Deep shit?

[Monkeys Fist 42458]

I love a good bemusement park 

[Meenzer 15531]

[Howay 12496]

9 hours ago, Alex said:

Bemused by people pointing out what you’re worried about is highly unlikely?  

It’s possible Norwich could go on a run of 9 straight wins tbf. If they do that and we lose every game it would be looking a bit dodgy for us. 

[The Fish 10857]

On 18/03/2022 at 17:35, Christmas Tree said:

Stats are wonderful but they simply don’t account for teams going on a run (as we have just done) or the quality of teams left to play. 
 

Burnley have the most games available to play, the most easier teams to play and a reputation for getting out of trouble.

 

Burnley have Everton, Norwich, West Ham, Southampton & Watford amongst their fixtures in April.

 

Our April is far tougher.

 

Im pretty certain 3rd spot won’t be a forgone conclusion come 1st May.

 

Yes they do, and yes they do.

 

I'm a comparative moron and I can knock up a serviceable model to account for both of those things.

[Gemmill 44894]

33 minutes ago, The Fish said:

 

Yes they do, and yes they do.

 

I'm a comparative moron and I can knock up a serviceable model to account for both of those things.

 

Do it. 

[Rayvin 5223]

The proof will be in the pudding either way, but honestly CT while you're right about the fixtures and so on (although it's not just Burnley and us down there, even Brighton could get pulled in at this point) I feel like you're not giving enough credit to how the team has played - we were fairly unlucky to lose both of our last two games, and they were away to one very good team and one very desperate team. The fact that we're performing well enough now that even 'poor performances' are resulting in very close, very unfortunate losses - rather than 3-5 nil drubbings - should give us some encouragement.

[Gemmill 44894]

Craig Hope was making the point that if you'd swapped the Chelsea and Everton fixtures, we'd very likely have comfortably dealt with Everton (or at least got a draw) and lost to Chelsea (as expected). Three away games in a week, on top of the pressure situation that the players were in prior to that, took their toll and we lost the last two games. 

 

When we come back from this break, we have an away game at Spurs followed by three home games (Wolves, Leicester, Palace). 

 

By the end of that run of 4 games and possibly early on in that run) I reckon any lingering questions of relegation (however remote) will be completely put to bed. I think it was Hope said the same thing. 

[The Fish 10857]

38 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

Do it. 

Did it for 20/21, but haven't maintained my spreadsheet for 21/22, so it'd be too big of a task as it takes into account; Home and away strength of both sides, GF, and GA for both sides, xG and xGA etc. I'd have to punch all that in for the 29 games played out so far and I cba.

 

It's not just a case of eyeballing the league table and stating Watford are bad, therefore they're a soft touch at the Amex (say). Watford are good on the road, Brighton aren't great at home. But weighted by the respective teams overall performance, you'd still say Brighton were favourites, but it's a lot closer than you might think for teams in 13th and 18th. So a draw is the most likely event.

 

I want to include some stuff to account for league form, and what happens to form once there's nothing to play for, but I need to analyse each on-the-beach team over a large enough sample size to see if it makes a difference? Do they play with more freedom, or is pressure the thing that got them to safety in the first place?

 

 

 

 

Edited March 21, 2022 by The Fish

[Gemmill 44894]

5 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Did it for 20/21, but haven't maintained my spreadsheet for 21/22, so it'd be too big of a task as it takes into account; Home and away strength of both sides, GF, and GA for both sides, xG and xGA etc. I'd have to punch all that in for the 29 games played out so far and I cba.

 

It's not just a case of eyeballing the league table and stating Watford are bad, therefore they're a soft touch at the Amex (say). Watford are good on the road, Brighton aren't great at home. But weighted by the respective teams overall performance, you'd still say Brighton were favourites, but it's a lot closer than you might think for teams in 13th and 18th. So a draw is the most likely event.

 

I want to include some stuff to account for league form, and what happens to form once there's nothing to play for, but I need to analyse each on-the-beach team over a large enough sample size to see if it makes a difference? Do they play with more freedom, or is pressure the thing that got them to safety in the first place?

 

 

 

 

 

A little less conversation, a little more spreadsheet action, DAVE. 

[The Fish 10857]

3 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

A little less conversation, a little more spreadsheet action, DAVE. 

Next season. 

 

Then I can try and set something up using this; https://www.football-data.co.uk/mmz4281/2122/E0.csv

[Christmas Tree 4725]

1 hour ago, The Fish said:

 

Yes they do, and yes they do.

