggy's. Who would you play in his stead?

[OTF 7295]

5 hours ago, aimaad22 said:

 

Agree with that largely, and Targett getting back to full fitness should help with that. But I think as good as Miggy can be on his day he will always be a limited player. Extremely one footed, and far too often seems afraid of being direct and taking on defenders. One of the changes in his game last year to me was he seemed more confident taking on and running at people, seems to have reverted to old ways recently. 

 

He wants space to take on defenders and when they know what we're going to do they can take that space away. With Bruno he gets more varied service, he's missed having him. As you say his biggest limitation is how one footed he is, which he's never going to overcome, no doubt got away with it when be was younger due to his speed.

[The Fish 10857]

19 hours ago, OTF said:

Almiron is copping a fair bit of flack here, but for mine he's a victim of our attack too often coming down the right through Trippier and him. If we had more balance down the left with an overlapping fullback we'd be less predictable and harder to set up defensively against. I can't see Howe dropping him either. Wilson is another story altogether, if he finishes that chance against City it's a different story but that confirms just how far he is from his best and so he must be rested because without the ability to finish he offers us nothing.

Read a piece in the Athletic about this very thing. We got so much joy in that little pocket of space between the lines of midfield and defence and between fullback and centre back positions.

 

Bruno would take up that position and link with Trippier and Almiron to fashion a through ball for the cross or shot. Teams have gotten wise to it and are overloading that position to nullify the threat. Unfortunately we don't have the same balance of abilities on the left flank, so despite switching the play more than most we still focus on this as the main weapon in our arsenal. 

 

I think you're right that if we had an overlapping fullback on the left it would balance the threat out a bit. 

 

It'll also help when the team collectively find their shooting boots.

[Toonpack 9399]

15 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Read a piece in the Athletic about this very thing. We got so much joy in that little pocket of space between the lines of midfield and defence and between fullback and centre back positions.

 

Bruno would take up that position and link with Trippier and Almiron to fashion a through ball for the cross or shot. Teams have gotten wise to it and are overloading that position to nullify the threat. Unfortunately we don't have the same balance of abilities on the left flank, so despite switching the play more than most we still focus on this as the main weapon in our arsenal. 

 

I think you're right that if we had an overlapping fullback on the left it would balance the threat out a bit. 

 

It'll also help when the team collectively find their shooting boots.

 

Now THAT is a meaningful graphic/representation of data.

 

Hopefully ASM plays to his ability, because that would open up/increase threat from the left and reduce pressure on our right.

[wykikitoon 20137]

[The Fish 10857]

1 hour ago, Toonpack said:

 

Now THAT is a meaningful graphic/representation of data.

 

Hopefully ASM plays to his ability, because that would open up/increase threat from the left and reduce pressure on our right.

Did you read the whole article? Lots of data driven fun things. 

[Toonpack 9399]

6 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Did you read the whole article? Lots of data driven fun things. 

 

Nope paywalled (and 12ft fecked)

[Toonpack 9399]

Eddie says Isak still not ready for a full 90, if that's the case, I'd start him and take off later, not the other way around.

[ackas 311]

5 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Did you read the whole article? Lots of data driven fun things. 

Dont mention the xG. I mentioned it once, but think I got away with it.

[ewerk 30609]

5 minutes ago, Toonpack said:

Eddie says Isak still not ready for a full 90, if that's the case, I'd start him and take off later, not the other way around.

 

21 hours ago, ewerk said:

It’s possible that Isak’s hamstring isn’t allowing him to play the full 90 minutes.

Called it! There’s no way Howe doesn’t give him more of a run out if he’s fully fit.

[Dr Gloom 21921]

weird.

 

isak looks sharp. it's wilson, of the two, he looks short of match fitness. i'd be tempted to start isak, even if he isn't fit enough to play the whole game, with a view to maybe giving him 60 minutes and wilson half an hour instead of the other way round. 

Edited March 10, 2023 by Dr Gloom

[The Fish 10857]

Quote

Eddie Howe has transformed Newcastle’s passing — but why have they stopped scoring?

By Jacob Whitehead

Mar 8, 2023

52

---

For all the notions that football is a game of infinite variance, sometimes it just feels like Groundhog Day.

Three weekends, three successive 2-0 losses for Newcastle United.

Of course, there is mitigation. The defeats have come against arguably three of the best four sides in the country. Newcastle have looked good in possession for long stretches of each match. There have been red cards, deflections, and distractions.

