Jamaal's jizz-juggling, trouser snake-shakers v Huddersfield

[Rayvin 5217]

6 minutes ago, adios said:

@Rayvin Were you awake for the last three windows as a matter of interest?   

 

I thought our January business was fine, on the grounds that we have pulled clear (more or less) of relegation. At the time I was worried, but apparently the management structure at the club were capable of making a better decision than I would have been from the outside looking in

 

The summer's business was frustrating for sure, and I think you can clearly point to the failure to spend pulling us into a relegation fight but on the other side of things, if not for a late capitulation against Bournemouth we'd be 10th. And yeah the margins are so fine that my argument looks stronger at the moment because it ignores the fact that we're only 7 points about the drop zone but honestly, if we're saying that Ashley gambled on the club staying up by virtue of having a really good manager, and used this as a reason not to end up paying over the odds in the last window, then really, you have to say that his gamble has paid off. There is no other way of looking at it in the short term. We will not go down, and honestly we look like fairly good shouts for midtable.

 

As for the January window in the Championship - yep, frustrating again, but we went up top of the table. So again, another Ashley gamble that paid off. And yeah it's down to Rafa, but he did hire Rafa at the end of the day.

[adios 717]

Gambles paying off does not equate to good decision making.

[adios 717]

There's a reason we don't refer to good business people as gamblers, even though we all gamble constantly, particularly good business people.

[Rayvin 5217]

2 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Just because a gamble's paid off, does not mean it wasn't a stupid bloody gamble. The lack of investment in last season's winter window was proof positive that the man is idiotic when it comes to football. Every man and his dog knew that the price of players was only going to go up and, at the time, we were in 2nd only 6pts clear of 3rd. Given we had the money, given play offs are a gamble in themselves, given the club was an easier sell then than it was in the previous summer, given Rafa, given everything... that's when we should have invested. Loan a young player from an elite club, with a view to buying if we went up. Buy a bit of quality from a struggling side to carry us over the finish line. 

Spending less than he promised is one thing, to be outspent by Brighton and Huddersfield is ridiculous. 

Don't forget about the nonsense surrounding the failed takeover too. If Benitez walks, do does a significant chunk of the club's resale value. If we're not a Premier League club, we're worth far less. He could have banked a profit on the club and walked off into the sunset, never needing to worry about the mean Geordies ever again.

 

Not hugely convinced that Stavely was serious, as I said at the time. Her offer was derisory compared to what was being asked for. Yeah you could argue that Ashley coulda just taken it and run but I don't think he's that desperate to be out tbh. If the club lives within its means then it's not a headache to him.

 

He has gambled on Rafa several times now and it has paid off each time. Maybe he has more faith in the guy than you do?

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3892]

Fuck me how many times does Ashley have to eye fuck you before you stop letting him cuff you when you give him a blow job?

[The Fish 10856]

8 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

You think we need to sign those two players, a striker, left and right backs and another first teamer in the centre, plus youth investment, to hit what? Top 10? We're already within touching distance of that with the loanees. If we had them for a full season you would think we would be 8th to 10th. With the additional players you're talking about I suspect we could be pushing into 7th but... is that really what we should be aiming for next season? I reckon Rafa would be satisfied with the ability to go top 10 and a decent cup run personally.

This season. But this season is aberrant, imo. Three sides who would traditionally occupy the middle of the league are going to be relegated (as things stand). There's been underperformance across the board, Man City and Liverpool's attack aside, the league has been poor. Man Utd have been poor for much of the season and yet sit happily ensconced in 2nd. Man Utd, Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal, Everton, Southampton, Stoke, West Brom, Crystal Palace... all will say they've had a disappointing season.

When the club's strengthen, and they will all strengthen, simply hoping to repeat this season's performances in 18/19 will lead to calamity.

[Rayvin 5217]

1 minute ago, adios said:

Gambles paying off does not equate to good decision making.