 

I'm a comparative moron and I can knock up a serviceable model to account for both of those things.

I’m not sure you can knock up a model that would have predicted the winning run we’ve just completed given our prior form.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

1 hour ago, Rayvin said:

The proof will be in the pudding either way, but honestly CT while you're right about the fixtures and so on (although it's not just Burnley and us down there, even Brighton could get pulled in at this point) I feel like you're not giving enough credit to how the team has played - we were fairly unlucky to lose both of our last two games, and they were away to one very good team and one very desperate team. The fact that we're performing well enough now that even 'poor performances' are resulting in very close, very unfortunate losses - rather than 3-5 nil drubbings - should give us some encouragement.

I think we’ve played well but we’ve also played quite a few teams that have been out of form or struggling for various reasons.

 

The proof will indeed be in the pudding and I absolutely hope I’m 100% wrong, but April looks a very tough month imo.

[Toonpack 9424]

Exclusive pic of CT's doormat:

 

 

[Dr Gloom 21924]

10 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

I think we’ve played well but we’ve also played quite a few teams that have been out of form or struggling for various reasons.

 

The proof will indeed be in the pudding and I absolutely hope I’m 100% wrong, but April looks a very tough month imo.

 

how many points do you think we need to survive and what makes you worried we won't get them in the remaining 9 games?

[Christmas Tree 4725]

9 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

 

how many points do you think we need to survive and what makes you worried we won't get them in the remaining 9 games?

Ive no idea. I’m not saying we are definitely going down, I’m just saying I think it will get a lot closer by the end of April.

 

It has a lot to do with how the teams below us, with games in hand and easier run ins do.

 

The only easier points I see as up for grabs is Norwich and Burnley away. 
 

The way everyone is going on here I have no cause for alarm and I simply have a defective sausage. Hope you are all right. Obviously!

Edited March 21, 2022 by Christmas Tree

[Alex 35083]

1 hour ago, Christmas Tree said:

I’m not sure you can knock up a model that would have predicted the winning run we’ve just completed given our prior form.

So what you’re saying is that it was so unlikely and unusual that you can see a few other teams emulating it? Even though they haven’t looked like doing so and didn’t strengthen anywhere near as much in January and didn’t go from having an absolutely dog shit manager to getting a very good one? Cheers for clearing that up  

[Howay 12496]

 

 

I think since Howe has come in we’ve lost 1 game at home (Man City), we have 3 home games coming up in a row after Spurs. I can’t see us not getting a win against at least one side in that stretch, we also play Norwich and Burnley, so out of those 5 games I’d say at absolute worst given how we play and how little we concede (1 goal is the max we’ve conceded in a game in 2022 iirc) we’d win 2 of those which gives us 37 points even if we lost the other 7. I cannot see 4 of the teams above us reaching that tally. Of course it’s not mathematically impossible but it’s highly fucking unlikely. 
 

Worth noting too, people are writing off any hope of points against Liverpool but their run up to that game is fucking brutal and we are stubborn as fuck and great at home, I don’t think it’s mental to think we could even get a draw in that one. 

[Christmas Tree 4725]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

So what you’re saying is that it was so unlikely and unusual that you can see a few other teams emulating it? Even though they haven’t looked like doing so and didn’t strengthen anywhere near as much in January and didn’t go from having an absolutely dog shit manager to getting a very good one? Cheers for clearing that up  

 

 

Not at all.

Brentford are 1 point behind & Leeds 2 so both are very much already “around us”.

 

Everton “if” they win their 2 games in hand are on the same points as us.

 

So really we are only looking at whether Burnley, who also have 2 games in hand, can put a bit of a run together.

 

They have Everton, Southampton, Villa and us at home and Norwich and Watford away. 
 

Plenty of points for them to go at if they can up their form a bit.

 

I just don’t see where the over confidence from everybody comes from.

 

Did I mention I’m bemused.  

[The Fish 10857]

2 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

I’m not sure you can knock up a model that would have predicted the winning run we’ve just completed given our prior form.

Predicted it? No, probably not, but shown the likelihood of it? Yeah I could.  

 

At the time, Man Utd weren't in great run of good performances, their previous three results were; 

a 1-0 win at home to Palace (xG 0.87 xGA 0.52),

then a laboured and somewhat fortunate draw against Young Boys in the CL,

then a laboured win over Norwich.

 

So you've a team out of form (performance-wise), 7th in the league, away from home. 

