Coronavirus

[Dr Gloom 21937]

this is required reading

https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/

We are going over an economic cliff. Even if you take the optimistic view that the virus is contained this year, it still looks much worse than 2008, according to the IMF.

https://www.ft.com/content/e626cc6f-5aa9-4dae-b6a0-175b92aa126d

 

if you take the pessimistic view that the virus isn't contained and a vaccine isn't rolled out until, say, the end of next year, we are looking at massive increases in public debt - the FT's Martin Wolf reckons up to 20-30% points of GDP - mass longterm unemployment, many companies out of business, probably a collapsed trading system. 

it's worth remembering that 2008 wasn't a true global crisis - developed countries were badly hit and that in turn had an impact on the whole world - but china's quick and strong recovery helped support commodities. cornoavirus is a different beast entirely. every country is affected. 

Edited June 12, 2020 by Dr Gloom

[sammynb 3357]

23 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

if you take the pessimistic view that the virus isn't contained and a vaccine isn't rolled out until, say, the end of next year,

 

Can I just point out that this is being hugely optimistic.

It's been 18 years since the SARS outbreak and 8 years since the MERS outbreak and they still haven't found a vaccine for either.

I think the best case scenario for C-19 is going to be like HIV, management of the disease through treatment in the unlikely event of a vaccine.

I was reading the other day that they have just found a way to replicate/manufacture the two types of anti-bodies but this might be useless as the anti-bodies are what's thought to cause the body's massive auto-immune response, which is what is the main cause of further complications that lead to the fatalities.

[sammynb 3357]

BTW, the Parky in the back of my tin foil hatted brain, makes me think if you ever wanted to unleash something on the world in order to cause enough mayhem for a single country to change the world order of things, then this is probably the perfect catalyst.

[NJS 4389]

19 minutes ago, sammynb said:

 

Can I just point out that this is being hugely optimistic.

It's been 18 years since the SARS outbreak and 8 years since the MERS outbreak and they still haven't found a vaccine for either.

I think the best case scenario for C-19 is going to be like HIV, management of the disease through treatment in the unlikely event of a vaccine.

I was reading the other day that they have just found a way to replicate/manufacture the two types of anti-bodies but this might be useless as the anti-bodies are what's thought to cause the body's massive auto-immune response, which is what is the main cause of further complications that lead to the fatalities.

There's no incentive to create vaccines for SARS or MERS as they're both effectively dead.

 

Quite a few promising vaccines are being tested at the moment. Even if the Oxford one is limited to drastically reducing the effects it will be hugely beneficial. The Moderna looks even more effective. 

 

. 

[Renton 21632]

5 minutes ago, NJS said:

There's no incentive to create vaccines for SARS or MERS as they're both effectively dead.

 

Quite a few promising vaccines are being tested at the moment. Even if the Oxford one is limited to drastically reducing the effects it will be hugely beneficial. The Moderna looks even more effective. 

 

. 

 

Correct, I'm fairly confident there will be a technological solution although I still think it may be primarily through pharmaceutical treatments, maybe with a short lasting vaccine as well. But the economy scares me, especially with this bunch of chancers. 

[Gemmill 44931]

I'm not up for all these horror show blogs about the economy and stuff. It might be right, it might be wrong, but get your blinkers on and worry about what's going on within your own four walls. You'll drive yourself mad otherwise. 

[Renton 21632]

28 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

I'm not up for all these horror show blogs about the economy and stuff. It might be right, it might be wrong, but get your blinkers on and worry about what's going on within your own four walls. You'll drive yourself mad otherwise. 

 

I guess you can apply that philosophy to extremes. It would explain the baking. 

[Dr Gloom 21937]

Everything’s going to be fine. La la la la la la. 

 

Edited June 12, 2020 by Dr Gloom

[Gemmill 44931]

It's absolutely not, but I don't need to feast on articles telling me just how terrible it's gonna get. It'll be shit enough when we actually get there.

 

SO RAM YOUR DOOM BLOGS UP YOUR SHITPIPE! 

[Meenzer 15550]

5 hours ago, Gemmill said:

I'm not up for all these horror show blogs about the economy and stuff. It might be right, it might be wrong, but get your blinkers on and worry about what's going on within your own four walls. You'll drive yourself mad otherwise. 

