ChezGiven 0 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yeah, stop austerity, use Keynesian which works short term but drives up debt meaning in real terms in the long term you're fucked. Let's do that! Read the conclusion to this paper. http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/economists/eggertsson/Eggertsson2010MacroAnnual.pdf Austerity is not only just failing, its actually making things worse. Debt has never been the problem, its the deficit that is the issue. The US has trillions of dollars worth of debt but no one cares. At one point this year, the country with the highest total debt in the world (not by % of GDP of course but its just to illustrate the point) was being paid by investors to keep their money. The US treasury issued bonds to the bond market. Instead of the bond traders saying to the treasury, ok we'll buy the bond in return for 2% interest (currently 7.5% in Spain). They said, 'we'll lend you the money and you can give us less money back in the future'. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17/treasury-sells-inflation-notes-at-record-low-negative-yield.html The deficit was caused by the huge contraction in the economy in 2008, the diagnosis by the right was that this was because we spend too much ( what? ), so they said we should introduce austerity, which just contracts the economy. You know Spain ran a surplus up to 2008 but the Tories said that Gordon Brown caused the crisis because we ran a small deficit. Now Spain is mired in crisis, how does the platform that Cameron used to get into power make any sense? How did Gordon Brown's actions cause these global issues? Cameron lied and relied upon idiots buying into parochial / national arguments that ignored the fact that the issues the UK faced were not created by increased spending on the NHS, the key driver of the small deficit. Everyone schooled in neo-keynesianism said consistently throughout 2009/10 that if you introduce swinging cuts in the public sector, this will lead to further contractions of the economy, a double-dip recession and will just compound current problems. What you are saying is that the people who predicted exactly what would happen should be ignored and the people propagating a policy that is failing on its arse should be followed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face 29 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 the deficit needs to be reduced, but the the speed and aggressive nature of the austerity was always going to result in a double dip. gordon brown was right about that. borrowing is also going up under the tories, ironically. sharp cuts in government spending are leading to economic contraction, which in turn is widening the deficit. The deficit has been reduced by a quarter since 2009, but debt is still growing. Important to recognise the difference between the 2. Good overview at 15:40 here... http://www.bbc.co.uk...cs_of_cheating/ Most of the deficit reuction is supposed to come from recovery, not from cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4825 Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 (edited) The Western world is fucked regardless of how many high brow talkers (not aimed at anybody on TT ) think they have the solution. We have been fucked since the 70's / 80's and only boom and bust situations have kept the bubble ticking along under various governments. Now the bubble has well and truly burst, there is no road back to the good times. They have gone. All any government can now do is manage the decline. Any party that claims substantial growth is a few policy changes around the corner is lying pure and simple. All we can do is bunker down and await the uprising. Edited July 25, 2012 by Christmas Tree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21996 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 What a load of unmitigated shite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10963 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The Western world is fucked regardless of how many high brow talkers (not aimed at anybody on TT ) think they have the solution. We have been fucked since the 70's / 80's and only boom and bust situations have kept the bubble ticking along under various governments. Now the bubble has well and truly burst, there is no road back to the good times. They have gone. All any government can now do is manage the decline. Any party that claims substantial growth is a few policy changes around the corner is lying pure and simple. All we can do is bunker down and await the uprising. funny how you weren't singing this song under Labour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21996 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 (edited) The best prime minister of our life time's is superbly managing the end days! As has been said, this economic crisis was precisely forecast when the con dems took power. It's of our own making. Edited July 25, 2012 by Renton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4825 Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Same song Ive always sung. Of course Labour had a chance to limit the pain but as Tone said this week, they didnt quite understand all that financial stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JawD 99 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I voted Tory. I was wrong. Kind of. The problem for me is that while I completely agreed that the deficit needed reducing, when it was clear the economy wasnt going to grow no matter what they done due to its strangulation, they should have reversed their plan and boosted growth my increasing spending to turn the wheels. One of the reasons I hate politics. They wont change their mind through fear of ridicule even if its the right thing to do, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 22147 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 (edited) The deficit has been reduced by a quarter since 2009, but debt is still growing. Important to recognise the difference between the 2. Good overview at 15:40 here... The deficit has been reduced by a quarter since 2009, but debt is still growing. Important to recognise the difference between the 2. Good overview at 15:40 here... http://www.bbc.co.uk...cs_of_cheating/ Most of the deficit reuction is supposed to come from recovery, not from cuts. Most of the deficit reuction is supposed to come from recovery, not from cuts. yeah, that's what i meant. it's economics 101. you don't get the growth needed to reduce the deficit from savage austerity measures Edited July 25, 2012 by Dr Gloom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven 0 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The deficit has been reduced by a quarter since 2009, but debt is still growing. Important to recognise the difference between the 2. Good overview at 15:40 here... http://www.bbc.co.uk...cs_of_cheating/ Most of the deficit reuction is supposed to come from recovery, not from cuts. Deficit statistic was enhanced when the government transferred the royal mail pensions funds assets onto its books in April. http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/mar/19/royal-mail-pension-transfer-means 2nd para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10963 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Same song Ive always sung. Of course Labour had a chance to limit the pain but as Tone said this week, they didnt quite understand all that financial stuff Utter shit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4825 Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 I voted Tory. I was wrong. Kind of. The problem for me is that while I completely agreed that the deficit needed reducing, when it was clear the economy wasnt going to grow no matter what they done due to its strangulation, they should have reversed their plan and boosted growth my increasing spending to turn the wheels. One of the reasons I hate politics. They wont change their mind through fear of ridicule even if its the right thing to do, I love this idea that the only reason they dont change something is because of fear of ridicule. Politics doesnt work like that. The only think that matters to most MP's is survival. If there was a quick change of policy that would make everything rosy then George would go and carry the can. They would even get rid of Dave. The truth is nothing is going to make a scrap of difference, WHICH IS WHY, you are hearing no sniff of a magic policy from Labour. They are just saying nasty tories, cut too fast too deep. Most sensible folk no two things. 