Coronavirus

[trooper 940]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

You can't rely on the parents in a lot of cases. Many just don't give a fuck or are incapable. Even if it was just these kids coming to school that would be something but it didn't work last time round. 

Miss T's a teacher she worked all through the lockdown. She had a class of key workers kids ages ranged from 5 to 9. There was no curriculum followed it was just a case of containing the kids while the parents went to work. Miss T said it was almost akin to childcare. 

[Renton 21451]

3 minutes ago, trooper said:

Miss T's a teacher she worked all through the lockdown. She had a class of key workers kids ages ranged from 5 to 9. There was no curriculum followed it was just a case of containing the kids while the parents went to work. Miss T said it was almost akin to childcare. 

Yeah, my kids went to school 3 days a week as  children of key workers but didn't get any education, just childcare, that had to be done on the remaining days. Was a nightmare. 

[trooper 940]

Boris Johnson needs to act now, not next week, to tackle a second wave of coronavirus infections across the UK, a senior university lecturer has said.

Asked if he thought a second national lockdown is on the cards, Dr Bharat Pankhania, senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter, told Sky News: "I hope it will never happen because I don't think the United Kingdom has got the stamina for a national lockdown. It's words.

"It is blindingly obvious that if you wanted to keep case numbers down you keep your movements amongst fellow human beings to a minimum.

"It's as simple as that.

"This is a human-to-human spread of infection, so we have invented all manner of things like the 'the rule of six', the curfew at 10pm, and all of that.

"And the one thing, the elephant in the room, that we don't address is 'keep your distance away from fellow human beings - move around with as few human beings as is possible'.

"That is as straightforward as it is."

Proposals are being worked up for a "circuit break" of nationwide restrictions for a short period, which could see essential travel to schools and workplaces continuing, but restaurants and bars would shut - or perhaps run on restricted hours - and different households would be asked not to mix at all.

Asked if this would work and slow the spread of the virus, he replied: "I would love to say yes, but what we learnt from the first lockdown was that the base number, meaning the background level of circulating virus, continued to hover at an uncomfortably high level.

"So where is the evidence that a 'circuit break', meaning a short, sharp shutdown, is going to reduce case numbers?

"Our case numbers have resisted in going down because we just can't have a full lockdown in the way the United Kingdom has been running.

"So unless you have a really, really strict South Korea-style or even China-style shutdown and people don't move around between groups, it is not going to happen."

He continued: "Furthermore, we have got another conundrum, schools are open and we know, we all accept, that the schools need to run, so if schools are open it means a lot of things are open. It also means there will be a generation of new cases in the school environment.

"I think my most simple measure over a long period of time is one good measure... why not just give the good public health advice which is, 'this is human-to-human spread, keep your circulation low amongst fellow human beings'.

"The bottom line is we take personal and mutual responsibility, we say to ourselves 'every action I'm about to take, is this risky?' If it is, don't do it."

"My advice to Prime Minister Boris Johnson is, don't sit there and say 'we are going to do something next week'. It's tomorrow, it's today.

"You say, 'as of today please reduce your circulation in pubs, restaurants, transport, offices and all those places where infection transmits'.

"It's as straightforward as that."

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

40 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

Then the government needs to continue supporting them. The alternative is worse. 

 

Is it? I'm unconvinced that the consequences of lockdown aren't worse. I think the video gemmill  posted showing excess deaths being below average the last few months shows that the virus largely brought forward the deaths of people already near the end.

 

How many people are dying that wouldn't have otherwise? Is it more than, for example, the number of lockdown suicides? Is it a sufficiently large number that doesn't saddle your kids with a country in mountains of debt? 

[Alex 34954]

6 hours ago, Gemmill said:

 

I think the idea that teachers should remain in the firing line while the rest of the country goes on full lockdown is bullshit. Teachers aren't front line health workers, they didn't sign up for this. They sure as shit don't get paid enough for it. 

Surely we could just clap for them a bit. 

[Renton 21451]

59 minutes ago, TheGingerQuiff said:

 

Is it? I'm unconvinced that the consequences of lockdown aren't worse. I think the video gemmill  posted showing excess deaths being below average the last few months shows that the virus largely brought forward the deaths of people already near the end.

 

How many people are dying that wouldn't have otherwise? Is it more than, for example, the number of lockdown suicides? Is it a sufficiently large number that doesn't saddle your kids with a country in mountains of debt? 

 

The maths is dead simple. The virus is doubling every week. In five weeks we'll have half a million cases per day being infected. Say conservatively 5% need hospital treatment, 0.5% die. That means in about 8 weeks we'll be seeing around 25,000 admissions per day and 2500 deaths per day. Under that scenario the NHS collapses and even more people die, the economy grinds to a halt as nearly everyone loses someone they know and people are shit scared.  It's not about what's happening now, you have to project into the future. Doing noting is not an option. And the lo ger we leave it, the worse it will be. 

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

9 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

The maths is dead simple. The virus is doubling every week. In five weeks we'll have half a million cases per day being infected. Say conservatively 5% need hospital treatment, 0.5% die. That means in about 8 weeks we'll be seeing around 25,000 admissions per day and 2500 deaths per day. Under that scenario the NHS collapses and even more people die, the economy grinds to a halt as nearly everyone loses someone they know and people are shit scared.  It's not about what's happening now, you have to project into the future. Doing noting is not an option. And the lo ger we leave it, the worse it will be. 

