Coronavirus

[Isegrim 9737]

A friend who worked in Milan  for some time said that when the closing of bars and public places got announced and before the ban came into effect a large number of Lombardians did use the last chance to go out and the weekend to visit relatives. They are cursing their stupidity now.

[Renton 21388]

28 minutes ago, Isegrim said:

It’s a graph that’s not really giving the right impression imho. The death rate isn’t shown in correlation to the number of cases. There seem to be huge differences. While the death rates in Italy and Spain seem exorbitantly high in other countries it seems probably too low. I guess the right ratios will only be known in a few weeks or months after some consolidation of the data.

Vut what is striking is that it’s pretty essential to keep people apart to stop it spreading to quickly.

I wonder if your PM was heading down to the pub and discuss his newest scientific approach with his advisors over a pint of ale before the pubs were closing...

 

The graph is fine. It's plotting death rate vs date.  These are both solid objective data points. There are obviously massive reasons why country's are different, but time (x) vs death (y) is transparent. Now, notice where Italy is. Look back on its timeline, and compare to the UK. Now also look, the y axis is fucking logarithmic. 

 

Sorry, scrap all that, everything's fine apparently. My mistake.  

Edited March 21, 2020 by Renton

[Dr Gloom 21845]

18 minutes ago, Isegrim said:

It’s a graph that’s not really giving the right impression imho. The death rate isn’t shown in correlation to the number of cases. There seem to be huge differences. While the death rates in Italy and Spain seem exorbitantly high in other countries it seems probably too low. I guess the right ratios will only be known in a few weeks or months after some consolidation of the data.

Vut what is striking is that it’s pretty essential to keep people apart to stop it spreading to quickly.

I wonder if your PM was heading down to the pub and discuss his newest scientific approach with his advisors over a pint of ale before the pubs were closing...

It is quite straightforward data - it maps the death trajectories in different countries, illustrating how quickly the virus spreads. I don’t think it is misleading. 

The death rate differs partially because of testing. Germany, for example, has done fuckloads hence the comparatively low death rate. Then there are demographics - Italy has an ageing population and the death rate there is disproportionately high.

Then there is the question of avoidable deaths - which countries failed to act quickly enough. Which countries were to slow to respond resulting in overwhelmed hospitals? All of these factors come into play. 

[Renton 21388]

9 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

It is quite straightforward data - it maps the death trajectories in different countries, illustrating how quickly the virus spreads. I don’t think it is misleading. 

The death rate differs partially because of testing. Germany, for example, has done fuckloads hence the comparatively low death rate. Then there are demographics - Italy has an ageing population and the death rate there is disproportionately high.

Then there is the question of avoidable deaths - which countries failed to act quickly enough. Which countries were to slow to respond resulting in overwhelmed hospitals? All of these factors come into play. 

 

I agree with almost everything there except "The death rate differs partially because of testing". Death is literally the most objective clinical endpoint there is. Every death here will have been tested, with CV19 as cause of death. Then yeah, we need to understand why the curves are different.

 

I think we will be in a proper lock down this week. And im scared, maybe because im a fanny. 

Edited March 21, 2020 by Renton

[Dr Gloom 21845]

Fair point

[Dougle 3322]

3 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

I agree with almost everything there except "The death rate differs partially because of testing". Death is literally the most objective clinical endpoint there is. Every death here will have been tested, with CV19 as cause of death. Then yeah, we need to understand why the curves are different.

 

I think we will be in a proper lock down this week. And im scared, maybe because im a fanny. 

 

Fanny my arse. Normal is the word.

[Isegrim 9737]

5 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

It is quite straightforward data - it maps the death trajectories in different countries, illustrating how quickly the virus spreads. I don’t think it is misleading. 

The death rate differs partially because of testing. Germany, for example, has done fuckloads hence the comparatively low death rate. Then there are demographics - Italy has an ageing population and the death rate there is disproportionately high.

Then there is the question of avoidable deaths - which countries failed to act quickly enough. Which countries were to slow to respond resulting in overwhelmed hospitals? All of these factors come into play. 

Germany isn’t doing “fuckloads” of testing. It’s doing more testing than other countries but to get tested you still have to show symptoms as well as having been in a region considered to be a risk or having been in contact with someone diagnosed to be infected.

Of course the graph is straight forward in itself, but the picture to me does still look different if you look at the mortality, i. e. number of dead people in relation to the number of cases. You not only have to diagnose people early but do also need the logistics to treat the properly to give people seriously suffering a chance.

[Tdansmith 3242]

I'm officially worried

 Unofficially i'm terrified, my health is not great but the health of a relative i love is worse, a lot worse. 

I'm very guilty of making jokes to gloss over my fears.

  

[Meenzer 15425]

2 minutes ago, Tdansmith said:

I'm very guilty of making jokes to gloss over my fears.

  

 

It's all I know how to do. It's safe to assume I'm terrified most of the time tbh, the virus hasn't changed much in that respect.

