Wor Eddie's Fuck The Draw Bastards v Eriks Schmoking the Pancake School Meal Wankers - AKA The League Cup Final + Gemmill Loves Excel

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 4269]

Isak is not a centre forward.

[The Fish 11322]

30 minutes ago, Renton said:

"It's goals that count, innit".

 

I'll never forget the Chelsea wankers coming out with that on the tube back from Wembley in 2000. And tbf, it's impossible to argue against.

 

As an aside, I wonder what the xG would have been that match at home we had against ManU when we effectively lost the league in 1996. The one where Smiechel was super human. Can someone work this out retrospectively so I can comfort myself?  

 

 

I'd love to, but I don't have the stats for it. The two stats that I'd bee looking for would be xG and post shot xG. Former would show us if we were causing their defence as big a problem as we remember, the latter would emphasise just how good Peter Schmeichel was. 

[The Fish 11322]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Carr's Gloves said:

Isak is not a centre forward.

No not a stereotypical one, but he's more of a goal threat than Wilson is, right now. 

[PaddockLad 19013]

Just now, Alex said:

It’s probably also worth pointing out that, on recent form and performances, Man Utd are probably one of the top 5 sides in Europe. 

I think the point that kills me is them playing 8 games to our 4 before the final and still winning fairly comfortably, they’d  put Barca out of Europe on Thursday night ffs. They’re going to be a very decent side next season. 
 

There’s a gobshite on twitter who is never happy about anything . We might as well still be owned by Ashley for him. Thing is more often than not he’s right-ish. He said one thing that made me think a couple of weeks ago. Whilst complaining furiously about the transfer window he said this may be our best chance to finish in the top four for a few seasons. There’s a good chance that is true iyam., especially due to our lack of activity in the window (am not complaining btw, just stating the situation) Chelsea will sign a striker in the summer obviously. Spurs are still up there despite being overwhelmingly average . We’ll have to see if the perception that we were being made to wait for targets to become available is accurate and obviously FFP is going to be important. And then you’ve got possible takeovers at Man Utd & Liverpool. It’s not going to be easy & this possibly was our best chance….

[RobinRobin 12486]

34 minutes ago, Alex said:

Well one goal was a deflected shot that wasn’t going in. Karius didn’t have a lot to do. Great set piece for their goal though. De Gea made a good save from Maxi but it was good positioning. If that shot was a matter of 6 inches higher he probably doesn’t have a hope of saving it. xG will never tell the whole story of a match (like how they were able to sit on  their 2 goal cushion in the second half). But it’s still a good indicator of how a match has played out 

But still they give it to Rashford. Don't suppose Botman is complaining though. 

[Alex 36720]

4 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

I think the point that kills me is them playing 8 games to our 4 before the final and still winning fairly comfortably, they’d  put Barca out of Europe on Thursday night ffs. They’re going to be a very decent side next season. 
 

There’s a gobshite on twitter who is never happy about anything . We might as well still be owned by Ashley for him. Thing is more often than not he’s right-ish. He said one thing that made me think a couple of weeks ago. Whilst complaining furiously about the transfer window he said this may be our best chance to finish in the top four for a few seasons. There’s a good chance that is true iyam., especially due to our lack of activity in the window (am not complaining btw, just stating the situation) Chelsea will sign a striker in the summer obviously. Spurs are still up there despite being overwhelmingly average . We’ll have to see if the perception that we were being made to wait for targets to become available is accurate and obviously FFP is going to be important. And then you’ve got possible takeovers at Man Utd & Liverpool. It’s not going to be easy & this possibly was our best chance….

I suppose the other way to look at it is we’re building gradually and supposing we make the CL. Then you’re in a competition you haven’t got a cat in hells chance of winning, with (even with best will in the world in terms of additions this summer) a squad nowhere near being able to compete on all fronts. I’m canny chilled about it tbh because I think it’s inevitable we’ll become an established top 6 side but it might take a few years. The state the club was in (in all areas) might mean doing it over 3/4 years at least. Obviously I’m nee spring chicken and would like to see success asap but a lo of people have no realism when assessing what should be done / timescales. Which I get because if you’re not emotionally attached as a fan there’s not a lot of point in supporting a team tbh 

[RobinRobin 12486]

The period pre world cup was beyond anything we probably expected which has got some ahead of themselves. Yes it may well be our best chance for a while but I don't want us then to fail immediately. 

