Coronavirus

[wykikitoon 19996]

Ewerk

What's it like over there?  Pubs still shut?  Do you think thats the right move?

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3860]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.newsclick.in/Covid-19-When-Polemics-Substitutes-for-Science%3famp

[wykikitoon 19996]

I'll give that a read KCG cheers.

Renton / ewerk. Just thinking.  Some people have said the virus could have been in circulation in the UK since Dec, maybe sooner.  If that's the case, do you think the sort of rate of infection would show a line to similar to what we are seeing now and then a lag in deaths?  I.e so we had it in late December say, then it gets into the wider population then we see a spike in deaths in March.  We then lockdown and that causes the deaths to slow and drop off.  Then we unlock.  Then a slow increase and a lag in deaths.  

I am asking as we have had;

Super Saturday where pubs opened.  No spike in deaths

BLM marches. No Spike in deaths

VE Day. No Spike in deaths.

We are slowly (very) seeing an increase in ICU and deaths now it's coming into Autumn.  Why now and not with the above?

[Renton 21449]

29 minutes ago, wykikitoon said:

I'll give that a read KCG cheers.

Renton / ewerk. Just thinking.  Some people have said the virus could have been in circulation in the UK since Dec, maybe sooner.  If that's the case, do you think the sort of rate of infection would show a line to similar to what we are seeing now and then a lag in deaths?  I.e so we had it in late December say, then it gets into the wider population then we see a spike in deaths in March.  We then lockdown and that causes the deaths to slow and drop off.  Then we unlock.  Then a slow increase and a lag in deaths.  

I am asking as we have had;

Super Saturday where pubs opened.  No spike in deaths

BLM marches. No Spike in deaths

VE Day. No Spike in deaths.

We are slowly (very) seeing an increase in ICU and deaths now it's coming into Autumn.  Why now and not with the above?

 

I think we're currently earlier in the wave than before last lockdown, despite the higher rates, which is a result of mass testing. I think you're completely wrong about the admission and death rates, which are actually quite high and  will soon drastically increase imo.

 

 I don't get whats difficult to understand about exponential growth tbh. When the numbers with the virus are very low, doubling it will still result in a low prevalence. But then eventually the number becomes noticeable and boom, its too late. What's happening is entirely in line with what I would expect. Two things are important here, the R rate but also populatuon  prevalence. The latter was very low after a SUCCESSFUL lockdown, now it's not. Numbers would have been increasing the moment the pubs reopened, we just didn't notice it. 

[Monkeys Fist 42200]

What I find interesting about this whole 2nd wave is the angle that’s being punted throughout  the MSM ( sorry Gloomy ), laying blame for it firmly at the door of the public. 
I firmly believe that a government led wholly by the scientific advice would’ve had this under much better control, by being far stricter in the first instance with their lockdown measures. 
Since they weren’t, as they were probably distracted by working out how they and their pals could hoover up some tidy profits from it, here we are facing a 2nd wave, with the same reluctance to stamp it out hard resulting in a far longer, and more economically damaging resurgence. 
But this time, it’s our fault, and I can guarantee that students and the young folk will be painted as the villains this time around- it’s already starting. 
Obvioulsy, these are just my musings on the whole shitshow, but even a basic bastard like me can see the simplicity of how to effectively deal with this. 
Stop the spread of the virus, by strict lockdown, and we’ll soon be safe on our lovely little island. 
 

I’m frankly amazed that the racist cunts haven’t jumped on this as an “oven ready” excuse to implement a 100% ban on filthy foreign types coming in to our sceptred isle, but as I said, they’ll be too busy making blood money out of it to realise their “principles” can be legitimised briefly. 
 

Rant over, as you were lads 

[wykikitoon 19996]

Oh aye, students are getting lambasted for it as are pubs.

Yet numbers were going down when pubs were open.  Unless I am reading the stats wrongly.

[Monkeys Fist 42200]

Pubs are an easy target, which is why, I think, they’ve been so keen to get them open. 
 

Only a relatively small proportion of the population has been going to pubs since they reopened, with, generally, very good measures in place - cashless transactions, sign-in for track and trace, strict distancing ( generally). 
 

Pubs aren’t the source of this, the most obvious to me is supermarkets- no sign-ins, until a few days ago, no mandatory masks, totally disregarded distancing ages ago. 

 

Everyone needs to use them. This is where it’s spreading. 
 

But the big supermarket chains have more sway with the Torys than breweries, so they’ve been left alone.
 

 

[Kid Dynamite 7012]

6 hours ago, wykikitoon said:

 

This bloke was at Uni with Vallance (or whitty one of the cunts) and is an immunologist so knows what he's talking about

So in a nutshell, most people who die from COVID are over 80 so fuck em?

