Coronavirus

[Renton 21633]

1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

 

They can send people back to work and lift the lockdowns. That's how they stop it. COVID-19 isn't causing the economic problems on its own, our response to it is. It could and almost certainly would cause a healthcare crisis on its own, but even that wouldn't be as bad as total economic collapse. If we get the latter, society is done. It's 2 days without food, I believe, for the wheels to come off society and Mad Max to start looking like a documentary.

 

They will not let that happen, they just won't. They'll take as many hits, as many companies going under as they can realistically afford to do, but there is a red line somewhere - once we hit that, the lockdown gets lifted to save the majority of the economy, no matter how many lives it costs.

 

You think they will prematurely lift the lock down? I'm 100% certain you are wrong on that. Can't believe I'm saying this but you're being pretty unfair to the government and not reflecting on what has already happened.

[Rayvin 5223]

Just now, Renton said:

 

You think they will prematurely lift the lock down? I'm 100% certain you are wrong on that. Can't believe I'm saying this but you're being pretty unfair to the government and not reflecting on what has already happened.

 

You think they'll let the entire economy fall apart? Are we getting wires crossed here or something - when you say 'fall apart', do you mean a depression? Cos if so then ok, I can see your point but it isn't a collapse. If you mean capitalism is going to be on its knees to save a few old people, you're barking up the wrong tree entirely. What they've done so far is all well and good, but it hasn't yet started really and seriously ruining the economy.

 

I just read that we're going to have to prepare for powercuts. That's a step up in the economic stakes IMO, especially with everyone working from home. Then food next, presumably. They will hang on as long as they can, but the scales will tip in the end. The devastation caused by a total economic collapse will be far worse than the loss of even a million or so people. I'm not a Tory by any stretch of the imagination, and even I can see that. So you can bet your bottom dollar that they can too.

 

Trump, bizarrely, kind of has the right of this - for the wrong reasons, granted, but there is a point somewhere in all of this where the lives lost are not as significant as the damage done/future generations lost to economic collapse. They won't let it come to the latter. Honestly, I'm not even sure they'll have to make that choice anyway - curve flattens, they lift lockdowns in essential areas and ease the economy back in. That's clearly the idea at least.

[wykikitoon 20198]

The numbers coming out of Spain is bonkers 

[Rayvin 5223]

I want to stress as well for the avoidance of doubt, that I think the Tories have handled this as well as they could have, with the exception of their initial dithering. I'm not criticising them - I'm just saying that there's a line in the sand somewhere on all of this. Western civilisation is not going to be allowed to be brought down by a virus with a mortality rate of 3%.

[ewerk 30629]

30 minutes ago, Monkeys Fist said:

 

There’s the full bit, Piers.  

Any more of that and I’ll release the contents of your voicemails to the board. 
 

And I disagree with your theory that lots of people are re-evaluating their needs. It’ll be BAU this time next year.

[Renton 21633]

5 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

You think they'll let the entire economy fall apart? Are we getting wires crossed here or something - when you say 'fall apart', do you mean a depression? Cos if so then ok, I can see your point but it isn't a collapse. If you mean capitalism is going to be on its knees to save a few old people, you're barking up the wrong tree entirely. What they've done so far is all well and good, but it hasn't yet started really and seriously ruining the economy.

 

I just read that we're going to have to prepare for powercuts. That's a step up in the economic stakes IMO, especially with everyone working from home. Then food next, presumably. They will hang on as long as they can, but the scales will tip in the end. The devastation caused by a total economic collapse will be far worse than the loss of even a million or so people. I'm not a Tory by any stretch of the imagination, and even I can see that. So you can bet your bottom dollar that they can too.

 

Trump, bizarrely, kind of has the right of this - for the wrong reasons, granted, but there is a point somewhere in all of this where the lives lost are not as significant as the damage done/future generations lost to economic collapse. They won't let it come to the latter. Honestly, I'm not even sure they'll have to make that choice anyway - curve flattens, they lift lockdowns in essential areas and ease the economy back in. That's clearly the idea at least.

