Politics

[manc-mag 1]

Heres a nice read on PFI from the Chanel four news economist correspondant, Liam Halligan

 

 

Back in 2004, I received an invitation to the annual dinner of the Public Private Partnership (PPP) Forum. A glitzy, black-tie evening was promised, amidst the mock-Gothic splendour of London's Royal Courts of Justice. As a financial journalist, I am asked to numerous swanky, yet frankly humdrum events. But the mighty PPP Forum is different. It comprises many of the UK's corporate A-list - more than 100 contractors, banks and law firms.

 

PFI, in turn, is a multi-billion pound industry. New Labour has signed hundreds of long-term contracts with the private sector to construct - and then service and maintain - schools, hospitals and other public buildings. The government pays back investors over 30 years or more, after which the buildings revert to the state. Even two years ago, it was clear the government had based the biggest public building programme since the war on a gigantic - and controversial - hire-purchase scheme.

 

 

 

CT...you've basically just posted something that demonstrates you didnt have a clue about the previous answer you gave.

[Christmas Tree 4814]

Heres a nice read on PFI from the Chanel four news economist correspondant, Liam Halligan

 

 

Back in 2004, I received an invitation to the annual dinner of the Public Private Partnership (PPP) Forum. A glitzy, black-tie evening was promised, amidst the mock-Gothic splendour of London's Royal Courts of Justice. As a financial journalist, I am asked to numerous swanky, yet frankly humdrum events. But the mighty PPP Forum is different. It comprises many of the UK's corporate A-list - more than 100 contractors, banks and law firms.

 

PFI, in turn, is a multi-billion pound industry. New Labour has signed hundreds of long-term contracts with the private sector to construct - and then service and maintain - schools, hospitals and other public buildings. The government pays back investors over 30 years or more, after which the buildings revert to the state. Even two years ago, it was clear the government had based the biggest public building programme since the war on a gigantic - and controversial - hire-purchase scheme.

 

 

 

CT...you've basically just posted something that demonstrates you didnt have a clue about the previous answer you gave.

 

 

And you've basically stopped as soon as you got to that bit rather than reading the full article.

 

In theory the government could take them back, however everyone knows that future governments will not want that financial burden and will instead keep paying the minimum payment.

 

£333 to change a light switch ffs

[manc-mag 1]

Heres a nice read on PFI from the Chanel four news economist correspondant, Liam Halligan

 

 

Back in 2004, I received an invitation to the annual dinner of the Public Private Partnership (PPP) Forum. A glitzy, black-tie evening was promised, amidst the mock-Gothic splendour of London's Royal Courts of Justice. As a financial journalist, I am asked to numerous swanky, yet frankly humdrum events. But the mighty PPP Forum is different. It comprises many of the UK's corporate A-list - more than 100 contractors, banks and law firms.

 

PFI, in turn, is a multi-billion pound industry. New Labour has signed hundreds of long-term contracts with the private sector to construct - and then service and maintain - schools, hospitals and other public buildings. The government pays back investors over 30 years or more, after which the buildings revert to the state. Even two years ago, it was clear the government had based the biggest public building programme since the war on a gigantic - and controversial - hire-purchase scheme.

 

 

 

CT...you've basically just posted something that demonstrates you didnt have a clue about the previous answer you gave.

 

 

And you've basically stopped as soon as you got to that bit rather than reading the full article.

 

In theory the government could take them back, however everyone knows that future governments will not want that financial burden and will instead keep paying the minimum payment.

 

£333 to change a light switch ffs

 

You're being massively selective now. I cropped the article because I was drawing attention to the fact that you didnt appear to know the fundemental difference between a rental agreement and a mortgage, despite happily contradicting Renton without a moments thought. I wasn't holding PFI up as some sort of panacea as you well know.

[Christmas Tree 4814]

Heres a nice read on PFI from the Chanel four news economist correspondant, Liam Halligan

 

 

Back in 2004, I received an invitation to the annual dinner of the Public Private Partnership (PPP) Forum. A glitzy, black-tie evening was promised, amidst the mock-Gothic splendour of London's Royal Courts of Justice. As a financial journalist, I am asked to numerous swanky, yet frankly humdrum events. But the mighty PPP Forum is different. It comprises many of the UK's corporate A-list - more than 100 contractors, banks and law firms.