[Kid Dynamite 7012]

2 hours ago, NJS said:

There's no way the UK can learn lessons from Sweden as its a huge sparsely populated country with negligible business and tourist incomings. 

I read somewhere that Sweden is 6x larger in area than the UK and the UK has a population 6x larger than Sweden. So social distancing and track and trace is much, much easier in Sweden vs the UK.

 

My response to people that say "Sweden didn't have a lockdown and their death rate was tiny" is "Florida didn't have a proper lockdown and their death rate is fucking massive!"
 

One exception doesn't make the rule and Sweden is a straw man argument for right wing idiots on Facebook 

[Alex 34954]

37 minutes ago, Monkeys Fist said:

Pubs are an easy target, which is why, I think, they’ve been so keen to get them open. 
 

Only a relatively small proportion of the population has been going to pubs since they reopened, with, generally, very good measures in place - cashless transactions, sign-in for track and trace, strict distancing ( generally). 
 

Pubs aren’t the source of this, the most obvious to me is supermarkets- no sign-ins, until a few days ago, no mandatory masks, totally disregarded distancing ages ago. 

 

Everyone needs to use them. This is where it’s spreading. 
 

But the big supermarket chains have more sway with the Torys than breweries, so they’ve been left alone.
 

 

Good point I think. I’ve avoided supermarkets at busy times since the relaxation of lockdown. Social distancing went completely out of the window and people weren’t wearing marks etc. It seems to have improved a bit, probably as people who haven’t gone full tin foil hat have had a fright with the rise in cases. But you still get people using the exemption excuse and who seem too impatient to observe social distancing. 

Edited September 26, 2020 by Alex

[Dr Gloom 21868]

41 minutes ago, Monkeys Fist said:

Pubs are an easy target, which is why, I think, they’ve been so keen to get them open. 
 

Only a relatively small proportion of the population has been going to pubs since they reopened, with, generally, very good measures in place - cashless transactions, sign-in for track and trace, strict distancing ( generally). 
 

Pubs aren’t the source of this, the most obvious to me is supermarkets- no sign-ins, until a few days ago, no mandatory masks, totally disregarded distancing ages ago. 

 

Everyone needs to use them. This is where it’s spreading. 
 

But the big supermarket chains have more sway with the Torys than breweries, so they’ve been left alone.
 

 

I was reading that the main source of transmission is coming from households mixing. Hospitality is a tiny piece of the pie

[Monkeys Fist 42200]

15 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

I was reading that the main source of transmission is coming from households mixing. Hospitality is a tiny piece of the pie

Yep, it’s all our fault this time around. 
 

Follow our muddled, constantly changing, inadequate rules, or guidelines, (we’re not prepared to say which), or reap the consequences, plebs. 

[Monkeys Fist 42200]

Btw, I’m not denying that some people have acted like utter selfish cunts during all of this, but the Government had a ready-made source* of who/how many that would be to mitigate against it. 
 

*Roughly 17.4 million of them.

 

[wykikitoon 19996]

Since the relaxation of the rules we've still only seen.a small number of people. I've been to the pub twice at most and then it was for a pint. We are having takeaways rather than sit in meals and our groceries are done via online.

 

But yes,.locally you can see most people fucked it off ages ago. But it's all our fault not that cunt in charge and johnson.

 

[Dr Gloom 21868]

3 hours ago, trooper said:

Well the Full National Lockdown seemed to work last time. There were just over 650 new infections daily. The infection numbers are over 10 times that amount now & yet theres no Full Lockdown. I just dont understand it. 

Do you really want a full lockdown again? The government have fucked this up, don’t get me wrong, but we’re going to have to live alongside  this virus for another year, potentially more. We can’t hibernate all winter. Getting the balance between keeping normal life going as much as possible while protecting public health is a massively difficult challenge for policymakers in counties all over the world. 

[Monkeys Fist 42200]

13 minutes ago, wykikitoon said:

Since the relaxation of the rules we've still only seen.a small number of people. I've been to the pub twice at most and then it was for a pint. We are having takeaways rather than sit in meals and our groceries are done via online.

 

But yes,.locally you can see most people fucked it off ages ago. But it's all our fault not that cunt in charge and johnson.

 

Nice. 

[Monkeys Fist 42200]

6 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

Do you really want a full lockdown again? The government have fucked this up, don’t get me wrong, but we’re going to have to live alongside  this virus for another year, potentially more. We can’t hibernate all winter. Getting the balance between keeping normal life going as much as possible while protecting public health is a massively difficult challenge for policymakers in counties all over the world. 