But Newcastle have still only scored twice in their last five games, and are the lowest-scoring side in the division in 2023. Eddie Howe has transformed Newcastle since taking over: in spirit, in resoluteness and in attacking potency. This slump is deep — it is their worst goalscoring run since 2020-21, when they scored just twice in eight games between Boxing Day and January 26.

Sometimes, however, you need to step back to see further.

This time last year, Newcastle were 14th in the Premier League. One month before that, they were 17th. Despite a run of five winless league fixtures, they are still sixth in the Premier League, with games in hand on the teams above them.

So, can Howe’s revolution be viewed as part of a bigger picture? This is how Newcastle’s passing has been transformed — and the factors that are influencing the downturn in the past month.

---

Under Steve Bruce, Newcastle and possession were like princes and peasants: when they met it was usually accidental, the results were ugly and someone would lose their head.

In 2020-21, Bruce’s final full season in charge, their share of possession was only 38 per cent. Only West Bromwich Albion — relegated with three games of the season remaining — had a lower number.

They completed the second-fewest progressive passes in the division while attempting the ninth-most long balls. A passing strategy? Get the ball to Miguel Almiron or Allan Saint-Maximin and let them dribble as far as possible. Formational flux did not help their cause.

Newcastle passing since 2020-21

	PROGRESSIVE PASSING RANK	LONG BALLS ATTEMPTED	PASSES INTO PENALTY AREA	KEY PASSES	EXPECTED ASSISTS (XA)
2020-21 (Bruce)	20th	9th	19th	16th	20th
2021-22 (Bruce/Howe)	20th	12th	20th	15th	19th
2022-23 (Howe)	7th	11th	4th	7th	5th

This season? Newcastle are seventh in possession share, with the seventh-highest number of progressive passes. The only teams above them are the Big Six — with Brighton & Hove Albion replacing Manchester United.

Bruce’s decisions were pragmatic. The defence was solid — and that kept Newcastle up. But this makes the job Howe has done all the more impressive. Despite taking over a team which appeared destined for life in the Championship, Newcastle did not just fight their way out of trouble: they played their way out of it.

Consider the pitch map above, which illustrates where Newcastle have played their passes this season, compared to 2021-22. They simply play more passes everywhere — especially on the right-hand side where the triumvirate of Kieran Trippier, Almiron, and Bruno Guimaraes has transformed the attack.

 

Trippier is third among all Premier League players for passes into the penalty area (behind Kevin De Bruyne and Martin Odegaard) and is second for key passes (behind only De Bruyne).

Fabian Schar, who plays higher than centre-back partner Sven Botman, is also heavily involved in the intricacy on the right-hand side. Five of the team’s six leaders in progressive passes are right-side dominant.

It is not just a matter of frequency, but also of quality. In 2022-23, the value of Newcastle’s passing has not been equally distributed, with the half-space on the right-hand side bearing the brunt of the creative weight.

So what’s significant about this?

The exploitation of this area is reserved for potent sides. Explored in more depth here, it combines the advantage of the centre with a natural angle that encourages dangerous diagonal passes. The only other teams who like to progress the ball in the half-space more? Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United.

Two goals against Fulham demonstrate its efficiency. On October 1, Newcastle are already 1-0 up, and pushing for a second. Look at the triangle between Trippier, Guimaraes, and Almiron.

Afforded space on the edge of the box, Guimaraes has the time to scoop a pass over Layvin Kurzawa into the path of the onrushing Almiron, who applies a marvellous finish.

Then, last month, a triangle between Trippier, Jacob Murphy and Sean Longstaff opens space for the latter. He floats it towards the far post, where Callum Wilson nods the ball across goal for Alexander Isak to score a late winner.

Newcastle’s passing strategy focuses on trying to open up this space — predominantly through the relationship between Howe’s tight wingers and overlapping fullbacks. Almiron and Trippier are perfectly suited to these roles; Joelinton and Dan Burn less so.

 

Every opposing team knows this tactic, so Newcastle attempt to dupe them by switching the play until the defence switches off. Newcastle have played 95 switches this season.

The Athletic’s Ahmed Walid examined this in January, exploring how Newcastle load one side to draw the defence over, before switching crossfield to an overlapping full-back. He will then cross towards the back post, which remains swarmed by the original numbers on the far side.

This tactic is still part of Newcastle’s basic attacking shape. Take this example, from early in the second half against Manchester United. Joelinton wins the ball on the left, with Wilson pulling deep.

