Politics

[Rayvin 5339]

Fairly sure UKip is and will always be too toxic a brand to get many MPs FPTP. Plus their name even makes no sense now. When you were comparing them with the SNP post referendum CT, did you forget the SNP didn't achieve their aim?

 

There will be a large void in politics once Corbyn wins and the labour party ceases to exist as an opposition party. It won't be a UKip shaped hole though. It will be centrist left with scope from most Labour voters (not members), the SNP, liberal democrats, and even a fair few disgruntled wet conservatives to vote for it. Imo the majority of the electorate who usually actually bother to vote haven't really got a party to vote for at the moment. It'll be interesting to see if this group can be represented at some point. UKip is fucked though imo.

 

I think this is probably about right, but I think that group of centrist voters is going to be smaller than you might expect. The Tories are going to be the hegemonic party after this and I don't see much changing on that front until a few years down the line when they have no one but themselves to blame for the post-Brexit problems and widespread disillusionment that will follow.

 

Labour needs to be in position for when that happens, and it needs to be a fucking alternative for the first time in decades. Hopefully it will be. The centre hasn't solved anything as far as I can see. It's delayed things, but the numbers of people left behind is getting too large now.

Edited September 21, 2016 by Rayvin

[Kevin Carr's Gloves 3998]

Reckon UKIP will probably still have just the 1 MP after the next election.

 

The scientist?

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/douglas-carswell-tides-ukip-experts-science-mp-a7318461.html 

[Christmas Tree 4858]

Fairly sure UKip is and will always be too toxic a brand to get many MPs FPTP. Plus their name even makes no sense now. When you were comparing them with the SNP post referendum CT, did you forget the SNP didn't achieve their aim?

 

There will be a large void in politics once Corbyn wins and the labour party ceases to exist as an opposition party. It won't be a UKip shaped hole though. It will be centrist left with scope from most Labour voters (not members), the SNP, liberal democrats, and even a fair few disgruntled wet conservatives to vote for it. Imo the majority of the electorate who usually actually bother to vote haven't really got a party to vote for at the moment. It'll be interesting to see if this group can be represented at some point. UKip is fucked though imo.

I think your way wrong about UKIP. Labour got 232 MP's from 9 million votes, UKIP got 1 from nearly 4 million votes.

 

It really all depends how they unite under there new leader, but make no mistake, they are going to do a momentum social media job with there vote leave database.

 

As for the SNP comparison, they lost but the mood swing and growth in activists was unstoppable. UKIP has a very similar opportunity there for the taking and 4 years to utilise it. Brexit is going to be the key political topic for the next 4 years, particularly what type of Brexit, so plenty to keep the ukippers interested.

 

Whether they pull it off remains to be seen, but all guns are going to be on Labour heartlands.

[ewerk 31237]

I think your way wrong about UKIP. Labour got 232 MP's from 9 million votes, UKIP got 1 from nearly 4 million votes.

 

It really all depends how they unite under there new leader, but make no mistake, they are going to do a momentum social media job with there vote leave database.

 

As for the SNP comparison, they lost but the mood swing and growth in activists was unstoppable. UKIP has a very similar opportunity there for the taking and 4 years to utilise it. Brexit is going to be the key political topic for the next 4 years, particularly what type of Brexit, so plenty to keep the ukippers interested.

 

Whether they pull it off remains to be seen, but all guns are going to be on Labour heartlands.

 

UKIP are predicted to lose votes based on opinion polls. Your predictions are being pulled out of your arse.

[Rayvin 5339]

I think your way wrong about UKIP. Labour got 232 MP's from 9 million votes, UKIP got 1 from nearly 4 million votes.

 

It really all depends how they unite under there new leader, but make no mistake, they are going to do a momentum social media job with there vote leave database.

 

 

Actually think CT is right about this point; they could certainly reach out to those voters more effectively than they have been previously. The crux here though is the extent to which the voter base who voted for Brexit are racist idiots. And on that basis, we might be in trouble.

