Coronavirus

[nufcpepper 0]

[Howmanheyman 32893]

11 hours ago, Meenzer said:

First poppy advert of the season on the telly tonight and they're equating the COVID-19 crisis to - you guessed it - war.

 

It's going to be a long winter...

Why not? They've equated everything else to it, particularly Brexit. 

[Toonpack 9321]

11 hours ago, Renton said:

 

Just earlier in the cycle. Looks to me that admissions and deaths are in exponential phase. We'll be getting 3 figure daily numbers next week. The local trusts are shitting themselves now. 

Excess deaths per ONS to w/end 25th Sept (my own graph in Excel as it seemed appropriate)

Edited October 7, 2020 by Toonpack

[Monkeys Fist 42205]

5 hours ago, RobinRobin said:

"Granualarity", "metrics", "exponential" - what the fuck has happened to this place?  Someone swallowed a thesaurus? 

Run! 

[trooper 940]

Talking to one of my sons last he said he went to Nationwide in Blyth yesterday. He said he was at the back of the queue there were about 10 people in front of not socially distanced not wearing a mask. He said Nationwide were letting them in one at a time . Just before they went in everyone pulled a mask out of the pocket or shopping bag. He said as each one left, off came the mask.

Edited October 7, 2020 by trooper

[Renton 21451]

25 minutes ago, trooper said:

Talking to one of my sons last he said he went to Nationwide in Blyth yesterday. He said he was at the back of the queue there were about 10 people in front of not socially distanced not wearing a mask. He said Nationwide were letting them in one at a time . Just before they went in everyone pulled a mask out of the pocket or shopping bag. He said as each one left, off came the mask.

 

Apart from the lack of social distancing when queueing, not sure I see an issue here? I don't wear a mask outside as a rule. 

 

Some good news today that preliminary research suggests primary school children are not major vectors. They don't catch it easily, are very rarely ill from it, and don't transmit it much. There's a strong argument for removing them from the rule of six. Unfortunately doesn't apply to secondary school kids. But I'm fine with that.

 

[Gemmill 44561]

1 hour ago, Toonpack said:

Excess deaths per ONS to w/end 25th Sept (my own graph in Excel as it seemed appropriate)

 

I'm trying to resist going down the rabbit hole on this, but unless the data in these videos is completely wrong, there does seem to be something in what he's saying (and in what's in your graph re excess deaths). Cases started their steep rise at the start of September. We're going into the second week of October now, and deaths really haven't shifted much at all, at least not in comparison with usual seasonal trends. 

 

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I'm not changing my behaviours as far as distancing or mask wearing goes, or behaving like a cunt (at least no more than normal), but I dunno, I'm still waiting for the big uptick in deaths. I'm not saying it isn't gonna happen, I haven't a fucking clue, but I'm still waiting. 

 

 

Edited October 7, 2020 by Gemmill

[ewerk 30409]

Surely it's due to younger people getting the virus during this wave?

[trooper 940]

7 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

Apart from the lack of social distancing when queueing, not sure I see an issue here? I don't wear a mask outside as a rule. 

 

 

 

Surely if people aren't social distancing in a queue you'd wear your mask.

 

A Bedlington pub has been shut after police caught households mingling and customers without their masks in breach of coronavirus guidelines.

Officers claimed there was no social distancing inside The Wharton Arms during a spot check on Saturday, October 3.

Northumbria Police say multiple breaches at the pub also included not displaying a Track and Trace QR code, or enforcing a one-way system.

[Renton 21451]

6 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

I'm trying to resist going down the rabbit hole on this, but unless the data in these videos is completely wrong, there does seem to be something in what he's saying (and in what's in your graph re excess deaths). Cases started their steep rise at the start of September. We're going into the second week of October now, and deaths really haven't shifted much at all, at least not in comparison with usual seasonal trends. 

 

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I'm not changing my behaviours as far as distancing or mask wearing goes, or behaving like a cunt (at least no more than normal), but I dunno, I'm still waiting for the big uptick in deaths. I'm not saying it isn't gonna happen, I haven't a fucking clue, but I'm still waiting. 

 

 

 

Haven't watch the video, but I don't understand what you're saying. If you look at the graphs on the dashboard, the most obvious thing is that cases are increasing exponentially. But as we know, you can't make a comparison with March, as to be tested then you had to be on the verge of admission. But what it does tell you is that transmission is exponential and if we do not get R down to below 1, which would require a full lock down, cases will keep increasing exponentially. At a lower rate than March, because we have some measures in place as standard.

 

To me looking at the admission data and death data it is also clear they are increasing exponentially. Just crude maths of the figures or looking at the curve confirms this. It's coming from a much lower base and there is the characteristic lag, but it is clear to see. So if we keep on as we are, admissions and deaths will continue to rise, hitting March levels in perhaps late November. Treatment is better of course, but I expect the benefits of that to be outweighed by the concomitant risk of flu. Is this not obvious? 

[Renton 21451]

4 minutes ago, trooper said:

Surely if people aren't social distancing in a queue you'd wear your mask.

 

A Bedlington pub has been shut after police caught households mingling and customers without their masks in breach of coronavirus guidelines.

Officers claimed there was no social distancing inside The Wharton Arms during a spot check on Saturday, October 3.

Northumbria Police say multiple breaches at the pub also included not displaying a Track and Trace QR code, or enforcing a one-way system.

 

I would, I've not encountered that situation yet mind. Generally people stick to 2 metres spacing in my experience. 

[Toonpack 9321]

14 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

I'm trying to resist going down the rabbit hole on this, but unless the data in these videos is completely wrong, there does seem to be something in what he's saying (and in what's in your graph re excess deaths). Cases started their steep rise at the start of September. We're going into the second week of October now, and deaths really haven't shifted much at all, at least not in comparison with usual seasonal trends. 

