Other Games 22/23

[The Fish 10972]

9 minutes ago, Holden McGroin said:

 
I’m just merely pointing out factors that stats don’t account for. 

l love the childish name calling as well. Rattled. 😂

 

 

I've got no problem with you coming up with a sequence of increasingly unlikely situations that would see us miss out on Champions League football. I'm just suggesting that the improbably calamities that you predict for us can just as easily befall the other teams. 

 

What if Liverpool win every game, and Bruno and Schar miss the rest of the season, and Isak is abducted by Somali pirates, and Joelinton turns into a moss covered rock, and we get a points deduction for Schar being too handsome, and every other team gets a points bonus because they're all best friends with Sunderland and we're not. 

 

 

[Toonpack 9973]

Gemmill's default setting (extreme over confidence in all things) is somewhat of a concern, what he says rarely comes to pass, he's like the Anti-Private Fraser.

 

I want Spuds to win tonight, I want 3rd and Spuds ain't reeling us in.

 

 

[Gemmill 46086]

1 minute ago, Toonpack said:

Gemmill's default setting (extreme over confidence in all things) is somewhat of a concern, what he says rarely comes to pass, he's like the Anti-Private Fraser.

 

I want Spuds to win tonight, I want 3rd and Spuds ain't reeling us in.

 

 

 

I seem to remember playing nappy change whack-a-mole last season and ultimately having to produce a spreadsheet, updated weekly, to show how improbable it was that teams would "go on a run and catch us" based on their achievements in the season to date.

 

And everything I said came to pass.

 

And that's all I'm doing now.

 

So, ONCE AGAIN WRONG BOY, you get to shut your face!

[The Fish 10972]

2 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

I seem to remember playing nappy change whack-a-mole last season and ultimately having to produce a spreadsheet, updated weekly, to show how improbable it was that teams would "go on a run and catch us" based on their achievements in the season to date.

 

And everything I said came to pass.

 

And that's all I'm doing now.

 

So, ONCE AGAIN WRONG BOY, you get to shut your face!

 

There's a good reason last night's game was labelled the title decider, despite their being 5 games and 15pts to go. Man City are 2points behind Arsenal, and theoretically, could lose every single game and Arsenal win theirs, meaning Arsenal finish up 17pts clear of the boys in blue. It's possible, but it's not fucking likely which is why last night was the called the title decider. 

 

It's theoretically possible that our form could absolutely collapse and the other teams could suddenly and miraculously turn into monsters, destroying all in their path. But it's not likely. 

 

The betting companies, the statisticians, the press and pundits all think that the most likely situation is that the teams in the top 4 stay there, and that the rest of the teams duke it out for the remaining European spots. But going off the maudlin scrawlings on piss-wet sheets of the last few pages, simply because the CL spot is not mathematically assured, we should expect calamity.

[The Fish 10972]

Premier League Calculator (thefishy.co.uk)

 

There you go lads, punch in the results you expect and tell us what you come back with. 

[Toonpack 9973]

2 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Premier League Calculator (thefishy.co.uk)

 

There you go lads, punch in the results you expect and tell us what you come back with. 

 

No need, we're going undefeated

[RobinRobin 11594]

3 hours ago, OTF said:

 

Chris Wood is out for the season with a thigh injury he picked up playing park footy with RobinRobin and Shelvey's been dumped because he spat his dummy at being dropped to the bench. Working out well for them.Ithat said, I actually want them to stay up though. Their scattergun approach to recruiting is nothing if not interesting.

Don't you fucking start. Traitor. 😡 

[ackas 311]

8 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Premier League Calculator (thefishy.co.uk)

 

There you go lads, punch in the results you expect and tell us what you come back with. 

 

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Man City	38	+53	94
2	Arsenal	38	+40	87
3	Man Utd	38	+9	75
4	Newcastle	38	+29	72
5	Liverpool	38	+22	71
6	Aston Villa	38	+5	62
7	Brighton	38	+15	60
8	Tottenham	38	+7	60

 

 

I've got us winning 3 and drawing 4

 

[Gemmill 46086]

 

We were 86% to make the CL before last night's fixtures. We're now 87%.

 

[ackas 311]

4 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

We were 86% to make the CL before last night's fixtures. We're now 87%.

 

 

Whats SPI?

[RobinRobin 11594]

1 minute ago, ackas said:

 

Whats SPI?

Best leave that to MF. 🙂 

[The Fish 10972]

5 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

We were 86% to make the CL before last night's fixtures. We're now 87%.

 

 

So you're saying even the stats nerds are saying there's a 13% chance we won't? 

 

[wykikitoon 20767]

33 minutes ago, The Fish said:

 

There's a good reason last night's game was labelled the title decider, despite their being 5 games and 15pts to go. Man City are 2points behind Arsenal, and theoretically, could lose every single game and Arsenal win theirs, meaning Arsenal finish up 17pts clear of the boys in blue. It's possible, but it's not fucking likely which is why last night was the called the title decider. 

 

It's theoretically possible that our form could absolutely collapse and the other teams could suddenly and miraculously turn into monsters, destroying all in their path. But it's not likely. 

 

The betting companies, the statisticians, the press and pundits all think that the most likely situation is that the teams in the top 4 stay there, and that the rest of the teams duke it out for the remaining European spots. But going off the maudlin scrawlings on piss-wet sheets of the last few pages, simply because the CL spot is not mathematically assured, we should expect calamity.

If i could double like this I would

[Gemmill 46086]

7 minutes ago, ackas said:

 

Whats SPI?

 

 

More at the link below, but that's the bones of it.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-club-soccer-predictions-work/

 

You'll have to ignore the Americanisms. Soccer, tie, etc.

Edited April 27, 2023 by Gemmill

[OTF 7496]

3 hours ago, RobinRobin said:

Don't you fucking start. Traitor. 😡 

[Renton 22007]

This is what I got letting the computer decide. Fourth spot, 9 points clear. We'll finish above ManU though I reckon, but i'll settle for this.

 

[Ayatollah Hermione 14066]

Fancy using an American statistics system ffs. Might as well simulate the remaining games on FM

[Gemmill 46086]

23 minutes ago, Renton said:

This is what I got letting the computer decide. Fourth spot, 9 points clear. We'll finish above ManU though I reckon, but i'll settle for this.

 

 

I thought you liked Liverpool.

 

You've absolutely shit on them there. 

[The Fish 10972]

I just used that predictor 25 times, selected no teams and let the calculator do it's thing. So all of the results were "forecast by the calculator based partly upon recent form, although note that there is also a random factor built in to simulate the unpredictable nature of our sport."

 

We got CL in all of them, sometimes 4th, sometimes 3rd. 

 

 

[Gemmill 46086]

I did the same, and on my 6th go......................LIVERPOOL FINISH FOURTH!

 

68 points for them.  67 for us. 

 

The logic that sits behind that calculator has been written by someone from Grimsby though, so it can FUCK OFF. 

[Ayatollah Hermione 14066]

I got us in 4th with the exact same goal difference we have now. Yet another instance where AI has failed

[thebrokendoll 9466]

[Gemmill 46086]

For anyone still worried about the other set of scouser....

 

Liverpool now HAVE to win 3 and draw 1 of their remaining 6 games just to surpass our CURRENT points total.

[Toonpack 9973]

Massive game Monday, if Leicester beat the Scouse mackems Gemmill may finally be proven right.

[Gemmill 46086]

I'm a righteous dude.