 

Yeah but it depends on to what extent you consider it a gamble anyway. Ok so Ashley could have taken out £100m to pay for players, and loaded more debt onto the club - a gamble in itself. Or he could have done what he did, trusted the team that was promoted, trusted that it could perform better than much of the dross in the PL with Rafa at the helm, and moved forward from there. If that's the decision he came to after full analysis of the information at his disposal, keeping in mind that the club can 'only spend what it generates', then I'm happy that this is a good business decision. Benefit of hindsight for sure, but it's hard to argue that a midtable finish on a minimal outlay is anything other than a success story for both Rafa and Ashley.

[The Fish 10856]

2 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Not hugely convinced that Stavely was serious, as I said at the time. Her offer was derisory compared to what was being asked for. Yeah you could argue that Ashley coulda just taken it and run but I don't think he's that desperate to be out tbh. If the club lives within its means then it's not a headache to him.

 

He has gambled on Rafa several times now and it has paid off each time. Maybe he has more faith in the guy than you do?

Her offer was closer to a reasonable valuation of the club than Ashley's reported £400m. 

I've faith in Benitez, I've zero faith in Ashley. And just because his gambles are coming off at the minute, doesn't mean there's not a snake eyes round the corner.

[Rayvin 5217]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Carr's Gloves said:

Fuck me how many times does Ashley have to eye fuck you before you stop letting him cuff you when you give him a blow job?

 

I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him, I'm just saying that looking at his behaviour over the past couple of years, he's actually backed the right outcome each time so far. And you have to assume that his only interest is financial - and there's a decent case for keeping Rafa, and keeping him fairly happy, being a good financial decision.

[adios 717]

The £100m was guaranteed income, it's not a gamble, it's good business.

 

Two relegations in ten(?) seasons.  That's what gambling gets you.

[Rayvin 5217]

3 minutes ago, The Fish said:

This season. But this season is aberrant, imo. Three sides who would traditionally occupy the middle of the league are going to be relegated (as things stand). There's been underperformance across the board, Man City and Liverpool's attack aside, the league has been poor. Man Utd have been poor for much of the season and yet sit happily ensconced in 2nd. Man Utd, Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal, Everton, Southampton, Stoke, West Brom, Crystal Palace... all will say they've had a disappointing season.

When the club's strengthen, and they will all strengthen, simply hoping to repeat this season's performances in 18/19 will lead to calamity.

 

But we will strengthen too.

 

Look, the proof is going to be the summer window. I think we will spend, I think much of the expenditure will come from non-player sales based funds. I have no idea how much but given the figures being thrown around last summer by the other clubs, I think we could reasonably expect about £30-40m net.

 

If I'm wrong then Ashley is clearly trying to do something other than run a sustainable football club. Or we've woefully overestimated how much additional revenue this TV deal should free up. All I'm saying is that his decision making over the past couple of years has, demonstrably, been successful. It doesn't mean I trust him, or like him, but it does mean that actually, something is working.

[Rayvin 5217]

9 minutes ago, adios said:

The £100m was guaranteed income, it's not a gamble, it's good business.

 

Two relegations in ten(?) seasons.  That's what gambling gets you.

 

Agreed, but the first one wasn't caused by his cost-cutting bollocks, and the second one could have been a learning experience. It's not like Ashley is gonna sit there and think that saving £20m at the risk of losing £100m is a workable idea unless he is presumably something like 80% sure it will pay off. Businesses manage risk and sure, football is riskier than many other industries, but you still need to draw a line in the sand somewhere. If the club is spending what it generates, and he sticks to this, then I'm happy. So far so good if we stay up.

 

Also, Ashley spend £80m the season we went down didn't he? So he gambled that an £80m outlay would be enough to secure £100m. What he didn't appreciate was that McClaren was turboshit.

Edited April 3, 2018 by Rayvin

[Tdansmith 3259]

11 minutes ago, Kevin Carr's Gloves said:

Fuck me how many times does Ashley have to eye fuck you before you stop letting him cuff you when you give him a blow job?