 

PFI, in turn, is a multi-billion pound industry. New Labour has signed hundreds of long-term contracts with the private sector to construct - and then service and maintain - schools, hospitals and other public buildings. The government pays back investors over 30 years or more, after which the buildings revert to the state. Even two years ago, it was clear the government had based the biggest public building programme since the war on a gigantic - and controversial - hire-purchase scheme.

 

 

 

CT...you've basically just posted something that demonstrates you didnt have a clue about the previous answer you gave.

 

 

And you've basically stopped as soon as you got to that bit rather than reading the full article.

 

In theory the government could take them back, however everyone knows that future governments will not want that financial burden and will instead keep paying the minimum payment.

 

£333 to change a light switch ffs

 

You're being massively selective now. I cropped the article because I was drawing attention to the fact that you didnt appear to know the fundemental difference between a rental agreement and a mortgage, despite happily contradicting Renton without a moments thought. I wasn't holding PFI up as some sort of panacea as you well know.

 

 

And Im sure you also know that a PFI is nothing like a mortgage which is what Renton posted.

[manc-mag 1]

Heres a nice read on PFI from the Chanel four news economist correspondant, Liam Halligan

 

 

Back in 2004, I received an invitation to the annual dinner of the Public Private Partnership (PPP) Forum. A glitzy, black-tie evening was promised, amidst the mock-Gothic splendour of London's Royal Courts of Justice. As a financial journalist, I am asked to numerous swanky, yet frankly humdrum events. But the mighty PPP Forum is different. It comprises many of the UK's corporate A-list - more than 100 contractors, banks and law firms.

 

PFI, in turn, is a multi-billion pound industry. New Labour has signed hundreds of long-term contracts with the private sector to construct - and then service and maintain - schools, hospitals and other public buildings. The government pays back investors over 30 years or more, after which the buildings revert to the state. Even two years ago, it was clear the government had based the biggest public building programme since the war on a gigantic - and controversial - hire-purchase scheme.

 

 

 

CT...you've basically just posted something that demonstrates you didnt have a clue about the previous answer you gave.

 

 

And you've basically stopped as soon as you got to that bit rather than reading the full article.

 

In theory the government could take them back, however everyone knows that future governments will not want that financial burden and will instead keep paying the minimum payment.

 

£333 to change a light switch ffs

 

You're being massively selective now. I cropped the article because I was drawing attention to the fact that you didnt appear to know the fundemental difference between a rental agreement and a mortgage, despite happily contradicting Renton without a moments thought. I wasn't holding PFI up as some sort of panacea as you well know.

 

 

And Im sure you also know that a PFI is nothing like a mortgage which is what Renton posted.

 

.....no I'm saying that it is more accurately characterised as a mortgage than a rental agreement given the technical construction of the respective terms. Which was the only question Renton posed (purely rhetorically too I suspect).

[NJS 4410]

I fundamentally disagree with Cameron's overdraft analogy, this is a deliberate attempt to frame the nation's debt position. Long-term government debt is a permanent piece of our national capital structure. It may be high, but it's certainly not all on demand. And yes, the interest on that debt could be used on schools, but a lot of the debt raised WAS used on schools, whereas we all know the Tories would simply cut taxes and tell parents to fuck off and set one up themselves.

 

What bothers me in the light of the obvious fact that the £6bn is a drop in the ocean is that it seems to be pandering to the markets and ensuring they feel as if the right thing is being done rather than actually thinking about the best strategy.

 

One thing that was suggested in the run up to the election by Labour was to shift the balance of the economy back to manufacturing and away from finance and though realising that would be a tough task, it would have the benefit of having more of an ability to stick two fingers up to a sector which has too much power.

 

 

Honestly, if that was possible it would have done already. It simply is basic economics that we cant make stuff as cheap as third world countries.

 

My view is that "The Markets" are simply looking back to the 80's and remembering the Tories took the hard decisions and got the public finances back under control. They know they are prepared to do it again.

 

There will be very few winners, only losers unfortunately.

 

 

I think they took the easy way out in "allowing" the finance sector to boom while not giving a shit about manufacturing (That's Labour as well as Tories) but I don't agree with a defeatist "China will build it all" mentality - I think there is a place for stuff like renewable energy technology and even "local" goods to be made here if it makes economic sense. By the latter I mean in terms of the related benefits of the jobs on the whole economy as I mentioned in relation to mining before.