 

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I'm not changing my behaviours as far as distancing or mask wearing goes, or behaving like a cunt (at least no more than normal), but I dunno, I'm still waiting for the big uptick in deaths. I'm not saying it isn't gonna happen, I haven't a fucking clue, but I'm still waiting. 

 

 

Excess deaths over average has gone up 4.1%, 4.9% and 5.2% in last three reported weeks, it is climbing albeit slowly just now.

I thinks it's combination of lower age of the infected and much improved care for those seriously ill such that mortality rate is lower than when it first hit no matter what, unless of course services get swamped.

Florida model showed a good few weeks lag from younger age groups being infectious until it inexorably climbed into the older/more at risk categories. Early days yet.

[trooper 940]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

 

I would, I've not encountered that situation yet mind. Generally people stick to 2 metres spacing in my experience. 

I told him he'd done the right thing 

[Gemmill 44561]

Show me deaths increasing exponentially cos I haven't seen a graph where that is happening. Not even Vallance was suggesting exponential growth in deaths btw, given that he expects a 200 per day run rate in mid November from an exponential rise in cases. 

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3860]

I am looking at the WHO graphs for the UK and there is no exponential increa in death rates.

[ewerk 30409]

1 minute ago, Gemmill said:

Show me deaths increasing exponentially cos I haven't seen a graph where that is happening. Not even Vallance was suggesting exponential growth in deaths btw, given that he expects a 200 per day run rate in mid November from an exponential rise in cases. 

Three weeks ago we had 78 covid deaths, last week it was 215. That's nearly a threefold increase. Just how exponential are you looking?

[Sonatine 11329]

[Renton 21451]

Just now, Gemmill said:

Show me deaths increasing exponentially cos I haven't seen a graph where that is happening. Not even Vallance was suggesting exponential growth in deaths btw, given that he expects a 200 per day run rate in mid November from an exponential rise in cases. 

 

I made it 3 minutes into that video. Its out of date. Just go to the ONS covid dashboard for the latest data. Or just watch the news. Admissions are increasing rapidly with deaths following. It is exponential, but because R is lower than March the curve is less steep. The destination, if we do nothing, is ultimately the same though. Cold weather and concomitant flu may well act as accelerants mind, but that's not certain. 

[Gemmill 44561]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

 

I made it 3 minutes into that video. Its out of date. Just go to the ONS covid dashboard for the latest data. Or just watch the news. Admissions are increasing rapidly with deaths following. It is exponential, but because R is lower than March the curve is less steep. The destination, if we do nothing, is ultimately the same though. Cold weather and concomitant flu may well act as accelerants mind, but that's not certain. 

 

Well it sounds like Vallance needs to go back to school cos he is not expecting an exponential rise in deaths. 

[Monkeys Fist 42205]

2 minutes ago, Sonatine said:

It’s entirely believable that Johnson has Ferengi knees. 

[Toonpack 9321]

6 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

Show me deaths increasing exponentially cos I haven't seen a graph where that is happening. Not even Vallance was suggesting exponential growth in deaths btw, given that he expects a 200 per day run rate in mid November from an exponential rise in cases. 

Before Covid through to Start of March deaths were 4K below 5 year ave for that time of year.

Between March and first week June it went mental with 58K over average

Between Early June and Mid August it was 1600 below the average (week by week patterns very similar to start of year pre-covid)

From Mid August to date (end Sept) we're back to above average (and climbing) of 1800 above average.

ONS data in my non Serco spreadsheet

[Renton 21451]

6 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

 

Well it sounds like Vallance needs to go back to school cos he is not expecting an exponential rise in deaths. 

 

Yeah, I didn't get why he said 200 cases per day. Unless he was factoring in increased lockdown provisions. Honestly though, we are in serious shit imo. I'm most worried about the knock on effect to other services, especially cancer. 

[Gemmill 44561]

2 minutes ago, Toonpack said:

Before Covid through to Start of March deaths were 4K below 5 year ave for that time of year.

Between March and first week June it went mental with 58K over average

Between Early June and Mid August it was 1600 below the average (week by week patterns very similar to start of year pre-covid)

From Mid August to date (end Sept) we're back to above average (and climbing) of 1800 above average.

ONS data in my non Serco spreadsheet

 

Cheers for this. Like I keep saying, I'm not a denier, and I was as alarmed as anyone back in March/April when there appeared to be cause for alarm. I'm still waiting for that cause for alarm this time around to be reflected in the death figures. 

[Renton 21451]

Just now, Gemmill said:

 

Cheers for this. Like I keep saying, I'm not a denier, and I was as alarmed as anyone back in March/April when there appeared to be cause for alarm. I'm still waiting for that cause for alarm this time around to be reflected in the death figures. 

 

Did you read ewerks post? Whats your threshold for alarm? This is what I mean, we're doing it again. By the time people get alarmed, it will be too late. 

[Gemmill 44561]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

 

Yeah, I didn't get why he said 200 cases per day. Unless he was factoring in increased lockdown provisions. Honestly though, we are in serious shit imo. I'm most worried about the knock on effect to other services, especially cancer. 

 

Nah his 200 was if we did nothing (or stuck with what we were currently doing). He had cases of 49k per day by mid Oct translating to 200 deaths per day by mid Nov. I still cannot get my head around those figures combined with the "it's as bad as the first wave" argument, because it is objectively not. 

 

Anyway I don't want to come across as some swivel eyed loon. I'll wait and see, I hope it's not gonna go mental again.