The Fish 10857 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 fwiw, I agree that there's a tiny chance of us going down, so tiny it's basically smaller than CT's button mushroom on a cold day. That said, your PpG forecast model doesn't account for the strength of opposition that each club faces. It reduces every game to a league average. There are some games that are all but unwinnable for the teams down there, (away to Chelsea, Liverpool or Man city e.g.). Also, Everton are more likely to beat Leeds at Goodison than they are Watford, due to their respective strength on the road. Also, Watford have actually only conceded 21 goals on the road, 1 fewer than Man Utd, yet have won 8 fewer points. How does your model handle that shit? huh? So, in your next draft, please weight the strengths of each team before forecasting. Ta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 35083 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 You can get 40/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44894 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, The Fish said: fwiw, I agree that there's a tiny chance of us going down, so tiny it's basically smaller than CT's button mushroom on a cold day. That said, your PpG forecast model doesn't account for the strength of opposition that each club faces. It reduces every game to a league average. There are some games that are all but unwinnable for the teams down there, (away to Chelsea, Liverpool or Man city e.g.). Also, Everton are more likely to beat Leeds at Goodison than they are Watford, due to their respective strength on the road. Also, Watford have actually only conceded 21 goals on the road, 1 fewer than Man Utd, yet have won 8 fewer points. How does your model handle that shit? huh? So, in your next draft, please weight the strengths of each team before forecasting. Ta Dave, two things. Firstly, this is a blunt tool designed to show how difficult it would be for us to go down from this position. Secondly, FUCK OFF DAVE. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44894 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 We've made some decent inroads on the Other 14 Baseline Tracker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21924 Posted March 18, 2022 Author Share Posted March 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, The Fish said: fwiw, I agree that there's a tiny chance of us going down, so tiny it's basically smaller than CT's button mushroom on a cold day. That said, your PpG forecast model doesn't account for the strength of opposition that each club faces. It reduces every game to a league average. There are some games that are all but unwinnable for the teams down there, (away to Chelsea, Liverpool or Man city e.g.). Also, Everton are more likely to beat Leeds at Goodison than they are Watford, due to their respective strength on the road. Also, Watford have actually only conceded 21 goals on the road, 1 fewer than Man Utd, yet have won 8 fewer points. How does your model handle that shit? huh? So, in your next draft, please weight the strengths of each team before forecasting. Ta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4725 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Stats are wonderful but they simply don’t account for teams going on a run (as we have just done) or the quality of teams left to play. Burnley have the most games available to play, the most easier teams to play and a reputation for getting out of trouble. Burnley have Everton, Norwich, West Ham, Southampton & Watford amongst their fixtures in April. Our April is far tougher. Im pretty certain 3rd spot won’t be a forgone conclusion come 1st May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 35083 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Statistical predictions take into account the things you seem to think they don’t. It’s all based on probable outcomes by taking into account almost every possible result. Of course we could go down but it’s highly unlikely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44894 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 27 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said: Stats are wonderful but they simply don’t account for teams going on a run (as we have just done) or the quality of teams left to play. Burnley have the most games available to play, the most easier teams to play and a reputation for getting out of trouble. Burnley have Everton, Norwich, West Ham, Southampton & Watford amongst their fixtures in April. Our April is far tougher. Im pretty certain 3rd spot won’t be a forgone conclusion come 1st May. Burnley have needed to go on this run that you're so scared of FOR FUCKING AGES. They're not waiting until the last minute to start it because they're some Premier League bogeyman that should have us all hiding behind the sofa. It isn't happening because they're fucking shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wykikitoon 20153 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 What makes you think Burnley et al will go on a run? They're at the shit end of the table for not being able to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44894 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 You just wait til they get on a roll. And Everton. And Brentford. And Leeds. And if they play one another they'll contrive to BOTH get 3 points (that's why they call them 6 pointers). And then they'll ALL overtake us and we'll get relegated. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meenzer 15531 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, Gemmill said: And if they play one another they'll contrive to BOTH get 3 points (that's why they call them 6 pointers). Do we know he definitely doesn't think this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44894 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, Meenzer said: Do we know he definitely doesn't think this? I'm absolutely banking on it that he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howay 12496 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 (edited) But their past PPG does, for the most part, include the reverse fixtures of the games you’ve highlighted as “winnable” for them. They also have to play 2 extra fixtures than us squeezed into the same time frame, so the games in hand can be seen as a chance for them but it’s also extra stress and it’s better to have the points on board tbh. I get there’s always the chance they can go on some run, but surely we can’t operate and worry under that assumption? Even if they did we are also adding in the small chance we will simply