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2 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Why is there not an actually functional and non-partisan tactical voting tool yet ffs.

 

What do you mean? Is that not what this is? 

Edited by Gemmill
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1 minute ago, Gemmill said:

 

What do you mean? 

 

Every tactical voting tool that I've come across seems to be telling people to vote LD in seats where they stand no chance of winning based on the 2019 Euro elections. It's a worthless recommendation.

 

Also, no one seems to be pushing any of them into the public eye because the Peoples Vote campaign has decided to devour itself from the inside out.

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This tool recommends voting for Labour in over 400 seats. And in at least one incidence that I've checked, they've amended their recommendation from Lib Dem to Labour, reflecting the shift in polling. 

 

They aren't basing it on 2019 btw. From what I can gather, this MRP polls about 50k people, and then works out what type of voter this person is (across a bunch of different demographic categories). They then attempt to work out the make up of each constituency by these voter types and thus project the vote at a constituency level. 

 

By all accounts it's been very accurate in the past and much more reliable than the old approach. 

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2 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

This tool recommends voting for Labour in over 400 seats. And in at least one incidence that I've checked, they've amended their recommendation from Lib Dem to Labour, reflecting the shift in polling. 

 

They aren't basing it on 2019 btw. From what I can gather, this MRP polls about 50k people, and then works out what type of voter this person is (across a bunch of different demographic categories). They then attempt to work out the make up of each constituency by these voter types and thus project the vote at a constituency level. 

 

By all accounts it's been very accurate in the past and much more reliable than the old approach. 

 

Ah so, MRP is a tactical voting tool? I missed that, I thought it was just a set of polling data.

 

Well of this is the one to use then great, I'll spread it around.

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Nah it is a different method of polling but it's much bigger sample sizes and what would appear to be a much more sophisticated approach. 

 

Obviously if they miscategorise voter types in a constituency then they could get it badly wrong. 

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Only needs 117k people across 57 constituencies to vote tactically in the right direction and Johnson is denied his majority.

 

Also worth mentioning that they've zeroed in on 57 constituencies as they say those are the ones needing fewer than 4,000 tactical votes each. There are others that could go the right way with a bit more than 4k tactical switches. 

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1 minute ago, Gemmill said:

Only needs 117k people across 57 constituencies to vote tactically in the right direction and Johnson is denied his majority.

 

Also worth mentioning that they've zeroed in on 57 constituencies as they say those are the ones needing fewer than 4,000 tactical votes each. There are others that could go the right way with a bit more than 4k tactical switches. 

 

If true, surely this isn't beyond us. It won't deliver a Labour majority either, meaning Labour are free to promise the earth without having to deliver. 

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3 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

So we use "getvoting.org".

 

And yet when I Google it, I get an article from the guardian saying not to trust it...

 

Naomi Smith from B4B admitted the site was rushed out more quickly than they'd like due to the launch of something similar from the Brexit lot. It has been updated since then so should be more accurate.

Edited by ewerk
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I think there's a lot of reluctance to accept recommendations - as I said when I initially looked at it, reccomending lib dems when they got 4% in 2017 seems wrong. Others like Canterbury or Kensington where Labour just won and they reccomend not voting for them also seems pig-headed. 

 

Since I've lived in Chelmsford it's been a safe tory seat and the other two have been split with the lib dems varying degrees of clear in second. Last time out Labour came a clear second but all the tactical sites reccomend the LDs which is probably correct. Only problem is the tories always get more than 50%  so either way its probably a waste of time. 

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16 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

Another BBC "mistake" that looks like favouring the Tories. 

 

There's no media bias mate, it's been confirmed several times and I for one am totally convinced. This shitshow is just standard operating procedure for what I can only assume are a collective of utter muppets.

Edited by Rayvin
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42 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

Are they? Will they? 

Well not technically. It’s not their fault Johnson reneged. But the Royal Charter demands that the BBC is impartial. I don’t see how they can let him get away with this and meet the demands of the Royal Charter without empty chairing him. Neil should follow Burley’s Lead and read to camera in forensic detail all the lies he would have scrutinised had Johnson appeared in body.

 

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