Dr Gloom 21823 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Just now, Park Life said: I think it's a myth that Labour stood a better chance with a soft Left Blairite type candidate. I was raging to Corby to step down a few weeks ago but I hadn't even started my proper analysis. Once I got the runes out it all changed. i blame saturn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaddockLad 17112 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Park Life said: The people in the cave are all the ones who maintain Corby is unelectable. Right. Rentons looking well That makes the realeased prisoner Rayvin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5186 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Just now, PaddockLad said: Right. Rentons looking well That makes the realeased prisoner Rayvin Apparently I need to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 71 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Dr Gloom said: i blame saturn There will be one more turn of the wheel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGingerQuiff 2412 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Never really looked at constituency betting much before but I've just looked at Sedgefield and Labour are 1/3, which imo looks a big price for a typical safe seat. Is that a normal price or is the seat at risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5186 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, PaddockLad said: Right. Rentons looking well That makes the realeased prisoner Rayvin It is how it feels sometimes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meenzer 15412 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, Rayvin said: I see, so you think the only reason anyone is ever elected to anything is entirely to do with the person themselves, with no mitigating circumstances surrounding the event whatsoever. Brown - unelectable. Miliband - unelectable. Churchill - unelectable. To hell with details Howay, you must know by now when I'm on the wind-up. A bit, anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21364 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Rayvin said: I don't think he's unelectable based on any logical or rational measure. He's only unelectable based on a media hysteria measure. That said, I still think he's done well in the face of it. Did you ever listen to that R4 podcast I recommended, "the Corbyn story"? It might alter your manlove of JC somewhat. I respect the opinions of the likes of Alan Johnson. The man is a charlatan. Always has been. Sitting on the back benches sniping at the PLP leadership his entire useless career. How the fuck he expected their support is beyond me, he's never reciprocated. You think people voting Tory are brain washed by the media. You just can't accept they may have a different point of view. I'll hold my nose and vote Corbyn because the alternative is even worse. But you know, even if by some miracle he was elected I wouldn't have much faith he'd do a good job or that a lot if his policies are workable. But he won't get elected. Because he's unelectable. Edited June 7, 2017 by Renton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5186 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, Renton said: Did you ever listen to that R4 podcast I recommended, "the Corbyn story"? It might alter your manlove of JC somewhat. I respect the opinions of the likes of Alan Johnson. The man is a charlatan. Always has been. Sitting on the back benches sniping at the PLP leadership his entire useless career. How the fuck he expected their support is beyond ND me, he's never reciprocated. You think people voting Tory are brain mashed by the media. You just can't accept they may have a different point of view. I'll hold my nose and vote Corbyn because the alternative is even worse. But you know, even if by some miracle he was elected I wouldn't have much faith he'd do a good job or that a lot if his policies are workable. But he won't get elected. Because he's unelectable. I'm not bothered about Corbyn particularly, save for observations that he appears to be principled, honest and consistent. He's not the point for me though, it's the policies. I don't know how many times I have to say that, but it seems to always need to be one more time. If he goes, and is replaced with someone like Trudeau (but with principles) who the press can all circlejerk over but who still fits the policy profile - then great. Suits me. The PLP should have supported him because the ideology underlying Blairism has collapsed. Utterly. It is on the floor, and it's being kicked shitless by the right. Their absolute refusal to grasp this has greatly damaged the party. So finally then - on people's different points of view. Your view and mine, on politics, were almost entirely identical pre-Brexit. Since the referendum, I have researched, read around, listened to speakers from all sides of the spectrum, and have developed my own view on what is happening based on that. My position moved, yours hasn't. I personally believe that you don't see the bigger picture in all of this, and view things like Trump, Brexit, Corbyn as random and almost unrelated events in a spell of dismal political developments that you've gently posited may come from a resistance to globalisation, but for which you believe there is no solution. Other people are reaching for a solution - that is why we are where we are. That is why this is happening. The genie isn't going back in the bottle until a solution is found. For me, I'd far rather that solution came from the left - because people like Trump are a solution as well. A bad one with all manner of disastrous consequences, but they'll still get the job done given time. Bringing the old Blairite way back into the mix isn't going to help anyone, and will eventually lead to our own version of Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21364 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rayvin said: I'm not bothered about Corbyn particularly, save for observations that he appears to be principled, honest and consistent. He's not the point for me though, it's the policies. I don't know how many times I have to say that, but it seems to always need to be one more time. If he goes, and is replaced with someone like Trudeau (but with principles) who the press can all circlejerk over but who still fits the policy profile - then great. Suits me. The PLP should have supported him because the ideology underlying Blairism has collapsed. Utterly. It is on the floor, and it's being kicked shitless by the right. Their absolute refusal to grasp this has greatly damaged the party. So finally then - on people's different points of view. Your view and mine, on politics, were almost entirely identical pre-Brexit. Since the referendum, I have researched, read around, listened to speakers from all sides of the spectrum, and