Vladimir Putin and Russia

[Tom 14011]

“Nuclear war anxiety? Please take a seat with all my other anxieties…yeh actually take that golden throne” 

[Monkeys Fist 42459]

50 minutes ago, Tom said:

“Nuclear war anxiety? Please take a seat with all my other anxieties…yeh actually take that golden throne” 

If their actual nuclear capabilities are in part with their conventional army, I think we might be ok. 
 

More likely to fry themselves than us, if they even have any that work. 

[spongebob toonpants 3997]

The war drums are beating.

 

The US are talking about regime change.

The UK are saying you can use UK weapons to attack Russian targets

 

It's Putins fault but the West is leaving him nowhere to go.

[Toonpack 9433]

Repeat after me "there will NOT be a nuclear war"

 

China would cut him adrift if he used even a tactical nuke, no-one wins a nuclear war and the Chinese still have their dreams of world domination in the decades to come.

[Toonpack 9433]

2 hours ago, Rayvin said:

I feel like it's moving in that direction too - what I can't for the life of me figure out is why. If this is the great mistake that we generally consider it to be, on Putin's end, why would he double down on it. He can't honestly imagine he can take the entire West in a conventional fight so part of me starts wondering if he really does just want an excuse to nuke somebody.

 

If he invades another European nation, I don't see what choice we have.

 

He'll be being told they are winning, bet he doesn't even know the full scale of losses. NATO forces would eat them alive, they've been shown to be a paper tiger by NATO trained troops using crap Russian kit.

[Isegrim 9780]

1 hour ago, Toonpack said:

 

He'll be being told they are winning, bet he doesn't even know the full scale of losses. NATO forces would eat them alive, they've been shown to be a paper tiger by NATO trained troops using crap Russian kit.

I am not sure that the whole narrative of him getting insufficient reports about the progress of the war do have any base. There is obviously a lot of propaganda being spilled out but he will know from his direct investigation with other nations that there are different narratives about what is happening.

 

 I do not doubt that the war got staeted on the wrong assumption of a Blitzkrieg based on optimistic briefings about the easiness of running over Ukraine. But there is no way that Russia will admit that and cave in until it will really threaten the integrity of the Russian state. They got away with a lot of posturing in the past by just denying any wrongdoing. They will keep this war alive as long as possible in the hope that the west will cave in again. Cutting some nations of the gas supply will only be the start, openly using banned weapons against Ukraine might be the next step.

But I don’t think they are really prepared to go into a phase of war that will see them directly under threat.

[Toonpack 9433]

7 minutes ago, Isegrim said:

I am not sure that the whole narrative of him getting insufficient reports about the progress of the war do have any base. There is obviously a lot of propaganda being spilled out but he will know from his direct investigation with other nations that there are different narratives about what is happening.

 

 I do not doubt that the war got staeted on the wrong assumption of a Blitzkrieg based on optimistic briefings about the easiness of running over Ukraine. But there is no way that Russia will admit that and cave in until it will really threaten the integrity of the Russian state. They got away with a lot of posturing in the past by just denying any wrongdoing. They will keep this war alive as long as possible in the hope that the west will cave in again. Cutting some nations of the gas supply will only be the start, openly using banned weapons against Ukraine might be the next step.

But I don’t think they are really prepared to go into a phase of war that will see them directly under threat.

If NATO did get involved I doubt any action would be pursued on the ground in Russia, but they’d be kicked out of Ukraine PDQ

[Kid Dynamite 7031]

Putin looks like he's dying tbh. Fingers crossed 

[ohhh_yeah 2967]

 

Turned off the gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria today.

 

[Howmanheyman 33246]

10 minutes ago, ohhh_yeah said:

 

Turned off the gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria today.

 

Did he turn back and double check he'd actually turned it off five minutes after going home?

[Gemmill 44901]

The Navalny doc on iplayer is pretty mental. Ridiculous bloke. 

[ohhh_yeah 2967]

 

 

[Rayvin 5223]

Good piece, basically arguing that we have to either go to war, or cede Ukraine - since that's where it's going to end up anyway:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/27/ukraine-war-end-putin-russia-talks

[spongebob toonpants 3997]

10 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Good piece, basically arguing that we have to either go to war, or cede Ukraine - since that's where it's going to end up anyway:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/27/ukraine-war-end-putin-russia-talks

That's exactly my stance, unfortunately I think the West or specifically the US/UK is too invested to take the realpolitik option. The rest of Europe maybe able to take the lead I hope so. 

