Park Life 71 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 (edited) Germany was downgraded by one ratings agency last week. We certainly won't fair any better. The Germans are in a catch 22: Pay up or let the euro and the cheap exports that come with that go. Edited July 26, 2012 by Park Life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt 0 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Germany was downgraded by one ratings agency last week. We certainly won't fair any better. The Germans are in a catch 22: Pay up or let the euro and the cheap exports that come with that go. Germany wasn't downgraded. It was put on negative outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 71 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Germany wasn't downgraded. It was put on negative outlook. It was serious enough for an angry response from the Finance minister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt 0 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 But it still wasn't downgraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 71 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 But it still wasn't downgraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44864 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 what sort of a response is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 71 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 what sort of a response is that? It's a kind of downgrade if not a techinical one, hence the hysterical response here. TT is so picky nowadays I can't get my flow going like I used to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30602 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 71 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 (edited) Anyway Germany will get downgraded and then all hell with break loose. The debate about the euro here is getting as heated as I've ever seen it. But subsidising the corrupt and malfunctioning sleepy southern realms so you can sell them stuff is reaching the end of the line. Edited July 26, 2012 by Park Life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven 0 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 It really is though. Dress it up any way you like but the debt bubble economy replaced mass manufacturing and kept u's ticking along during the last 30 odd years. Now the bubbles burst we are screwed. No debt bubble to bolster the economy, no mass manufacturing and no big public expenditure. The fact that today people like Renton etc can't get their head around this amazes me. It really isnt what you've been saying, you said that cutting expenditure was the right thing to do and even though you in no way articulated this precisely, believed the right wing think tanks/journalists that the private sector would come in and the economy would recover. Thats a matter of record in this thread. You really have not understood a single thing that has happened in the last decade if you talk of 30 year debt bubbles. The debt bubble that caused today's problems occurred in 2005 and manifested itself in 2007. Mortgage lending was financed through the creation of complex default swaps, some of those default swaps were graded triple A but were in fact junk. The result of changes in the credit markets and the activities of lender in the years 2003 to 2005 (continuing through to 2007 but the 2007 defaults were mortgages issues in 2005 - these were 125% mortgages which could be rolled over for each month for 2 years, their issue to the market peaked in 2005, meaning a crash was waiting 2 years later). I'm not going over the subsequent economics with you as its a waste of my time but a whole edifice of triple A graded credit, appearing as assets on the books of banks and used as collateral in their in their financial dealing, suddenly went to shit. The subsequent increase in debt for countries bailing out their banks was > 50% of the total amount of debt they held. The subsequent recession, created the deficits. Why manufacture an iPhone? The manufacturer in China received $5 per iPhone. Apple, who owns the intellectual property but has no manufacturing capability, received $100 per iPhone. Neither the answer, nor the problem is about manufacturing. Innovation in high tech industries, monetising the internet etc, these are the new frontiers, which have always been the source of global economic growth. Dont get me wrong, we face huge challenges opening up new frontiers and from over-population./ environment but the current problems are occurring because of specific activity of the banks in the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 71 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 (edited) Male fertility and birthrates are down all over bar Africa. Japan and most of euro are barely replacement rate...(it's worse if you take immigrant children out of the equation). China's 1 to 1 policy means that withing a decade or so they will start to have the same aging pop issues Jpn and Euro has..Think pop will peak and then start going down. Pop rates are high in Africa due to poverty and the perception to have more kids to look after the elders due to lack of healthcare and state services and so on...Again the ans is to increase wealth and living standards in Africa but this runs counter to post-capitalist asset grabs. The growth model (that pensions and investments have been relying on) is essentially broken. The good news is mankind has historically been good at replacing paradigms when survival is at stake. *Totally agree about the CDS though. The fact that at Bear and Lehmann they were pretty much the only collateral left is amusing. Obama did ask Jobs to move apple production back to California which was met with an uncomfortable silence. It's more about getting money (wages) back into the hands of the population in the west to re-invigorate consumer spend. It's no good moving jobs if the locals don't have the cash to buy the products. No matter how much inovation there is if the money doesn't get down out to the periphery (us) and ends up in Swiss banks the problems will remain the same. IMHO. Think we are fast heading for an era of protectionism. Soros predicted all this about a decade ago. Edited July 26, 2012 by Park Life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face 29 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Anyway Germany will get downgraded and then all hell with break loose. The debate about the euro here is getting as heated as I've ever seen it. But subsidising the corrupt and malfunctioning sleepy southern realms so you can sell them stuff is reaching the end of the line. Krugman et al have been telling everyone the Euro was dead for months...too good an opportunity to increase borrowing with the IMF and have their business friendly Laissez-faire agenda shoved down nations throats to pull the plug straight away though. Only once the big boys start to drop, then they'll tear it up and start again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 71 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Krugman et al have been telling everyone the Euro was dead for months...too good an opportunity to increase borrowing with the IMF and have their business friendly Laissez-faire agenda shoved down nations throats to pull the plug straight away though. Only once the big boys start to drop, then they'll tear it up and start again. The feeling is that New York is now readying to go after the King (Germany). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven 0 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Happy Face on the money there. Another thing CT, when the problems of the post-banking crisis were being felt not just in the UK but all across the EU, the US and many other countries, you were spouting shite on here that it was all down to Gordon Brown. Now that the argument goes the other way, its down to 30 year old debt bubbles. Funny that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 71 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 (edited) Krugman et al have been telling everyone the Euro was dead for months...too good an opportunity to increase borrowing with the IMF and have their business friendly Laissez-faire agenda shoved down nations throats to pull the plug straight away though. Only once the big boys start to drop, then they'll tear it up and start again. http://www.newcastle...,90812.0.html The IMF borrow money from the same people who are fuking up Europe. The irony of course is that Euro is getting fucked by the same tactics they used to use to steal wealth from the third world. That well has run dry and now it's our turn. The west has to go to war with the banks. Edited July 26, 2012 by Park Life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4725 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 He spells us u apostrophe s ffs. Tapatalk auto correct actually moleman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4725 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 I can't get my head round that? Do you think that's a mainstream view or something? There's more to wealth creation than making nuts and bolts you know. The UK has and has to leave this type of manufacturing output behind and concentrate on the high end of things, such as R&D and service provision China et al can't provide. There's more money to be made in coding software than there is in manufacturing hardware for instance. Astonishing ignorance Please explain how high end R&D is going to employ the masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4725 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 From the FT: "The data are shocking and no amount of excuses about rainfall or the Queen’s Jubilee can explain away such weak growth,” said Alan Wilde of Baring Asset Management. “Osborne’s personal ratings for economic competency are plummeting and the credit rating agencies will be deeply concerned by today’s report . . . this may well hasten a downgrade.” Sounds like Gideon has lost the confidence of the very people his austerity measures were supposed to reassure. Its pretty likely he will be fed to the Lions sooner rather than later but there's nobody lurking in the background with a plan B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Park Life 71 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Its pretty likely he will be fed to the Lions sooner rather than later but there's nobody lurking in the background with a plan B. CT what would you say to massive state intervention with high spend on public projects?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkeys Fist 42427 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Astonishing ignorance Please explain how high end R&D is going to employ the masses. By developing tech/products which "the masses" will be employed to make ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4725 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 It really isnt what you've been saying, you said that cutting expenditure was the right thing to do and even though you in no way articulated this precisely, believed the right wing think tanks/journalists that the private sector would come in and the economy would recover. Thats a matter of record in this thread. You really have not understood a single thing that has happened in the last decade if you talk of 30 year debt bubbles. The debt bubble that caused today's problems occurred in 2005 and manifested itself in 2007. Mortgage lending was financed through the creation of complex default swaps, some of those default swaps were graded triple A but were in fact junk. The result of changes in the credit markets and the activities of lender in the years 2003 to 2005 (continuing through to 2007 but the 2007 defaults were mortgages issues in 2005 - these were 125% mortgages which could be rolled over for each month for 2 years, their issue to the market peaked in 2005, meaning a crash was waiting 2 years later). I'm not going over the subsequent economics with you as its a waste of my time but a whole edifice of triple A graded credit, appearing as assets on the books of banks and used as collateral in their in their financial dealing, suddenly went to shit. The subsequent increase in debt for countries bailing out their banks was > 50% of the total amount of debt they held. The subsequent recession, created the deficits. Why manufacture an iPhone? The manufacturer in China received $5 per iPhone. Apple, who owns the intellectual property but has no manufacturing capability, received $100 per iPhone. Neither the answer, nor the problem is about manufacturing. Innovation in high tech industries, monetising the internet etc, these are the new frontiers, which have always been the source of global economic growth. Dont get me wrong, we face huge challenges opening up new frontiers and from over-population./ environment but the current problems are occurring because of specific activity of the banks in the last decade. Again you are merging to viewpoints. One is relating to the decline of UK manufacturing and how this decline was papered over by various boom and busts and an ever increasing over reliance on credit. No ammount of R&D or internet frontiers are going to employ the masses in Burnley or Bognor. The second viewpoint is about the Conservatives being better suited to deal with this situation than the rabble who joked about "no money left". I stick by that viewpoint. The fact that our biggest market, Europe is on its arse, is of course going to effect anything we do to try and increase growth. As I keep saying, and it keeps getting ignored, the cuts have hardly even kicked in yet so trying to use them as an excuse for lack of growth is quite stupid. We are a fat bloated society that has suckled at the tits of handouts and debt to kid ourselves that everything would be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21620 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 R&D was just one example. It can and does employ thousands of professionals, and there is a huge trickle down effect to services such as yourself. There's also high tech engineering projects such as the euro Typhoon which necessarily has huge amounts of R&D attached to it. Lower down the scale we make and export a huge amount of cars. These are the areas we need to compete in, not sweat shops ffs. It's also the areas your Dave keeps banging on about; so if I'm ignorant what about him? What we need though is some proper investment in the technologies of the future and a strategy, which is sadly lacking. Can't be naffed getting into a detailed argument on an IPhone, but you've surpassed yourself in this thread recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4725 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 Happy Face on the money there. Another thing CT, when the problems of the post-banking crisis were being felt not just in the UK but all across the EU, the US and many other countries, you were spouting shite on here that it was all down to Gordon Brown. Now that the argument goes the other way, its down to 30 year old debt bubbles. Funny that. Even Tony told you last week his government didnt have a scooby doo about finances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4725 Posted July 26, 2012 Author Share Posted July 26, 2012 CT what would you say to massive state intervention with high spend on public projects?? It would only be window dressing for the masses (and pocket lining for rich friends), and would make no difference to the underlying problems well documented over the last two days. Its time to take sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30602 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 As I keep saying, and it keeps getting ignored, the cuts have hardly even kicked in yet so trying to use them as an excuse for lack of growth is quite stupid. So when the cuts kick in, how do you reckon things will go? Can you see the real cuts helping to stimulate economic growth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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