Deep shit?

[Renton 21627]

We're currently 3 points of 9th now. Which is quite incredible. Unfortunately I am away for the Leicester game. Apologies.

[The Fish 10858]

It’s not a prediction thing, it’s a projection thing. 
Given what’s happened, what’s more likely to happen. 
 

Can’t account for Man Utd deciding to fuck off playing football for the day. 
 

Next season I need to find a better weighting system. Everton beating Man Utd was against all form, bookies were agreeing with me, so shut it CT

[Craig 6682]

Hear me out on this - time to look up, not down. If things go as shown below, and I think it's not beyond the realms of possibility, we could find ourselves in 9th place at the end of Monday 25th April.

CURRENT TABLE

9. Palace P30 Pts37

10. Leicester P28 Pts37

11. Brighton P31 Pts37

12. Villa P31 Pts36

13. Southampton P31 Pts36
14. Newcastle P31 Pts34

GAMES COMING UP
PALACE

10/04 - Leicester (H) - Draw

17/04 - Chelsea (A) - Lose
20/04 - Newcastle (A) - Lose

25/04 - Leeds (H) - Win

 

LEICESTER

10/04 - Palace (A) - Draw

17/04 - Newcastle (A) - Lose

20/04 - Everton (A) - Win
23/04 - Villa (H) - Draw

 

BRIGHTON

16/04 - Spurs (A) - Lose

20/04 - Man City (A) - Lose
24/04 - Southampton (H) - Draw

 

VILLA

23/04 - Leicester (A) - Draw

 

SOUTHAMPTON

16/04 - Arsenal (H) - Lose

21/04 - Burnley (A) - Win

24/04 - Brighton (A) - Draw

 

NEWCASTLE

17/04 - Leicester (H) - Win

20/04 - Palace (H) - Win 

23/04 - Norwich (A) - Win

 

POSSIBLE TABLE

9. Newcastle P34 Pts43

10. Leicester P32 Pts42

11. Palace P34 Pts41

12. Southampton P34 Pts40

13. Brighton P34 Pts38

14. Villa P32 Pts37
 

[wykikitoon 20168]

Welcome to team Sausage 

[trophyshy 7083]

Top ten is fucking well on lads. On all the way.  Hard. Hard on.  

[Dr Gloom 21924]

5 hours ago, Renton said:

We're currently 3 points of 9th now. Which is quite incredible. Unfortunately I am away for the Leicester game. Apologies.

ban him 

[Craig 6682]

3 hours ago, wykikitoon said:

Welcome to team Sausage 

Having placed £10 @ 33/1 on us finishing top 10 the day after the takeover I think you’ll find I’ve always been Team Sausage 😎

Edited April 9, 2022 by Craig

[trophyshy 7083]

Betting slip or GTFO. 

[Craig 6682]

28 minutes ago, trophyshy said:

Betting slip or GTFO. 

 

[trophyshy 7083]

Nice edit.  I’ll show you mine if we manage it. 😅

[Dougle 3337]

[Alex 35095]

By my reckoning we’ve gone from averaging less than 1/2 point per match to nearly 1.5 ppm since Howe took over. Or 8th place in the form table in that period. 

[Craig 6682]

Just now, Alex said:

By my reckoning we’ve gone from averaging less than 1/2 point per match to nearly 1.5 ppm since Howe took over. Or 8th place in the form table in that period. 

Hugely encouraging for next season … and that’s before any investment!

[The Fish 10858]

 

 

ARS 0 

AST 0 

BRE 3

BRI 3

BUR 0

CHE 3

CRY 0

EVE 3

LEE 3

LEI 3

LIV 1

MCI 1

MUN 0

NEW 3

NOR 3

SOU 0

TOT 3

WAT 0

WHU 0

WOL 0

 

I'm not too disheartened with that, especially as I haven't been maintaining the spreadsheet throughout the season. As such I've not been able to include recent form. Still, I need to correct the weighting as there are some fixtures where one team was projected to win and the other was projected to draw, and that shouldn't happen. 

 

England Football Results Betting Odds | Premiership Results & Betting Odds (football-data.co.uk) is handy for this kind of thing.

