2017 GE 1

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3887]

It's going to be a fucking Tory landslide.

[Andrew 4747]

No avatar at all, I like it.

[Meenzer 15518]

[Happy Face 29]

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629268

 

Jezza wants a "brexit that works for all"

 

Fuck it then, Lib dems it is.

[Andrew 4747]

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629268

 

Jezza wants a brexit that works for all.

 

Fuck it then, Lib dems it is.

 

Ugh Our last lib dem MP campaigned mostly to the younger vote before delivering one of the most conservative parliamentary voting records I've ever seen, an utter betrayal of the people he targetted for votes. Also, on a personal level, hes a total wanker.

 

If its him again then theres not a chance I'm voting for him, labour are typically good for the area but if they can't take any power and given the piss poor effort for the referendum I don't think I'll be looking to them either.

 

Genuinely don't know who I will vote for here, I've usually had at least an idea.

[adios 717]

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629268

 

Jezza wants a "brexit that works for all"

 

Fuck it then, Lib dems it is.

Ugh; fuck off.

 

 

 

 

And Corbyn can do one too.

[The Fish 10849]

I'm voting for Kim Jong-un

[Rayvin 5217]

Ugh Our last lib dem MP campaigned mostly to the younger vote before delivering one of the most conservative parliamentary voting records I've ever seen, an utter betrayal of the people he targetted for votes. Also, on a personal level, hes a total wanker.

 

If its him again then theres not a chance I'm voting for him, labour are typically good for the area but if they can't take any power and given the piss poor effort for the referendum I don't think I'll be looking to them either.

 

Genuinely don't know who I will vote for here, I've usually had at least an idea.

 

Pick whichever one is most likely to win between Libs and Labour if how we leave the EU is a priority to you, vote Green if you're just sick of all of them, I'd say.

 

I'm going to vote Labour if they're able to make clear that they're going for a inbetweeny Brexit. If they faff around and avoid saying anything of substance, I'll go Lib Dem.

[Rayvin 5217]

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629268

 

Jezza wants a "brexit that works for all"

 

Fuck it then, Lib dems it is.

 

That speech is horrific.

 

EDIT - although he's right about the austerity narrative, that is indeed why they lost last time.

Edited April 18, 2017 by Rayvin

[Happy Face 29]

I've normally had some patience for him and appreciate the bind he's in with the labour voters that went with Brexit.

 

But he's not going to move the debate from Brexit to the NHS or the economy, no matter how hard he tries.  He's trying to win the 2010 or 2015 election but it's 2017.  It's been called because of Brexit, to win a mandate for hard brexit and he HAS to come out in fundamental opposition to the government on that issue to have any hope whatsoever.

 

It's not hard either.  He was limp but he campaigned for remain.  It wouldn't be a turnaround to run full throatedly on taking the opportunity to re-think the mistake that was made.  Throw himself full bodied behind a camaign that promises to withdraw from article 50 and promises to remain, or have a commons vote, or even another referendum now that the implications are clearer and the lies about £350m for the NHS are exposed.

[adios 717]

I've normally had some patience for him and appreciate the bind he's in with the labour voters that went with Brexit.

 

But he's not going to move the debate from Brexit to the NHS or the economy, no matter how hard he tries.  He's trying to win the 2010 or 2015 election but it's 2017.  It's been called because of Brexit, to win a mandate for hard brexit and he HAS to come out in fundamental opposition to the government on that issue to have any hope whatsoever.

 

It's not hard either.  He was limp but he campaigned for remain.  It wouldn't be a turnaround to run full throatedly on taking the opportunity to re-think the mistake that was made.  Throw himself full bodied behind a camaign that promises to withdraw from article 50 and promises to remain, or have a commons vote, or even another referendum now that the implications are clearer and the lies about £350m for the NHS are exposed.

Aye, I don't understand his strategy for accepting the election if he's not doing this.

 

I can't buy that he and his advisors are this thick, so I'm missing something.

[Happy Face 29]

Looks like the Lib dems are lining up for brexit of some sort too.  Promising only that they will be campaigning against "hard" brexit.

 

http://www.libdems.org.uk/general-election-2017-tim-faarron

 

and the Greens opposing an "extreme" brexit

 

https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2017/04/18/green-party-we-will-make-history-in-bristol-west/

 

Looks like their pollsters aren't letting any of them go against the will of the people, and we'll only get to vote for the least brexitty Brexit.

[Rayvin 5217]

Aye, I don't understand his strategy for accepting the election if he's not doing this.

 

I can't buy that he and his advisors are this thick, so I'm missing something.

 

I think the best we can hope for is that they have a good rethink over the next few days. That speech was all soundbites, it sounds as though it's caught them cold.

[TheGingerQuiff 2412]

Lib dems stance all along has been to let people vote on the terms of a brexit deal. They've always been careful to not explicitly go against the vote

[Rayvin 5217]

Looks like the Lib dems are lining up for brexit of some sort too.  Promising only that they will be campaigning against "hard" brexit.

 

http://www.libdems.org.uk/general-election-2017-tim-faarron

 

and the Greens opposing an "extreme" brexit

 

https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2017/04/18/green-party-we-will-make-history-in-bristol-west/

 

Looks like their pollsters aren't letting any of them go against the will of the people, and we'll only get to vote for the least brexitty Brexit.

 

Which is fine because actually, that's what it'll take to win it. Soft Brexit allows for the will of the people nonsense to be maintained while also ensuring that basically nothing changes - which is what we want. Surely 52% of the country didn't vote for cutting ALL ties with Europe, and if no party is going to go for a reversal, the Remainers will go for the least bad option.

