Transfers, 2024-25 season

[Gemmill 42580]

The lengths we're going to to sign this bloke, I think it's safe to say that Howe and Mitchell REALLY want him and we are prepared to meet or at least get very close to Palace's valuation to make it happen. Which is why I want us to get him. 

 

The idea that we know better is canny mental tbh. PSR is Eales's problem. We need to stop worrying about it as fans and let the club manage it. 

[DCR 24]

4 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

Am I alone here in thinking this bloke is worth nowhere near what we paid for Isak?

 

Solid centre half, English, so a inflated transfer fee is baked in, used to the premier league etc - but if it wasn’t for six good games in a poor England team during the euros he’d be going for £20-30m. It’s exactly the sort of deal we have avoided and the type Man U usually fall for - paying offer the odds on a player who will never be worth that much again throughout his career. 
 

Perhaps I’m missing something that other people have seen that can suggest I’m wrong here but he doesn’t look like an obvious successor to Schar. Certainly not a like-for-like ball-playing centre back.
 

And tbh, if we do sign him, i don’t think he starts when everyone is fit - Schar and Botman are better players, surely?

 

We desperately need a replacement for Botman this season and Schar next, so looks the ideal player.

 

With PSR we can't afford to make any mistakes with transfers.

We made one last year that had a big effect on our season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PaddockLad 16505]

 

1 hour ago, Dr Gloom said:

The one thing these owners haven’t done so far is let a selling club take the piss. They’ve walked away from deals that played out in the media in the way this one has - Diego Carlos springs to mind - and have worked hard to establish a reputation  as tough negotiators to stop selling clubs trying to add a Newcastle tax. This deal makes zero sense after all that. 

 

I think, and hope, we walk away from it now. We have to be honest about where we are in the bullshit world of psr/ffp. Guehi is a good defender but he’s never worth £65m and we don’t have the financial headroom to throw that kind of cash on him just because he had a good euros. There are other, good CB options out there for much less. 

Yeah. It’s not the owners this time though and it looks like it’s making a massive difference….

 

 

[Polarboy 2311]

1 hour ago, Dr Gloom said:

You could have got him for £30m before the euros. And there are other defenders available for that sort of fee that are just as good or better than Guehi. The big money would be better spent on a new right winger - the one glaring weak spot in the squad    

 

Guehi was already recognized as one of the best young English defenders in the PL before the Euros, it's why he was picked. There's no way you'd be buying him for 30m. There was already talk that he'd go for 50 at least, if not 60m. The precident in recent memory had already been set with a player like White at Arsenal who went for 50m. 

 

[Dr Gloom 21280]

7 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

The lengths we're going to to sign this bloke, I think it's safe to say that Howe and Mitchell REALLY want him and we are prepared to meet or at least get very close to Palace's valuation to make it happen. Which is why I want us to get him. 

 

The idea that we know better is canny mental tbh. PSR is Eales's problem. We need to stop worrying about it as fans and let the club manage it. 

If agree with most of what you’re saying except psr was almost a big problem for us in June when we were scrambling to sell players we didn’t really want to sell in order to avoid a points deduction. You’d think we would cut our cloth accordingly to avoid a repeat of that further down the line. 
 

I’m not going to pretend to understand the accountancy stuff the way you do, but this doesn’t feel like a deal that offers the sort of value we have sought under the new ownership so far. I understand the need to spunk this kind of money on quality forwards/midfielders and possibly an elite defender. You might be right to put your faith in Howe and Mitchell but it feels like we are massively overpaying at £65m. Probably more than double what he would have gone for before the euros. 

[The Fish 10422]

14 minutes ago, DCR said:

 

We desperately need a replacement for Botman this season and Schar next, so looks the ideal player.

 

With PSR we can't afford to make any mistakes with transfers.

We made one last year that had a big effect on our season.

 

 

? We did?

[Gemmill 42580]

1 minute ago, Dr Gloom said:

If agree with most of what you’re saying except psr was almost a big problem for us in June when we were scrambling to sell players we didn’t really want to sell in order to avoid a points deduction. You’d think we would cut our cloth accordingly to avoid a repeat of that further down the line. 
 

I’m not going to pretend to understand the accountancy stuff the way you do, but this doesn’t feel like a deal that offers the sort of value we have sought under the new ownership so far. I understand the need to spunk this kind of money on quality forwards/midfielders and possibly an elite defender. You might be right to put your faith in Howe and Mitchell but it feels like we are massively overpaying at £65m. Probably more than double what he would have gone for before the euros. 

 

Honestly mate, I'm not trying to understand the accountancy stuff around football. They change the rules every five minutes anyway. 

 

I want us to spend big money on players to get better, and I don't want to have to think about the PSR implications of it anymore. It's boring and it's not the job of the fan to worry about it. 

