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Christmas Tree
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1 hour ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

No one is worried about a tiny amount of smuggling across a very open border. It will just be dealt with by police rather than customs.

 

As people see that Brexit has happened and the world hasn’t stopped, investment in the U.K. is growing, the economy is rising and the New Tory PM is splashing preelection bribes around, nobody will want to revisit EU membership.

 

Its over.

Literally every sentence of that reply is complete bullshit and completely unsourced.

 

Honestly, what do you get out of this wumming on a serious thread? I'm genuinely interested in debate but the only counter viewpoints we get are from wumming tit heads. :doh:

 

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3 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

No one is worried about a tiny amount of smuggling across a very open border.

I think you'll find that's a key area of concern.

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12 hours ago, Renton said:

 

No reason they can't demand budgetary contributions and FOM during the transition, in fact I thought this was pretty much agreed. We're in no position to say no. 

Transition has been agreed.

Both sides are currently negotiating the Withdrawal Agreement, the Trade Agreement comes later. Agreeing to a backstop that includes the entire UK would tie the EU to essentially allowing the UK access to the SM without clearly defined requirements of what the UK would have to contribute and allow. Again, those talks come much later.

So the EU aren't going to have their hands tied prior to trade talks with the UK knowing that if trade talks fail then they still have access to the SM no matter what.

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1 hour ago, ewerk said:

Transition has been agreed.

Both sides are currently negotiating the Withdrawal Agreement, the Trade Agreement comes later. Agreeing to a backstop that includes the entire UK would tie the EU to essentially allowing the UK access to the SM without clearly defined requirements of what the UK would have to contribute and allow. Again, those talks come much later.

So the EU aren't going to have their hands tied prior to trade talks with the UK knowing that if trade talks fail then they still have access to the SM no matter what.

 

The transition is provisional on the withdrawal agreement, which is not agreed though. It could well fall through at the June summit next month unless all stakeholders, most notably the RoI, are happy that satisfactory progress has been made on the border. The answer to this is a resounding no, no progress has been made. I expect the can to be kicked into October, but it's not certain. And I also expect no resolution by October.

 

At some stage, there will be a crisis. Coveney said recently he'd prefer this to be sooner rather than later, and I can see the logic in this. I'd not be surprised if the crisis is next month and the EU cancel the transition offer to focus our minds on a solution that works, which at a minimum is staying de facto in SM permanently and the CU for the foreseeable. We will certainly need to pay for on going access. 

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Yeah, I meant that it has been agreed in the draft agreement.

I agree with your pessimism that this could come to a head in June. The EU have already ruled out options A and B that the UK are persisting with and the new agreed backstop will also be unacceptable to the EU. So basically the UK is coming to the table with three options that they know won't fly.

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Households are £900 worse off because of Brexit according to the BOE. Well played. 

 

CT I'll save you the bother of saying "oh the same BoE that predicted a recession" by preemptively telling you to fuck off. 

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5 minutes ago, ewerk said:

What price freedom?

A serious reining in of metal-detecting and other ludicrously boring and expensive hobbies

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That is more than three times the cost of EU membership! (128 pounds net per capita per year, average 2.3 people per household). 

 

Give me back my money CT you utter cunt. 

Edited by Renton
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16 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Who is they? The PLP wont be spoiling for that fight again.

 

The serious people behind the curtain who call the shots and want power. Part of the Tories success is that they can be ruthless in changing their leader.

 

Corbyn was a novelty at the time, rode the success of the “moneytree” manifesto but was pretty unpopular prior to the manifesto launch and is still fairly unpopular against the Maybot still.

 

They should give him a party chairman type role and let a fresh face loose on May.

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Yeah but the leader is voted by members. So whoever the 'power behind the throne' is, they have to convince the membership to vote for someone else.

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2 hours ago, Rayvin said:

Yeah but the leader is voted by members. So whoever the 'power behind the throne' is, they have to convince the membership to vote for someone else.

 

No, the men in grey suits come to visit and tell Jezza “its time to move over, for the good of the cause”.  

 

Surely you dont think the Corbyn / McDonnell ticket will still be around in 4 years time?

 

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3 hours ago, Christmas Tree said:

 

The serious people behind the curtain who call the shots and want power. Part of the Tories success is that they can be ruthless in changing their leader.

 

Corbyn was a novelty at the time, rode the success of the “moneytree” manifesto but was pretty unpopular prior to the manifesto launch and is still fairly unpopular against the Maybot still.

 

They should give him a party chairman type role and let a fresh face loose on May.

About a week ago you reckoned Momentum were running the show. 

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6 hours ago, Alex said:

About a week ago you reckoned Momentum were running the show. 

 

Thats the sort of people I’m talking about. People like John Lansman of Momentum and the unions. These are the people who shored Corbyn up when he wanted to quit two years ago and are the people who will eventually tap him on the shoulder.

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Happy 30th anniversary of Section 28, everybody. :good:

 

https://www.buzzfeed.com/patrickstrudwick/30-years-ago-today-teachers-were-banned-from-mentioning?utm_term=.ndExJ0XxG#.ueDkYP6kM

 

(Good piece for the most part, though it strikes me that a lot of what he calls for in terms of education - about feelings, emotions, boundaries, rights - was also completely absent from hetero-only sex education/PSE when I was at school. Do kids learn about any of that stuff nowadays or is it still just bodily functions and that's your lot?)

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