[Happy Face 29]

Soft = limp dick.  No-one will vote for that.  Jezza will have to die his hair black, draw on some eyebrows and start bullying may about HARD remain.

[Rayvin 5217]

Fine, they can rebrand it. Call it the 'People's Brexit' or something. They could demonstrate that those who want Hard Brexit are rich landowners in the country who will either benefit or will be fine with it as they're rich enough to cope. Other the fuck out of the hard Brexiters.

[Ayatollah Hermione 13856]

Fine, they can rebrand it. Call it the 'People's Brexit' or something. They could demonstrate that those who want Hard Brexit are rich landowners in the country who will either benefit or will be fine with it as they're rich enough to cope. Other the fuck out of the hard Brexiters.

 

[Rayvin 5217]

 

If we got him involved, on stage with Corbyn, Labour would be unstoppable.

[rogerbarton 24]

Do you think Labour could credibly come out and say the single market would be their red line in Brexit negotiations? That way they're not 'betraying the will of the people' TM but are veering towards a very soft Brexit.

 

They would leave themselves open to the obvious suggestion that we wouldn't get control on immigration that way, but could it be worth the gamble? I'm not sure, because it looks like they're draining working-class support anyway and this would be a position sure to lose votes in middle England and even the north.

 

Would genuinely be interested to know what people think Labour's Brexit position should be.

[Dr Gloom 21912]

so has parky got this entirely wrong then? i'm amazed

[Rayvin 5217]

Do you think Labour could credibly come out and say the single market would be their red line in Brexit negotiations? That way they're not 'betraying the will of the people' TM but are veering towards a very soft Brexit.

 

They would leave themselves open to the obvious suggestion that we wouldn't get control on immigration that way, but could it be worth the gamble? I'm not sure, because it looks like they're draining working-class support anyway and this would be a position sure to lose votes in middle England and even the north.

 

Would genuinely be interested to know what people think Labour's Brexit position should be.

 

I think it should be exactly what you've set out - They've already lost the people prepared to let immigration become an issue as they've maintained their view that immigration is positive for the country as a whole throughout all of this, so they have little further to lose there.

 

Corbyn will have some traction with the working class, those intelligent enough to actually listen to what he's saying. But that said, they may be an absolute write off, and we'll have to hope that they aren't motivated to turn out in the same numbers as they did for the referendum.

 

Things that might be relevant:

 

1 - Will the working class swallow their tribalism and vote Tory?

2 - Will the north?

3 - Will UKIP be able to mount a viable campaign? They didn't seem pleased by this announcement.

4 - Can Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP find common ground?

 

Ideally, I would want all resources for each party to be thrown into the seats they can take off the Tories rather than each other. The Lib Dems attack on the MIddle England front and Labour try to consolidate what they can in the North and urban centres. SNP just repeat what they've managed in Scotland.

[Dr Gloom 21912]

That speech is horrific.

 

EDIT - although he's right about the austerity narrative, that is indeed why they lost last time.

 

he barely mentioned brexit. he is beyond useless. where the fuck is the opposition?

[rogerbarton 24]

I think it should be exactly what you've set out - They've already lost the people prepared to let immigration become an issue as they've maintained their view that immigration is positive for the country as a whole throughout all of this, so they have little further to lose there.

 

Corbyn will have some traction with the working class, those intelligent enough to actually listen to what he's saying. But that said, they may be an absolute write off, and we'll have to hope that they aren't motivated to turn out in the same numbers as they did for the referendum.

 

Things that might be relevant:

 

1 - Will the working class swallow their tribalism and vote Tory?

2 - Will the north?

3 - Will UKIP be able to mount a viable campaign? They didn't seem pleased by this announcement.

4 - Can Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP find common ground?

 

Ideally, I would want all resources for each party to be thrown into the seats they can take off the Tories rather than each other. The Lib Dems attack on the MIddle England front and Labour try to consolidate what they can in the North and urban centres. SNP just repeat what they've managed in Scotland.

Would agree with a lot of this. I think what might also be interesting is there was some evidence Labour --> UKIP switching in the last election aided the Tories in Middle England. If UKIP are suddenly a much less viable option for working-class voters, does that actually aid Labour?

 

My source for this is actually myself but here's what I wrote about it in the wake of the 2015 GE:

 

"I charted turnout and vote distribution in the 39 closest English marginals (where Labour and the Tories were within 5 percentage points of one another).

 

Labour won 19, the Tories 20. These seats were all broadly similar in terms of turnout, rise in the Green vote, fall in the Lib Dem vote and increase in Conservative vote share (3.2% average in seats they lost and 3.3% average in seats they won).

 

So where did the difference lie? Labour’s vote share increased by an average 5.6% in seats they won, compared to 2.2% in the seats they lost. UKIP, meanwhile, polled an average 9.5% in seats won by the Conservatives, compared to 13.9% in those won by Labour.

 

This suggests to me that, in some of these key marginals where there was a popular movement to UKIP, the Kippers swept up undecided voters that polling had suggested would swing the seat Labour’s way. It did not seem to affect the Conservatives anywhere near as adversely in the seats that mattered. The combination of this with voters’ fear about the SNP combined to make for a deadly blue cocktail. In summary – the worst combination of two nationalisms."

[Rayvin 5217]

Aye, that makes sense about UKIP. 

 

Realistically, I don't believe that 52% of the country wanted out of Europe. I do think that 52% of the country were incredibly pissed off. UKIP have always been a protest party, Brexit was a protest movement... but the establishment own it firmly now. Just can't see the same numbers turning up for it. But the remainers will, probably to a man. Last chance to avert catastrophe.