 

If three years down the line, this means we have to panic sell some youngster, so be it. Not my concern, and it's 3 years away anyway - we might win a trophy during that time. The job of the fan is to want the club to go wild in the aisles every time a transfer window opens. Eales's job is to be Rachel Reeves and make sure it's done responsibly.

[Polarboy 2311]

We need to take his age into account as well when we evaluate his transfer fee. He's just turned 24, so we could conceivably have him for three years and lose very little on his value should we wish to sell in that time, and conversely we could have a mainstay of the team for the next ten years. 

[Dr Gloom 21280]

1 minute ago, Polarboy said:

 

Guehi was already recognized as one of the best young English defenders in the PL before the Euros, it's why he was picked. There's no way you'd be buying him for 30m. There was already talk that he'd go for 50 at least, if not 60m. The precident in recent memory had already been set with a player like White at Arsenal who went for 50m. 

 

I dunno about that like. Decent player but I wouldn’t have seen anyone shelling £50m on him before the euros - even taking the English player tax into consideration 

[RobElliott 1417]

Its all good lads on the PSR, if we get this lad and need to make PSR room we can always hoy Bruno and Gordon for £100m each next June  

[Gemmill 42580]

Just now, Polarboy said:

We need to take his age into account as well when we evaluate his transfer fee. He's just turned 24, so we could conceivably have him for three years and lose very little on his value should we wish to sell in that time, and conversely we could have a mainstay of the team for the next ten years. 

 

This is what I keep coming back to. This lad could still be our first choice centre half 8 years from now. I assume this is also what's in the mind of those at the club pushing for the deal. 

[toonotl 2828]

This transfer is taking a massively greater level of risk to previous transfers. We can deal in "if" scenarios about the lad's future or talk about who knows what compared to whom but the facts are that this is a new level of risk for the club. That seems straightforwardly true. If it works it works. I hope it does. But it's undoubtedly a greater level of risk to spend top striker money on a CB. He needs to be a amongst the world's best for years to come merely to justify the transfer. I don't think we can say that about a previous transfer. Not even Isak's transfer held such expectations owing to the inflated prices for strikers.

 

That said, I actually hope the transfer goes ahead because it's exciting and fundamentally that's more important to me as a supporter than balance sheets. But, like I've said, I also wouldn't be disappointed if it fell through. I'm fine either way because I think this transfer indicates a shift of direction from the new directors. It seems like we're in a situation where it's an educated level of risk since we need to be upwardly mobile this season or face losing our top players. We may as well push the boat out because if we don't crack into the upper echelons sharpish the likes of Gordon, Isak and Bruno will look to go elsewhere. It seems like the risk is that we'll cover PSR in the season after next either through another CL qualification or selling one of our big players.

 

I hope that the Geuhi signing is followed by a similar RW signing to really show our intentions because if it is our aim to finish 4th with a good amount of room for error built in then we have to improve that position also.

[Polarboy 2311]

12 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

I dunno about that like. Decent player but I wouldn’t have seen anyone shelling £50m on him before the euros - even taking the English player tax into consideration 

 

He's been an England international for about two years, so I just don't see a young English player who's been highly rated for a significant period of time going for 30. He'd need to be in the final year of his contract or something along those lines. And you could probably have said the same thing about Ben White before Arsenal bought him off Brighton. In any case it's just a matter of opinion given we'll never now how much a club would have paid for him pre-Euros. 

Edited August 16 by Polarboy

[Gemmill 42580]

6 minutes ago, toonotl said:

This transfer is taking a massively greater level of risk to previous transfers. We can deal in "if" scenarios about the lad's future or talk about who knows what compared to whom but the facts are that this is a new level of risk for the club. That seems straightforwardly true. If it works it works. I hope it does. But it's undoubtedly a greater level of risk to spend top striker money on a CB. He needs to be a amongst the world's best for years to come merely to justify the transfer. I don't think we can say that about a previous transfer. Not even Isak's transfer held such expectations owing to the inflated prices for strikers.

 

That said, I actually hope the transfer goes ahead because it's exciting and fundamentally that's more important to me as a supporter than balance sheets. But, like I've said, I also wouldn't be disappointed if it fell through. I'm fine either way because I think this transfer indicates a shift of direction from the new directors. It seems like we're in a situation where it's an educated level of risk since we need to be upwardly mobile this season or face losing our top players. We may as well push the boat out because if we don't crack into the upper echelons sharpish the likes of Gordon, Isak and Bruno will look to go elsewhere. It seems like the risk is that we'll cover PSR in the season after next either through another CL qualification or selling one of our big players.

 

I hope that the Geuhi signing is followed by a similar RW signing to really show our intentions because if it is our aim to finish 4th with a good amount of room for error built in then we have to improve that position also.

