Coronavirus

[Monkeys Fist 42449]

11 minutes ago, Meenzer said:

Ah, but it was glamorous once.

 

 

1987- before the place was infested with Mackem replica tops. 
 

Still shite though. 

[Gemmill 44881]

Some councillor on twitter saying they've just received all of the posters and leaflets from central govt, ready for Monday, all of which stipulate the 2m rule.

 

I think we all know what's coming before Monday. 

[Renton 21626]

I'll just apply the 5 Km rule where the metro centre's concerned.

[Gemmill 44881]

Seriously though, this should have taught everyone that the high street is only needed for when you need something today. If you can wait til tomorrow then you don't need to leave the house. 

[Gemmill 44881]

 

 

First test and trace data published in the last hour, and it's falling apart already. I suspect the bloke from. The UK Statistics Authority is going to need to write a third letter to Matt Hancock. 

[Dr Gloom 21924]

1 hour ago, Meenzer said:

Ah, but it was glamorous once.

 

 

i remember the day it opened. like everyone else who lived in the north east, we received an invitation to attend the big first day of trade. and, like everyone else who lived in the north east, we sat in a gridlocked a1 for about an hour before giving up and driving home 

[Meenzer 15527]

Currently watching a rather bizarre take on what would have been the Diamond League athletics in Oslo, with various semi-exhibition events including Lavillenie taking part in the pole vault via a delayed video link-up from his back garden in France.  

[Alex 35083]

7 hours ago, Gemmill said:

Seriously though, this should have taught everyone that the high street is only needed for when you need something today. If you can wait til tomorrow then you don't need to leave the house. 

And the metro centre isn’t needed 

[Billy Whitehurst 895]

1 hour ago, Meenzer said:

Currently watching a rather bizarre take on what would have been the Diamond League athletics in Oslo, with various semi-exhibition events including Lavillenie taking part in the pole vault via a delayed video link-up from his back garden in France.  

I particularly enjoyed the fact that his run up was downhill, the cheating bastard.

[Dr Gloom 21924]

Nothing to see here - just the economy shrinking a record 20.4% in April due to lockdown https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53019360 

[ewerk 30611]

Not exactly a surprise. I’m surprised it wasn’t more tbh.

[Renton 21626]

3 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Not exactly a surprise. I’m surprised it wasn’t more tbh.

 

Ahem. You were predicting this wouldn't be as bad as the 2008 crash? I think we're going to find this is an order of magnitude worse. Especially with a sprinkling of no deal Brexit on top. 

[ewerk 30611]

I was predicting a short, sharp dip. I don’t think the overall economic effect on people’s lives will be as bad as 2008.

[Renton 21626]

Just now, ewerk said:

I was predicting a short, sharp dip. I don’t think the overall economic effect on people’s lives will be as bad as 2008.

 

Do you still believe that? Because I think there's going to be a huge round of redundancies very soon, many businesses simply can't get back on their feet this year, schools are out until December apparently. I can't see where demand will come from to stimulate recovery, can you? This looks very L shaped to me. 

[Rayvin 5223]

1 hour ago, Renton said:

 

Do you still believe that? Because I think there's going to be a huge round of redundancies very soon, many businesses simply can't get back on their feet this year, schools are out until December apparently. I can't see where demand will come from to stimulate recovery, can you? This looks very L shaped to me. 

 

The government is going to have to spend. Keynesian style.

[ewerk 30611]

1 hour ago, Renton said:

 

Do you still believe that? Because I think there's going to be a huge round of redundancies very soon, many businesses simply can't get back on their feet this year, schools are out until December apparently. I can't see where demand will come from to stimulate recovery, can you? This looks very L shaped to me. 

The day CT thinks to himself ‘maybe I shouldn’t spend £500 on this toy that’ll entertain me for five minutes’ will be the day I worry about the economy.

[Renton 21626]

22 minutes ago, ewerk said:

The day CT thinks to himself ‘maybe I shouldn’t spend £500 on this toy that’ll entertain me for five minutes’ will be the day I worry about the economy.

 

I'm not sure a wealthy land lord who doesn't need to work should be your barometer like. 

[Rayvin 5223]

I do once remember CT advising me that if the country ever got into a financial position whereby people on the breadline were truly in trouble, he'd let me know. And that otherwise I shouldn't worry about it

Edited June 12, 2020 by Rayvin

[Dr Gloom 21924]

2 hours ago, ewerk said:

I was predicting a short, sharp dip. I don’t think the overall economic effect on people’s lives will be as bad as 2008.

howay man. you're still not budging on that?  

[ewerk 30611]

30 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

howay man. you're still not budging on that?  

Nothing I’ve seen so far is different from what I expected. As long as the banks are okay then the economy will return. There will of course be some job casualties but not on an epic scale.

[Renton 21626]

35 minutes ago, ewerk said:

Nothing I’ve seen so far is different from what I expected. As long as the banks are okay then the economy will return. There will of course be some job casualties but not on an epic scale.

 

The GDP loss announced today was much worse than expected,  so well done for predicting it. I'd be happy to share your optimism, if you explained it and evidenced it, and it wasn't contrary to nearly all the expectations of professional economists. You seem to have the faith of a Brexiter, maybe I need to believe more. 

[Rayvin 5223]

Logically, if businesses don't go under, then I agree with ewerk. What is going to tank the economy if businesses just pop back up to what they were doing? The big risk is that they become unsustainable in terms of cash flows, not that all of these businesses are suddenly unprofitable. 

 

Since the government stepped in to help them with their main overheads, i.e. staff costs, they should indeed mostly be fine.

 

Except holiday companies which are going to be hounded to death by people trying to claim refunds for missed trips

 

[NJS 4386]

It's not just government helping businesses - we have a division which specialises in quite small loans to businesses for office equipment etc and the policy has been to allow payment holidays as much as possible. Obviously that's a good business policy rather than goodness of the heart thinking but it does mean businesses won't go under for that particular cash flow reason. 

 

I think businesses which can just flick a switch and start again will be okay. 

[PaddockLad 17262]

1 hour ago, ewerk said:

Nothing I’ve seen so far is different from what I expected. As long as the banks are okay then the economy will return. There will of course be some job casualties but not on an epic scale.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53006073

 

This is 5k mostly management level posts. That sort of cull hasn't happened since privitisation. That's 35 years ago. This Autumn when the furlough scheme stops they'll be a massive reckoning in every sector. 

Edited June 12, 2020 by PaddockLad

[Renton 21626]

The government arent going to furlough people forever. And social distancing is here to stay for a year at least I would say. Schools won't be fully operational this year, which means a lot of parents won't be able to work productively. Huge areas of the economy will struggle to turn a profit under these circumstances, and there will be unprecedented levels of unemployment. This in turn will kill demand, and without demand manufacturing is also fucked. And this is without the negative effects of no deal Brexit (probably an 8% additional GDP loss, much worse in the NE) or considering a second wave.

 

I don't get this idea companies can survive without income , flick a switch, and come back online. No company can survive months without income, there are overheads to consider beyond wages. Also the fact that the infrastructure is still intact unlike after WW2 is actually a bad thing economically. There is no massive infrastructure work to be done to stimulate demand, and if you think this government is going to go hyperKeynsian, I've got a bridge to sell you.