[Dr Gloom 23642]

20 minutes ago, Kevin Carr's Gloves said:

Isak is not a centre forward.

 

he can play up front but he's a different type of centre forward to wilson, that's for sure

[Renton 23675]

12 minutes ago, RobinRobin said:

But still they give it to Rashford. Don't suppose Botman is complaining though. 

 

It was given to Botman in all the sources I have read. Which addmittedly is just the Sky Sports app! 

[NJS 4564]

They've changed it today. 

[PaddockLad 19013]

12 minutes ago, Alex said:

I suppose the other way to look at it is we’re building gradually and supposing we make the CL. Then you’re in a competition you haven’t got a cat in hells chance of winning, with (even with best will in the world in terms of additions this summer) a squad nowhere near being able to compete on all fronts. I’m canny chilled about it tbh because I think it’s inevitable we’ll become an established top 6 side but it might take a few years. The state the club was in (in all areas) might mean doing it over 3/4 years at least. Obviously I’m nee spring chicken and would like to see success asap but a lo of people have no realism when assessing what should be done / timescales. Which I get because if you’re not emotionally attached as a fan there’s not a lot of point in supporting a team tbh 

Yeah we’ve no chance of winning but it’s the money the champions league brings in that would be the most significant thing for me, the standard of player we could attract etc. Am like you, more than happy with the progress we’ve made. But if we don’t finish top 4 I think its fair to say that it’s a missed opportunity that may be difficult to repeat, especially next season and f we’re in the Thursday/Sunday slot 👍

[Renton 23675]

11 minutes ago, Alex said:

I suppose the other way to look at it is we’re building gradually and supposing we make the CL. Then you’re in a competition you haven’t got a cat in hells chance of winning, with (even with best will in the world in terms of additions this summer) a squad nowhere near being able to compete on all fronts. I’m canny chilled about it tbh because I think it’s inevitable we’ll become an established top 6 side but it might take a few years. The state the club was in (in all areas) might mean doing it over 3/4 years at least. Obviously I’m nee spring chicken and would like to see success asap but a lo of people have no realism when assessing what should be done / timescales. Which I get because if you’re not emotionally attached as a fan there’s not a lot of point in supporting a team tbh 

 

I agree with both you and PL here. The obvious parallel is Man City who took a while in an arguably easier era. But the top looks more over crowded than ever now in terms of teams being owned by hyper billionaires or soverign wealth funds, and its always a concern that NUFC really doesn't have the best legacy or geography to compete. Which adds to my sense of urgency which PL alludes too. Basically, have we missed the boat? Otoh, it's difficult to imagine PIF won't pull out the stops to not even compete at the top, but win. Otherwise I'm not sure why they are here, niot to make a profit I'm sure. Que sera anyway, its only a fucking game, and I mean that. There are more important things. 

[Dr Gloom 23642]

5 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

I agree with both you and PL here. The obvious parallel is Man City who took a while in an arguably easier era. But the top looks more over crowded than ever now in terms of teams being owned by hyper billionaires or soverign wealth funds, and its always a concern that NUFC really doesn't have the best legacy or geography to compete. Which adds to my sense of urgency which PL alludes too. Basically, have we missed the boat? Otoh, it's difficult to imagine PIF won't pull out the stops to not even compete at the top, but win. Otherwise I'm not sure why they are here, niot to make a profit I'm sure. Que sera anyway, its only a fucking game, and I mean that. There are more important things. 

 

its importance definitely increases when things start moving in the right direction though. otherwise, why would we chat so much shit about it on here all week? it was notably quiet on this board during the ashley years because the club and the fans were going through the motions. 

 

i'm v happy to be spending more time here and less time and energy on the politics/brexit threads these days 

[Renton 23675]

10 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

its importance definitely increases when things start moving in the right direction though. otherwise, why would we chat so much shit about it on here all week? it was notably quiet on this board during the ashley years because the club and the fans were going through the motions. 

 

i'm v happy to be spending more time here and less time and energy on the politics/brexit threads these days 

 

Me too, and absolutely.  Don't think I bothered with the footy board for 10 years.

But I guess that's the point. If we're not doing well or going nowhere, then I can take it or leave it. I fully admit I'm a fair weather supporter.  

[Dr Gloom 23642]

7 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

Me too, and absolutely.  Don't think I bothered with the footy board for 10 years.

But I guess that's the point. If we're not doing well or going nowhere, then I can take it or leave it. I fully admit I'm a fair weather supporter.  