stop picking up points. As Gemmill says too even if Burnley did go on some insane run, they’d be beating everyone around them which impacts those teams chances of going above us. Brentford hammered them 2-0 as well last game btw, absolutely played them off the park too, so I’m not sure we can look at the games you listed as really good chances to win. They’re fucking shite. I’m also a bit confused why West Ham away has snuck into the list of winnable fixtures for Burnley? We beat them but Burnley haven’t shown anything near what we have. That’s an incredibly tough fixture for them. Edited March 18, 2022 by Howay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trophyshy 7083 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 47 minutes ago, Gemmill said: You just wait til they get on a roll. And Everton. And Brentford. And Leeds. And if they play one another they'll contrive to BOTH get 3 points (that's why they call them 6 pointers). And then they'll ALL overtake us and we'll get relegated. To League One. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4725 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 I’m bemused by all this TBH as the point I’m constantly making is a couple of wins simply puts Burnley on 27 points which leaves them only 4 points off us. That then leaves 4 or 5 clubs in danger of that 3rd spot. Obviously I hope I’m wrong but I just don’t see anything that leads to the over confidence on display. Anyway, I’ll give a rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21924 Posted March 18, 2022 Author Share Posted March 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said: I’m bemused by all this TBH as the point I’m constantly making is a couple of wins simply puts Burnley on 27 points which leaves them only 4 points off us. That then leaves 4 or 5 clubs in danger of that 3rd spot. Obviously I hope I’m wrong but I just don’t see anything that leads to the over confidence on display. Anyway, I’ll give a rest. The confidence comes from the 9 points between us and the relegation zone. Relegation would take a monumental fuck up from here - plus unbelievable turnarounds from most of the teams below us. Not impossible but highly unlikely. We probably only need about another four points. Just a question of when rather than if we get them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toonpack 9426 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Gemmill said: Bollocks, I should have waited til after Leeds play tonight. Also, your spreadsheets say Everton are staying up 😱 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44894 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Yeah I'll be annoyed. But if it means they keep Lampard as manager for longer, it'll mean they're out of our road as we look for top 8 next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howay 12496 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Christmas Tree said: I’m bemused by all this TBH as the point I’m constantly making is a couple of wins simply puts Burnley on 27 points which leaves them only 4 points off us. That then leaves 4 or 5 clubs in danger of that 3rd spot. Obviously I hope I’m wrong but I just don’t see anything that leads to the over confidence on display. Anyway, I’ll give a rest. I wouldn't say it's overconfidence. It's being fairly realistic tbh, I think people are just trying to prove out why they have this "over confident" view. There's just absolutely no evidence Burnley will go on some run, they could but we could also win every game the rest of the season - which actually probably has a higher chance given the way we play v they play. Out of interest I looked at the "strength" of fixtures all the teams we discuss have left, I also added in a "normalized" average which basically took out the 2 postponed fixtures for Everton and Burnley, I gave them all 6 points from those games to show where things would stand. I genuinely don't think it's as clear cut that we have some horrendous run compared to others. Obviously it's based on current league position so it has assumptions in it, but it's more objective than expecting some sudden run from Burnley. I added Brighton as people have been ignoring them, but they're 2 points above us so if we're in it they are too, especially on the back of 6 losses on the bounce and a really fucking difficult fixture list, they play more games away than home and the average position of the away sides they play is Europa League chasing sides . I think the takeaway really is we're 10 points clear of the only team in the relegation zone you could ever argue can catch us (Watford are totally fucked), and our fixture lists aren't absurdly different in strength. Edited March 18, 2022 by Howay 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Carr's Gloves 3894 Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 Well at least Leeds are trying to make it easier for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21924 Posted March 18, 2022 Author Share Posted March 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Kevin Carr's Gloves said: Well at least Leeds are trying to make it easier for us Er… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OTF 7295 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 That Ayling celebration, top drawer stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobinRobin 11281 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 6 hours ago, Christmas Tree said: I’m bemused by all this TBH as the point I’m constantly making is a couple of wins simply puts Burnley on 27 points which leaves them only 4 points off us. That then leaves 4 or 5 clubs in danger of that 3rd spot. Obviously I hope I’m wrong but I just don’t see anything that leads to the over confidence on display. Anyway, I’ll give a rest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 35083 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 14 hours ago, Christmas Tree said: I’m bemused by all this TBH as the point I’m constantly making is a couple of wins simply puts Burnley on 27 points which leaves them only 4 points off us. That then leaves 4 or 5 clubs in danger of that 3rd spot. Obviously I hope I’m wrong but I just don’t see anything that leads to the over confidence on display. Anyway, I’ll give a rest. Bemused by people pointing out what you’re worried about is highly unlikely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howmanheyman 33234 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 I'm bemused by CT's bemusement. (I'm not really). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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