Deep shit?

[ewerk 33226]

I think Everton's hopes of staying up rest largely on Calvert-Lewin finding his scoring boots again. He's largely been shite since he came back from injury.

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 4269]

  On 21/02/2022 at 11:01, Craig said:

 

Yeah I agree. It's similar to the Southampton & Coventry factor years ago - because they were perennial survivors, the expectation is they'll continue to get out of it. I too think they'll have enough to get out of it, but at the present, looking at objectively, I'd say we stand a better chance of surviving than them. 

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I think they might go down just because this is brand new territory for them. They just aren’t used to the stress of playing to stay up. Another couple of bad results and the crowd will be on their backs again and we can see how that plays out from the shit down the road.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Kevin Carr's Gloves

[PaddockLad 19013]

  On 21/02/2022 at 11:13, ewerk said:

I think Everton's hopes of staying up rest largely on Calvert-Lewin finding his scoring boots again. He's largely been shite since he came back from injury.

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That and he seemed to play better in front of empty stadiums...that was his best season by a country mile. He's a target for the boo boys for some reason. My Everton mate is convinced of this.  He'll never realise his potential there,  especially now his mentor Big Dunc has left. ...

Edited February 21, 2022 by PaddockLad

[Craig 6808]

  On 21/02/2022 at 11:41, PaddockLad said:

 

That and he seemed to play better in front of empty stadiums...that was his best season by a country mile. He's a target for the boo boys for some reason. My Everton mate is convinced of this.  He'll never realise his potential there,  especially now his mentor Big Dunc has left. ...

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As far as I know Ferguson is still there.

[The Fish 11323]

  On 21/02/2022 at 11:35, Kevin Carr's Gloves said:

I think they might go down just because this is brand new territory for them. They just aren’t used to the stress of playing to stay up. Another couple of bad results and the crowd will be on their backs again and we can see how that plays out from the shit down the road.

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Was it Ben Foster who said that the Everton fans were so toxic his team knew that if they put a bit of pressure on early doors they'd sharp turn on their own team. 

 

Aye it was; 

 

 

 

 

 

[Christmas Tree 5105]

[Gemmill 49975]

Right, fanny magnets, it's the moment you've all been waiting for.  Spreadsheet update time - now with extra places featured, and a brand new column (with conditional formatting!)...!

 

 

Key points: 

• Howe's points per game improves again, as does Hodgson's and Dyche's
• Every other manager below us lost, so their PPG is headed in the wrong direction at the wrong time
• The final column shows the difference between the PPG required to get to 36 points (arbitrary) between now and the end of the season, and the PPG that that manager has achieved so far. I've added formatting so that if you're outperforming you get Green, if you're within 0.5 points of what's needed you get Amber, and if you need more than a 0.5 points per game improvement you get Red.
• Obvious thing to notice here is, firstly Howe is the ONLY manager in the list that is currently beating the PPG required to get to 36, and beating it fairly comfortably
• Second obvious thing is that Watford and Norwich are the two that look to have the biggest mountain to climb. Not exactly new news, but it does underline just how much of an improvement they'd have to muster to escape the drop
• Of the teams remaining, it looks like a straight 4-way scrap to avoid 18th - Lampard has the least to do in terms of PPG* (much to my disgust), but it's marginal. Leeds have a new manager incoming, Eriksen is going to start turning out more for Brentford, and Burnley are the form team out of the four, so who knows

*Lampard has the least to do based on Everton's PPG average for season to date, but most of that was Rafa's work. Lampard is currently doing worse that that, but he's only had 4 games in charge in the league (P4, W1, L3), so I've used their season to date average instead.

 

This concludes the lecture. Class dismissed. 

[toonotl 3431]

Nerd!!

 

Also, thanks. These posts always make for some interesting reading.

[MrBass 3045]

  On 27/02/2022 at 06:07, Gemmill said:

Right, fanny magnets, it's the moment you've all been waiting for.  Spreadsheet update time - now with extra places featured, and a brand new column (with conditional formatting!)...!