have developed my own view on what is happening based on that. My position moved, yours hasn't. I personally believe that you don't see the bigger picture in all of this, and view things like Trump, Brexit, Corbyn as random and almost unrelated events in a spell of dismal political developments that you've gently posited may come from a resistance to globalisation, but for which you believe there is no solution. Other people are reaching for a solution - that is why we are where we are. That is why this is happening. The genie isn't going back in the bottle until a solution is found. For me, I'd far rather that solution came from the left - because people like Trump are a solution as well. A bad one with all manner of disastrous consequences, but they'll still get the job done given time. Bringing the old Blairite way back into the mix isn't going to help anyone, and will eventually lead to our own version of Trump. I don't see how Corbyn has the solutions to globalism. In what way do you think he has? I'm also unsure about some (not all) of his policies. For instance, increasing MW to £10 ph. Not sure if small independent businesses can afford this or the effect of decreasing the differential between skilled an d unskilled jobs. It would almost certainly massively stoke inflation too. Also, these shock results only occurred on the Anglo-Saxon countries. Europe has so far rejected change. I think you're going to be disappointed of you think the world will change for the better any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5186 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Just now, Renton said: I don't see how Corbyn has the solutions to globalism. In what way do you think he has? I'm also unsure about some (not all) of his policies. For instance, increasing MW to £10 ph. Not sure if small independent businesses can afford this or the effect of decreasing the differential between skilled an d unskilled jobs. It would almost certainly massively stoke inflation too. Also, these shock results only occurred on the Anglo-Saxon countries. Europe has so far rejected change. I think you're going to be disappointed of you think the world will change for the better any time soon. I am highly cynical of the world's ability to do anything other than slow down our own (self)destruction, so don't worry about me being disappointed. I'm amazed that the whole Corbyn project even got off the ground. The world needs to transition to a new model for living since we aren't going to have sufficient jobs to sustain everyone under the current model, for very much longer. Whether that means things like UIs, population controls, etc, I don't know. But I'd far rather the solutions were coming from the left. If we leave it to the right, we'll end up with gated communities of the wealthy, with the feral 'normal people' living outside in tribal communities and chewing on each other's legs to pass the time. It's not about whether Corbyn is able to provide a solution, it's about the establishment recognising that it has to change and can't just respond to problems after the fact. We need a long term model for assessing the challenges we're facing, which is very difficult to do in 5 year electoral cycles. Unless you have people like Corbyn who are going to consistently stick to what they believe in, and not just what is a vote winner on that day of the week. He will fail, ultimately. But he's widened the fucking Overton window, and that's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21364 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Rayvin said: I am highly cynical of the world's ability to do anything other than slow down our own (self)destruction, so don't worry about me being disappointed. I'm amazed that the whole Corbyn project even got off the ground. The world needs to transition to a new model for living since we aren't going to have sufficient jobs to sustain everyone under the current model, for very much longer. Whether that means things like UIs, population controls, etc, I don't know. But I'd far rather the solutions were coming from the left. If we leave it to the right, we'll end up with gated communities of the wealthy, with the feral 'normal people' living outside in tribal communities and chewing on each other's legs to pass the time. It's not about whether Corbyn is able to provide a solution, it's about the establishment recognising that it has to change and can't just respond to problems after the fact. We need a long term model for assessing the challenges we're facing, which is very difficult to do in 5 year electoral cycles. Unless you have people like Corbyn who are going to consistently stick to what they believe in, and not just what is a vote winner on that day of the week. He will fail, ultimately. But he's widened the fucking Overton window, and that's a start. See this is another area where I believe Corbyn fails. The problems you've correctly reported require multilateral solutions. But Corbyn I feel at heart is an isolationist. I saw the solution beginning with the EU, shared values and heritage. Corbyn was always against the project. Ultimately though I don't rate his intellect one bit, and that's a problem because you need someone with the big ideas and the intelligence to implement them. Edited June 7, 2017 by Renton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5186 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 21 minutes ago, Renton said: See this is another area where I believe Corbyn fails. The problems you've correctly reported require multilateral solutions. But Corbyn I feel at heart is an isolationist. I saw the solution beginning with the EU, shared values and heritage. Corbyn was always against the project. Ultimately though I don't rate his intellect one bit, and that's a problem because you need someone with the big ideas and the intelligence to implement them. Agreed on the EU, agreed on Corbyn not being an intellectual powerhouse. But look, the PLP clearly weren't listening. You could see that through their dogged following of the Tories over austerity. Their voting over that welfare bill. They needed to be shaken and they have been. If they see Corbyn's likely defeat as an opportunity to go back to what they were doing, we're in dire fucking trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJS 4373 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 I suppose if he does resign, the positive is it'll be three years ahead of what it could have been. Of course 2 extra years of Tory rule is one hell of a price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21364 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Rayvin said: Agreed on the EU, agreed on Corbyn not being an intellectual powerhouse. But look, the PLP clearly weren't listening. You could see that through their dogged following of the Tories over austerity. Their voting over that welfare