 

This is how I've been trying to do things generally since all the Brexit/Trump stuff kicked off, really - focus on your life, your neighbourhood, do nice things where you can actually make a difference, and try not to worry too much about what you can't control. The only trouble with coronavirus is that all the community stuff has been put on hold too so now all that's left is to fret about the big stuff.  

[Gemmill 44931]

4 minutes ago, Meenzer said:

 

This is how I've been trying to do things generally since all the Brexit/Trump stuff kicked off, really - focus on your life, your neighbourhood, do nice things where you can actually make a difference, and try not to worry too much about what you can't control. The only trouble with coronavirus is that all the community stuff has been put on hold too so now all that's left is to fret about the big stuff.   

 

 aye definitely easier when you can actually get out and do things. I met a mate for a walk today. First time I've done it since this whole thing started and it was good. I'm looking forward to being able to get to a restaurant too. 

[Renton 21632]

We're living through an epoch changing time in society. Truly unprecedented times. I mean, fine if you don't want to discuss it but seems odd to come on the very thread that's about it and criticise those that do? We could probably do with more specific threads tbf, but I'm genuinely quite interested in the macroeconomics of this whilst being fully aware I can't change it. I'm interested in opinions. 

 

Come to think of it, I'm now guesing this how you feel when I post on your bread thread.  Carry on. 

[Meenzer 15550]

15 minutes ago, Renton said:

Come to think of it, I'm now guesing this how you feel when I post on your bread thread.  Carry on. 

 

We could use a separate thread for that too mind. It's not cooking, it's baking.  

[Gemmill 44931]

23 minutes ago, Renton said:

We're living through an epoch changing time in society. Truly unprecedented times. I mean, fine if you don't want to discuss it but seems odd to come on the very thread that's about it and criticise those that do? We could probably do with more specific threads tbf, but I'm genuinely quite interested in the macroeconomics of this whilst being fully aware I can't change it. I'm interested in opinions. 

 

Come to think of it, I'm now guesing this how you feel when I post on your bread thread.  Carry on. 

 

I've already had to talk you off the ledge once in this thread. If you keep reading these blogs, I'm gonna have more nappies to change and that's not fair on either of us. 

[Alex 35095]

I think I’m handling it quite well because of x, y and z but then I remember in reality it’s because of things beyond my control. Whether that be my being able to work from home, my lass working for the nhs, which despite the inherent stress associated with that means guaranteed income or one of my best mates randomly delivering weed he’s grown at home when I least expect it. 

Edited June 12, 2020 by Alex

[Alex 35095]

And rum

[Dr Gloom 21937]

God, I’d love some drugs like, right about now 

[Tdansmith 3259]

3 hours ago, Dr Gloom said:

God, I’d love some drugs like, right about now 

[Monkeys Fist 42459]

10 hours ago, Dr Gloom said:

God, I’d love some drugs like, right about now 

The Funk Soul Brother. 

[Dr Gloom 21937]

got some valium leftover from when i slipped a disc in my back. lockdown boredom has left me genuinely tempted to crack it open

still, could be worse

 

23 hours ago, Gemmill said:

Star Realms and Mystic Vale are so far unaffected (great games btw, I cannot be shamed on this matter so don't even try). 

 

Edited June 13, 2020 by Dr Gloom

[Billy Whitehurst 897]

1 hour ago, Dr Gloom said:

got some valium leftover from when i slipped a disc in my back. lockdown boredom has left me genuinely tempted to crack it open

still, could be worse

 

 

Still, he’ll be buzzing when Games Workshop reopens on Monday.

[Alex 35095]

13 hours ago, Dr Gloom said:

God, I’d love some drugs like, right about now 

If you lived a bit closer I would drop some off

[Gemmill 44931]

2 hours ago, Dr Gloom said:

got some valium leftover from when i slipped a disc in my back. lockdown boredom has left me genuinely tempted to crack it open

still, could be worse

 

 

 

I can't wait til you're fully demented. 

[Dr Gloom 21937]

1 hour ago, Gemmill said:

 

I can't wait til you're fully demented. 

No need to wait

[Alex 35095]

You and Gemmill both by the sounds of it