 

As for the Markets they act on very short term bases and I'm sure they don't really understand what the cuts will mean - they just look back on a shallow level and think "Hmm Thatcher sorted it so it then so it's bound to work now" without any idea about how the world has changed. As I said before theres not that much left in places like the NE that they can cut any more.

[ChezGiven 0]

Its funny because the lastest Keynesian models predict that the most effective expansionary policy, when interest rates are effectively zero, is increased government spending. Arguably the situation we are in now. The deficit hawks say to cut spending and encourage the banks to lend. The banks still arent lending but they are cutting anyway. The new Keynesians say

 

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economis...zero-bound.html

 

Its the recession that caused the deficit anyway CT, so the solution is an economic recovery. We shrank by 6%, so we need to grow by 3% for 2 years to be nearly back to where we were on tax revenues (with a debt built up whilst returning to even).

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ce-1904129.html

 

Depressed earnings in the financial sector and the general weakness of the economy conspired to push receipts down by 9 per cent overall compared with last year; income tax takings slumped by 20 per cent, and corporation gains tax revenues fell by 6 per cent. VAT payments were up a little, after the 17.5 per cent rate was restored on 1 January. On the other side of the ledger, public spending is still showing double digit increases: 15 per cent up in January, driven higher by the rise in benefits to the unemployed.

 

The solution proposed across the G20 is to cut spending. This could give us a second recession which would further push down tax receipts and increase benefits.

 

The recession didnt cause the defecit only make it worse.

 

It was a well known policy to hope that growth will shrink the defecit but you can not just wait and hope while the oustanding debt continues to increase. You get to a tipping point where the interest payments along are such a huge burden that you can no longer do all the good things that governments should be doing with that money (as is the case now).

 

Labour predicted 3% growth for next year prior to the election however it now looks that those figures where way to optimistic so once again the debt rises.

 

The other problem to this plan is that you hope during the good years when the defecit is good, governments would use that money to reduce the overall debt. But what happens, tax cuts and massive public spending.

 

The recession caused the deficit to affect long term lending rates from the bond market. Which is why its an issue. The recession is the issue which is why i quoted the data in the Independent article from february.

 

A deficit is an indicator of the viability of the governments overall debt. It is not an endpoint in itself, thats the debt. The deficit is a marker for the lenders to understand the price they need to charge to allow governments to raise more capital since it is a marker for risk.

 

My point, which you either didn't get or ignored, is that there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that expansionary public spending has a much higher than normal multiplier effect when the real interest rate is near the zero bound.

 

Our only hope is that Clegg's presence will temper the instincts of the tories.

Edited June 6, 2010 by ChezGiven

[Christmas Tree 4814]

I fundamentally disagree with Cameron's overdraft analogy, this is a deliberate attempt to frame the nation's debt position. Long-term government debt is a permanent piece of our national capital structure. It may be high, but it's certainly not all on demand. And yes, the interest on that debt could be used on schools, but a lot of the debt raised WAS used on schools, whereas we all know the Tories would simply cut taxes and tell parents to fuck off and set one up themselves.

 

What bothers me in the light of the obvious fact that the £6bn is a drop in the ocean is that it seems to be pandering to the markets and ensuring they feel as if the right thing is being done rather than actually thinking about the best strategy.

 

One thing that was suggested in the run up to the election by Labour was to shift the balance of the economy back to manufacturing and away from finance and though realising that would be a tough task, it would have the benefit of having more of an ability to stick two fingers up to a sector which has too much power.

 

 

Honestly, if that was possible it would have done already. It simply is basic economics that we cant make stuff as cheap as third world countries.

 

My view is that "The Markets" are simply looking back to the 80's and remembering the Tories took the hard decisions and got the public finances back under control. They know they are prepared to do it again.

 

There will be very few winners, only losers unfortunately.

 

 

I think they took the easy way out in "allowing" the finance sector to boom while not giving a shit about manufacturing (That's Labour as well as Tories) but I don't agree with a defeatist "China will build it all" mentality - I think there is a place for stuff like renewable energy technology and even "local" goods to be made here if it makes economic sense. By the latter I mean in terms of the related benefits of the jobs on the whole economy as I mentioned in relation to mining before.