bill. They needed to be shaken and they have been. If they see Corbyn's likely defeat as an opportunity to go back to what they were doing, we're in dire fucking trouble. I'd hope for compromise. Raise minimum wage, but maybe to about £8 with aspiration for more. Ban imposition of zero hour contracts. Re-nationalise some but not all services. Reduce tuition fees to 2008 levels. Etc. Edited June 7, 2017 by Renton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5186 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Just now, Renton said: I'd hope for compromise. Raise minimum wage, but maybe to about £8 with aspiration die more. Ban imposition of zero hour contracts. Re-nationalise some but not all services. Etc. All sounds fine to me, but it's about the bigger picture as well. We need to be moving towards something, and that something has to be underpinned by the idea of 'a better tomorrow'. But in effect, what you're saying here is that you support a lot of what he says. Do you think any of it would have been on the table without Corbyn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21364 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, Rayvin said: All sounds fine to me, but it's about the bigger picture as well. We need to be moving towards something, and that something has to be underpinned by the idea of 'a better tomorrow'. But in effect, what you're saying here is that you support a lot of what he says. Do you think any of it would have been on the table without Corbyn? It's hard to say. I'd like to have thought Burnham would be anti-austerity after the Miliband disaster, and Owen too as he would have known there was an appetite for it. The problem always is though you have to get buy in from middle England and handle our rancid press. NJS dismisses Blair as being no better than the Tories, but he felt he had to play the game. Yes, he was probably too cautious in retrospect but there simply isn't an appetite for socialism in this country post Thatcher. Blair knew this but "the third way" was a compromise that worked for most people imo. Hence his landslide victiries, despite Iraq. Having knackers in opposition like Hague, IDS and Howard helped of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5186 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Just now, Renton said: It's hard to say. I'd like to have thought Burnham would be anti-austerity after the Miliband disaster, and Owen too as he would have known there was an appetite for it. The problem always is though you have to get buy in from middle England and handle our rancid press. NJS dismisses Blair as being no better than the Tories, but he felt he had to play the game. Yes, he was probably too cautious in retrospect but there simply isn't an appetite for socialism in this country post Thatcher. Blair knew this but "the third way" was a compromise that worked for most people imo. Hence his landslide victiries, despite Iraq. Having knackers in opposition like Hague, IDS and Howard helped of course. I think Blair's policies worked because at that point, the ideology was still functional. I believed in Blair at the time, things seemed to be working well and there was no reason to think it was all going to go to the wall. It did though, and that's because we didn't appreciate how flawed the ideology was. Not even his ideology I'll stress, and I'm not blaming him for it as such - just pointing out that with the benefit of hindsight, you can now see where the problems have come from. As you say, there was no appetite for socialism. Blair was the best we could have gotten, and did a good job under the circumstances. But the world has changed and the rulebook he wrote no longer applies. Owen Smith might well have been a better option than Corbyn, but there was no chance that he was going to get in because the PLP had made clear it was going to directly challenge the membership. For people who supposedly know how to 'play the game' that was a fucking stupid decision. Corbyn ended up with a bigger mandate than the one he started out with. Burnham, maybe. He was the next best option. But something extreme and radical was needed IMO - apparently other people felt the same way. Corbyn pushed us a long way left, and we have space and room to manoeuvre again now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21823 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 who is there to bridge the gap between the hard left in the membership and the largely centrist PLP though? no obvious candidates spring to mind. i wouldn't mind if corbyn stopped on for a year or two until the right leader came along to replace him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4702 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 What's Corbyns views on first past the post? Can a government change it or would it have to go to a referendum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5186 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said: who is there to bridge the gap between the hard left in the membership and the largely centrist PLP though? no obvious candidates spring to mind. i wouldn't mind if corbyn stopped on for a year or two until the right leader came along to replace him Not sure we're hard left tbf. It's not like anyone is looking to bring back Communism. We're just left. But yes, I see the issue. I'm hoping Starmer can be persuaded to take up with a number of the policy positions. Maybe some of the centrists can be persuaded if they were only centrist for pragmatic reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5186 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said: What's Corbyns views on first past the post? Can a government change it or would it have to go to a referendum? I can't remember, but ideally it's something I'd like to see changed. I'm pretty sure he could change it without a referendum though. Might get political blowback of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30297 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Just now, Rayvin said: Not sure we're hard left tbf. It's not like anyone is looking to bring back Communism. We're just left. Well, no one apart from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5186 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 Just now, ewerk said: Well, no one apart from you. I believe in social liberalism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21364 Posted June 7, 2017 Share Posted June 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, Christmas Tree said: What's Corbyns views on first past the post? Can a government change it or would it have to go to a referendum? Corbyn won't know what his position on FPTP is. We had a referendum on AV a few years back. Not only was it annihilated, most people can't even remember it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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