Miguel Almiron

[OTF 7295]

3 hours ago, toonotl said:

Read a nice article about Almiron's improved form on the Athletic by the music hater. It mentioned that Almiron's form had caused a rethink in transfer targets for his position. It's an interesting one and I suppose comes down to whether or not Almiron has turned into a 1-in-3 winger. It's possible. It could at least allow us to aim slightly more towards a young player with potential at RW to be Almiron's understudy instead of going for a replacement in someone established and more expensive.

 

The training they've been doing with Almiron is covered in the article. It's brilliant stuff to read about the intricacies but also the simplicity of it. Getting him to watch video of top players to analyse runs. Repeated drills practicing said runs. Repeated drills with Bruno and Tripps practicing anticipating when to make runs. Aiming his shots higher in the net. Really cool to see the level of detail. The stats bear out the results too to perhaps make the argument that Almiron's improvement (though not sustainable at this insane level obviously) is perhaps permanent. Given his work rate, if he can score 10-12 goals a season with half a dozen assists then he's transformed into a brilliant player that we would really not want to replace except perhaps for tactical reason from game to game or to rest him.

 

In addition to that now that we're garnering a lot more possession, and a lot of it further up the pitch, his pressing and pace can more frequently be put to use. Previously if he was pressing he was doing it on his own to little effect.

 

I don't think anyone is expecting him to maintain this return of goals but he absolutely should continue to be a thorn in opposing sides as he suits our high tempo pressing perfectly. His fitness is next level, looking fresh and spritely deep into the second half of games. Long may he continue to work on his passing combinations and final ball (whether a shot or pass) and avoid going to ground softly.

[Isegrim 9780]

Just to think that there was talk about a player-plus-cash deal involving Almiron  to sign the Sloth-lookalike from Everton…

[ohhh_yeah 2967]

6 in a row, marra.   

 

 

[PaddockLad 17281]

15 hours ago, The Fish said:

I'm sure you've predicted big tings for flops, and I'm sure you've also called players worse than shit and been proven wrong.

 

Stats are sweet sweet objectivity baby.

Can you predict a player’s potential with subjective data of what a player has done previously?   Or is the data literally a snapshot? 

 

One thing stats fail to take account of properly is the opposition. A players figures are skewed by the quality he’s playing against. Useful for a myriad of things undoubtedly, but they don’t tell the whole story. And never will… 

[The Fish 10857]

2 hours ago, PaddockLad said:

Can you predict a player’s potential with subjective data of what a player has done previously?   Or is the data literally a snapshot? 

 

One thing stats fail to take account of properly is the opposition. A players figures are skewed by the quality he’s playing against. Useful for a myriad of things undoubtedly, but they don’t tell the whole story. And never will… 

 

You can use data to see when a player has underlying performances that are perhaps an indicator that he can kick on, yeah. e.g. there's a striker in a lower league, he's banging goals in for fun 22 for the season already, the scout sees him bag a brace and dominate the defenders. But when you look at his underlying metrics for the season, he's way below his xG and his post-shot xG is even worse, his pass % is poor etc. 

 

The stats don't ignore the opposition, the stats average out the opposition. It doesn't matter if Pascal Fancypants is playing in the J-League or Serie A, if he consistently outperforms his xG, consistently completes a high number of passes, and all the metrics that aren't publicly available look good, then yeah clubs can use data to identify players with potential to play at a higher level than they currently are. Why would the elite clubs spend so much on recruitment analysis and data teams if it couldn't?

[PaddockLad 17281]

8 minutes ago, The Fish said:

 

You can use data to see when a player has underlying performances that are perhaps an indicator that he can kick on, yeah. e.g. there's a striker in a lower league, he's banging goals in for fun 22 for the season already, the scout sees him bag a brace and dominate the defenders. But when you look at his underlying metrics for the season, he's way below his xG and his post-shot xG is even worse, his pass % is poor etc. 

 

The stats don't ignore the opposition, the stats average out the opposition. It doesn't matter if Pascal Fancypants is playing in the J-League or Serie A, if he consistently outperforms his xG, consistently completes a high number of passes, and all the metrics that aren't publicly available look good, then yeah clubs can use data to identify players with potential to play at a higher level than they currently are. Why would the elite clubs spend so much on recruitment analysis and data teams if it couldn't?

So why would the snapshot of one seasons stats suggest anything in the future? The naked eye would suggest the striker is missing chances. Did Miggys stats before the 1st October 2022 suggest this? I have a feeling they may have. Is that something we could see with our own eyes? Do the stats indicate that he was about to have a massive upturn in his finishing ability due to seemingly intensive and specialised coaching? …

[The Fish 10857]

4 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

So why would the snapshot of one seasons stats suggest anything in the future? The naked eye would suggest the striker is missing chances. Did Miggys stats before the 1st October 2022 suggest this? I have a feeling they may have. Is that something we could see with our own eyes? Do the stats indicate that he was about to have a massive upturn in his finishing ability due to seemingly intensive and specialised coaching? …

Well, obviously you don't just look at one season, but in essence, yeah a season's worth of performance metrics is a decent indication.