 

As for the Markets they act on very short term bases and I'm sure they don't really understand what the cuts will mean - they just look back on a shallow level and think "Hmm Thatcher sorted it so it then so it's bound to work now" without any idea about how the world has changed. As I said before theres not that much left in places like the NE that they can cut any more.

 

 

I think the finance boom was the last big hurrah and kept the economy going longer until the crash. I struggle to see what will come next.

 

Sure renewables might be a talking post in the north but as the job market goes it will be a tiny spec.

 

I can only see the benefit bill rising and taxes reducing.

 

Not sure what this will lead to other than declining public services and an inevitable privatising of things like the NHS.

[Christmas Tree 4814]

Its funny because the lastest Keynesian models predict that the most effective expansionary policy, when interest rates are effectively zero, is increased government spending. Arguably the situation we are in now. The deficit hawks say to cut spending and encourage the banks to lend. The banks still arent lending but they are cutting anyway. The new Keynesians say

 

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economis...zero-bound.html

 

Its the recession that caused the deficit anyway CT, so the solution is an economic recovery. We shrank by 6%, so we need to grow by 3% for 2 years to be nearly back to where we were on tax revenues (with a debt built up whilst returning to even).

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ce-1904129.html

 

Depressed earnings in the financial sector and the general weakness of the economy conspired to push receipts down by 9 per cent overall compared with last year; income tax takings slumped by 20 per cent, and corporation gains tax revenues fell by 6 per cent. VAT payments were up a little, after the 17.5 per cent rate was restored on 1 January. On the other side of the ledger, public spending is still showing double digit increases: 15 per cent up in January, driven higher by the rise in benefits to the unemployed.

 

The solution proposed across the G20 is to cut spending. This could give us a second recession which would further push down tax receipts and increase benefits.

 

The recession didnt cause the defecit only make it worse.

 

It was a well known policy to hope that growth will shrink the defecit but you can not just wait and hope while the oustanding debt continues to increase. You get to a tipping point where the interest payments along are such a huge burden that you can no longer do all the good things that governments should be doing with that money (as is the case now).

 

Labour predicted 3% growth for next year prior to the election however it now looks that those figures where way to optimistic so once again the debt rises.

 

The other problem to this plan is that you hope during the good years when the defecit is good, governments would use that money to reduce the overall debt. But what happens, tax cuts and massive public spending.

 

The recession caused the deficit to affect long term lending rates from the bond market. Which is why its an issue. The recession is the issue which is why i quoted the data in the Independent article from february.

 

A deficit is an indicator of the viability of the governments overall debt. It is not an endpoint in itself, thats the debt. The deficit is a marker for the lenders to understand the price they need to charge to allow governments to raise more capital since it is a marker for risk.

 

My point, which you either didn't get or ignored, is that there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that expansionary public spending has a much higher than normal multiplier effect when the real interest rate is near the zero bound.

 

Our only hope is that Clegg's presence will temper the instincts of the tories.

 

Certainly not ignored and I'll not pretend to understand the rest of that sentence either

 

But I may google it.

[ChezGiven 0]

Its funny because the lastest Keynesian models predict that the most effective expansionary policy, when interest rates are effectively zero, is increased government spending. Arguably the situation we are in now. The deficit hawks say to cut spending and encourage the banks to lend. The banks still arent lending but they are cutting anyway. The new Keynesians say

 

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economis...zero-bound.html

 

Its the recession that caused the deficit anyway CT, so the solution is an economic recovery. We shrank by 6%, so we need to grow by 3% for 2 years to be nearly back to where we were on tax revenues (with a debt built up whilst returning to even).

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ce-1904129.html

 

Depressed earnings in the financial sector and the general weakness of the economy conspired to push receipts down by 9 per cent overall compared with last year; income tax takings slumped by 20 per cent, and corporation gains tax revenues fell by 6 per cent. VAT payments were up a little, after the 17.5 per cent rate was restored on 1 January. On the other side of the ledger, public spending is still showing double digit increases: 15 per cent up in January, driven higher by the rise in benefits to the unemployed.

 

The solution proposed across the G20 is to cut spending. This could give us a second recession which would further push down tax receipts and increase benefits.