 

Aye, I don't think you can keep carefully-carefullying your way to becoming a fixture in the top 4.

 

It was completely necessary early on that we managed windows in that way - we'd be PSR busto now if we'd done what the press expected us to do and gone crazy on big stars early on. And the ownership did a fucking brilliant job with it, particularly that first window. 

 

But we've got to start stepping on the gas a bit and taking some risks, especially when everyone around us is doing exactly that. Backwards steps won't be acceptable to the ownership or the fans. 

[The Fish 10422]

16 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

I dunno about that like. Decent player but I wouldn’t have seen anyone shelling £50m on him before the euros - even taking the English player tax into consideration 

Manchester United ‘learn’ asking price of Marc Guehi plus more transfer rumours - Manchester Evening News

 

21/10/2023 Man Utd were quoted £60m

 

[Dr Gloom 21280]

15 minutes ago, Polarboy said:

 

He's been an England international for about two years, so I just don't see a young English player who's been highly rated for a significant period of time going for 30. He'd need to be in the final year of his contract or something along those lines. And you could probably have said the same thing about Ben White before Arsenal bought him off Brighton. 

Guehi is a solid but unspectacular centre back. £50m seems loads for him let alone the mooted £65m. We could probably go and get Tomori from Milan for less than £40m, or the German international we were linked with earlier in the window. I’d rather we did that then spunk £50-60m on the quality right winger were crying out for.
 

If we end up blowing the rest of our summer budget on Guehi, I think it’s been an average transfer window rather than a good one because we still have two Steve Bruce era players as our main options at RW.  

Edited August 16 by Dr Gloom

[Dr Gloom 21280]

4 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Manchester United ‘learn’ asking price of Marc Guehi plus more transfer rumours - Manchester Evening News

 

21/10/2023 Man Utd were quoted £60m

 

wonder why they didn’t fork it out 🤔

[Andrew 4649]

7 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

wonder why they didn’t fork it out 🤔

 

Aye, their decision making has proven to be excellent in the time since

 

 

[Chaser 1174]

I disagree Guehi was a £30m player before the Euros. He's been considered to be a talent for at least 2 seasons, he's got pace and he's a solid tackler. He showed in the Euros that he can play under huge pressure and to be fair to him, he was probably the most  consistent player in the side throughout. 

I agree with the opinion of others on here that we should get less concerned about money. It's a problem which football has created where fans debate on the value of players more than their worth on the team. I think taking the fee out of it, Guehi definitely improves our back line and if that's the difference between one or two league places then that's how we should be looking at it. Small margins when you're pushing for those higher spots. 

[Toonpack 8680]

1 hour ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

And tbh, if we do sign him, i don’t think he starts when everyone is fit - Schar and Botman are better players, surely?

Schar is getting on and there’s no guarantee Botman will come back the same as he was. Guehi can play either CB spot (doesn’t he play left CB for Palace?) he’s young and would ultimately be Schar’s successor while also being a bit of Botman insurance.

[strawb 4069]

One of the main things I hate about sky is fucking transfer windows.

Its created an industry for reporters standing outside clubs for a month and mongs on Twitter pretending to know anything. It’s so fucking tedious.

 

[The Fish 10422]

3 minutes ago, strawb said:

One of the main things I hate about sky is fucking transfer windows.

Its created an industry for reporters standing outside clubs for a month and mongs on Twitter pretending to know anything. It’s so fucking tedious.

 

So clearly them wanting to get in on the whole US Draft nonsense.

[Polarboy 2311]

24 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

Guehi is a solid but unspectacular centre back. £50m seems loads for him let alone the mooted £65m. We could probably go and get Tomori from Milan for less than £40m, or the German international we were linked with earlier in the window. I’d rather we did that then spunk £50-60m on the quality right winger were crying out for.
 

If we end up blowing the rest of our summer budget on Guehi, I think it’s been an average transfer window rather than a good one because we still have two Steve Bruce era players as our main options at RW.  

 

Well there's clearly something about Guehi that Howe et al value over the players you mentioned. Players that both failed to make their countries Euros squads. 

[Kid Dynamite 6816]

33 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

wonder why they didn’t fork it out 🤔

Cos they have 50p heed on stupid wages and worry about making the same mistake twice  

[wykikitoon 19293]

50 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

Guehi is a solid but unspectacular centre back. £50m seems loads for him let alone the mooted £65m. We could probably go and get Tomori from Milan for less than £40m, or the German international we were linked with earlier in the window. I’d rather we did that then spunk £50-60m on the quality right winger were crying out for.
 

If we end up blowing the rest of our summer budget on Guehi, I think it’s been an average transfer window rather than a good one because we still have two Steve Bruce era players as our main options at RW.  

What RW would you spunk £60m who has Prem experience and a proven goal scorer / goal provider?