Christmas Tree 4478 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 12 minutes ago, Gemmill said: It's actually illogical, which tbf is perfectly on brand. Says the man who’s scared of dusters 😛 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 42889 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Let's give the chance that we suddenly become the 0.5 point per game kids a probability of 10% which I think is generous. And then let's give the chance that EVERY SINGLE ONE OF Burnley, Everton, Leeds and Brentford, suddenly display the form that we have in the last 8 games, despite ALL EVIDENCE TO THE CONTRARY, a similarly generous 10% chance. Then multiply those probabilities together, you still, DESPITE MY INCREDIBLE GENEROSITY WITH THOSE PROBABILITIES, get a 1% chance that Newcastle are going down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spongebob toonpants 3879 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 17 minutes ago, Gemmill said: Let's give the chance that we suddenly become the 0.5 point per game kids a probability of 10% which I think is generous. And then let's give the chance that EVERY SINGLE ONE OF Burnley, Everton, Leeds and Brentford, suddenly display the form that we have in the last 8 games, despite ALL EVIDENCE TO THE CONTRARY, a similarly generous 10% chance. Then multiply those probabilities together, you still, DESPITE MY INCREDIBLE GENEROSITY WITH THOSE PROBABILITIES, get a 1% chance that Newcastle are going down. Maths, Bitch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 34194 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 33 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said: Aye, we’d have to go on a run akin to the early months of the season to go down from here. Not happening with Howe in charge and the likes of shelvey playing for their futures. There’s a reason they’ve all raised their game and shelvey issued an apology to the fans for a slightly below par performance. They know this club is going places and they want to be involved. It looked bleak in January but we got most of the points required to stay up from this unbeaten run, massively taking the pressure off ahead of the tricky final four games of the season. That’s another good point imo. We’re a fair way from complacency but, like you say, the points on the board allow us to play with a degree of freedom / without fear. That in itself should lead to good performances relative to where we were a month ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5129 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 It'll be interesting to take our end of season points and see what it would have looked like over the full season, when the time comes. I honestly can't wait to start looking forward to next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJS 4270 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 (edited) Thing that settled me down is that looking at the remaining games in general, there are shit loads of six pointers among the bottom eight or nine. For us to worry 2 or more strugglers would have to start beating the top teams only as they can't all take enough points taking into account cross fixtures. This is precisely what did for the mackems when they were relegated to league one when the last round of fixtures meant either Bolton or Burton were safe as they played each other. Edited March 8, 2022 by NJS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaddockLad 16617 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 49 minutes ago, Gemmill said: Let's give the chance that we suddenly become the 0.5 point per game kids a probability of 10% which I think is generous. And then let's give the chance that EVERY SINGLE ONE OF Burnley, Everton, Leeds and Brentford, suddenly display the form that we have in the last 8 games, despite ALL EVIDENCE TO THE CONTRARY, a similarly generous 10% chance. Then multiply those probabilities together, you still, DESPITE MY INCREDIBLE GENEROSITY WITH THOSE PROBABILITIES, get a 1% chance that Newcastle are going down. I've just completed a night school equivalent Maths GCSE (passed final exam with 79% so about to start A level 😎) so am insisting that you show your working on this or your answer will be disregarded 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 42889 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 The sch 28 minutes ago, PaddockLad said: I've just completed a night school equivalent Maths GCSE (passed final exam with 79% so about to start A level 😎) so am insisting that you show your working on this or your answer will be disregarded The school system will NEVER tame me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom 14002 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Is there any meaningful comparison to be made with either of our relegation seasons? 28 Points in March is pretty safe stuff I imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4478 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Be nice if we could mathematically clinch it at home to Wolves (tickets on sale today btw in case anyones forgotten). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isegrim 9580 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tom said: Is there any meaningful comparison to be made with either of our relegation seasons? 