spongebob toonpants 3997 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Renton said: Well, we can't stop the Russian propaganda but it's not like North Korea, they can't stop tech savvy people knowing the truth. I think Putin has already lost. Whatever the outcome of the war, and I actually think he will lose that anyway in any meaningful sense. What do you think he's going to win? Ukraine is a tragedy, but its the people of the country who are standing up to this invasion, it's their choice. I salute them all and can only wonder if I would do the same for my country. I hope yes. Accepting a puppet regime would be a terrible outcome for them imo. This way they have a chance of freedom. I hope when this is over (putin is gone), the west can help rebuild their country and they can become fully integrated with the EU. That's worth fighting for. Incidentally, I've just started watching Winter on Fire on Netflix about the roots of this conflict. I was completely ignorant as all this passed me by at the time. I dont think he is going to win, but i dont see how he accepts losing What does a Putin loss look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spongebob toonpants 3997 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, ewerk said: The purpose of the sanctions is to hit those around Putin. The effects on the general population are an unfortunate byproduct. The ideal ending is that Putin ends up with an ice pick in his head. Who is likely to wield the icepick, and who do you think follows him into power? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toonpack 9434 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, spongebob toonpants said: Who is likely to wield the icepick, and who do you think follows him into power? Looking at his seating plans, it'll be fucking difficult for anyone to smuggle in an icepick with a 20ft handle !!! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21628 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, spongebob toonpants said: I dont think he is going to win, but i dont see how he accepts losing What does a Putin loss look like? I don't know, because his situation is unprecedented. I suspect probably a coup after a popular uprising, even a civil war in Russia. What I do know is nearly all dictators come to gruesome ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spongebob toonpants 3997 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Just now, Renton said: I don't know, because his situation is unprecedented. I suspect probably a coup after a popular uprising, even a civil war in Russia. What I do know is nearly all dictators come to gruesome ends. Personally I think the West should be doing everything we can to avoid nuclear war, and a desperate Putin with his finger on the nuclear button terrifies me. I've got no good answers by the way, I don't think there are any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toonpack 9434 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Renton said: I don't know, because his situation is unprecedented. I suspect probably a coup after a popular uprising, even a civil war in Russia. What I do know is nearly all dictators come to gruesome ends. My concern is, as things deteriorate at home, he'll look to engineer incidents/escalations to make the west appear the bad guy and garner/change public support in Russia. Am coming round to thinking that's all but inevitable, we should continue to pour defensive weaponry into Ukraine for now, but we should be watching for bullshit escalations and we should be looking to plan and just cut to the chase at that point, he'll just push and push until it happens anyway (and at that point it'll be on his terms). Even if this degenerates into a full on NATO/Russia shooting war, you don't take that war into Russia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toonpack 9434 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, spongebob toonpants said: Personally I think the West should be doing everything we can to avoid nuclear war, and a desperate Putin with his finger on the nuclear button terrifies me. I've got no good answers by the way, I don't think there are any We already do everything to avoid nuclear war, it's called MAD. There will not be a nuclear war of annihilation, the "button" is simply symbolic, there's a massive set of protocols and a chain of command between the so called button and any launch. Wouldn't put it past him to use a tactical (battlefield) nuke in Ukraine and blame the west or Ukraine mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4725 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 I think (hope) that Putin and those that keep him in power, had no idea the sanctions would be as severe. They probably factored in the usual tut tutting and a few diplomats expelled. No way they are going to let one man absolutely fuck the country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21628 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Toonpack said: My concern is, as things deteriorate at home, he'll look to engineer incidents/escalations to make the west appear the bad guy and garner/change public support in Russia. Am coming round to thinking that's all but inevitable, we should continue to pour defensive weaponry into Ukraine for now, but we should be watching for bullshit escalations and we should be looking to plan and just cut to the chase at that point, he'll just push and push until it happens anyway (and at that point it'll be on his terms). Even if this degenerates into a full on NATO/Russia shooting war, you don't take that war into Russia. It's funny how my thought processes have changed over time. As a kid, I was emphatically against nuclear weapons, supported unilateral disarmament etc. When I got older, it was my opinion that these same weapons, through MAD, were the only thing stopping a third world war with the USSR, and therefore were a good thing. Now with Putin and Russia in the 21st century, it appears to me that Russian conventional forces are full of piss and wind and NATO would annihilate the Russian federation in a square go due to our technological superiority. But we can't do this because of the threat of nuclear war. I think on balance the West are doing all the right things presently (other than our abysmal failure on housing refugees). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21628 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Toonpack said: Wouldn't put it past him to use a tactical (battlefield) nuke in Ukraine and blame the west or Ukraine mind. This is definitely a concern like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaddockLad 17281 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Toonpack said: My concern is, as things deteriorate at home, he'll look to engineer incidents/escalations to make the west appear the bad guy and garner/change public support in Russia. Am coming round to thinking that's all but inevitable, we should continue to pour defensive weaponry into Ukraine for now, but we should be watching for bullshit escalations and we should be looking to plan and just cut to the chase at that point, he'll just push and push until it happens anyway (and at that point it'll be on his terms). Even if this degenerates into a full on NATO/Russia shooting war, you don't take that war into Russia. I've thought this from the start... confrontation is inevitable. European NATO may have to go it alone to begin with somehow, which will hopefully drag the yanks in again. Unless somehow Putins inner circle put a few rounds in his evil fuckin skull... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spongebob toonpants 3997 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Toonpack said: We already do everything to avoid nuclear war, it's called MAD. There will not be a nuclear war of annihilation, the "button" is simply symbolic, there's a massive set of protocols and a chain of command between the so called button and any launch. Wouldn't put it past him to use a tactical (battlefield) nuke in Ukraine and blame the west or Ukraine mind. I don't know if there is anyone who would be able to stop him, and lets be honest once a nuke goes off all bets are off. Either we respond in kind and it all goes off, or we don't and there's nothing to stop him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21628 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, spongebob toonpants said: I don't know if there is anyone who would be able to stop him, and lets be honest once a nuke goes off all bets are off. Either we respond in kind and it all goes off, or we don't and there's nothing to stop him I think there are plenty of people that can stop him launching ICBMs. A tactical nuke is of more concern. I haven't got a clue what happens in that situation, the risk of escalation to outright nuclear war would be huge, but why would Putin want that? He has 6 kids. I think you're catastrophising a bit here and should adopt my new zen-line persona. Ommmmmmm. Edited March 9, 2022 by Renton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spongebob toonpants 3997 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, PaddockLad said: I've thought this from the start... confrontation is inevitable. European NATO may have to go it alone to begin with somehow, which will hopefully drag the yanks in again. Unless somehow Putins inner circle put a few rounds in his evil fuckin skull... There's no such thing as European NATO going it alone, the whole point of NATO is one in all in, if that breaks Putin has already won. On top of that NATO has an overwhelming advantage in conventional warfare, Russia would immediately have only one retaliatory option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spongebob toonpants 3997 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Renton said: I think you're catastrophising a bit here and should adopt my new zen-line persona. Ommmmmmm. You know you've gone too far when Rents is telling me to calm down And relax..... Fuck all I can do about it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30620 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 53 minutes ago, spongebob toonpants said: Who is likely to wield the icepick, and who do you think follows him into power? It would be someone in a very similar mould to Putin. The thing though is that they would have learned their limitations. Long term though this isn't great for Russia. Even if Putin dies/withdraws today then Europe has hopefully learned their lesson about relying on Russia for their energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaddockLad 17281 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, spongebob toonpants said: There's no such thing as European NATO going it alone, the whole point of NATO is one in all in, if that breaks Putin has already won. On top of that NATO has an overwhelming advantage in conventional warfare, Russia would immediately have only one retaliatory option Does he want to destroy his own country as well? No one knows obviously so it's the flip of a coin. One thing is for sure, if we do nothing and he ends up taking as much of Ukraine as he can and levels the rest of it he will hold the whip hand over the entire continent of Europe and will be emboldened to carry on. That will be on us. Its a massive risk but I think nuclear war has been inevitable for a very long time. We encouraged Ukraine to give their nukes up saying we would defend them and beginning with Crimea we have utterly failed to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21628 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, PaddockLad said: Does he want to destroy his own country as well? No one knows obviously so it's the flip of a coin. One thing is for sure, if we do nothing and he ends up taking as much of Ukraine as he can and levels the rest of it he will hold the whip hand over the entire continent of Europe and will be emboldened to carry on. That will be on us. Its a massive risk but I think nuclear war has been inevitable for a very long time. We encouraged Ukraine to give their nukes up saying we would defend them and beginning with Crimea we have utterly failed to do so. This is nonsense though. The Russian economy will be destroyed, its only months away from total bankruptcy as it is. His weapons are obsolete against NATO's. How will he have the whip hand in Europe? He can't even take Ukraine man. Nuclear war is not inevitable, that's a fairly hysterical over-reaction, and that's coming from me. Ommmmm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spongebob toonpants 3997 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, PaddockLad said: Does he want to destroy his own country as well? No one knows obviously so it's the flip of a coin. One thing is for sure, if we do nothing and he ends up taking as much of Ukraine as he can and levels the rest of it he will hold the whip hand over the entire continent of Europe and will be emboldened to carry on. That will be on us. Its a massive risk but I think nuclear war has been inevitable for a very long time. We encouraged Ukraine to give their nukes up saying we would defend them and beginning with Crimea we have utterly failed to do so. Not sure I completely agree. I think the redline has always been attacking a NATO country, and thats why Putin has gone through with this invasion. I also think he has probably been surprised by the resistance of Ukraine, the uselessness of his groundforce and the swiftness and severity of sanctions. So in a way I think it make him less likely to try and expand further 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken 119 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Poland wanted to send all their Migs to Germany for Ukrainee pilots to fly them back and use in their air defence. The US said no. Its clear that NATO will not cross the line for Russia to make an excuse to expand the theatre of war. Russia are so much weaker than what I thought they were. I think the whole world now see it. Yes, they will break the fortification of Ukraine's major cities but they won't hold them. Putin has fucked himself up here. There is no conclusion to this that can realistically be predicted here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21628 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Fuck me, I never thought I would agree with a Ken post. Spot on there cobber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken 119 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Renton said: Fuck me, I never thought I would agree with a Ken post. Spot on there cobber. Well you have come to a sense of reasoning rather than hysterics when this kicked off, so yes, our opinions on this have somewhat aligned now. 😛 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spongebob toonpants 3997 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 This is a long, but to my mind interesting and accurate appraisal of a possible endgame. Spoilers does not end in total nuclear distruction https://samf.substack.com/p/giving-peace-a-chance?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30620 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 'Yes, by all means come to the UK, we'd love to have you' 'Great! Where do I apply' 'We're not telling you' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 35095 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Applaud the president on telly, fuck the citizens in reality 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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