I think you should get off the fence and tell us what you think 

[Andrew 4748]

14 minutes ago, Kevin Carr's Gloves said:

Fuck me how many times does Ashley have to eye fuck you before you stop letting him cuff you when you give him a blow job?

 

This a thousand times, what planet are you on rayvin?

[Rayvin 5217]

 

This is all going to be fairly easy to determine. If we have a net spend of £30m+ in the summer, I'm going to assume I was right

 

EDIT - £40m I guess with Dubravka and Kennedy, minus any squad players going out.

Edited April 3, 2018 by Rayvin

[adios 717]

9 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

All I'm saying is that his decision making over the past couple of years has, demonstrably, been successful.

No no and again no, sir!

 

I have no idea what a statistically significant sample is in this instance but this sure as fuck isn't it (especially given how close this one's been).

 

Off your meds or on the wind-up today?   

[Andrew 4748]

3 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

This is all going to be fairly easy to determine. If we have a net spend of £30m+ in the summer, I'm going to assume I was right

 

EDIT - £40m I guess with Dubravka and Kennedy, minus any squad players going out.

 

I'll take that, firm up some terms and call it a tenner to the SBR foundation!

 

Would you prefer net >£30 million plus Dubravka and Kenedy in or >£40 million.

[Rayvin 5217]

Just now, adios said:

No no and again no, sir!

 

I have no idea what a statistically significant sample is in this instance but this sure as fuck isn't it (especially given how close this one's been).

 

Off your meds or on the wind-up today?   

 

 

I'm bored.

 

Although the summer window spending bit is actually something I believe.

[Rayvin 5217]

4 minutes ago, Andrew said:

 

I'll take that, firm up some terms and call it a tenner to the SBR foundation!

 

Would you prefer net >£30 million plus Dubravka and Kenedy in or >£40 million.

 

 Sure, a tenner it is.

 

Hm... I don't actually think we'll get Kennedy in the end so I'm going to go for the >£40m. And besides agreeing on a tenner to the SBR, what other terms would we need? Falls due when the window closes I guess? Although Dubravka and Kennedy, if bought, are included in the £40m.

Edited April 3, 2018 by Rayvin

[Alex 35076]

41 minutes ago, Kevin Carr's Gloves said:

Fuck me how many times does Ashley have to eye fuck you before you stop letting him cuff you when you give him a blow job?

[Andrew 4748]

19 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

 Sure, a tenner it is.

 

Hm... I don't actually think we'll get Kennedy in the end so I'm going to go for the >£40m. And besides agreeing on a tenner to the SBR, what other terms would we need? Falls due when the window closes I guess? Although Dubravka and Kennedy, if bought, are included in the £40m.

 

Net spend by the end of the transfer window seems right to me?

 

[Rayvin 5217]

Just now, Andrew said:

 

Net spend by the end of the transfer window seems right to me?

 

 

Sure thing.

 

I may need to be advised what is considered proof of payment to them at the time mind you? I assume a screenshot of a receipt or something? Not that I'll lose of course

[Andrew 4748]

Just now, Rayvin said:

 

Sure thing.

 

I may need to be advised what is considered proof of payment to them at the time mind you? I assume a screenshot of a receipt or something? Not that I'll lose of course

 

I trust you to have paid if you say you have.

[Rayvin 5217]

Oh. Well fair enough - I seem to recall there being some manner of previous scandals on here with people not paying (Deano?) so I just figured a precedent had been set. But yeah, more than happy to operate on trust.

[Alex 35076]

Another thing that Benitez is acutely aware of (although I doubt Ashley is) going off that talk-in at the Tyneside Cinema is how high the general standard is in the Premier League. Not saying it's da bestest league in da world eva but even sides coming up are able to have pretty huge transfer outlays due to the TV money and West Brom apart I don't think there are any really poor sides in the division. Next season will be similar so as Adios alluded to before we'll have to spend a canny bit of money just to tread water let alone progress.