[Tdansmith 3242]

2 minutes ago, Meenzer said:

 

It's all I know how to do. It's safe to assume I'm terrified most of the time tbh, the virus hasn't changed much in that respect.

I can honestly say the last two and a half years have been the worse in my life and it's not me who has been poorly.

This virus has kicked my family in the nuts when we are very down.

I did not know what anxiety was a few years ago, i know now.

I honestly did not think life could be so cruel. How wrong i was.

[Renton 21388]

27 minutes ago, Isegrim said:

Germany isn’t doing “fuckloads” of testing. It’s doing more testing than other countries but to get tested you still have to show symptoms as well as having been in a region considered to be a risk or having been in contact with someone diagnosed to be infected.

Of course the graph is straight forward in itself, but the picture to me does still look different if you look at the mortality, i. e. number of dead people in relation to the number of cases. You not only have to diagnose people early but do also need the logistics to treat the properly to give people seriously suffering a chance.

 

The incidence in Germany is relatively low. A lot is from data from skiing areas, where people are relatively young and healthy. Loads of things make Germany's figures look good at the moment. I think you're also a bit behind the curve, and things will deteriorate. However, its indisputable you have much better healthcare capacity. I predict you will have half our mortality rate. If we suffer NHS meltdown, well we will fair even worse.

 

I prefer our healthcare model to yours. Ours is much better imo. But this is a fact; we have been underfunded for a decade. We cut capacity, and we can't cope with this. But tonight we  have at least sequestered the private hospitals. There is hope. 

[Rayvin 5186]

35 minutes ago, Tdansmith said:

I'm officially worried

 Unofficially i'm terrified, my health is not great but the health of a relative i love is worse, a lot worse. 

I'm very guilty of making jokes to gloss over my fears.

  

 

Is this relative well isolated? Like, seriously well isolated? Now is the time to pull out the stops on that.

[Tdansmith 3242]

5 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Is this relative well isolated? Like, seriously well isolated? Now is the time to pull out the stops on that.

yes mate, she is. Thank you 

[Rayvin 5186]

2 minutes ago, Tdansmith said:

yes mate, she is. Thank you 

 

I'm in the same boat with my mum. Seriously vulnerable. We're doing everything we can and at least she's taking it seriously. Sounds like you've done everything you can mate, and you should take comfort from the fact that it will absolutely be making a positive difference.

 

I guess we can all vent feelings in here as we need to as well, which helps.

[Tdansmith 3242]

1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

 

I'm in the same boat with my mum. Seriously vulnerable. We're doing everything we can and at least she's taking it seriously. Sounds like you've done everything you can mate, and you should take comfort from the fact that it will absolutely be making a positive difference.

 

I guess we can all vent feelings in here as we need to as well, which helps.

Last year or the year before i was a tit on here, i just wanted to vent and thought it would be a good idea to work myself on a Newcastle United fan web site, dunno why because i love Newcastle U fuckin' nited.

 

I'm sorry if i made it out like the loved one i'm worried about is my mam or old, she's not. But she is vulnerable.

I hope your mum is safe, i'm sure she will be as she has you to look after her.

 

[Renton 21388]

I'm in a weird situation. My parents literally live next door, in fact the other half of the semi-detached. They are both vulnerable to this, especially my Dad. 

 

 I do the best I can to disinfect myself,  and will enter their house, to talk. Always 2 metres from each other, no drinks etc. 15 mins max. No way, are the kids getting in, despite my mum crying about this. They are in contact over the garden fence, but that's also shit cos my mum's deaf. 

 

My Dad had been surprisingly sensible, and sanguine. He's 87, and is sensible, but accepts he's more than had his fair innings. I love him.  I know we all lose our parents at some time, but I'm  terrified by this. In other countries,  like Italy, funerals have even be banned. 

 

More generally,  im so sick and tired of the last  5 years. It's not been great, in any aspect  of my life. 

[Rayvin 5186]

12 minutes ago, Renton said:

I'm in a weird situation. My parents literally live next door, in fact the other half of the semi-detached. They are both vulnerable to this, especially my Dad. 

 

 I do the best I can to disinfect myself,  and will enter their house, to talk. Always 2 metres from each other, no drinks etc. 15 mins max. No way, are the kids getting in, despite my mum crying about this. They are in contact over the garden fence, but that's also shit cos my mum's deaf. 

 

My Dad had been surprisingly sensible, and sanguine. He's 87, and is sensible, but accepts he's more than had his fair innings. I love him.  I know we all lose our parents at some time, but I'm  terrified by this. In other countries,  like Italy, funerals have even be banned. 

 

More generally,  im so sick and tired of the last  5 years. It's not been great, in any aspect  of my life. 

 

Aye, sounds rough indeed. My last 3 years have been fucking horrific, but was fine before that so not quite as bad.

 

Grim as all this is, we'll make it through. Always darkest before the dawn, and can't get much fucking darker right now.

 

I'm on a social media thing called Next door, which kind of tries to develop local communities in neighbourhoods. So instead of friends, you sign in for your street and you can see things your neighbours post, etc. The number of messages I've seen on there from people offering to help the elderly, nurses, NHS staff, anyone who is vulnerable. I mean there's hundreds.

