Donald Trump

[Meenzer 15111]

10 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Welcome back Wolfy.

 

*Wolfie-Doodle

[Gemmill 42591]

https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-harris-polls/

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

 

Two poll aggregators. The economist one has a prediction model too which has shifted back to giving Harris a 60% chance. 

 

Still dead close, and it's the swing states that count but there's been a marked shift since the debate. 

[Craig 6576]

It'll come down to Pennsylvania IMO. Whoever wins that will be getting the keys to the White House.

[Renton 20414]

2 minutes ago, Craig said:

It'll come down to Pennsylvania IMO. Whoever wins that will be getting the keys to the White House.

 

I think the republicans definitely need it but hope somehow the Democrats can win without it. Such a weird heterogeneous state with a major modern city in Philadelphia, rust belt city in Pittsburgh, surrounded by rural Hill Billies and 18th century Dutch christians. I don't trust it remotely. 

[Craig 6576]

Just now, Renton said:

 

I think the republicans definitely need it but hope somehow the Democrats can win without it. Such a weird heterogeneous state with a major modern city in Philadelphia, rust belt city in Pittsburgh, surrounded by rural Hill Billies and 18th century Dutch christians. I don't trust it remotely. 

 

They 'can' win without it, but I don't think they will. To win without it they'll need to pretty much take every other swing state. 

[Gemmill 42591]

Harris +5 in Pennsylvania and Michigan in two new polls. Obviously it's only one poll in each state, but it's indicative of the wider trend since the debate. 

[Renton 20414]

6 minutes ago, Craig said:

 

They 'can' win without it, but I don't think they will. To win without it they'll need to pretty much take every other swing state. 

 

You're probably right. There are 19 electoral votes in PA which is a swing total of 38. But I think Biden won by a margin of 74 in 2020. I do think it is more important for the Republicans than the Democrats but yes, will likely be crucial to both. 

[Renton 20414]

2 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

Harris +5 in Pennsylvania and Michigan in two new polls. Obviously it's only one poll in each state, but it's indicative of the wider trend since the debate. 

 

But what about the latest assassination attempt? Although tbf, that has dropped off the news agenda pretty quickly, at least internationally speaking. 

[Gemmill 42591]

3 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

But what about the latest assassination attempt? Although tbf, that has dropped off the news agenda pretty quickly, at least internationally speaking. 

 

It did fuck all for him last time, and he doesn't have the photo op this time either. 

 

Anyway, undecided voters aren't gonna go "wow another attempt on Trump. I better vote for him."

 

People are bored of it, I reckon. Can you imagine having to watch the news that day. The endless stories of a rifle barrel poking through a bush, without even the payoff of a shot being fired or a photo of the prick punching the air.

 

That second attempt will change even less than the first one did. 

[Dazzler 8444]

3 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

But what about the latest assassination attempt? Although tbf, that has dropped off the news agenda pretty quickly, at least internationally speaking. 

 

I think there may be a general feeling of "he's fucking staged this one, hasn't he lads?" because it seems to have fallen off a cliff edge. The power of diminishing returns, at some point someone trying to shoot Trump becomes the norm and no-one gives a shit anymore. I just wish it wasn't half blind simpletons attempting it.

[Renton 20414]

I think YOU GUYS are right. I'm broadly optimistic about the  American Election as I just can't see any independent looking at him and thinking "yeah, he's my choice". Also the federal reserve put down interest rates yesterday just in time for a feel good factor pay day. 

[Gemmill 42591]

1 minute ago, Renton said:

I think YOU GUYS are right. I'm broadly optimistic about the  American Election as I just can't see any independent looking at him and thinking "yeah, he's my choice". Also the federal reserve put down interest rates yesterday just in time for a feel good factor pay day. 

 

Do you listen to the News Agents America, Rents? 

 

And if so, do you find them weirdly gushing about Trump? The episode this week about how him ranting about people eating pets, and their claim that this has been a really clever and good move by Trump cos it's focused minds on immigration!? 

 

The polls are shifting markedly in Harris's favour, and yet these two are like "wow check out the big brain on Donald!" 

 

I find their thirst for drama, particularly when it comes to Trump, takes them down some odd paths at times. 

[Craig 6576]

11 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

But what about the latest assassination attempt? Although tbf, that has dropped off the news agenda pretty quickly, at least internationally speaking. 

 

You forget the inverted commas around assassination attempt. 

It was fucking nonsense, man. He lost the debate and was scrabbling for sympathy / attention. Thankfully most seem to have seen right through it. 

Only 7 weeks of this charade left. 

[Alex 34069]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
Last time I looked at that (about a week or two back) it was much closer. Something like 53 / 47 in favour of Harris. Still not exactly home and hosed. It’s fucking insane it’s even close after the way he behaved the last time, especially in relation to his attempt to stay in power after losing the election. 

[Monkeys Fist 41318]

11 hours ago, Dazzler said:

I think there may be a general feeling of "he's fucking staged this one, hasn't he lads?

I think there’s a very strong case that first one was too. 

Fully agree with this too

11 hours ago, Dazzler said:

no-one gives a shit anymore

 

[PaddockLad 16505]

US is fucked whatever happens. People are desperate to be fuckin lied to on a scale that is barely comprehensible