After sucking in the midfield, he releases the ball to Guimaraes, who has two choices: he can either slip the ball through a central space to Almiron who is cutting inside or give the ball outside to the overlapping Trippier, running into space vacated by Luke Shaw.

This is the high-value pass and, on this occasion, he opts for Trippier, who is able to swing a ball into the far post where Newcastle have a two on two.

The move explains an interesting wrinkle in Newcastle’s passing metrics. Though they are now in the league’s upper echelons for pass frequency, the only areas in which they pass more than the league average are near the opponents’ goal.

It shows that, at this point in their development, they are a hybrid team. They progress directly, ensuring the ball gets far away from other defence quickly but attempt to form openings indirectly once when in the final third.

In this sense, Newcastle are obsessed with the box — but since the World Cup break, it does not love them back. What has changed?

On the one hand, finishing. Only one team in world football (Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City) are regularly capable of passing the ball into the net. Chances have to be scored.

 

The Athletic’s Chris Waugh and Mark Carey explored this underperformance last week, arguing that Newcastle are creating the same number of opportunities, but that these are not being taken.

Striker Wilson is at the forefront of this, missing another golden opportunity on Saturday against City.

Of course, short-term factors such as personnel offer some explanation. Guimaraes’ red card in the Carabao Cup semi-final second-leg — and subsequent three-match suspension — upset Newcastle’s rhythm. In possession, Guimaraes acts as the metronome; the conduit through which Newcastle’s switches flow.

Though Longstaff offers excellent defensive coverage, his ability in possession failed to match the Brazilian’s. Granted, Newcastle’s attacking shape was not helped by Nick Pope’s early red card against Liverpool — or the glut of injuries suffered against Bournemouth.

Formationally, Howe was forced to abandon his 4-3-3 in both these fixtures, while he also shifted to a 4-2-3-1 in the Carabao Cup final, searching for a way to overcome a 2-0 deficit at half-time.

The graphic below shows how Newcastle’s pass locations have changed since the turn of the year…

Though there are no seismic changes, it is interesting to note they are pushing the right side even more. Rather than a shift away from a historic strength during a period of underwhelming form, Newcastle are choosing to double down instead.

They are also passing more — but this could be explained by game state, with Newcastle trailing in more matches and needing to get on the ball more.

Wilson’s lack of goals perhaps explains the drop-off in central areas. But Newcastle’s reliance on the right-half space is starting to hinder them: teams are wise to the danger.

Take City on Saturday, who crowded the area in front of Guimaraes whenever he approached that space, demonstrated by a three-minute burst after Phil Foden’s opening goal.

 

Desperate for a quick reply, Newcastle attempt to funnel the ball into Guimaraes, who is immediately covered by six defenders and can’t find an escape. It is a risky but disruptive tactic from the home side.

For most of the first half, City presented Guimaraes with a sky-blue wall. Take this example, less than one minute later. With the Newcastle playmaker on the ball, Jack Grealish blocks off the passing lane out wide to Almiron while Rodri prevents the easy ball through the centre. Ilkay Gundogan, stationed centrally, is in a position to press Guimaraes.

All Guimaraes can do is pass the ball back to Botman, and though it eventually finds Trippier on the wing, he has no space, with Almiron not having drawn any of left-back Nathan Ake’s attention. All Newcastle can do is loop a hopeful cross towards Wilson, which is easily defended.

Two minutes later, a similar story. Guimaraes is dispossessed by De Bruyne, approaching from his blindside, but look how the same trio of City defenders have come together to block his passing lanes.

It continued throughout the match. Look at Newcastle’s passing network: Guimaraes’ relationship with Trippier and Almiron is almost non-existent, with the connection between Burn and Anthony Gordon surprisingly a more important feature of the attack.

Where can Newcastle look for solutions?

Revelry in the right half-space has fired Newcastle’s rise to the point where it has become overreliance.

Yet Howe’s coaching methods have already found one solution to their attacking problems — and there is the belief it will happen again.

 

[ohhh_yeah 2964]

59 minutes ago, wykikitoon said:

 

Noise and negativity? 

 

Hit the back of the net!

 

[ohhh_yeah 2964]

 

He should not be anywhere near the 18, the starting eleven is more laughable. 

 

[The Fish 10857]

Come on man, that's really insensitive.

[Rosco 759]

Start Isak and play him for 60/70 min then bring Wilson on when game is won........and as already mentioned by me and many others get Targett in as LB it will balance the team

Edited March 10, 2023 by Rosco