 

Some people are really stepping up, and that's what will get us through it IMO.

[Dougle 3322]

1 hour ago, Tdansmith said:

Last year or the year before i was a tit on here, i just wanted to vent and thought it would be a good idea to work myself on a Newcastle United fan web site, dunno why because i love Newcastle U fuckin' nited.

 

I'm sorry if i made it out like the loved one i'm worried about is my mam or old, she's not. But she is vulnerable.

I hope your mum is safe, i'm sure she will be as she has you to look after her.

 

 

Fuck Off

[Tdansmith 3242]

8 minutes ago, Dougle said:

 

Fuck Off

You're still upset about my magic roundabout posts a year or two ago aren't you ?

For what it's worth i'm sorry about that

[Gemmill 44487]

Some grim tales in the last couple of pages. Keep the vulnerable in your lives fully isolated, use WhatsApp video calls (easier than Skype cos everyone already has it on their phone) instead of calling in on parents (Renton you know better than me about how this thing is transmitted, so I'm not lecturing you here). I hope everyone on here comes through this unscathed and the same for their families. 

 

Most importantly though, don't lose sight of the fact that this is all temporary. It will be over in an in-the-grand-scheme-of-things relatively short period of time. And if we all do the right thing for that relatively short period of time, we'll hopefully all be around to see what the after looks like. 

 

And I don't want to hear about how yeah it'll be over but the economy will be fucked and all the rest of it, because so fuck. People won't be getting sick and dying and literally everything else is fixable. There'll be a will to fix it too: look at the change in the Tories in the space of two weeks and you've still got John fucking Redwood and IDS saying that they haven't gone far enough. 

 

Widescale loss of life in this country is now inevitable - I know because you dickheads won't stop posting the graphs and going on about it.  But genuinely, if you focus your energies on keeping your families isolated from the total dick moves that some of the rest of the country are engaged in, there's little reason why you don't ALL come out of this fine. Like that doctor said on the prior page - this thing can't crawl under your front door.

 

PS. I know some people are not protected and are having to go to work. I would be walking around with a nappy on if I was in front line healthcare at the minute. I'm sorry that they don't get to do the relatively easy shit that the rest of us do. I'm not even happy that my lass has to turn in to look after key workers' kids tomorrow even though I know it's the right thing to do. 

[Sonatine 11329]

 

Cameron wasn't right about much, but calling this cunt Cummings a psychopath was bang on 

[Anorthernsoul 1221]

31 minutes ago, Sonatine said:

 

Cameron wasn't right about much, but calling this cunt Cummings a psychopath was bang on 

 

The bloke is an abomination. An utter despicable stain on society's bedsheet, and he's advising the PM of the UK.

[Dougle 3322]

How old is the fucker?

[Sonatine 11329]

11 minutes ago, Dougle said:

How old is the fucker?

 

Not old enough sadly, although he never looks the healthiest of people whenever I've seen him on TV.

[Renton 21388]

2 hours ago, Gemmill said:

Some grim tales in the last couple of pages. Keep the vulnerable in your lives fully isolated, use WhatsApp video calls (easier than Skype cos everyone already has it on their phone) instead of calling in on parents (Renton you know better than me about how this thing is transmitted, so I'm not lecturing you here). I hope everyone on here comes through this unscathed and the same for their families. 

 

Most importantly though, don't lose sight of the fact that this is all temporary. It will be over in an in-the-grand-scheme-of-things relatively short period of time. And if we all do the right thing for that relatively short period of time, we'll hopefully all be around to see what the after looks like. 

 

And I don't want to hear about how yeah it'll be over but the economy will be fucked and all the rest of it, because so fuck. People won't be getting sick and dying and literally everything else is fixable. There'll be a will to fix it too: look at the change in the Tories in the space of two weeks and you've still got John fucking Redwood and IDS saying that they haven't gone far enough. 

 

Widescale loss of life in this country is now inevitable - I know because you dickheads won't stop posting the graphs and going on about it.  But genuinely, if you focus your energies on keeping your families isolated from the total dick moves that some of the rest of the country are engaged in, there's little reason why you don't ALL come out of this fine. Like that doctor said on the prior page - this thing can't crawl under your front door.

 

PS. I know some people are not protected and are having to go to work. I would be walking around with a nappy on if I was in front line healthcare at the minute. I'm sorry that they don't get to do the relatively easy shit that the rest of us do. I'm not even happy that my lass has to turn in to look after key workers' kids tomorrow even though I know it's the right thing to do. 

 

Love this post.

 

I'm sure this is an issue for many people, but my parents are hopeless with technology, the idea of Skype is good but won't work. Because of the deafness issue, phoning isn't really an option either. My mum can lip read. I'm going to go round today, briefly, using as many precautions as I can. I think the risk is small as we are in the NE, but I know it's there. Thereafter it will probably just me talking from the front garden., or at the window. Quite bizarre.