 

The recession didnt cause the defecit only make it worse.

 

It was a well known policy to hope that growth will shrink the defecit but you can not just wait and hope while the oustanding debt continues to increase. You get to a tipping point where the interest payments along are such a huge burden that you can no longer do all the good things that governments should be doing with that money (as is the case now).

 

Labour predicted 3% growth for next year prior to the election however it now looks that those figures where way to optimistic so once again the debt rises.

 

The other problem to this plan is that you hope during the good years when the defecit is good, governments would use that money to reduce the overall debt. But what happens, tax cuts and massive public spending.

 

The recession caused the deficit to affect long term lending rates from the bond market. Which is why its an issue. The recession is the issue which is why i quoted the data in the Independent article from february.

 

A deficit is an indicator of the viability of the governments overall debt. It is not an endpoint in itself, thats the debt. The deficit is a marker for the lenders to understand the price they need to charge to allow governments to raise more capital since it is a marker for risk.

 

My point, which you either didn't get or ignored, is that there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that expansionary public spending has a much higher than normal multiplier effect when the real interest rate is near the zero bound.

 

Our only hope is that Clegg's presence will temper the instincts of the tories.

 

Certainly not ignored and I'll not pretend to understand the rest of that sentence either

 

But I may google it.

 

Start here.

 

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/24/oy-macro/

[Craig 6700]

PFI is more akin to getting a mortgage than renting, isn't it?

 

Did you buy your house outright CT?

 

 

No its not, its rental / service agreement

 

With the option to take ownership at the end of the contract? So a hire purchase then if you like. (Nearer to a mortgage than rental though in any event).

 

Not saying its a perfect model btw but I think those arguments have been done to death over the past 10 years or so.

 

Spot on Samuel

 

And working for a company who has a great deal of its order book in the PFI sector, I kind of have an inkling as to how it works. CT, I can't see how or why you're trying to argue against this one...

[Christmas Tree 4814]

PFI is more akin to getting a mortgage than renting, isn't it?

 

Did you buy your house outright CT?

 

 

No its not, its rental / service agreement

 

With the option to take ownership at the end of the contract? So a hire purchase then if you like. (Nearer to a mortgage than rental though in any event).

 

Not saying its a perfect model btw but I think those arguments have been done to death over the past 10 years or so.

 

Spot on Samuel

 

And working for a company who has a great deal of its order book in the PFI sector, I kind of have an inkling as to how it works. CT, I can't see how or why you're trying to argue against this one...

 

 

Im not sure which point your making Craig.

 

A pfi for a new hospital or school is more akin to a never ending rental agreement than a mortgage.

 

Nobody seriously expects that after a 25 year pfi agreement has ran out, that the government of the day is then going to take on the costs associated with that hospital or school, they are simply going to renew the agreement which will no doubt include a big refurbishment. Then when the next agreement runs out it will be a whole new school again.

 

If you think its different to this then you will have to be more detailed in your response.

[Tom 14013]

CT is so out of his depth.

 

A great pretender.

[Renton 21967]

Its funny because the lastest Keynesian models predict that the most effective expansionary policy, when interest rates are effectively zero, is increased government spending. Arguably the situation we are in now. The deficit hawks say to cut spending and encourage the banks to lend. The banks still arent lending but they are cutting anyway. The new Keynesians say

 

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economis...zero-bound.html

 

Its the recession that caused the deficit anyway CT, so the solution is an economic recovery. We shrank by 6%, so we need to grow by 3% for 2 years to be nearly back to where we were on tax revenues (with a debt built up whilst returning to even).

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ce-1904129.html

 

Depressed earnings in the financial sector and the general weakness of the economy conspired to push receipts down by 9 per cent overall compared with last year; income tax takings slumped by 20 per cent, and corporation gains tax revenues fell by 6 per cent. VAT payments were up a little, after the 17.5 per cent rate was restored on 1 January. On the other side of the ledger, public spending is still showing double digit increases: 15 per cent up in January, driven higher by the rise in benefits to the unemployed.

 

The solution proposed across the G20 is to cut spending. This could give us a second recession which would further push down tax receipts and increase benefits.

 

The recession didnt cause the defecit only make it worse.

