Gemmill 42030 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10335 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 14 hours ago, Dr Gloom said: i'm surprised about how low tottenham's odds are. do you how it's modelled - is it based on form and remaining fixtures or does it factor in things like conte potentially leaving before the end of the season etc I don't know how it's modelled, but it's not as simple as the wisdom of crowds. They do use performance metrics and the like to inform their decision, then obviously the betting markets will be adjusted to account for bets placed and stuff. fivethirtyeight uses performance metrics to assign a value to each team and then, based on one team's strength vs the others, work out their expected return from the remaining games. Run that simulation many times to get a probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayatollah Hermione 13501 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 All very admirable but a couple of injuries/suspensions to some sides and the probabilities go right out of whack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10335 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 30 minutes ago, Ayatollah Hermione said: All very admirable but a couple of injuries/suspensions to some sides and the probabilities go right out of whack. Absolutely, doesn't take a new manager's impact into account, nor like you say injuries and suspensions. It's just one of those "All things being equal this is what we expect"... things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaddockLad 16349 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 51 minutes ago, The Fish said: Absolutely, doesn't take a new manager's impact into account, nor like you say injuries and suspensions. It's just one of those "All things being equal this is what we expect"... things. I take it you’re on about that table? ie stat based probability? The odds are from a betting exchange, I thought that was punters just offering each other odds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10335 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 22 minutes ago, PaddockLad said: I take it you’re on about that table? ie stat based probability? The odds are from a betting exchange, I thought that was punters just offering each other odds? I got the odds from Betfair, not Betfair exchange. So it's the odds worked out by the company, and as such it'll be based on metrics, and of course the monies usually placed on a particular team (e.g. Liverpool and Man Utd have huge amounts put on their games so they stretch the odds a bit more). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21191 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 17 hours ago, Gemmill said: If he's looking on the Betfair exchange, it's not a model, it's an exchange so basically wisdom of crowds. i meant the probability rather than the odds, soz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaddockLad 16349 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 https://www.nufc.co.uk/media/75368/nufc-fan-engagement-review-202223.pdf 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougle 3215 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 19 minutes ago, PaddockLad said: https://www.nufc.co.uk/media/75368/nufc-fan-engagement-review-202223.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21191 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 Club name and shirt colours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayatollah Hermione 13501 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 Lads, give it a read first 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebrokendoll 8453 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 1 hour ago, PaddockLad said: https://www.nufc.co.uk/media/75368/nufc-fan-engagement-review-202223.pdf you casting a net there mate? anyway, none of it would ever happen, we have such a resolute and militant fan base! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21191 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 34 minutes ago, Ayatollah Hermione said: Lads, give it a read first I did read it. Dialogue with fans sounds great. Fair enough it might be time for a badge refresh but I’m struggling with why they think the club name or colours should be up for discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 33830 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 It could well be a commitment that things like the team name and home colours will never be changed. The crest has changed on a few occasions (3 times since it was the City of Newcastle one?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21191 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 Not much of a discussion then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 33830 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 Just now, Dr Gloom said: Not much of a discussion then No, but an easy win. They’re likely to a million times more PR savvy than the previous regime. Couple that with talking about long term commitments to the club and the area and people will lap it up. As long as they’re continue to invest in the infrastructure and fully support the team / manager that’s fine by me. Obviously I’m just speculating but changing the home kit and name would seem to go against what they seem to be wanting to do here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21191 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Alex said: No, but an easy win. They’re likely to a million times more PR savvy than the previous regime. Couple that with talking about long term commitments to the club and the area and people will lap it up. As long as they’re continue to invest in the infrastructure and fully support the team / manager that’s fine by me. Obviously I’m just speculating but changing the home kit and name would seem to go against what they seem to be wanting to do here totally agree, which is why it struck me as odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaddockLad 16349 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 This is why I’m not keen of praising Staveley and her colleagues. Sooner or later they’ll try to get something past us that’s just bollocks. The badge will undoubtedly change, it’s the oldest one in the league or very close to it, 34 years we’ve had it? I don’t think that will matter too much in the long run as long as a new corporate logo isn’t too hideous. The real trouble will arise when they get orders from Riyadh to do something that would be deeply unpopular across the fan base. The fans they deign to talk to at that point will be pretty much bought and paid for and will be tasked with smoothing the way for real change. Am aware of all this so it won’t bother me too much. The club will change hugely, am sure some of it will be fine, some of it I’ll have issues with. … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaddockLad 16349 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 29 minutes ago, thebrokendoll said: you casting a net there mate? anyway, none of it would ever happen, we have such a resolute and militant fan base! I think your mate Chinky is ideal for the new fans advisory board 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebrokendoll 8453 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, PaddockLad said: This is why I’m not keen of praising Staveley and her colleagues. Sooner or later they’ll try to get something past us that’s just bollocks. The badge will undoubtedly change, it’s the oldest one in the league or very close to it, 34 years we’ve had it? I don’t think that will matter too much in the long run as long as a new corporate logo isn’t too hideous. The real trouble will arise when they get orders from Riyadh to do something that would be deeply unpopular across the fan base. The fans they deign to talk to at that point will be pretty much bought and paid for and will be tasked with smoothing the way for real change. Am aware of all this so it won’t bother me too much. The club will change hugely, am sure some of it will be fine, some of it I’ll have issues with. … in the link you've posted haven't the club just basically regurgitated the 3 points in the fans charter the f.s.a. have with clubs. I agree it's probably best to hold stavely etc at arms length and even more so to mistrust those they've probably already got in their pocket! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaddockLad 16349 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, thebrokendoll said: in the link you've posted haven't the club just basically regurgitated the 3 points in the fans charter the f.s.a. have with clubs. I agree it's probably best to hold stavely etc at arms length and even more so to mistrust those they've probably already got in their pocket! Yeah they’re patting the Trust on the head at the moment with I’d imagine a view to using them for PR in the future. Difficult to tell how much support the club offered when they were getting it in the neck for the cup final ticket fiasco… my guess is not a lot.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebrokendoll 8453 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 17 minutes ago, PaddockLad said: Yeah they’re patting the Trust on the head at the moment with I’d imagine a view to using them for PR in the future. Difficult to tell how much support the club offered when they were getting it in the neck for the cup final ticket fiasco… my guess is not a lot.. . you ever read seumas milne's 'the enemy within'? there was less skullduggery going on during the miner's strike! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dougle 3215 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 46 minutes ago, thebrokendoll said: in the link you've posted haven't the club just basically regurgitated the 3 points in the fans charter the f.s.a. have with clubs. I agree it's probably best to hold stavely etc at arms length and even more so to mistrust those they've probably already got in their pocket! It’s Staveley mate. I was ridiculed for misspelling the name of an irrelevant egotistical cunt who gets paid £1.whatever million per annum to smugly present a weekly ‘highlights’ show on ye olde BBC. This woman has pretty much changed the direction of this club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkeys Fist 41165 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 Riyadh Rovers rolls off the tongue quite nicely, if you ask me like. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebrokendoll 8453 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, Dougle said: It’s Staveley mate. I was ridiculed for misspelling the name of an irrelevant egotistical cunt who gets paid £1.whatever million per annum to smugly present a weekly ‘highlights’ show on ye olde BBC. This woman has pretty much changed the direction of this club. aye. in fairness I've not mastered capitals yet, I'm allowed the odd spelling mistake. bit indifferent to gary linker meself, I tend to get more miffed with shearer in that he let's the leicester twat take the piss out of him with relative ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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