[Isegrim 9780]

CT on Twitter 

[wykikitoon 20168]

Burnley finishing 12th LOL

 

[ewerk 30620]

[Rayvin 5223]

A 1.2% chance of going down..  

 

I think we're good.

[Renton 21627]

Everton still 34.6%  chance of relegation. to be clear here, JUST FOR ONCE, I hope Gemmill is right, JUST FOR ONCE. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Renton

[spongebob toonpants 3997]

53 minutes ago, Renton said:

Everton still 34.6%  chance of relegation. to be clear here, JUST FOR ONCE, I hope Gemmill is right, JUST FOR ONCE. 

If he's wrong I will be taking quite some satisfaction from seeing the demise of the ginger guardiola

[Gemmill 44901]

2 hours ago, Rayvin said:

A 1.2% chance of going down..  

 

I think we're good.

 

Almost twice as much chance of finishing 10th as getting relegated too. 

[The Fish 10858]

18 hours ago, Renton said:

Everton still 34.6%  chance of relegation. to be clear here, JUST FOR ONCE, I hope Gemmill is right, JUST FOR ONCE. 

The problem with all projections, as you undoubtedly know,  is that it can only use past performance and 'best guess' as a guide for what is to come. It doesn't necessarily take into account the yearly phenomenon of the form of teams with nowt to play for, suddenly becoming unpredictable. Or the performance uptick we've seen so often in Burnley towards the end of the season. 

All that is saying is that if things stay largely the same, the have a 1 in 3 chance of going down. But I think things won't stay largely the same. I thnk Burnley will claw their way out of it. Or, more accurately, I think Frank will steer Everton back into it.

 

Edited April 12, 2022 by The Fish

[Renton 21627]

9 minutes ago, The Fish said:

The problem with all projections, as you undoubtedly know,  is that it can only use past performance and 'best guess' as a guide for what is to come. It doesn't necessarily take into account the yearly phenomenon of the form of teams with nowt to play for, suddenly becoming unpredictable. Or the performance uptick we've seen so often in Burnley towards the end of the season. 

All that is saying is that if things stay largely the same, the have a 1 in 3 chance of going down. But I think things won't stay largely the same. I thnk Burnley will claw their way out of it. Or, more accurately, I think Frank will steer Everton back into it.

 

 

I don't think Burnley can draw their way out of this, they need a couple of wins imo. One could be from us mind. I do think Everton are right in the shit still, but that win against ManU might prove huge. 

[The Fish 10858]

14 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

I don't think Burnley can draw their way out of this, they need a couple of wins imo. One could be from us mind. I do think Everton are right in the shit still, but that win against ManU might prove huge. 

 

Aye that throws the cat among the pigeons and no mistake. Not least because Watford and Burnley lost games that, on paper, looked like decent opportunities to pick up at least a point. However, Burnley are capable of grinding out at least a draw from their final 8 games. I think Everton will lose their next 4. If they're still within a couple of points of eachother come the final 3 games, I think it'll be Burnley that survive. 

 

I think the away fans will be begging Dubravka to throw one in the net if a Burnley win means Everton go down.

 

Not to get too conspiratorial, but it makes sense for every midtable side to want Everton to go down. With the right manager that club could be comfortably ensconced in the middle of the league. With them out of the picture for a season at least it means an easier season for Southampton, Villa et al.

[Renton 21627]

19 minutes ago, The Fish said:

 

Aye that throws the cat among the pigeons and no mistake. Not least because Watford and Burnley lost games that, on paper, looked like decent opportunities to pick up at least a point. However, Burnley are capable of grinding out at least a draw from their final 8 games. I think Everton will lose their next 4. If they're still within a couple of points of eachother come the final 3 games, I think it'll be Burnley that survive. 

 

I think the away fans will be begging Dubravka to throw one in the net if a Burnley win means Everton go down.

 

Not to get too conspiratorial, but it makes sense for every midtable side to want Everton to go down. With the right manager that club could be comfortably ensconced in the middle of the league. With them out of the picture for a season at least it means an easier season for Southampton, Villa et al.

True, but it's tight in the middle and 3 points on the last day could mean the difference of 10 million quid in prize money, and the knock on implications for FFP. It's a great dilemma to have in any case.