 

It was a well known policy to hope that growth will shrink the defecit but you can not just wait and hope while the oustanding debt continues to increase. You get to a tipping point where the interest payments along are such a huge burden that you can no longer do all the good things that governments should be doing with that money (as is the case now).

 

Labour predicted 3% growth for next year prior to the election however it now looks that those figures where way to optimistic so once again the debt rises.

 

The other problem to this plan is that you hope during the good years when the defecit is good, governments would use that money to reduce the overall debt. But what happens, tax cuts and massive public spending.

 

The recession caused the deficit to affect long term lending rates from the bond market. Which is why its an issue. The recession is the issue which is why i quoted the data in the Independent article from february.

 

A deficit is an indicator of the viability of the governments overall debt. It is not an endpoint in itself, thats the debt. The deficit is a marker for the lenders to understand the price they need to charge to allow governments to raise more capital since it is a marker for risk.

 

My point, which you either didn't get or ignored, is that there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that expansionary public spending has a much higher than normal multiplier effect when the real interest rate is near the zero bound.

 

Our only hope is that Clegg's presence will temper the instincts of the tories.

 

Certainly not ignored and I'll not pretend to understand the rest of that sentence either

 

But I may google it.

 

Which honestly seems to be the extent of your capabiliites in just about any discussion you've been involved with on here.

 

Good luck 'googling' enough information to counter Chez's acquired academic and practical knowledge over the last decade and more Mr Tree.

[Craig 6700]

PFI is more akin to getting a mortgage than renting, isn't it?

 

Did you buy your house outright CT?

 

 

No its not, its rental / service agreement

 

With the option to take ownership at the end of the contract? So a hire purchase then if you like. (Nearer to a mortgage than rental though in any event).

 

Not saying its a perfect model btw but I think those arguments have been done to death over the past 10 years or so.

 

Spot on Samuel

 

And working for a company who has a great deal of its order book in the PFI sector, I kind of have an inkling as to how it works. CT, I can't see how or why you're trying to argue against this one...

 

 

Im not sure which point your making Craig.

 

A pfi for a new hospital or school is more akin to a never ending rental agreement than a mortgage.

 

Nobody seriously expects that after a 25 year pfi agreement has ran out, that the government of the day is then going to take on the costs associated with that hospital or school, they are simply going to renew the agreement which will no doubt include a big refurbishment. Then when the next agreement runs out it will be a whole new school again.

 

If you think its different to this then you will have to be more detailed in your response.

 

Depends upon the contract you're talking about. From what you've posted it appears that you're talking about the FM side of things rather than the specific building costs. We've signed lots of PFI contracts to build and facilitate but the two do not have to go hand in hand - the FM contract can be awarded to anyone - not specifically the building contractor.

 

When the FM contracts expire they are simply re-negotiated as with any maintenance contract. The cost of the structure of the construction of the facility is not dependant solely on the FM contract though.

[Christmas Tree 4814]

CT is so out of his depth.

 

A great pretender.

 

 

Feel free to get involved and back that up......

 

But somehow feel you wont

[Tom 14013]

I'm just browsing in this thread to be honest and I get the impression that's all you should be doing.

 

It seems without the aid of the google and wiki you wouldn't be able to hold a conversion about half the stuff you are arguing about.

 

[Christmas Tree 4814]

Its funny because the lastest Keynesian models predict that the most effective expansionary policy, when interest rates are effectively zero, is increased government spending. Arguably the situation we are in now. The deficit hawks say to cut spending and encourage the banks to lend. The banks still arent lending but they are cutting anyway. The new Keynesians say

 

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economis...zero-bound.html

 

Its the recession that caused the deficit anyway CT, so the solution is an economic recovery. We shrank by 6%, so we need to grow by 3% for 2 years to be nearly back to where we were on tax revenues (with a debt built up whilst returning to even).

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ce-1904129.html

 

Depressed earnings in the financial sector and the general weakness of the economy conspired to push receipts down by 9 per cent overall compared with last year; income tax takings slumped by 20 per cent, and corporation gains tax revenues fell by 6 per cent. VAT payments were up a little, after the 17.5 per cent rate was restored on 1 January. On the other side of the ledger, public spending is still showing double digit increases: 15 per cent up in January, driven higher by the rise in benefits to the unemployed.