 

Is that conservative? Anyway, the virus doubling every week only continues whilst the R number remains high. We don't need to shut the economy down to bring that down. I'm convinced that people have simply gotten lazy. Social distancing is largely being ignored where I work. Wearing masks seems to given people a false sense of security. 

 

Something as simple as making higher risk individuals shield is surely more sensible.

 

Edited September 19, 2020 by TheGingerQuiff

[Renton 21451]

37 minutes ago, TheGingerQuiff said:

 

Is that conservative? Anyway, the virus doubling every week only continues whilst the R number remains high. We don't need to shut the economy down to bring that down. I'm convinced that people have simply gotten lazy. Social distancing is largely being ignored where I work. Wearing masks seems to given people a false sense of security. 

 

Something as simple as making higher risk individuals shield is surely more sensible.

 

 

I agree to an extent but changing people's behaviour is nigh on impossible now. So many conspiracy theorists like yourself, no trust in the government. Students returning will be a time bomb. 

[spongebob toonpants 3961]

As I think I've mentioned before my daughter works for PHE and her job is literally collating the infection/death statistics for the South East and presenting to the Emergency Response committee amongst others. I've just got off the phone and she is beyond frustrated as she says everybody is just saying exactly the same things they said at the same stage of first cycle, and making exactly the same mistakes

Current drivers of infection are household to household, followed by school and office. 

Everyone  ar her place is in full voluntary lockdown, and they have all the information

 

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

8 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

I agree to an extent but changing people's behaviour is nigh on impossible now. So many conspiracy theorists like yourself, no trust in the government. Students returning will be a time bomb. 

 

Like myself? I'm not questioning the severity of the virus, only the source of it.

Edited September 19, 2020 by TheGingerQuiff

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

Anyway are social bubbles still a thing? I don't even know what the rules are anymore.

[Tom 14011]

Support bubbles are...

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

Even in local lockdown? 

[Tom 14011]

Yes 

[ewerk 30409]

1 hour ago, spongebob toonpants said:

As I think I've mentioned before my daughter works for PHE and her job is literally collating the infection/death statistics for the South East and presenting to the Emergency Response committee amongst others. I've just got off the phone and she is beyond frustrated as she says everybody is just saying exactly the same things they said at the same stage of first cycle, and making exactly the same mistakes

Current drivers of infection are household to household, followed by school and office. 

Everyone  ar her place is in full voluntary lockdown, and they have all the information

 

I was wondering what sort of data they’d collected on sources of transmission. If they can do a more targeted form of lockdown this time and just shut down the main sources in an effort to manage the rates then that would definitely be preferable.

[spongebob toonpants 3961]

43 minutes ago, ewerk said:

I was wondering what sort of data they’d collected on sources of transmission. If they can do a more targeted form of lockdown this time and just shut down the main sources in an effort to manage the rates then that would definitely be preferable.

Got to get it much lower for anything like that to work. Full lockdown and full social distancing in her opinion. 

Masks not being mandatory everywhere sends her into something of a rage as well

[Kid Dynamite 7012]

11 hours ago, Gemmill said:

 

I think the idea that teachers should remain in the firing line while the rest of the country goes on full lockdown is bullshit. Teachers aren't front line health workers, they didn't sign up for this. They sure as shit don't get paid enough for it. 

 

I'm not sure front line health workers signed up for this either tbh

[Kid Dynamite 7012]

6 hours ago, TheGingerQuiff said:

 

Is it? I'm unconvinced that the consequences of lockdown aren't worse. I think the video gemmill  posted showing excess deaths being below average the last few months shows that the virus largely brought forward the deaths of people already near the end.

 

How many people are dying that wouldn't have otherwise? Is it more than, for example, the number of lockdown suicides? Is it a sufficiently large number that doesn't saddle your kids with a country in mountains of debt? 

 

Of course Thompers is in the "COVID deaths are just collateral damage and worth it to keep the economy going" camp

[NJS 4375]

Sweden tried a more full on herd immunity strategy with no lockdown and fucked their economy just as much as any other country - too many sick people do a shit load of damage too. 

[Anorthernsoul 1221]

15 minutes ago, NJS said:

Sweden tried a more full on herd immunity strategy with no lockdown and fucked their economy just as much as any other country - too many sick people do a shit load of damage too. 

 

Sweden have tried to pass it off as a success though?

[Gemmill 44561]

It might end up being one to an extent if they don't get a second wave. 

[Anorthernsoul 1221]

I'm looking at these daily figures rising and I can't see anything other than a second lockdown in the UK, maybe not for the same length of time but it's definitely happening I think.

Edited September 19, 2020 by Anorthernsoul

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

1 hour ago, Kid Dynamite said:

 

Of course Thompers is in the "COVID deaths are just collateral damage and worth it to keep the economy going" camp

 

Let's close the roads too that'll stop some deaths

[ewerk 30409]

Car crashes, of course, being famously contagious.

[ewerk 30409]

Sorry but that’s such a stupid fucking point. We have speed limits on roads, we have requirements to wear seat belts, we have tests to ensure drivers are properly qualified, we have tests to make sure cars are roadworthy, we have breathalysers to make sure drivers aren’t pissed.

But aye, roads are just the same as a global pandemic.