 

You'd have to watch every game of the player to apply the eye test rigorously and teams won't commit to that, they'll watch them for 3 or 4 matches. In those matches they'll be focussed more on the intangibles; how did he react to missing a chance, how did he behave when the team went behind, did he listen to instructions from the sidelines, how did he take being subbed off. The talent pool these days is huge and there's no way you can send scouts around the globe to watch a 17yr old Brazilian play 3 games then make a recommendation off the back of that. The risks are too large. Better to use the data resources to narrow the field, then send a scout to watch the shortlist.

 

The stats and eye test will have influenced the intensive and specialised training he undertook to improve his game. They'll use specialises sensors in training to guide changes to his stance, his gait, his kicking motion to get the optimal return from his play. 

[Craig 6682]

Stats support a narrative. They can only ever be used as supporting evidence rather than definitive evidence.

[PaddockLad 17281]

1 hour ago, The Fish said:

Well, obviously you don't just look at one season, but in essence, yeah a season's worth of performance metrics is a decent indication.

 

You'd have to watch every game of the player to apply the eye test rigorously and teams won't commit to that, they'll watch them for 3 or 4 matches. In those matches they'll be focussed more on the intangibles; how did he react to missing a chance, how did he behave when the team went behind, did he listen to instructions from the sidelines, how did he take being subbed off. The talent pool these days is huge and there's no way you can send scouts around the globe to watch a 17yr old Brazilian play 3 games then make a recommendation off the back of that. The risks are too large. Better to use the data resources to narrow the field, then send a scout to watch the shortlist.

 

The stats and eye test will have influenced the intensive and specialised training he undertook to improve his game. They'll use specialises sensors in training to guide changes to his stance, his gait, his kicking motion to get the optimal return from his play. 

Ok Dave, I’ll be straight with you. You’re not telling me, and haven’t done for months on end, a single thing I don’t know, haven’t observed with my own eyes or can logically work out for myself. Now can you just accept that xG is utter fuckin bollocks so we can just get on with our lives?  

 

Thanks & best regards 

 

The posters of Toontastic 👍

[Holden McGroin 6587]

So, to sum up again just in case anyone couldn't work it out from watching the games - Almiron is playing out of his skin. 

[The Fish 10857]

39 minutes ago, Craig said:

Stats support a narrative. They can only ever be used as supporting evidence rather than definitive evidence.

 

Stats can also reject a narrative. e.g. 'Joelinton is lazy'. His stats proved otherwise. I guess in that instance they're supporting an alternative narrative.

 

They're more objective than the eye test though.

 

Like, people are saying Everton have a good defence because they're not conceding a lot of goals. But stats show that they're giving up a good number of good chances, only Fulham, Forest and Bournemouth are doing worse in that (high xGA). Pickford's post shot xG is high, that means he's saving more shots than you'd expect a 'keeper to save. Only Bournemouth are allowing more attempted crosses, and only Man Utd's 'keeper is claiming fewer than Pickford. Everton have allowed the most shots in the league (214), and the 5th highest Shots on target (Fulham Forest and Bournemouth allow more). The average distance from goal that a shot is taken is 16yds. Excluding Penalties, they are 9 goals better off than you'd expect them to concede, we're behind them in second place with 2.7 fewer goals than expected. Only 3 teams press less than they do as well. 

 

So, stats show that they're not fundamentally not good defensively, and are hugely reliant on their goal keeper. He gets injured or loses form/confidence and you'd expect them to start shipping goals. 

[RobinRobin 11281]

20 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

Ok Dave, I’ll be straight with you. You’re not telling me, and haven’t done for months on end, a single thing I don’t know, haven’t observed with my own eyes or can logically work out for myself. Now can you just accept that xG is utter fuckin bollocks so we can just get on with our lives?  

 

Thanks & best regards 

 

The posters of Toontastic 👍

IS We're waiting for Diego

[The Fish 10857]

20 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

Ok Dave, I’ll be straight with you. You’re not telling me, and haven’t done for months on end, a single thing I don’t know, haven’t observed with my own eyes or can logically work out for myself. Now can you just accept that xG is utter fuckin bollocks so we can just get on with our lives?  

 

Thanks & best regards 

 

The posters of Toontastic 👍

It's thinking like this that saw Middlesbrough sign Aphonso Alves and Newcastle fans call Joelinton lazy.

 

Enjoy the darkness, or join us in the light.

[RobinRobin 11281]

8 minutes ago, The Fish said:

 Newcastle fans call Joelinton lazy. 

Does anyone else miss Essembee? 

[PaddockLad 17281]

8 minutes ago, The Fish said:

It's thinking like this that saw Middlesbrough sign Aphonso Alves and Newcastle fans call Joelinton lazy.

 

Enjoy the darkness, or join us in the light.