 

The solution proposed across the G20 is to cut spending. This could give us a second recession which would further push down tax receipts and increase benefits.

 

The recession didnt cause the defecit only make it worse.

 

It was a well known policy to hope that growth will shrink the defecit but you can not just wait and hope while the oustanding debt continues to increase. You get to a tipping point where the interest payments along are such a huge burden that you can no longer do all the good things that governments should be doing with that money (as is the case now).

 

Labour predicted 3% growth for next year prior to the election however it now looks that those figures where way to optimistic so once again the debt rises.

 

The other problem to this plan is that you hope during the good years when the defecit is good, governments would use that money to reduce the overall debt. But what happens, tax cuts and massive public spending.

 

The recession caused the deficit to affect long term lending rates from the bond market. Which is why its an issue. The recession is the issue which is why i quoted the data in the Independent article from february.

 

A deficit is an indicator of the viability of the governments overall debt. It is not an endpoint in itself, thats the debt. The deficit is a marker for the lenders to understand the price they need to charge to allow governments to raise more capital since it is a marker for risk.

 

My point, which you either didn't get or ignored, is that there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that expansionary public spending has a much higher than normal multiplier effect when the real interest rate is near the zero bound.

 

Our only hope is that Clegg's presence will temper the instincts of the tories.

 

Certainly not ignored and I'll not pretend to understand the rest of that sentence either

 

But I may google it.

 

Which honestly seems to be the extent of your capabiliites in just about any discussion you've been involved with on here.

 

Good luck 'googling' enough information to counter Chez's acquired academic and practical knowledge over the last decade and more Mr Tree.

 

 

Pot kettle....

[ChezGiven 0]

CT is so out of his depth.

 

A great pretender.

 

To be fair to CT, being in opposition is easy. Its easy to knock holes in all aspects of policy, which is why belief in politicians is so important.

[Christmas Tree 4814]

PFI is more akin to getting a mortgage than renting, isn't it?

 

Did you buy your house outright CT?

 

 

No its not, its rental / service agreement

 

With the option to take ownership at the end of the contract? So a hire purchase then if you like. (Nearer to a mortgage than rental though in any event).

 

Not saying its a perfect model btw but I think those arguments have been done to death over the past 10 years or so.

 

Spot on Samuel

 

And working for a company who has a great deal of its order book in the PFI sector, I kind of have an inkling as to how it works. CT, I can't see how or why you're trying to argue against this one...

 

 

Im not sure which point your making Craig.

 

A pfi for a new hospital or school is more akin to a never ending rental agreement than a mortgage.

 

Nobody seriously expects that after a 25 year pfi agreement has ran out, that the government of the day is then going to take on the costs associated with that hospital or school, they are simply going to renew the agreement which will no doubt include a big refurbishment. Then when the next agreement runs out it will be a whole new school again.

 

If you think its different to this then you will have to be more detailed in your response.

 

Depends upon the contract you're talking about. From what you've posted it appears that you're talking about the FM side of things rather than the specific building costs. We've signed lots of PFI contracts to build and facilitate but the two do not have to go hand in hand - the FM contract can be awarded to anyone - not specifically the building contractor.

 

When the FM contracts expire they are simply re-negotiated as with any maintenance contract. The cost of the structure of the construction of the facility is not dependant solely on the FM contract though.

 

 

We were talking about Matts comments that a lot of the National Debt was due to Labour building new schools and hospitals. Which it isnt because the vast majority of them are pfi projects.

 

Keep up with the thread lad.

[Craig 6700]

So why on earth are you arguing the toss that they're rental agreements? That's what I'm replying about...

[Christmas Tree 4814]

I'm just browsing in this thread to be honest and I get the impression that's all you should be doing.

 

It seems without the aid of the google and wiki you wouldn't be able to hold a conversion about half the stuff you are arguing about.

 

 

 

Thought as much.

[Christmas Tree 4814]

So why on earth are you arguing the toss that they're rental agreements? That's what I'm replying about...

 

 

Honestly thread hoppers who skip through.....

 

Because Renton raced in to either be contrary or to defend Labour / Pfi saying that they were like a mortgage because we would own the buildings at the end of the 25 year period.

 

While there may be some truth in possible ownership, everyone connected with PFI's realise that these will always just be renewed contracts going forward whether for original building, refurbishment and maintenance.