 

I hesitated to post this pic, but I think ghere is some truth to it

 

[Rayvin 5223]

I think you have a lot of valid points in general about the US being belligerent and I would normally be one that side of the aisle too, but I cannot see how this is anything other than squarely on Putin. This may well be part of a wider US geopolitical issue, but it is also very clearly a matter of Ukraine's right to exist. It is very much also their war - primarily their war, in fact. They are being conquered by an imperialist power. Whether the US is a total shitshow is an entirely separate point on this matter IMO because Putin launched this all off his own bat to "solve the Ukraine question for future generations of Russians" as he said himself.

 

I would also say that the article I linked puts forward two options - obviously the author prefers that we surrender to the psychotic bully (and I do get why because lives saved and so on are a factor. How many lives is national autonomy, your nation, you culture, worth?) But the other side is we become actively involved. Which I would support.

 

I don't know what sort of hellish world we would be living in if we just let Putin have Ukraine. And then when he takes something else, then what? Let that happen. Etc. If Putin is prepared to engage in wars of aggression like this, we've already lost the battle on solving things peacefully. It's him who should be desperately looking for an off ramp, not us who should be trying to find him one.

[Tom 14011]

I’m not sure anyone wants the kind of war Russia are spoiling for. It’s hard to tell if their rhetoric is genuine or propaganda for the ears at home but it’s none the less terrifying. 
 

Some of the weapons involved are absolutely insane doomsday devices. There’d be nothing left at all.

[spongebob toonpants 3997]

11 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

I think you have a lot of valid points in general about the US being belligerent and I would normally be one that side of the aisle too, but I cannot see how this is anything other than squarely on Putin. This may well be part of a wider US geopolitical issue, but it is also very clearly a matter of Ukraine's right to exist. It is very much also their war - primarily their war, in fact. They are being conquered by an imperialist power. Whether the US is a total shitshow is an entirely separate point on this matter IMO because Putin launched this all off his own bat to "solve the Ukraine question for future generations of Russians" as he said himself.

 

I would also say that the article I linked puts forward two options - obviously the author prefers that we surrender to the psychotic bully (and I do get why because lives saved and so on are a factor. How many lives is national autonomy, your nation, you culture, worth?) But the other side is we become actively involved. Which I would support.

 

I don't know what sort of hellish world we would be living in if we just let Putin have Ukraine. And then when he takes something else, then what? Let that happen. Etc. If Putin is prepared to engage in wars of aggression like this, we've already lost the battle on solving things peacefully. It's him who should be desperately looking for an off ramp, not us who should be trying to find him one.

My overwhelming desire is for the war and the killing and the death to stop. Escalating the situation is the worst outcome. Unfortunately neither side appear to want this yet

I hope Putin drops dead today to be frank, but it wouldn't guarantee  what followed would be any better

There are no good solutions, but at some point there has to be a negotiated peace and I would like to get there with as little death as possible

[PaddockLad 17281]

42 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Good piece, basically arguing that we have to either go to war, or cede Ukraine - since that's where it's going to end up anyway:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/27/ukraine-war-end-putin-russia-talks

I don’t usually say “I told you so” but I said that on here about 3 hours after the first tank rolled across the border. Putin needs to be physically opposed by NATO. Anything other than defeat emboldens him, his shitty gangster state, those who may sit in his chair next and any other fuckers watching on,  sticking  their fingers in the air to see which way the wind is blowing  eg China. Yes, nuclear war is a possibility. But mutually assured destruction is either a thing or it’s not. It horrifies me that we may have to try it out but this is indeed very likely the start of WW3 and western leaders look like they’ve come up with err “a plan”, the tone from the US has changed this week and client journos  are being instructed to spread the word.  
 

Western civilisation has had a good run but all empires crumble…. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by PaddockLad

[Rayvin 5223]

4 minutes ago, spongebob toonpants said:

My overwhelming desire is for the war and the killing and the death to stop. Escalating the situation is the worst outcome. Unfortunately neither side appear to want this yet

I hope Putin drops dead today to be frank, but it wouldn't guarantee  what followed would be any better

There are no good solutions, but at some point there has to be a negotiated peace and I would like to get there with as little death as possible

 

Likewise - but for instance, we could get there right this moment if we all agreed to give Putin full dominion over the entire Western world. Is that a price worth paying for peace? What I'm saying is that either we accept that we're prepared to give him peace no matter the cost, or we have to acknowledge that there are red lines. The problem we seem to have is that no one is very certain on what those red lines are. I think we've been caught entirely unaware with this move tbh.

