Coronavirus

[spongebob toonpants 3961]

3 hours ago, Renton said:

Interesting, but not entirely convinced because he didn't posit any reasons for the trends he was describing. Main thing was the disconnect between incidence rate and mortality compared with the first wave, prople don't seem to be dying so much. Why?

Younger more healthy demographic?

Better treatment?

A lot of at risk cohort already dead?

Virus is somehow less deadly?

 

Thing is, we're only in September. Its true winter I fear most. 

Also seems to completely ignore the 4 week lag between catching the disease and dying. 

[Gemmill 44569]

1 minute ago, spongebob toonpants said:

Also seems to completely ignore the 4 week lag between catching the disease and dying. 

 

 

Nah, Spain (shown above) started to see its cases shoot up from the last week of July on. Still no similar increase in deaths though. France is below - their rise in cases came a week or two later, but still they haven't seen a knock on effect on deaths. 

 

The rise in deaths that should have happened by now if this was the same as March/April, just hasn't happened. 

 

[spongebob toonpants 3961]

That's a bit more hopeful, but if testing is finding more instances earlier, and if younger people are driving the increase it's possible the more vulnerable havent caught  it yet, then its possible the lag might be longer. 

Hope I'm wrong but I think it's going to get a lot worse before long

[Gemmill 44569]

I couldn't find the hospitalisation figures but I think I'm right in saying that hospitalisations are nothing like what we would expect either. 

 

You're right about the vulnerable being at risk through the winter though. But something weird seems to have happened in the interaction between cases and deaths. 

[Renton 21455]

Hospitals are beginning to struggle in some areas of France and are rising fairly rapidly in the NW here. I agree the two peaks in the incidence graphs are apples and pears. But I also know about exponential growth. I fear we may be earlier in a second wave than the incidence data suggests. Doesn't tell you where it will go though. These things are always much worse i  winter. 

[Renton 21455]

4000 cases today, quadrupled in a couple of weeks. Probably much higher too since so many people can't get tested.

Edited September 16, 2020 by Renton

[Gemmill 44569]

Aye just seen that. 20 deaths. 

[Carl 175]

North east Lockdown on Friday 

[Kid Dynamite 7012]

4 minutes ago, Carl said:

North east Lockdown on Friday 

The clip of the lockdown rules man

 

- You're still allowed to go to the pub, but only with people from your household 

 

- You're still allowed on holiday, but only with people from your household 

 

Good luck enforcing that!

[Alex 34954]

38 minutes ago, Carl said:

North east Lockdown on Friday 

Is that official? 

[trooper 940]

31 minutes ago, Alex said:

Is that official? 

Apparently it's going to be announced tomorrow 

[Tom 14011]

On 09/09/2020 at 12:28, Tom said:

 

 

[trooper 940]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/north-east-set-new-lockdown-22695153

[Alex 34954]

From just after midnight on Friday. You couldn’t make this shit up  

[Tom 14011]

Pub? 

[trooper 940]

Pubs will be chock a on Friday night. It was the same in March absolutely crazy man.

[Renton 21455]

I think it might mean 0.01 am friday morning, so not a weekend night. Also pubs aren't shutting anyway and the few I've been to here have pretty strict social distancing. Only 2 pubs admittedly. I don't think it will be like last time. Hope it has some effect but I'm doubtful. Childcare will be the biggest issue. 

[Isegrim 9741]

Does it include Barnard Castle?

[trooper 940]

55 minutes ago, Renton said:

I think it might mean 0.01 am friday morning, so not a weekend night. Also pubs aren't shutting anyway and the few I've been to here have pretty strict social distancing. Only 2 pubs admittedly. I don't think it will be like last time. Hope it has some effect but I'm doubtful. Childcare will be the biggest issue. 

Aye your right with the timing mate my mistake.

[Ugly Mackems 133]

Morgan the arrogant cunt. World class stupidity. 

[trooper 940]

Newcastle City Council leader Nick Forbes tweeted: "Some additional, temporary restrictions are being planned to prevent another full lockdown."

In a reply to another Twitter user, Mr Forbes added: "We are waiting confirmation from Government on the final version of the regulations; I am expecting an announcement by the Health Secretary at 11am tomorrow."

[Tom 14011]

Midnight on Thursday the restrictions kick in

[Alex 34954]

10 hours ago, Renton said:

I think it might mean 0.01 am friday morning, so not a weekend night. Also pubs aren't shutting anyway and the few I've been to here have pretty strict social distancing. Only 2 pubs admittedly. I don't think it will be like last time. Hope it has some effect but I'm doubtful. Childcare will be the biggest issue. 

That at least makes some sense re: the timing. 

[Carl 175]

So what is essential travel only? is that schools and colleges ?

[Alex 34954]

8 minutes ago, Carl said:

So what is essential travel only? is that schools and colleges ?

You can travel to the pub