 

Its a bit like the government giving council estates away because they dont want the expense of running them.

 

Rentons glimmer of hope is that at the end of the deal it will have been worth it cause the mortgage is paid off and we own the goods.

 

Its the never never all the way...... (Brought in my Conservatives I might objectively add )

 

But ........ We were discussing the defecit, something we will here a lot about tomorrow from the PM. All sounds very bleak.

[Christmas Tree 4814]

Its funny because the lastest Keynesian models predict that the most effective expansionary policy, when interest rates are effectively zero, is increased government spending. Arguably the situation we are in now. The deficit hawks say to cut spending and encourage the banks to lend. The banks still arent lending but they are cutting anyway. The new Keynesians say

 

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economis...zero-bound.html

 

Its the recession that caused the deficit anyway CT, so the solution is an economic recovery. We shrank by 6%, so we need to grow by 3% for 2 years to be nearly back to where we were on tax revenues (with a debt built up whilst returning to even).

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...ce-1904129.html

 

Depressed earnings in the financial sector and the general weakness of the economy conspired to push receipts down by 9 per cent overall compared with last year; income tax takings slumped by 20 per cent, and corporation gains tax revenues fell by 6 per cent. VAT payments were up a little, after the 17.5 per cent rate was restored on 1 January. On the other side of the ledger, public spending is still showing double digit increases: 15 per cent up in January, driven higher by the rise in benefits to the unemployed.

 

The solution proposed across the G20 is to cut spending. This could give us a second recession which would further push down tax receipts and increase benefits.

 

The recession didnt cause the defecit only make it worse.

 

It was a well known policy to hope that growth will shrink the defecit but you can not just wait and hope while the oustanding debt continues to increase. You get to a tipping point where the interest payments along are such a huge burden that you can no longer do all the good things that governments should be doing with that money (as is the case now).

 

Labour predicted 3% growth for next year prior to the election however it now looks that those figures where way to optimistic so once again the debt rises.

 

The other problem to this plan is that you hope during the good years when the defecit is good, governments would use that money to reduce the overall debt. But what happens, tax cuts and massive public spending.

 

The recession caused the deficit to affect long term lending rates from the bond market. Which is why its an issue. The recession is the issue which is why i quoted the data in the Independent article from february.

 

A deficit is an indicator of the viability of the governments overall debt. It is not an endpoint in itself, thats the debt. The deficit is a marker for the lenders to understand the price they need to charge to allow governments to raise more capital since it is a marker for risk.

 

My point, which you either didn't get or ignored, is that there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that expansionary public spending has a much higher than normal multiplier effect when the real interest rate is near the zero bound.

 

Our only hope is that Clegg's presence will temper the instincts of the tories.

 

Certainly not ignored and I'll not pretend to understand the rest of that sentence either

 

But I may google it.

 

Start here.

 

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/24/oy-macro/

 

 

Thanks for that. Tried, crashed and burned.

 

I do appreciate there are lots of factors at work here and also lots of possible theories on what should be done and what will work.

 

I understand the idea of trying to catch an "upturn wave" that will reduce benefits and increase taxes however that is dependent on good growth and I guess the crux of the debates going on at the moment are based on growth forecasts.

 

On the one hand you seem to have a body of people who think the growth will come and we will be okay, while at the same time there are those who cant see signifigant growth ahead and therefore feel more drastic action is required now.

 

All the indications that I hear about seem to be heading towards poor growth.

 

I really cant see where the next "boom" is coming from, particularly with the banks reluctance to lend.

[Happy Face 29]

Which honestly seems to be the extent of your capabiliites in just about any discussion you've been involved with on here.

 

Good luck 'googling' enough information to counter Chez's acquired academic and practical knowledge over the last decade and more Mr Tree.

 

I think that's the best thing about a place like this. Some people might ignore subjects unless they feel versed in them to a professional standard, but if I find a topic interesting I'll always google it and try to get involved, even if i have no clue (more often than not) cos that's how you learn more about it.

 

I've learned shitloads from the sites I'd never otherwise visit unless it was to counter someone or other on here.

 

To be fair to him, CT is one of the few posters willing to admit he's not sure about something and I don't think the threads where he's a lone WUM ever spiral into the bunfights previous wum's have descended to.