Relegation ?

[trophyshy 7083]

Oof. Now that's horrible.

[The Fish 10857]

you have been optimistic when there's been little reason to be. now we have a fighting chance of survival you're throwing in the towel. new CT tbh

Hey.

 

Fuck you.

 

I was confident we'd stay up last season because we only needed 1 win amongst that terrible Carver run and we would have been safe before the final day.

 

I'm not confident now because even if we win all our games we could still go down. I'm not confident because it's not in our hands. Should Norwich & sunderland be in a position where our results could relegate them, I'd be more confident.

 

Say we win on Saturday and they both lose. We'd be 4pts clear on 36pts

They both then only manage a draw against Everton & Watford respectively; Norwich would be down with 32pts, but sunderland would still survive if they better our result on the final day. And they'll be facing a midtable, cba, on the beach side in Watford and we'd be facing Spurs.

 

Everton and Watford won't do us any favours and we're not guaranteed to beat Aston Villa.

[David Kelly 1245]

I agree with Fish. If we win on Saturday and those two lose and again midweek I'll be confident we'll stay up. Not before.

[Dr Gloom 21923]

i'm not confident but i'm more optimistic than this time last year because we're playing like a team, finally, instead of a bunch of tarts.

 

the pressure is on sunderland and norwich as well because we've already got the points on the board and they'll have watched how rafa has improved our performances. i don't see sunderland getting 7 points from their remaining three games. so win our final two and i reckon we'll be alright. easier said than done, obviously. but we've got a good chance.

[Gemmill 44874]

I agree with Fish. If we win on Saturday and those two lose and again midweek I'll be confident we'll stay up. Not before.

You'll be confident we'll stay up once it becomes a mathematical certainty?

[The Fish 10857]

i'm not confident but i'm more optimistic than this time last year because we're playing like a team, finally, instead of a bunch of tarts.

 

"finally" being the key word. Might be too late I'm afraid.

 

 

 

the pressure is on sunderland and norwich as well because we've already got the points on the board and they'll have watched how rafa has improved our performances. i don't see sunderland getting 7 points from their remaining three games. so win our final two and i reckon we'll be alright. easier said than done, obviously. but we've got a good chance.

 

I don't think they'll get 7, I think they might get 5 and I'm confident we won't get 6.

[Dr Gloom 21923]

well i hope to fuck you're not right again fish. we're showing more fight than we did last season so i'm more confident you're wrong. but i was confident you were wrong last year, so we'll probably go down now. cunt

Edited May 4, 2016 by Dr Gloom

[David Kelly 1245]

You'll be confident we'll stay up once it becomes a mathematical certainty?

Exactly.

[The Fish 10857]

well i hope to fuck you're not right again fish. we're showing more fight than we did last season so i'm confident you're wrong. but i was confident you were wrong last year, so we'll probably go down now. cunt

 

Soz yeah. This kind of foresight has always been a burden.

[Howmanheyman 33199]

We had to stay up last year as as fish says, we only needed one win. This year all we can do is win our games and hope the pressure gets to Sunderland and Norwich. Also keep our fingers crossed that a bit of karma comes their way. Anyway, means jack shit if we don't beat Villa on Saturday. As happy as I've been with the application the last few games we still don't look convincing going forward. Need Anita fit and I'd seriously question Gini playing. Watching him live he was even worse than on the TV, we just can't carry him and leave the gaps he makes for the opposition. Going to be a touching cloth game for us on Saturday.

[The Fish 10857]

We had to stay up last year as as fish says, we only needed one win. This year all we can do is win our games and hope the pressure gets to Sunderland and Norwich. Also keep our fingers crossed that a bit of karma comes their way. Anyway, means jack shit if we don't beat Villa on Saturday. As happy as I've been with the application the last few games we still don't look convincing going forward. Need Anita fit and I'd seriously question Gini playing. Watching him live he was even worse than on the TV, we just can't carry him and leave the gaps he makes for the opposition. Going to be a touching cloth game for us on Saturday.

 

Problem his natural replacement hasn't been much cop either. Perez's performances have tailed off dramatically.

[McFaul 35]

You said Swansea had thrown in the towel in January. Your words are like dead centipedes falling into baby's breast milk.

c'est tres vrai

Edited May 4, 2016 by McFaul

[David Kelly 1245]

Problem his natural replacement hasn't been much cop either. Perez's performances have tailed off dramatically.

Arguably a more natural replacement would be Aarons. Maybe it's time to try him. Either that or look to move Sissoko onto the left and bring Shelvey back in with a bit more freedom to attack.

 

It will be really interesting if we can win on Saturday and the other two lose. That puts massive pressure on their midweek games.

[McFaul 35]

Couldn't be more confident of the fact we'll stay up. I don't even fear Tottenham. Their goal difference is 14 better than Arsenal so all they need to do really is avoid a 9-0 defeat.

[Dr Gloom 21923]

if we get six points from our final two games and still don't survive it'll be too cruel. that will have been a six game unbeaten run.

[The Fish 10857]

Arguably a more natural replacement would be Aarons. Maybe it's time to try him. Either that or look to move Sissoko onto the left and bring Shelvey back in with a bit more freedom to attack.