28 Points in March is pretty safe stuff I imagine. There are still a couple of hard games left and we won’t always get away as we did last Saturday. We still need to get to at least 35 points to be safe and the earlier the better. At least we could do some serious “planning” for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom 14002 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said: Be nice if we could mathematically clinch it at home to Wolves (tickets on sale today btw in case anyones forgotten). That’s the match my cousin got us hospitality for, so yes it would 8 o’clock on a Friday night. Tasty! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4478 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tom said: That’s the match my cousin got us hospitality for, so yes it would 8 o’clock on a Friday night. Tasty! I’ve just booked tickets and assumed it was a Saturday 3.00pm. At least I’ll have an extra day to get over my hangover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom 14002 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Yeh it was moved! I stipulated that when he was buying the tickets like. Basically said it could take place between Friday evening and Monday evening. I wasn’t expecting a Friday though! Hopefully Wilson & K-Tripz™️ are back and we put on a show 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig 6594 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 19 minutes ago, Tom said: Is there any meaningful comparison to be made with either of our relegation seasons? 28 Points in March is pretty safe stuff I imagine. 2021/22 - P26 W6 D10 L10 GF30 GA46 GD-16 PTS28 - 14th 2015/16 - P26 W6 D6 L14 GF27 GA49 GD-22 PTS24 - 18th 2008/09 - P26 W6 D10 L10 GF33 GA42 GD-9 PTS28 - 15th So we're pretty much on par with how we performed during the first of Ashley's relegation. The big difference is in our mentality - we dropped off the cliff that season, this year we're simply getting stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10500 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 13 hours ago, Christmas Tree said: Where does the 36 points required come from The average pt total required to survive since 1995/96 is actually 36pts. The last 10 years, the average points tally needed for survival was 34. Admittedly dragged down by the piss poor 29pts required to survive last season, but the facts are clear; 36 pts will, in most PL seasons, keep you up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 42889 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Tom said: Is there any meaningful comparison to be made with either of our relegation seasons? 28 Points in March is pretty safe stuff I imagine. 2015/16: Matchweek 26 - P26 Pts: 24 Points needed to stay up that season: 39 (we went down in 18th on 37) 2008/09: Matchweek 26 - P26 Pts............wait for it..................................28! Points needed to stay up that season: 35 (we went down in 18th on 34) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 42889 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 We were 15th at this point in 2008/09, so we're one place better off at least. You shouldn't have made me do this, Tom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig 6594 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Just now, Gemmill said: We were 15th at this point in 2008/09, so we're one place better off at least. You shouldn't have made me do this, Tom. I posted most of this an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 42889 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 I've got you on ignore, Craig. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarboy 2311 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 🤣 They really are the Scouse mackems. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig 6594 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Polarboy said: 🤣 They really are the Scouse mackems. OK fess up .... which one of you dickheads is putting the fake Scouse accent on and phoned in? No fucking way any Everton fan is that dense, surely? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 42889 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 On 15/01/2022 at 18:49, Gemmill said: Everton might end up worse without Rafa. They're absolutely right in the shit at the minute though, it's daft to claim otherwise. From the 15th of January. I'm the natural born heir to Derek Acorah's throne. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 34194 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 11 minutes ago, Polarboy said: 🤣 They really are the Scouse mackems. Please let this happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig 6594 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Craig said: 2021/22 - P26 W6 D10 L10 GF30 GA46 GD-16 PTS28 - 14th 2015/16 - P26 W6 D6 L14 GF27 GA49 GD-22 PTS24 - 18th 2008/09 - P26 W6 D10 L10 GF33 GA42 GD-9 PTS28 - 15th So we're pretty much on par with how we performed during the first of Ashley's relegation. The big difference is in our mentality - we dropped off the cliff that season, this year we're simply getting stronger. Conversely, this is where we were at 14 matches in each of those campaigns: 2021/22 - P14 W0 D7 L7 GF16 GA30 GD-14 PTS7 - 20th 2015/16 - P14 W2 D4 L 8 GF14 GA30 GD-16 PTS10 - 19th 2008/09 - P14 W3 D5 L6 GF17 GA22 GD-5 PTS14 - 18th Further emphasises the tremendous job Howe has done since coming in. Edited March 8, 2022 by Craig 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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