1. In the grand scheme of things there was very little difference between the cuts being put forward by both parties at the last election. 2. The cuts have barely started yet as they were heavy loaded towards the back of the coalitions 5 year term. Its something like 2-3% of the 25% cuts have so far been implemented. Trust me, we are doomed. Hoard fresh water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 31199 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 There are only 2 economic levers, interest rates and the fiscal system. Quantitative easing? Is there any evidence that this is having a measurable impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4825 Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Quantitative easing? Is there any evidence that this is having a measurable impact? You used to have that Avatar when I first joined in 2008 iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fish 10963 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 CT man, you were saying that your man Dave would sort out thi country, we'd see. Now you're saying nobody can sort it. And I have absolutely no doubt that, come the next election if Labour return to power, you'll say any progress is all down to the work done by the coalition government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21996 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I voted Tory. I was wrong. Kind of. The problem for me is that while I completely agreed that the deficit needed reducing, when it was clear the economy wasnt going to grow no matter what they done due to its strangulation, they should have reversed their plan and boosted growth my increasing spending to turn the wheels. One of the reasons I hate politics. They wont change their mind through fear of ridicule even if its the right thing to do, This government must have flip flopped more than any government in history. Problem is the leadership is absolutely dire, they don't have a clue. And that's no endorsement of Milliband either who is from the same stock but pinned his flag to a different mast. It's depressing. For all his faults Brown is severely missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 31199 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 (edited) You used to have that Avatar when I first joined in 2008 iirc. Leazes' attack on IRA terrorists' right to bear arms has forced its return. Edited July 25, 2012 by ewerk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven 0 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Quantitative easing? Is there any evidence that this is having a measurable impact? Under normal circumstance you would say monetary policy should not include printing money but there is some sense in raising inflation expectations. If people think QE will raise prices in the future, they may consume more in the present (increase aggregate demand). No evidence its working though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy Face 29 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I love this idea that the only reason they dont change something is because of fear of ridicule. Politics doesnt work like that. The only think that matters to most MP's is survival. If there was a quick change of policy that would make everything rosy then George would go and carry the can. They would even get rid of Dave. The truth is nothing is going to make a scrap of difference, WHICH IS WHY, you are hearing no sniff of a magic policy from Labour. They are just saying nasty tories, cut too fast too deep. Most sensible folk no two things. 1. In the grand scheme of things there was very little difference between the cuts being put forward by both parties at the last election. 2. The cuts have barely started yet as they were heavy loaded towards the back of the coalitions 5 year term. Its something like 2-3% of the 25% cuts have so far been implemented. Trust me, we are doomed. Hoard fresh water. The reason they don't change it is nothing to do with losing face, but it's not the defeatist view you have of there not being a better way for the entire population either. They don't change it because it suits them and their multi millionaire/billionaire chums/donors down to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meenzer 15716 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Hoard fresh water. So this is why you're investing in all those tubs and beer bottles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4825 Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 The reason they don't change it is nothing to do with losing face, but it's not the defeatist view you have of there not being a better way for the entire population either. They don't change it because it suits them and their multi millionaire/billionaire chums/donors down to the ground. You seem to be aiming that misguided remark at the Tory party when it's public knowledge there was virtually nothing between labour and Tory plans in 2010. It amazes me that so many are obsessed with the little picture and not the big one. Nothing a UK government of any colour does, will have any difference on growth. The party was over long ago and only debt has kept it ticking along til 2008. Time to pay the bill for generations to come. Chinas turn now to party, then Brazil, then Africa etc etc. Without a debt bubble you need big industry employing the masses to create meaningful growth. Do you really think you are going to see that happen here in your lifetime. Each day we are creating new ways to put people out of jobs via technology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4825 Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 So this is why you're investing in all those tubs and beer bottles... Shit, my plans out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 46027 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 CT, when you know nothing of what you're talking about, you'd be much better served keeping your mouth shut or opening it to ask those who do to educate you. It's so cringeworthy when you start spouting off about this stuff. Save it for the taxi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christmas Tree 4825 Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 CT, when you know nothing of what you're talking about, you'd be much better served keeping your mouth shut or opening it to ask those who do to educate you. It's so cringeworthy when you start spouting off about this stuff. Save it for the taxi. Oh dear, Mr Nastys back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CleeToonFan 1 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The deficit is lowered, debt will soon be lowered, labour aren't in government, until next year when we finally start to regain growth I'll sit here quietly smug and happy. Improvements are slow but at least they're sticking to their guns, I'm no Tory but I think they're doing a wise job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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