 

 

Key points: 

• Howe's points per game improves again, as does Hodgson's and Dyche's
• Every other manager below us lost, so their PPG is headed in the wrong direction at the wrong time
• The final column shows the difference between the PPG required to get to 36 points (arbitrary) between now and the end of the season, and the PPG that that manager has achieved so far. I've added formatting so that if you're outperforming you get Green, if you're within 0.5 points of what's needed you get Amber, and if you need more than a 0.5 points per game improvement you get Red.
• Obvious thing to notice here is, firstly Howe is the ONLY manager in the list that is currently beating the PPG required to get to 36, and beating it fairly comfortably
• Second obvious thing is that Watford and Norwich are the two that look to have the biggest mountain to climb. Not exactly new news, but it does underline just how much of an improvement they'd have to muster to escape the drop
• Of the teams remaining, it looks like a straight 4-way scrap to avoid 18th - Lampard has the least to do in terms of PPG* (much to my disgust), but it's marginal. Leeds have a new manager incoming, Eriksen is going to start turning out more for Brentford, and Burnley are the form team out of the four, so who knows

*Lampard has the least to do based on Everton's PPG average for season to date, but most of that was Rafa's work. Lampard is currently doing worse that that, but he's only had 4 games in charge in the league (P4, W1, L3), so I've used their season to date average instead.

 

This concludes the lecture. Class dismissed. 

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CONDITIONAL FORMATTING!! 

[Gemmill 49975]

 

Last time I posted this (within the last week or two), 538 gave us a 35% chance of being relegated. That's now halved. 

 

They reckon Watford and Norwich are all but sunk, and have Leeds the most likely to join them, which probably sounds about right. Although I'm holding out hope for Everton. 

 

 

[Christmas Tree 5105]

Need a bigger gap to open up before I’ll be confident  

 

If Burnley and Everton win their games in hand then that’s Leeds 3rd bottom on 23 and us on 25.

 

[Alex 36725]

  On 27/02/2022 at 13:03, Gemmill said:

 

Last time I posted this (within the last week or two), 538 gave us a 35% chance of being relegated. That's now halved. 

 

They reckon Watford and Norwich are all but sunk, and have Leeds the most likely to join them, which probably sounds about right. Although I'm holding out hope for Everton. 

 

 

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Think I’d go Norwich, Watford, Brentford although it’s a toss up between the just two. I think Leeds have goals in them though, which a new manager might help with. Brentford’s form is abysmal 

[Gemmill 49975]

  On 27/02/2022 at 14:44, Alex said:

Think I’d go Norwich, Watford, Brentford although it’s a toss up between the just two. I think Leeds have goals in them though, which a new manager might help with. Brentford’s form is abysmal 

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I just dunno how you stop the number of goals Leeds are letting in. If you think how many games (and a transfer window) it's taken for Howe to make us hard to beat, and we weren't shipping goals like Leeds are. And then how many games are left. They have to score a minimum of 2 goals to have an outside chance of a win or even a chance of a draw atm. 

 

With Brentford as well, Eriksen looked class when he came on. He could make a canny difference for them. Mind, I suppose you'd say the same for Bamford and Philips at Leeds. 

[Monkeys Fist 45152]

  On 24/02/2022 at 11:53, Christmas Tree said:

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You’d think our new owners would get him a seat on a bigger private jet, mind. 

[Craig 6808]

  On 27/02/2022 at 17:25, Monkeys Fist said:

You’d think our new owners would get him a seat on a bigger private jet, mind. 

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Got mixed up with Ryan Fraser's quite clearly.

[ewerk 33226]

  On 27/02/2022 at 13:03, Gemmill said:

 

Last time I posted this (within the last week or two), 538 gave us a 35% chance of being relegated. That's now halved. 

 

They reckon Watford and Norwich are all but sunk, and have Leeds the most likely to join them, which probably sounds about right. Although I'm holding out hope for Everton. 

 

 

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So there’s still a chance of Champions League football next season!

[Dougle 3682]

[Ayatollah Hermione 14683]

 Watching some of the shite in the top half, we should be knocking right on that door next season

[OTF 8419]

  On 27/02/2022 at 17:27, Craig said:

Got mixed up with Ryan Fraser's quite clearly.

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 RyanAir.

[trophyshy 7332]

  On 17/02/2022 at 14:33, Rayvin said:

1 - Brentford (A)

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[Gemmill 49975]

 

8% chance of relegation according to the yanks. 

[trophyshy 7332]

  On 17/02/2022 at 14:33, Rayvin said:

3 - Brighton (H)

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[Dr Gloom 23642]

Anyone fancy a top half finish?

[trophyshy 7332]

  On 06/03/2022 at 00:32, Dr Gloom said:

Anyone fancy a top half finish?

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Yes.  Have done for weeks. 
 

[RobinRobin 12486]

  On 05/03/2022 at 20:33, Gemmill said:

 

8% chance of relegation according to the yanks. 

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Not sure we can rely on the Yanks at the moment