 

UKIP have no vision or future for the country, but that won't stop people voting for them. As I say, the centreground is in trouble - caught between the 'hard' lefts and 'hard' rights.

[Dr Gloom 22193]

They got a good share of the popular vote but they've no chance in a first past the post electoral system, thank god. One the few good thinks about not having PR in this country.

[Rayvin 5339]

They got a good share of the popular vote but they've no chance in a first past the post electoral system, thank god. One the few good thinks about not having PR in this country.

 

Also true. Unless Labour haemorrhage votes to them. I think this is less likely under Corbyn than under Smith and the PLP establishment but what the fuck do I know.

[Christmas Tree 4858]

UKIP are predicted to lose votes based on opinion polls. Your predictions are being pulled out of your arse.

Polls didn't predict an SNP landslide 4 years before the event. Not a Tory majority win last year, nor a Brexit.

 

The point is Labours disarray and UKIP's Brexit momentum throw the whole thing up in the air.

 

IF, they take advantage of everything st their disposal then they will romp home in many a labour seat.

 

In 2010 they came second nowhere, last year they came second in a 120 seats.

 

Momentum dear boy, momentum.

[Christmas Tree 4858]

Actually think CT is right about this point; they could certainly reach out to those voters more effectively than they have been previously. The crux here though is the extent to which the voter base who voted for Brexit are racist idiots. And on that basis, we might be in trouble.

 

UKIP have no vision or future for the country, but that won't stop people voting for them. As I say, the centreground is in trouble - caught between the 'hard' lefts and 'hard' rights.

Don't forget 37% of labour voters voted to leave the EU. That sort of defection to UKIP at a general election would virtually wipe the Labour Party out.

[Christmas Tree 4858]

They got a good share of the popular vote but they've no chance in a first past the post electoral system, thank god. One the few good thinks about not having PR in this country.

They are second place in 120 seats. How have they got "no chance".

[Christmas Tree 4858]

Also true. Unless Labour haemorrhage votes to them. I think this is less likely under Corbyn than under Smith and the PLP establishment but what the fuck do I know.

If you had to bet your mortgage on one of these scenarios.

 

1. Corbyn wins, unites the party, peace breaks out and labour becomes a strong opposition.

 

2. UKIP becomes more professional, makes good use of its vote leave victory and database and puts together a popular manifesto (like the lib Dems, knowing fine well they won't have to implement any of them).

[Rayvin 5339]

Don't forget 37% of labour voters voted to leave the EU. That sort of defection to UKIP at a general election would virtually wipe the Labour Party out.

 

I agree - I said Labour was finished as an electoral force as soon as the referendum result was in. Corbyn or no.

 

This isn't about political parties anymore IMO, it's about the whole political ideology.

[Rayvin 5339]

If you had to bet your mortgage on one of these scenarios.

 

1. Corbyn wins, unites the party, peace breaks out and labour becomes a strong opposition.

 

2. UKIP becomes more professional, makes good use of its vote leave victory and database and puts together a popular manifesto (like the lib Dems, knowing fine well they won't have to implement any of them).

 

I don't think it's an either/or scenario mate. I suspect both are unlikely.

 

Though if I HAD to bet, I'd bet on racist stupidity. Every time.

Edited September 21, 2016 by Rayvin

[Christmas Tree 4858]

I agree - I said Labour was finished as an electoral force as soon as the referendum result was in. Corbyn or no.

 

This isn't about political parties anymore IMO, it's about the whole political ideology.

The whole country has been moving right for a long time. That's not going to change in my lifetime.

[Renton 22038]

They've got no chance because:

- Their only remit has been achieved.

- They have no political talent in their party and no hope of attracting any.

- They have no policies and their previous manifestos have been pure doolally stuff.

- For the large majority of people, they are seen as utterly toxic. They have only ever done well as a protest vote. There's no sense in that now.

- The conservative party has gone so far right they've been squeezed out of that margin.