 

We're looking at economic melt down, not armageddon man. There wont be power cuts, there wont be serious food shortages. We'll have controlled lock downs, and releases, of the economy for several months or years. Science and medicine will get on top of it, and THEN we face rebuilding the economy.

 

I'm not saying this is to save lives. I'm saying that saving lives is ultimately the best thing for society and the economy. Not doing these measures is counterproductive, as the USA will find out. 

[Anorthernsoul 1221]

15 hours ago, NJS said:

I was looking through my works team WhatsApp thread and someone posted an article about a firm in Canary Wharf sending everyone home due to a case on Feb 26th - that's 24/27 days before Johnson shut the pubs then implemented full on lockdown 3 days later. 

 

I think if we'd been locked down on the first of March  we'd be doing quite well now. 

 

If's/But's/Maybe's.

 

 

People keep mentioning a bug going around early in January and there were quite a few off with it in our place, could it have been the early stages of this? We'll never know.

 

 

 

[Renton 21633]

5 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

I want to stress as well for the avoidance of doubt, that I think the Tories have handled this as well as they could have, with the exception of their initial dithering. I'm not criticising them - I'm just saying that there's a line in the sand somewhere on all of this. Western civilisation is not going to be allowed to be brought down by a virus with a mortality rate of 3%.

 

Nobody is saying it will be, except you. We will face the worst depression in history though, and we will ultimately recover. 

[Rayvin 5223]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

 

We're looking at economic melt down, not armageddon man. There wont be power cuts, there wont be serious food shortages. We'll have controlled lock downs, and releases, of the economy for several months or years. Science and medicine will get on top of it, and THEN we face rebuilding the economy.

 

I'm not saying this is to save lives. I'm saying that saving lives is ultimately the best thing for society and the economy. Not doing these measures is counterproductive, as the USA will find out. 

 

Ok so you're talking about a depression. Ok yes, it'll be annoying for a while indeed, and life will be shit. No arguments from me there.

 

I suppose the US will act as a control group in all of this. I think their economy will bounce back quicker if they take the hit as Trump wants them too, but I don't think it'll be worth the cost in lives.

[Rayvin 5223]

2 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

Nobody is saying it will be, except you. We will face the worst depression in history though, and we will ultimately recover. 

 

Well, tbf, you and I have wildly different definitions of the word "collapse"  

[Renton 21633]

1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

 

Ok so you're talking about a depression. Ok yes, it'll be annoying for a while indeed, and life will be shit. No arguments from me there.

 

I suppose the US will act as a control group in all of this. I think their economy will bounce back quicker if they take the hit as Trump wants them too, but I don't think it'll be worth the cost in lives.

 

It would destroy their healthcare system though. Not just respiratory either, the knock on effects would take down everything. No advanced economy can allow that to happen. 

[ewerk 30629]

I don’t think we’re going to be completely fucked but we are going to need government intervention to stop that. 
 

Why are UK airlines fucked? They aren’t paying labour, fuel or all the maintenance costs? Their main overhead at the moment is lease payments on their fleets and that should be able to be frozen for six months until we get up and running again.

This downturn will be temporary, it won’t be on the same scale as 2008.

[Renton 21633]

2 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Well, tbf, you and I have wildly different definitions of the word "collapse"  

2008 was a collapse. I think this is 5 times worse maybe? 

[ewerk 30629]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

2008 was a collapse. I think this is 5 times worse maybe? 

 You weren’t joking when you said you’d be back to despair today.

[Renton 21633]

Just now, ewerk said:

I don’t think we’re going to be completely fucked but we are going to need government intervention to stop that. 
 

Why are UK airlines fucked? They aren’t paying labour, fuel or all the maintenance costs? Their main overhead at the moment is lease payments on their fleets and that should be able to be frozen for six months until we get up and running again.

