Coronavirus

[NJS 4378]

14 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Also, isn’t the German system very much de-centralised federally? Yet they seem to have the testing problem figured out better than any European country.

Germany is very federal but the States are larger/more powerful than say Scotland or Wales.i also assume they must have a tiered hierarchy of health decision making that's stronger than here. 

[PaddockLad 17244]

2 hours ago, ewerk said:

Well exactly. We’ve gone from herd immunity to delay, delay, delay. From testing doesn’t matter to test, test, test.

Which is why we need an independent enquiry into the government’s handling that of this situation.

 

 

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3888]

52 minutes ago, sammynb said:

 

Can I just point out, from what is going on here in Australia, the biggest problem you will face is actually getting people to stay in doors, no not all go to the park or the beach once the weather gets nicer.

It's like once the sun comes out stupidity reigns and that doesn't help the lockdown to flatten the curve.

Luckily I live in Scotland so this doesn’t apply.

[Renton 21592]

26 minutes ago, NJS said:

Okay, I accept I'm a bit wrong - but doesnt the trust system lead to areas bidding against each other for resources much like the states in the US? Genuine question. 

 

The internal market was set up to improve standards and efficiency. These are actually very hard to maintain with a huge monolithic block provider structure. But things like commissioning and provision are still probably more integrated than any other country I can think of. Also data collection. We have more information on individuals' health states, at both regional and national levels, than anywhere else, which is an invaluable resource. The fact we aren't coping well is nothing to do with the structure of the NHS imo and everything to do with funding and political leadership. 

[Renton 21592]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Carr's Gloves said:

Luckily I live in Scotland so this doesn’t apply.

 

Just wait until it is shown midges transmit this virus. 

[sammynb 3355]

26 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

Just wait until it is shown midges transmit this virus. 

 

Midges?

 

 

[Kid Dynamite 7025]

1 hour ago, ewerk said:

Also, isn’t the German system very much de-centralised federally? Yet they seem to have the testing problem figured out better than any European country.

Germanys stats look better because they’ve tested more people, hence the death rate looks much smaller. The reality is they are on the same curve as the UK and they’ve just wasted shit loads of tests on people that don’t have COVID

 

In the UK, outside of testing people currently at work to make sure they aren’t spreading COVID, what’s the point in testing hundreds of thousands of members of the public? There’s no treatment either way. If you’re symptomatic then stay in the house for 14days, test or otherwise

[NJS 4378]

6 minutes ago, Kid Dynamite said:

Germanys stats look better because they’ve tested more people, hence the death rate looks much smaller. The reality is they are on the same curve as the UK and they’ve just wasted shit loads of tests on people that don’t have COVID

 

In the UK, outside of testing people currently at work to make sure they aren’t spreading COVID, what’s the point in testing hundreds of thousands of members of the public? There’s no treatment either way. If you’re symptomatic then stay in the house for 14days, test or otherwise

I agree - it's the NHS workers that are the only testing priority for me.

 

However they seem to have oversold the antibody test as well which is the real way out of the lockdown.

 

[Renton 21592]

8 minutes ago, Kid Dynamite said:

Germanys stats look better because they’ve tested more people, hence the death rate looks much smaller. The reality is they are on the same curve as the UK and they’ve just wasted shit loads of tests on people that don’t have COVID

 

In the UK, outside of testing people currently at work to make sure they aren’t spreading COVID, what’s the point in testing hundreds of thousands of members of the public? There’s no treatment either way. If you’re symptomatic then stay in the house for 14days, test or otherwise

 

There's massive value in population surveillance to track this, and when numbers are falling it will be utterly essential to get out of lock down. We still aren't testing NHS staff ffs. And you're still supporting the government  and ignoring epidemiologists and the WHO, whilst we are on course to be worse than Italy now. Incredible. 

[Dr Gloom 21912]

3 hours ago, Gemmill said:

 

 

i tried to post that on here last night but the tweet wouldn't embed for some reason.

what that chart shows, worryingly, is we are still at the exponential growth stage in new daily deaths. italy's curve is starting to flatten and they're still on about 800 deaths per day.

[sammynb 3355]

8 minutes ago, NJS said:

I agree - it's the NHS workers that are the only testing priority for me.

 

However they seem to have oversold the antibody test as well which is the real way out of the lockdown.

 

 

Is it though? There is still no evidence that people are immune if they have recovered - actually there are alleged cases from China of people having it twice, although they are arguing that the first diagnosis were false positives.

[Renton 21592]

10 minutes ago, sammynb said:

 

Is it though? There is still no evidence that people are immune if they have recovered - actually there are alleged cases from China of people having it twice, although they are arguing that the first diagnosis were false positives.

 

It's very likely that repeat infections will be milder I would think, if knowledge of other respiratory infections count for anything. 

[Kid Dynamite 7025]

48 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

There's massive value in population surveillance to track this, and when numbers are falling it will be utterly essential to get out of lock down. We still aren't testing NHS staff ffs. And you're still supporting the government  and ignoring epidemiologists and the WHO, whilst we are on course to be worse than Italy now. Incredible. 

Well that’s one take on what I said ....

[Kid Dynamite 7025]

42 minutes ago, sammynb said:

 

Is it though? There is still no evidence that people are immune if they have recovered - actually there are alleged cases from China of people having it twice, although they are arguing that the first diagnosis were false positives.

There’s no real evidence of that at all from what I know 

[Gemmill 44811]

Covid has taken Eddie Large. 

[Dr Gloom 21912]

pray for sid

[Gemmill 44811]

He should be able to access the government's furlough scheme. 

[Meenzer 15518]

1 minute ago, Gemmill said:

He should be able to access the government's furlough scheme. 

 

Ouch.

[Gemmill 44811]

Holy fuck America. 

[Renton 21592]

9 minutes ago, Kid Dynamite said:

Well that’s one take on what I said ....

 

Well you said there's no point in mass testing. I mean literally everybody disagrees with that. Every epidemiologist, the WHO, and even Johnson today tbf. So by saying there's no point in it, you are letting the government off on something that is actually really, really important. We absolutely need mass surveillance, urgently. We haven't done it and it is a national disgrace that will ultimately cost many lives.

[Rayvin 5217]

I'm not immediately going to reject J69's point here as I can see an underlying logic, but how would he explain South Korea's success if not being due to mass testing and origin tracking?

[Alex 35064]

23 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

He should be able to access the government's furlough scheme. 

Fucking hell  

[Kid Dynamite 7025]

16 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

I'm not immediately going to reject J69's point here as I can see an underlying logic, but how would he explain South Korea's success if not being due to mass testing and origin tracking?

No idea. My point was in relation to the widespread applauding across the media of Germany’s mass testing. Which usually ignores the fact they’ve got the exact same death trend as we do in the UK.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Kid Dynamite

[Rayvin 5217]

1 minute ago, Kid Dynamite said:

No idea. My point was in relation to the widespread applauding of Germany’s mass testing across the media/social media. Which usually ignores the fact they’ve got the exact same death trend as we do in the UK.

 

Fair enough, but then if we compare to Korea we can make the argument successfully, at this point? Also it may be a few days before the differences between the UK and everyone else are fully revealed I suppose.

 

I do get what you're saying though, about the misleading nature of that graph.

[Renton 21592]

Contact tracing is really important. But so is understanding population spread and appropriate management of suspected infections in the community. The point that there are 20% of the NHS in isolation, many of them needlessly, is obvious. But the NHS are not the only key workers by far. At the minute testing just seems to being used for hospital management and classification of death certificates.