The EU Referendum

[Christmas Tree 4821]

So, it now looks as we'll be voting on this next May. Anybody have any idea how the UK would vote today, how they think it will turn out and whether leaving would be a disaster or not.

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3963]

I would like England to vote to leave, and Scotland to vote to stay, this would trigger a referendum and the No campaign couldn't raise scare stories about Scotland not being part of the EU if they vote Yes.

[Christmas Tree 4821]

I think the oil price fiasco has scared enough Scots into staying put.

[ewerk 31195]

Who is allowed to vote will have a huge effect. If the vote is opened to EU nationals resident in the UK and to British passport holders living abroad then that will be a significant addition to the in vote.

[Gemmill 46022]

I would like England to vote to leave, and Scotland to vote to stay, this would trigger a referendum and the No campaign couldn't raise scare stories about Scotland not being part of the EU if they vote Yes.

 

Have you seen what happened to the oil price, which your entire economy was built on last time around? You need to wipe the woad off your face and chill out a bit.

[Park Life 71]

UK won't leave the EU. It will be difficult enough to get the bill through the lower house. MP's have a second gravy train now and dream of picking up EU jobs once they leave the house. There is perhaps a core right wing group of the Tories based around the 1922 committee and at most 30/40 MP's that want out but it won't be enough. Even if the bill gets through the whole weight of the EU propaganda machine will go into overdrive negating the sceptic right wing media. Think we will stay in but it might be close. Scotland and Wales want in and maybe half of Eng want out.

 

The EU is a kind of socialism by the back door and hence its initial appeal to Labour back in the day...Various bits of social, rights and employment legislation hold in check knee jerk Capitalism. The other side to it of course that a lot of the legislation favours big companies, especially all the Green stuff which is counter productive to business and expensive to implement.

 

The world is moving to 5 trade zones and there isn't a fucking thing anyone can do about it.

 

If I was running things I'd kick off by flattening Brussels.

Edited May 13, 2015 by Park Life

[JJ 0]

Oil was 15% of the economy. By the time all of KCG's scenario was played out, who knows where it would be?

 

To be honest, the result of the EU referendum depends on how quickly the campaign to stay in gets off the ground and actually is effective. If they continue to allow the EU debate to be dictated by UKIP, the more chance there is that there'll be an Out vote. I personally think there'll be a narrow In victory. Narrower than the Scottish referendum result.

[Dr Gloom 22143]

if the vote was tomorrow, we'd vote to stay. the majority of the public will look at it as a better the devil you know issue. plus cameron would campaign negatively on the dangers of leaving - just as the no campaign did during the scottish referendum, backed by the businesses that backed the tory election campaign.

[Renton 21983]

I would like England to vote to leave, and Scotland to vote to stay, this would trigger a referendum and the No campaign couldn't raise scare stories about Scotland not being part of the EU if they vote Yes.

How do you work that out? Scotland is part of the UK at present and the UK dictates foreign policy. The EU referendum will be first and if voted no Scotland will be out as well with no guarantee of quick re-entry following secession. Not to mention 80% of your trade is with rUK and not Europe!

 

 

Christ it's weird an English man hating the English (including the northern English it would seem) as much as you seem to.

[JJ 0]

if the vote was tomorrow, we'd vote to stay. the majority of the public will look at it as a better the devil you know issue. plus cameron would campaign negatively on the dangers of leaving - just as the no campaign did during the scottish referendum, backed by the businesses that backed the tory election campaign.

My only worry is that the scare tactics up here during the referendum led to people asking "what the hell is the UK actually doing for us?" There's no denying that Scottish independence, while a few years ago a fringe movement, is now a mass movement that is close, but not quite, at a majority.

 

The reason it makes me worry about the EU referendum is that we're already not that far away from an Out Vote. Scottish Independence at the start of the campaign sat at between 25 and 30%. Any shift of momentum towards an Out vote asking "what does Europe do for us?" could propel us out the exit door.

[Monkeys Fist 43063]

 

Have you seen what happened to the oil price, which your entire economy was built on last time around? You need to wipe the woad off your face and chill out a bit.

 

[Gemmill 46022]

 

 

 

Skinner pointed out on his podcast the other day what a tremendous Krankies reboot Salmond and Sturgeon could do. Had never occured to me, but he's spot on.

[Monkeys Fist 43063]

Would that include the funky sexy partys?