This downturn will be temporary, it won’t be on the same scale as 2008.

 

I hope you're right. I hugely doubt you are.

 

I dont see any international flights for a year at least. Not sure any company can survive that. 

[Anorthernsoul 1221]

Interesting list this, some companies should hang their heads in shame. END CLOTHING being one of them.

 

 

 

http://www.whencovidisover.co.uk

[Rayvin 5223]

Just now, Renton said:

2008 was a collapse. I think this is 5 times worse maybe? 

 

2008 was a recession in my book, but it's been a while since I really looked at it. I just think in this era of boundless apocalyptic possibilities, collapse means collapse, and not shrinking  

 

But look, we don't know how bad this is yet anyway - but if the power stays on and the food keeps coming, then for me it's just a depression at worst, and one we'll probably bounce back from fairly quickly (within 5 years), without even the need for a world war this time. The only reason 2008 dragged on was because of austerity.

[Renton 21633]

Just now, ewerk said:

 You weren’t joking when you said you’d be back to despair today.

 

I'm honestly not. It's just economics, and I can see some good coming out of it even. I barely noticed 2008 from a personal pov.

[Renton 21633]

1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

 

2008 was a recession in my book, but it's been a while since I really looked at it. I just think in this era of boundless apocalyptic possibilities, collapse means collapse, and not shrinking  

 

But look, we don't know how bad this is yet anyway - but if the power stays on and the food keeps coming, then for me it's just a depression at worst, and one we'll probably bounce back from fairly quickly (within 5 years), without even the need for a world war this time. The only reason 2008 dragged on was because of austerity.

 

Good. I agree. 

[Renton 21633]

The high street is fucked now mind. Intu will be gone. Places like Fenwicks. Thousands of food and drink outlets gone. Tourism fucked. Manufacturing ditto. It's not going to be easy. 

[ewerk 30629]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

 

I'm honestly not. It's just economics, and I can see some good coming out of it even. I barely noticed 2008 from a personal pov.

This will shine a light on some industry weaknesses but with sensible government intervention these industries can weather the storm and get back to normal when this is over.

2008 had very different causes.

[PaddockLad 17283]

7 minutes ago, ewerk said:

This will shine a light on some industry weaknesses but with sensible government intervention these industries can weather the storm and get back to normal when this is over.

2008 had very different causes.

Same solution though....trillions of pounds/dollars worth of government debt that will again have to be repaid by us..

[sammynb 3357]

10 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

I hope you're right. I hugely doubt you are.

 

I dont see any international flights for a year at least. Not sure any company can survive that. 

 

And the maintenance cost to get a lot of planes who have been sitting doing nothing for 6-12 months will be huge. I cannot see anyone wanting to pay that, so fleets will be much smaller, there will be fewer airlines and countries will be far harder to get into.

International airlines will take a long time to return to where they were prior to Feb 2020.

 

8 minutes ago, Renton said:

The high street is fucked now mind. Intu will be gone. Places like Fenwicks. Thousands of food and drink outlets gone. Tourism fucked. Manufacturing ditto. It's not going to be easy. 

 

That's one small consolation isn't it, the money that will be leaking from Ashley's pockets.

I figure the UK is going to be like here where consectutive Tory governments have fucked manufacturing to the point of no return but they will be clammering to get them started again as it is going to take different countries that supply things like automotive, etc, different timelines to be back on line.

[ewerk 30629]

5 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

Same solution though....trillions of pounds/dollars worth of government debt that will again have to be repaid by us..

I’m terms of workers’ wages then yes but what’s the alternative?

In terms of bailouts then this is very different, these companies aren’t ordinarily loss making and so any bailout based on the government taking a stake shouldn’t mean massive losses.

Edited March 31, 2020 by ewerk

[Gemmill 44931]

The sight of Renton talking Rayvin down from the ledge. I'm welling up here.