 

So come on CT, name some brilliant emerging UKip politicians and tell me, other than Brexit, bigotry, and racism, what their policies actually are? In fact where are they even on the political spectrum? They'll not even exist in 5 years man.

[Rayvin 5339]

The whole country has been moving right for a long time. That's not going to change in my lifetime.

 

I think wealth inequality will become a bigger issue - the right will choke on it eventually. When people clear out the immigrants, when there's no one to blame but the people actually at fault, it'll be the left that takes hold.

 

The big danger of Brexit for big business and the Tories I reckon is that it exposes them to the judgement of the masses. They have literally nothing to hide behind now. We'll see now if it really was 'all the EU's fault'. I don't think people will forget that it was right wing politics that brought us here.

[Renton 22038]

Don't forget 37% of labour voters voted to leave the EU. That sort of defection to UKIP at a general election would virtually wipe the Labour Party out.

Which of course means 63% voted to remain. And these people are joining UKip?

[Meenzer 15742]

If you had to bet your mortgage on one of these scenarios.

 

1. Corbyn wins, unites the party, peace breaks out and labour becomes a strong opposition.

 

2. UKIP becomes more professional, makes good use of its vote leave victory and database and puts together a popular manifesto (like the lib Dems, knowing fine well they won't have to implement any of them).

 

What is a "mortgage"?

[Alex 35664]

Only CT could argue a party polling lower than it was in 2010 despite having achieved what it was set up for is gaining momentum

[Dr Gloom 22193]

They've got no chance because:

- Their only remit has been achieved.

- They have no political talent in their party and no hope of attracting any.

- They have no policies and their previous manifestos have been pure doolally stuff.

- For the large majority of people, they are seen as utterly toxic. They have only ever done well as a protest vote. There's no sense in that now.

- The conservative party has gone so far right they've been squeezed out of that margin.

 

So come on CT, name some brilliant emerging UKip politicians and tell me, other than Brexit, bigotry, and racism, what their policies actually are? In fact where are they even on the political spectrum? They'll not even exist in 5 years man.

 

i was going to answer but Renton saved me the bother. 

 

CT - care to name any of the many seats which UKIP will manage to usurp Labour from then?

[Alex 35664]

Roughly how many seats do you think UKIP will win at the next election, CT?

[Rayvin 5339]

To be fair, CT's argument is that the data UKIP have secured as a result of the referendum will allow them to target people, voters who might be swayed by their nonsense, in a much more efficient way than previously. It'll also allow them to get a better picture of what those voters are asking for.

 

Yes they'd need to be smart about it. Yes they probably aren't capable of that.

 

But his point, and perhaps I'm being generous here, is that the potential exists.

[Alex 35664]

To be fair, CT's argument is that the data UKIP have secured as a result of the referendum will allow them to target people, voters who might be swayed by their nonsense, in a much more efficient way than previously. It'll also allow them to get a better picture of what those voters are asking for.

 

Yes they'd need to be smart about it. Yes they probably aren't capable of that.

 

But his point, and perhaps I'm being generous here, is that the potential exists.

No it isn't. His point is it's a done deal due to those rather tenuous set of reasons.

He'll now argue that was his point though, or he would've done had I not just predicted he would.

[Renton 22038]

To be fair, CT's argument is that the data UKIP have secured as a result of the referendum will allow them to target people, voters who might be swayed by their nonsense, in a much more efficient way than previously. It'll also allow them to get a better picture of what those voters are asking for.

 

Yes they'd need to be smart about it. Yes they probably aren't capable of that.

 

But his point, and perhaps I'm being generous here, is that the potential exists.

What data are you referring to? Does UKip have access to individual person data the other parties don't? Howay man.

[Dr Gloom 22193]

meanwhile, UKIP's sole MP continues to do a brilliant job at convincing the electorate at large that they're not a bunch of loonies

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/douglas-carswell-tides-ukip-experts-science-mp-a7318461.html

Edited September 21, 2016 by Dr Gloom