 

If you go to whoscored.com, their score predictions for these games run like this;

Man Utd 1-3 Loss

Watford 2-2 draw

Leeds 1-2 Loss

Everton 2-2 draw

Villa 2-2 draw

West Ham 2-2 draw

Brentford 1-0 win

Brighton 2-1 win

Southampton 1-1 draw

 

So even their model said the most likely results would only see us lose twice. Which is some turn around for a team that, at the start of that run were sitting in 19th, with 1 win, and the worst defence in the league.

[Dr Gloom 21924]

1 minute ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

 

Not at all.

Brentford are 1 point behind & Leeds 2 so both are very much already “around us”.

 

Everton “if” they win their 2 games in hand are on the same points as us.

 

So really we are only looking at whether Burnley, who also have 2 games in hand, can put a bit of a run together.

 

They have Everton, Southampton, Villa and us at home and Norwich and Watford away. 
 

Plenty of points for them to go at if they can up their form a bit.

 

I just don’t see where the over confidence from everybody comes from.

 

Did I mention I’m bemused.  

it comes from the fact we only need four or five points from our remaining games to secure survival. We have some difficult teams still to play but we should get those points sooner rather than later. Let’s have this conversation if Burnley are anywhere near us on points with three games to go  

[Christmas Tree 4725]

7 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Predicted it? No, probably not, but shown the likelihood of it? Yeah I could.  

 

At the time, Man Utd weren't in great run of good performances, their previous three results were; 

a 1-0 win at home to Palace (xG 0.87 xGA 0.52),

then a laboured and somewhat fortunate draw against Young Boys in the CL,

then a laboured win over Norwich.

 

So you've a team out of form (performance-wise), 7th in the league, away from home. 

 

If you go to whoscored.com, their score predictions for these games run like this;

Man Utd 1-3 Loss

Watford 2-2 draw

Leeds 1-2 Loss

Everton 2-2 draw

Villa 2-2 draw

West Ham 2-2 draw

Brentford 1-0 win

Brighton 2-1 win

Southampton 1-1 draw

 

So even their model said the most likely results would only see us lose twice. Which is some turn around for a team that, at the start of that run were sitting in 19th, with 1 win, and the worst defence in the league.

Just had a look but can’t see a section to see their predictions for previous games. Can you link it?

[Alex 35083]

17 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

 

Not at all.

Brentford are 1 point behind & Leeds 2 so both are very much already “around us”.

 

Everton “if” they win their 2 games in hand are on the same points as us.

 

So really we are only looking at whether Burnley, who also have 2 games in hand, can put a bit of a run together.

 

They have Everton, Southampton, Villa and us at home and Norwich and Watford away. 
 

Plenty of points for them to go at if they can up their form a bit.

 

I just don’t see where the over confidence from everybody comes from.

 

Did I mention I’m bemused.  

You can 50/1 at the bookies, mate. 

[The Fish 10857]

2 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

 

Not at all.

Brentford are 1 point behind & Leeds 2 so both are very much already “around us”.

 

Everton “if” they win their 2 games in hand are on the same points as us.

 

So really we are only looking at whether Burnley, who also have 2 games in hand, can put a bit of a run together.

 

They have Everton, Southampton, Villa and us at home and Norwich and Watford away. 
 

Plenty of points for them to go at if they can up their form a bit.

 

I just don’t see where the over confidence from everybody comes from.

 

Did I mention I’m bemused.  

 

Everton's games in hand are away to Watford and away to Crystal Palace. Everton have won once away from home all season, and that was under Benitez at the beginning of the season against Brighton.

Burnley's game in hand is Villa. 

 

Burnley v Everton means either both teams drop a potential 3pts, or one of them gets nowt. their other games are, on paper, an opportunity to pick up points, however, Burnley aren't 19th because of magic. They've won 3 Premier League games. From where do you conjure the phantasm of a good Burnley? If they were performing well I'd maybe be able to make a case for it, but they've failed to scored in 6/9 last games and only Norwich have scored fewer across the season. You can't win if you don't score. 

[The Fish 10857]

20 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said:

Just had a look but can’t see a section to see their predictions for previous games. Can you link it?

Newcastle United 1-1 Manchester United - Premier League 2021/2022 Statistical Preview (whoscored.com)

[Christmas Tree 4725]

19 minutes ago, Alex said:

You can 50/1 at the bookies, mate. 

22/1 at Paddy Power