The Fish 10674 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, Holden McGroin said: I’m just merely pointing out factors that stats don’t account for. l love the childish name calling as well. Rattled. 😂 I've got no problem with you coming up with a sequence of increasingly unlikely situations that would see us miss out on Champions League football. I'm just suggesting that the improbably calamities that you predict for us can just as easily befall the other teams. What if Liverpool win every game, and Bruno and Schar miss the rest of the season, and Isak is abducted by Somali pirates, and Joelinton turns into a moss covered rock, and we get a points deduction for Schar being too handsome, and every other team gets a points bonus because they're all best friends with Sunderland and we're not. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toonpack 9112 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Gemmill's default setting (extreme over confidence in all things) is somewhat of a concern, what he says rarely comes to pass, he's like the Anti-Private Fraser. I want Spuds to win tonight, I want 3rd and Spuds ain't reeling us in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44113 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Toonpack said: Gemmill's default setting (extreme over confidence in all things) is somewhat of a concern, what he says rarely comes to pass, he's like the Anti-Private Fraser. I want Spuds to win tonight, I want 3rd and Spuds ain't reeling us in. I seem to remember playing nappy change whack-a-mole last season and ultimately having to produce a spreadsheet, updated weekly, to show how improbable it was that teams would "go on a run and catch us" based on their achievements in the season to date. And everything I said came to pass. And that's all I'm doing now. So, ONCE AGAIN WRONG BOY, you get to shut your face! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10674 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Gemmill said: I seem to remember playing nappy change whack-a-mole last season and ultimately having to produce a spreadsheet, updated weekly, to show how improbable it was that teams would "go on a run and catch us" based on their achievements in the season to date. And everything I said came to pass. And that's all I'm doing now. So, ONCE AGAIN WRONG BOY, you get to shut your face! There's a good reason last night's game was labelled the title decider, despite their being 5 games and 15pts to go. Man City are 2points behind Arsenal, and theoretically, could lose every single game and Arsenal win theirs, meaning Arsenal finish up 17pts clear of the boys in blue. It's possible, but it's not fucking likely which is why last night was the called the title decider. It's theoretically possible that our form could absolutely collapse and the other teams could suddenly and miraculously turn into monsters, destroying all in their path. But it's not likely. The betting companies, the statisticians, the press and pundits all think that the most likely situation is that the teams in the top 4 stay there, and that the rest of the teams duke it out for the remaining European spots. But going off the maudlin scrawlings on piss-wet sheets of the last few pages, simply because the CL spot is not mathematically assured, we should expect calamity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10674 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Premier League Calculator (thefishy.co.uk) There you go lads, punch in the results you expect and tell us what you come back with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toonpack 9112 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, The Fish said: Premier League Calculator (thefishy.co.uk) There you go lads, punch in the results you expect and tell us what you come back with. No need, we're going undefeated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobinRobin 11094 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 3 hours ago, OTF said: Chris Wood is out for the season with a thigh injury he picked up playing park footy with RobinRobin and Shelvey's been dumped because he spat his dummy at being dropped to the bench. Working out well for them.Ithat said, I actually want them to stay up though. Their scattergun approach to recruiting is nothing if not interesting. Don't you fucking start. Traitor. 😡 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackas 311 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, The Fish said: Premier League Calculator (thefishy.co.uk) There you go lads, punch in the results you expect and tell us what you come back with. Pos Team P GD Pts 1 Man City 38 +53 94 2 Arsenal 38 +40 87 3 Man Utd 38 +9 75 4 Newcastle 38 +29 72 5 Liverpool 38 +22 71 6 Aston Villa 38 +5 62 7 Brighton 38 +15 60 8 Tottenham 38 +7 60 I've got us winning 3 and drawing 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44113 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 We were 86% to make the CL before last night's fixtures. We're now 87%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackas 311 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Gemmill said: We were 86% to make the CL before last night's fixtures. We're now 87%. Whats SPI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobinRobin 11094 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 1 minute ago, ackas said: Whats SPI? Best leave that to MF. 🙂 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10674 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, Gemmill said: We were 86% to make the CL before last night's fixtures. We're now 87%. So you're saying even the stats nerds are saying there's a 13% chance we won't? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wykikitoon 19807 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 33 minutes ago, The Fish said: There's a good reason last night's game was labelled the title decider, despite their being 5 games and 15pts to go. Man City are 2points behind Arsenal, and theoretically, could lose every single game and Arsenal win theirs, meaning Arsenal finish up 17pts clear of the boys in blue. It's possible, but it's not fucking likely which is why last night was the called the title decider. It's theoretically possible that our form could absolutely collapse and the other teams could suddenly and miraculously turn into monsters, destroying all in their path. But it's not likely. The betting companies, the statisticians, the press and pundits all think that the most likely situation is that the teams in the top 4 stay there, and that the rest of the teams duke it out for the remaining European spots. But going off the maudlin scrawlings on piss-wet sheets of the last few pages, simply because the CL spot is not mathematically assured, we should expect calamity. If i could double like this I would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44113 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, ackas said: Whats SPI? More at the link below, but that's the bones of it. https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-club-soccer-predictions-work/ You'll have to ignore the Americanisms. Soccer, tie, etc. Edited April 27, 2023 by Gemmill 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OTF 7217 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 3 hours ago, RobinRobin said: Don't you fucking start. Traitor. 😡 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21056 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 This is what I got letting the computer decide. Fourth spot, 9 points clear. We'll finish above ManU though I reckon, but i'll settle for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayatollah Hermione 13762 Posted April 27, 2023 Author Share Posted April 27, 2023 Fancy using an American statistics system ffs. Might as well simulate the remaining games on FM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44113 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 23 minutes ago, Renton said: This is what I got letting the computer decide. Fourth spot, 9 points clear. We'll finish above ManU though I reckon, but i'll settle for this. I thought you liked Liverpool. You've absolutely shit on them there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10674 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 I just used that predictor 25 times, selected no teams and let the calculator do it's thing. So all of the results were "forecast by the calculator based partly upon recent form, although note that there is also a random factor built in to simulate the unpredictable nature of our sport." We got CL in all of them, sometimes 4th, sometimes 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44113 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 I did the same, and on my 6th go......................LIVERPOOL FINISH FOURTH! 68 points for them. 67 for us. The logic that sits behind that calculator has been written by someone from Grimsby though, so it can FUCK OFF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayatollah Hermione 13762 Posted April 27, 2023 Author Share Posted April 27, 2023 I got us in 4th with the exact same goal difference we have now. Yet another instance where AI has failed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebrokendoll 9034 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44113 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 For anyone still worried about the other set of scouser.... Liverpool now HAVE to win 3 and draw 1 of their remaining 6 games just to surpass our CURRENT points total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toonpack 9112 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 Massive game Monday, if Leicester beat the Scouse mackems Gemmill may finally be proven right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44113 Posted April 27, 2023 Share Posted April 27, 2023 I'm a righteous dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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