[Rayvin 5223]

1 minute ago, PaddockLad said:

I don’t usually say “I told you so” but I said that on here about 3 hours after the first tank rolled across the border. Putin needs to be physically opposed by NATO. Anything other than defeat emboldens him, his shitty gangster state, those who may sit in his chair next and any other fuckers watching on,  sticking  their fingers in the air to see which way the wind is blowing  eg China. Yes, nuclear war is a possibility. But mutually assured destruction is either a thing or it’s not. It horrifies me that we may have to try it out but this is indeed very likely the start of WW3 and western leaders look like they’ve come up with err “a plan”, the tone from the US has changed this week and client journos  are being instructed to spread the word.  
 

Western civilisation has had a good run but all empires crumble…. 

 

I agreed with this straight from the off as well fwiw. I still agree now.

[PaddockLad 17281]

11 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

I agreed with this straight from the off as well fwiw. I still agree now.

Yeah, we’re a pair of Bush/ Blairite interventionist warmongers  

[spongebob toonpants 3997]

16 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

What I'm saying is that either we accept that we're prepared to give him peace no matter the cost, or we have to acknowledge that there are red lines. The problem we seem to have is that no one is very certain on what those red lines are. 

Well I think the red line already exists and that is attacking a NATO country. We aren't there yet and if stopping us getting to WW3 and/or MAD then yes I think we should be willing to sit down and allow him some wins in Ukraine, as disgusting a situation as I readily admit that is

[Rayvin 5223]

5 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

Yeah, we’re a pair of Bush/ Blairite interventionist warmongers  

 

I do see the other side of it tbf, but I think that analysis hinges on the idea that Russia are just reacting to the US. I don't think they are, and they've said as much themselves. There is definitely a wider ambition of restoring the former Russian empire, and while that ambition remains, I just don't see how we can be at peace without just signing away the freedoms of millions.

[scoobos 298]

Can someone assasinate Liz Truss asap please - she's a fucking danger. I'm really as frightened of her being in this position as I am the situation escalating. 

These stupid fuckers will use anything to try and look "strong" and doing something. Kicking Russia out of Ukraine by Ukrainians fine - but lets not start making PUBLIC fucking declarations that we wont rest until they are kicked out of Crimea and then some. Or that we have "our brave men and women deep under the sea <in nuclear submarines> ready to defend our country"  , whilst simultaneously sabre rattling harder than anyone and putting ourselves in the fucking frame. Ben Wallace's statement is sure to be subtitled, edited and used to make Russians think we're mobilised to Nuke them. FFS - It's so fucking transparent that this is just "Save Big Dog" or whatever bollox.

Meanwhile - just how much PUBLIC money is again going into the FUCKING PRIVATE SECTOR - these arms are NOT free and its more public money going to companies that Tory donors have interests in. Two months ago we couldn't afford to protect our own nation against Covid anymore. Now as 1500 people die OF Covid in the last 7 recorded days - it's fucking tragic, BAE Systems should be a nationalised industry. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by scoobos

[Rayvin 5223]

3 minutes ago, scoobos said:

Can someone assasinate Liz Truss asap please - she's a fucking danger. I'm really as frightened of her being in this position as I am the situation escalating. 

These stupid fuckers will use anything to try and look "strong" and doing something. Kicking Russia out of Ukraine by Ukrainians fine - but lets not start making PUBLIC fucking declarations that we wont rest until they are kicked out of Crimea and then some. Or that we have "our brave men and women deep under the sea <in nuclear submarines> ready to defend our country"  , whilst simultaneously sabre rattling harder than anyone and putting ourselves in the fucking frame. FFS 

Meanwhile - just how much PUBLIC money is again going into the FUCKING PRIVATE SECTOR - these arms are NOT free and its more public money going to companies that Tory donors have interests in. Two months ago we couldn't afford to protect our own nation against Covid anymore. Now as 1500 people die OF Covid in the last 7 recorded days - it's fucking tragic, BAE Systems should be a nationalised industry. 

 

I think Russia is probably sabre rattling harder than anyone at the moment, we're getting fresh warnings of nuclear Armageddon every morning from their side. "Our patience is running out, and you should know there will be consequences" was this morning's message. If we don't respond, do we not just looked cowed and pliant?

 

I think Crimea we have to at least 'appear' to be consistent about because it was an illegal conquest and the idea that such things can be ignored imperils the entire international legal framework. I daresay when push comes to shove, it will be ignored though.

 

Agree on the last point but better our money than our lives. Ukraine is arguably sacrificing for all of us.