 

 

( can you imagine how gutted you'd be if you'd arranged a "swap meet" and the Krankies turned up )

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3963]

How do you work that out? Scotland is part of the UK at present and the UK dictates foreign policy. The EU referendum will be first and if voted no Scotland will be out as well with no guarantee of quick re-entry following secession. Not to mention 80% of your trade is with rUK and not Europe!

 

 

Christ it's weird an English man hating the English (including the northern English it would seem) as much as you seem to.

 

 

It's weird that someone I thought had some intelligence is as completely dense and closed minded as you are. I LIVE IN A DIFFERENT PLACE NOW, I VOTE FOR MY CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES. Independance has nothing to do with my view on England or the English but for a wish to be self governing.

[ChezGiven 0]

Wipe that woad off your face

[Renton 21983]

 

 

It's weird that someone I thought had some intelligence is as completely dense and closed minded as you are. I LIVE IN A DIFFERENT PLACE NOW, I VOTE FOR MY CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES. Independance has nothing to do with my view on England or the English but for a wish to be self governing.

Presumably you want Scotland to stay in the Euro because it would be bad to leave it? Yet you wish that on England to facilitate your desire for Scotland's independence? Knowing that will be damaging to England? Sorry, that strikes me as a twattish attitude to have, especially assuming you still have friends and relatives here. Basically a fuck you attitude I'd normally associated with...... Tories. Edited May 13, 2015 by Renton

[Christmas Tree 4821]

if the vote was tomorrow, we'd vote to stay. the majority of the public will look at it as a better the devil you know issue. plus cameron would campaign negatively on the dangers of leaving - just as the no campaign did during the scottish referendum, backed by the businesses that backed the tory election campaign.

Iirc the last poll (though what do they mean these days), in the Guardian had it as 49 stay, 51 out.

 

I think the UKIP folk will swing it to an out vote.

[Christmas Tree 4821]

 

 

It's weird that someone I thought had some intelligence is as completely dense and closed minded as you are. I LIVE IN A DIFFERENT PLACE NOW, I VOTE FOR MY CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES. Independance has nothing to do with my view on England or the English but for a wish to be self governing.

Don't you realise that if you were independent and fiscally responsible, not living off the handout, a Scottish government would have to take its own "tough decisions".

 

This shite "we nae want Austerity" patter is pathetic and you are being taken for mugs.

 

Sturgeon gets to do the nice stuff and blame the nasty stuff on Westminster.

 

A year or two of independence and you would be begging to be back in.

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3963]

Don't you realise that if you were independent and fiscally responsible, not living off the handout, a Scottish government would have to take its own "tough decisions".

 

This shite "we nae want Austerity" patter is pathetic and you are being taken for mugs.

 

Sturgeon gets to do the nice stuff and blame the nasty stuff on Westminster.

 

A year or two of independence and you would be begging to be back in.

Just like all those other countries who gained independance from the UK.

[Gemmill 46022]

"we nae want austerity." It's no wonder you're such a Boris Johnson fan.

[Makom 0]

It will depend on whether the great British public believes what is written in the likes of the Mail or the Sun, and has the general time/ability/desire to do their own research before deciding.

 

So that's a no/out then....

[Gemmill 46022]

Just like all those other countries who gained independance from the UK.

If it's that fucking important to you, you'd think at least be able to spell it.

[Monkeys Fist 43063]

http://youtu.be/fYdSoSmyZOQ

[Rayvin 5295]

Just like all those other countries who gained independance from the UK.

 

You're right on this tbf, there'd be no way back once you voted out - the UK electorate wouldn't have it and neither would the Scots, even if both countries were going to hell.

 

Eventual propping up by the EU would beckon.

 

I'm not personally certain that Scotland is capable of running the sort of government the SNP are putting forward (highly liberal and socially responsible) while still being able to finance the same (unless we're talking incredibly high taxes on the rich, who would inevitably flee to the UK). Maybe it could profit if the UK bails on Europe though, by lowering Corp. tax and offering the US a foothold in Europe that the UK would have been previously...but since they're not going to be independent at the time the UK's future is resolved, I'm not sure that'll come to anything helpful.

[Monkeys Fist 43063]

 

 

Skinner pointed out on his podcast the other day what a tremendous Krankies reboot Salmond and Sturgeon could do. Had never occured to me, but he's spot on.