 

It will be really interesting if we can win on Saturday and the other two lose. That puts massive pressure on their midweek games.

 

If results go our way on Saturday and I'll be more confident, but they could both lose on Saturday, we could win and they've still got that game in hand against sides whose seasons are over AND who are bang average. Our game may well be against a team whose season is over, but they're still a good side and if we need to better Sunderland's result on the final day I don't see us doing it.

 

I reckon I'm 80% confident we're going down, if we win & they both lose I'll probably shift to 70%, they fuck up their game in hand and I'll grow in confidence further. But right now, we've won the games we thought winnable, so really nowt's changed.

[The Fish 10857]

Our 6 game form is 1.33PpG

Away from home it's 0.17PpG

 

Our form vs bottom half teams is 1.00PpG

Away from home it's 0.38PpG

[Renton 21624]

 

If results go our way on Saturday and I'll be more confident, but they could both lose on Saturday, we could win and they've still got that game in hand against sides whose seasons are over AND who are bang average. Our game may well be against a team whose season is over, but they're still a good side and if we need to better Sunderland's result on the final day I don't see us doing it.

 

I reckon I'm 80% confident we're going down, if we win & they both lose I'll probably shift to 70%, they fuck up their game in hand and I'll grow in confidence further. But right now, we've won the games we thought winnable, so really nowt's changed.

This is just pessimism for the sake of it, just as last year you were unreasonably optimistic. If we're 4 points clear after next weekend, with a winnable game left and our competitors under huge pressure, you give us a 30% chance of survival?

[Dr Gloom 21923]

Our 6 game form is 1.33PpG

Away from home it's 0.17PpG

 

Our form vs bottom half teams is 1.00PpG

Away from home it's 0.38PpG

 

our away form for the season is 0.17PpG?

 

we deserve to go down don't we

[Holden McGroin 6585]

I can see us getting 4 points and the mackems getting 5.

[The Fish 10857]

This is just pessimism for the sake of it, just as last year you were unreasonably optimistic. If we're 4 points clear after next weekend, with a winnable game left and our competitors under huge pressure, you give us a 30% chance of survival?

 

No it isn't. I wasn't unreasonably optimistic last year either. We needed a couple of points from within our final run under Carver and I had faith that we had the fixtures and players to get that, with or without Carver's interference.

 

Sunderland have 2 fixtures against midtable holidaymakers and they're proving hard to beat. 1 loss in 8, and that was to the champions elect.

Two of their three fixtures are at home.

They have a Striker in fine form and a fairly solid defence.

They can get a maximum of 9 points and we can get a maximum of 6.

If they win all their games we can't catch them.

If they win two of their games we have to win both of ours

If they only get a win and a draw we have to beat Villa and get at least a point at home to Spurs on the final day.

If they get 3 draws we need a win

Essentially, we need to get as many points from 2 fixtures as they do from 3.

 

 

We're awful away from home and it's Villa's final game of the season.

 

 

I'm not being unreasonably pessimistic at all.

If they get 4 points from 3 games we need at least a point at home to Spurs on the final day as their GD is better.

[Dr Gloom 21923]

 

No it isn't. I wasn't unreasonably optimistic last year either. We needed a couple of points from within our final run under Carver and I had faith that we had the fixtures and players to get that, with or without Carver's interference.

 

Sunderland have 2 fixtures against midtable holidaymakers and they're proving hard to beat. 1 loss in 8, and that was to the champions elect.

Two of their three fixtures are at home.

They have a Striker in fine form and a fairly solid defence.

They can get a maximum of 9 points and we can get a maximum of 6.

If they win all their games we can't catch them.

If they win two of their games we have to win both of ours

If they only get a win and a draw we have to beat Villa and get at least a point at home to Spurs on the final day.

If they get 3 draws we need a win

Essentially, we need to get as many points from 2 fixtures as they do from 3.

 

 

We're awful away from home and it's Villa's final game of the season.

 

 

I'm not being unreasonably pessimistic at all.

If they get 4 points from 3 games we need at least a point at home to Spurs on the final day as their GD is better.

 

we will NOT go down

[The Fish 10857]

 

we will NOT go down

 

[gpirlo68 0]

This is just pessimism for the sake of it, just as last year you were unreasonably optimistic. If we're 4 points clear after next weekend, with a winnable game left and our competitors under huge pressure, you give us a 30% chance of survival?

Sunderland seem to always find a way of staying up though, spawny as fuck the last ten years

They get 4 points from the next 3 games we are fucked

[Renton 21624]

Sunderland seem to always find a way of staying up though, spawny as fuck the last ten years

They get 4 points from the next 3 games we are fucked

I'd settle for them getting 4 points now Tbh, and think they will. But I still think we have at least a 30% chance now let alone after next weekend if permutations go as well as possible, as fish alluded to. He neglected to mention that Villa have lost ten in a row. We've already beaten spurs this year, it's not beyond us to get a point at home with benitez as our manager, ffs carver beat west ham last year when he had to. He also neglected to mention Sunderland's win record is very poor and that's what they need.

 

I understand and feel the apprehension myself, but logically under the scenario fish presented we have a better than 30% staying up.