What we need is a new government, one capable of seeing us through this competently. 
But since that’s not going to happen, another full lockdown around November ( too late), is pretty much inevitable. 

[Dr Gloom 21868]

Just now, Monkeys Fist said:

What we need is a new government, one capable of seeing us through this competently. 
But since that’s not going to happen, another full lockdown around November ( too late), is pretty much inevitable. 

Some further restrictions on our freedoms feels inevitable. It not at all desirable and will be damning of the government if we end up there again. I’m not sure we’ll have a repeat of what we saw in March this time. I can see pubs and restaurants potentially closing if cases continue to rise like they have and the rule of six replaced with only being able to mix with your own household again but at the very least they’re going to try to keep schools open this time. 

[Monkeys Fist 42200]

Keeping schools open if they’re trying to eliminate the virus is utterly pointless. 

[Dr Gloom 21868]

It doesn’t seem clear yet that there is much transmission happening in schools. I guess we’ll see soon enough 

[trooper 940]

17 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

Do you really want a full lockdown again? The government have fucked this up, don’t get me wrong, but we’re going to have to live alongside  this virus for another year, potentially more. We can’t hibernate all winter. Getting the balance between keeping normal life going as much as possible while protecting public health is a massively difficult challenge for policymakers in counties all over the world. 

At the minute we have nothing to combat this virus with . As we know it's a human to human transmitted virus. So surely the way to combat it, is limit the amount of human to human contact I.e. full lockdown. Yes there will be economic repercussions but it's not like it's just our country this is affecting. I honestly think they unlocked too soon even another 2 weeks would have helped. Like everyone else I dont have any answers. But given the information we got from Whitty & Valance Boris should have called a full National Lockdown. He came out & said he knew the 2nd wave is coming. So why wait for it to come (like last time) its sheer stupidity

[trooper 940]

15 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

It doesn’t seem clear yet that there is much transmission happening in schools. I guess we’ll see soon enough 

There's a good reason to think it is. I posted an article from The Guardian the other day this was from it.

The number of schools in England badly affected by Covid-19 cases among students and staff has quadrupled in the space of a week, and the number of pupils absent rose by 50%, according to estimates released by the Department for Education.

 

It went on to say close on 1,000 schools in England were affected. With 600,000 pupils absent because of covid related issues. 

Heres the article 

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/sep/22/covid-19-number-of-schools-in-england-not-fully-open-quadruples

Edited September 26, 2020 by trooper

[Dr Gloom 21868]

9 minutes ago, trooper said:

At the minute we have nothing to combat this virus with . As we know it's a human to human transmitted virus. So surely the way to combat it, is limit the amount of human to human contact I.e. full lockdown. Yes there will be economic repercussions but it's not like it's just our country this is affecting. I honestly think they unlocked too soon even another 2 weeks would have helped. Like everyone else I dont have any answers. But given the information we got from Whitty & Valance Boris should have called a full National Lockdown. He came out & said he knew the 2nd wave is coming. So why wait for it to come (like last time) its sheer stupidity

The scientists stopped short of calling for a full national lockdown, tbf. I agree we took too long to lockdown the first time, were too quick to come out and the test and trace here is a shambles. The government has ballsed it up more than most. But the truth is we can’t afford to lockdown forever. We are going to have to strike some kind of balance because this isn’t going away any time soon. 

[trooper 940]

5 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

The scientists stopped short of calling for a full national lockdown, tbf. I agree we took too long to lockdown the first time, were too quick to come out and the test and trace here is a shambles. The government has ballsed it up more than most. But the truth is we can’t afford to lockdown forever. We are going to have to strike some kind of balance because this isn’t going away any time soon. 

Agreed "we cant Lockdown forever" But we could Lockdown for a month to try & get a bit of a head start on it. I can just picture Whitty & Valance shaking their heads as that stupid twat obviously ignored their advice. Which undoubtedly would have been for a full lockdown. 

[wykikitoon 19996]

51 minutes ago, trooper said:

At the minute we have nothing to combat this virus with . As we know it's a human to human transmitted virus. So surely the way to combat it, is limit the amount of human to human contact I.e. full lockdown. Yes there will be economic repercussions but it's not like it's just our country this is affecting. I honestly think they unlocked too soon even another 2 weeks would have helped. Like everyone else I dont have any answers. But given the information we got from Whitty & Valance Boris should have called a full National Lockdown. He came out & said he knew the 2nd wave is coming. So why wait for it to come (like last time) its sheer stupidity

It's not just the economy though is it.

 

The human cost in terms of health mental and physical and then the education of millions of children. It's going to put them back years with a knock on effect for decades.