 

i think most are, even if some don't like to admit it. it's hard to sustain much enthusiasm when the club you follow is barely trying. 

 

i still went to a game or two a season under ashley and watched the games on the telly, but i was doing it out a sense of duty. it was nothing like now. the wife was asking me why i bothered when i clearly wasn't getting much out of it. watching us lose didn't really hurt, because we lost so often. sometimes i would forget we were even playing on a certain day and then a bad result was met with a shrug of the shoulders. 

 

edit - I've done a complete 180 since the takeover like. gone fully mental for footie again 

Edited February 28, 2023 by Dr Gloom

[Toonpack 11366]

1 hour ago, PaddockLad said:

But he verbalised an irrelevant measurement perfectly. Strange that, being able to tell what’s happening on the pitch by actually watching the game 😀

 

Seems to me that an inordinate amount of the time the team with the higher xG doesn't actually win tight-ish games i.e. a game that isn't a hammering. So it reflects the opposite of what actually happened.

 

 

[Gemmill 49968]

6 minutes ago, Toonpack said:

 

Seems to me that an inordinate amount of the time the team with the higher xG doesn't actually win tight-ish games i.e. a game that isn't a hammering. So it reflects the opposite of what actually happened.

 

 

 

 Seems to me that a statement like that should come with some evidence. Seems to me like it absolutely won't. 

 

[Toonpack 11366]

31 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

 Seems to me that a statement like that should come with some evidence. Seems to me like it absolutely won't. 

 

 Erm

[Gemmill 49968]

i know it CAN happen.

 

[Craig 6806]

2 hours ago, Gemmill said:

 

You're right, Craig still doesn't understand what xG is measuring. 

 

I understand it perfectly. I just happen to be of the opinion that it's bullshit

 

[Toonpack 11366]

Explain the evidence which you suggested didn't exist. Why does it happen ?? go on, educate a non-believer.

 

 

[Gemmill 49968]

Why are the xG and actual score often not the same? Because players can miss gilt edged chances and score worldies. 

 

I'm not here to convert you BTW. This isn't a "believing" issue. It's statistical probability. 

[Howay 12496]

I’m personally looking to the Wolves match as an indicator, Man City away is a horrendous fixture and we won’t set up like we will against the majority. If we see a team against wolves that plays with the aggression and powerful running as we’ve seen in the past, along with signs that Isak and Gordon are integrating (both should absolutely start imo) then I’ll be positive about our CL place chances. 
 

I agree missing top 4 this year would feel like a missed chance given we’ve been there most the season, it would help us accelerate the project as well, but if we do miss out I’m not too worried for our future chances as the points tally always seems to hover around the same mark each season and teams will always go on weird runs. I think we’re in a decent position and although I wanted us to bring a CM in in January I’m excited to see what Gordon and Isak bring to the side when Bruno is involved. 

[Ayatollah Hermione 14671]

1 hour ago, PaddockLad said:

Yeah we’ve no chance of winning but it’s the money the champions league brings in that would be the most significant thing for me, the standard of player we could attract etc. Am like you, more than happy with the progress we’ve made. But if we don’t finish top 4 I think its fair to say that it’s a missed opportunity that may be difficult to repeat, especially next season and f we’re in the Thursday/Sunday slot 👍

I’m not sure it’s so unattainable next season tbh. Our record against the teams around us is pretty good and I don’t see that changing anytime soon, if I’m honest considering we’re going to give everyone a good game. The signings in the summer will hopefully solve the biggest problems which is turning the frustrating draws against the shite into wins. I find it hard to believe that we’ll only lose a handful of games next season like this one but I bet we win more 

[ackas 311]

9 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

Why are the xG and actual score often not the same? Because players can miss gilt edged chances and score worldies. 

 

I'm not here to convert you BTW. This isn't a "believing" issue. It's statistical probability. 

 

2 games from this season

 

https://understat.com/match/18382

 

https://understat.com/match/18348

 

The 0-0 Arsenal game was pretty even.

We had the bigger chance 

But they dominated possession and forced us to defend deep - xG wont give you that info

 

The 1-4 Saints game
Their xG was higher believe it or not

Our finishing was just better. Or to some degree the xG model is expecting their keeper to save Wood's and Bruno's efforts, or for them to be blocked more than 90% of the time

 

xG is just a model to possibly give some other insights into games, which may or may not be apparent to the naked eye

Its not a religion 🙂