It’s not, because me you and every other fucker on here aren’t paid to recruit players. Has Miggys xG gone up this month by any chance?…

[Meenzer 15531]

16 minutes ago, RobinRobin said:

Does anyone else miss Essembee? 

 

[Monkeys Fist 42459]

1 hour ago, The Fish said:

 

Stats can also reject a narrative. e.g. 'Joelinton is lazy'. His stats proved otherwise. I guess in that instance they're supporting an alternative narrative.

 

They're more objective than the eye test though.

 

Like, people are saying Everton have a good defence because they're not conceding a lot of goals. But stats show that they're giving up a good number of good chances, only Fulham, Forest and Bournemouth are doing worse in that (high xGA). Pickford's post shot xG is high, that means he's saving more shots than you'd expect a 'keeper to save. Only Bournemouth are allowing more attempted crosses, and only Man Utd's 'keeper is claiming fewer than Pickford. Everton have allowed the most shots in the league (214), and the 5th highest Shots on target (Fulham Forest and Bournemouth allow more). I just wanted to see if anyone could be arsed to read this twice, crack on lads, love and hugs, fist. The average distance from goal that a shot is taken is 16yds. Excluding Penalties, they are 9 goals better off than you'd expect them to concede, we're behind them in second place with 2.7 fewer goals than expected. Only 3 teams press less than they do as well. 

 

So, stats show that they're not fundamentally not good defensively, and are hugely reliant on their goal keeper. He gets injured or loses form/confidence and you'd expect them to start shipping goals. 

FYP 

[PaddockLad 17281]

41 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

It’s not, because me you and every other fucker on here aren’t paid to recruit players. Has Miggys xG gone up this month by any chance?…

Dave’s ignored this so I looked it up…now, am no expert obviously, but it would appear to me that Miggys xG * has gone up this season by nearly 300%  Well colour me flabbergasted… I think we can now officially call xG “counting the number of goals scored “  

 

https://understat.com/player/7420

 

* other stats are available which am sure are invaluable to football professionals. xG isn’t one of them though, it’s just fuckin counting  

[Alex 35095]

15 hours ago, toonotl said:

Read a nice article about Almiron's improved form on the Athletic by the music hater. It mentioned that Almiron's form had caused a rethink in transfer targets for his position. It's an interesting one and I suppose comes down to whether or not Almiron has turned into a 1-in-3 winger. It's possible. It could at least allow us to aim slightly more towards a young player with potential at RW to be Almiron's understudy instead of going for a replacement in someone established and more expensive.

 

The training they've been doing with Almiron is covered in the article. It's brilliant stuff to read about the intricacies but also the simplicity of it. Getting him to watch video of top players to analyse runs. Repeated drills practicing said runs. Repeated drills with Bruno and Tripps practicing anticipating when to make runs. Aiming his shots higher in the net. Really cool to see the level of detail. The stats bear out the results too to perhaps make the argument that Almiron's improvement (though not sustainable at this insane level obviously) is perhaps permanent. Given his work rate, if he can score 10-12 goals a season with half a dozen assists then he's transformed into a brilliant player that we would really not want to replace except perhaps for tactical reason from game to game or to rest him.

Surprised they don’t just chuck a ball in the air and say “Let’s play”. 

[Alex 35095]

1 hour ago, RobinRobin said:

Does anyone else miss Essembee? 

Good and proper 

[trophyshy 7083]

[Gemmill 44900]

19 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

Dave’s ignored this so I looked it up…now, am no expert obviously, but it would appear to me that Miggys xG * has gone up this season by nearly 300%  Well colour me flabbergasted… I think we can now officially call xG “counting the number of goals scored “  

 

https://understat.com/player/7420

 

* other stats are available which am sure are invaluable to football professionals. xG isn’t one of them though, it’s just fuckin counting  

 

[Rayvin 5223]

How is the 'expected' bit of XG established again? Do they have a database of all goals with specific criteria assigned and then do a weighted average (which would be awesome) or is it just goals from a specific part of the box? (which would be practical but not as awesome).

[Holden McGroin 6587]

And does it base it on ability?

 

For example if Kevin De Buyrne is free, 22 yards out I'd expect him to score just about every time. If it was Jamal Lascelles, I wouldn't.

[The Fish 10857]

17 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

How is the 'expected' bit of XG established again? Do they have a database of all goals with specific criteria assigned and then do a weighted average (which would be awesome) or is it just goals from a specific part of the box? (which would be practical but not as awesome).

Not just chances that end up in a goal, but yeah, lots of criteria, including but not limited to; distance from goal, angle, body part, how the chance comes about (cross/pass/dribble/rebound), where the goal keeper is, where the defenders are and so on.

 

Collect all of those data points from 1,000s of chances in 1,000s of matches in various competitions.

 

It ignores subjective opinions of ability because keeping things level means that a player that consistently outperforms his xG has his superiority reflected in his goals vs expected goals, and someone who consistently underperforms the xG has his inferiority reflected.