Politics

[Gemmill 44556]

If I was him btw, I'd resign on Friday. I wouldn't listen to any of this shit about he needs to do 6 months for the good of the party, etc. The party has been on manoeuvres against him since he got the job, I think he owes them fuck all. 

 

I'd be off to my mansion and my pool in California, flying this Saturday. 

 

This is assuming that the voters in his constituency don't make the decision for him, which would be sensational.

 

[Dazzler 9556]

24 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

If I was him btw, I'd resign on Friday. I wouldn't listen to any of this shit about he needs to do 6 months for the good of the party, etc. The party has been on manoeuvres against him since he got the job, I think he owes them fuck all. 

 

I'd be off to my mansion and my pool in California, flying this Saturday. 

 

This is assuming that the voters in his constituency don't make the decision for him, which would be sensational.

 

He’ll be the latest Tory to defect to labour on Friday and starmer will fuck him off

[Alex 34952]

He’s predicted to narrowly win his seat atm. 

[Gemmill 44556]

26 minutes ago, Alex said:

He’s predicted to narrowly win his seat atm. 

 

They're obviously worried about it, cos he's skipped all the hustings so far, then at the back end of last week his team requested a behind closed doors hustings, then pulled the request - presumably cos they realised they'd look weak - after other parties had agreed. 

[Alex 34952]

Just now, Gemmill said:

 

They're obviously worried about it, cos he's skipped all the hustings so far, then at the back end of last week his team requested a behind closed doors hustings, then pulled the request - presumably cos they realised they'd look weak - after other parties had agreed. 

Yeah, if you look at the polling he’s just ahead of Labour. Reform are polling around 15% but, probably more significantly, the Lib Dems and the Greens account for about the same share of the vote, on about 10 and 5% respectively. It would only take a small portion of those to vote tactically for Labour for him to lose by the looks of it. 

[Gemmill 44556]

I reckon if there's gonna be a surprise of the night, it might be that Reform end up with a higher vote share than we're all expecting. I don't think it'll do much for them in terms of seats, but if there's Russian money pushing them in certain parts of the Internet that we won't see, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of a Brexit effect where there's a last minute bloat in their vote. 

[Holden McGroin 6549]

17 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

I reckon if there's gonna be a surprise of the night, it might be that Reform end up with a higher vote share than we're all expecting. I don't think it'll do much for them in terms of seats, but if there's Russian money pushing them in certain parts of the Internet that we won't see, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of a Brexit effect where there's a last minute bloat in their vote. 

 

Yeah. That’s my feeling as well. I think a lot of deserting Tories will vote Reform rather than the other parties. 

[Alex 34952]

Aye. From the knackers who ‘do their own research’, ie have their prejudices reinforced by targeted facebook propaganda 

[Holden McGroin 6549]

10 minutes ago, Alex said:

Aye. From the knackers who ‘do their own research’, ie have their prejudices reinforced by targeted facebook propaganda 

Trev and Gary will be quoting their shit down the boozer.

 

Reform suggest simple solutions to complex questions and the chin dribblers believe it.

 

Aye Nigel, you try and take back the immigrants to France with a couple of Royal Marines. That will work out nicely for everyone. 

Edited July 1 by Holden McGroin

[Gemmill 44556]

9 minutes ago, Holden McGroin said:

 

Yeah. That’s my feeling as well. I think a lot of deserting Tories will vote Reform rather than the other parties. 

 

I think there might be some Con 19 - > Labour switchers who switch to Reform at the last minute. 

 

I follow all the gimps who delve into the data tables when polls come out, and so far the vast majority of the drop in the Tory vote share has gone to reform, and the vast majority of the drop in Labour vote share is being attributed to tactical voting. But the last couple of days they've started second guessing themselves and wondering about Lab to Reform - they reckon it's small, but it might be there.

 

We'll know soon enough! 

[PaddockLad 17151]

As some are saying I think support for the tories down here has fallen off a cliff and a lot of those votes are going to Reform as well as Labour.  The Labour candidate seems a good sort but has been verbally abused during the campaign . Lib Dem’s aren’t making any real impact. It’s very tight 😬

 

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/24416228.poole-labour-candidate-calls-others-denounce-hate-campaign/?ref=rss
 

 

 

 

 

[Alex 34952]

7 minutes ago, Holden McGroin said:

Trev and Gary will be quoting their shit down the boozer.

 

Reform suggest simple solutions to complex questions and the chin dribblers believe it.

 

Aye Nigel, you try and take back the immigrants to France with a couple of Royal Marines. That will work out nicely for everyone. 

It’s like people just forget he lied to them about Brexit 

[Holden McGroin 6549]

1 minute ago, Alex said:

It’s like people just forget he lied to them about Brexit 

I think they’ve swallowed the: “Brexit was a great idea, but the Tories have completely mismanaged it” line.

[Gemmill 44556]

https://open.substack.com/pub/dividinglines/p/into-injury-time?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=172gw

 

This is decent. Dismantled a Tory broadcast where they tried to link the current choice facing voters to football..... and failed spectacularly. 

[Alex 34952]

11 minutes ago, Holden McGroin said:

I think they’ve swallowed the: “Brexit was a great idea, but the Tories have completely mismanaged it” line.

Aye. It’s such obvious bullshit like but I think you’re right. Some people just like the way he’s a massive racist. Because they are too

[Gemmill 44556]

2 hours ago, Gemmill said:

Some chat about Macron's party and the far left party (who came second) coming up with some sort of arrangement before the second round. 

 

I don't understand how French politics works, so don't know how they would do it, but hopefully they can sort something. 

 

Right, so the second round of voting is expected to result in a load of three way runoff, possibly in as man as 315 of the 577 seats. 

 

This would be between Le Pen, the far left party, and Macron's party. 

 

So Macron and the far left could either stand down candidates in the run-offs, or encourage their voters to side with the other lot to block Le Pen from achieving a majority. 

 

Loads of caveats cos the two parties that are now being expected to work together actually despise one another, AND it's actually the far left and not Macron's lot that came second in the first round, and are therefore in the ascendancy. 

 

So they might just think, actually we'll take our 160+ seats that we're projected to win, and just let this play out without any deals. 

[Alex 34952]

Yeah, I think it works like the presidential election but down at the level of what are in effect constituencies. Ie you win by getting over 50% or have a run off until that happens or you’re down to two candidates (the candidate with the lowest vote dropping out ahead of the next round).  Then a winner emerges who is, in effect, endorsed by over half those who voted. Then the president chooses a PM from the largest party in the lower house. This election is only for seats in the lower house I think. It’s a bit like our system where the lower house has most of the power. But the difference is their senate / upper house is elected too I think. 

Edited July 1 by Alex

[Dazzler 9556]

1 hour ago, Gemmill said:

I reckon if there's gonna be a surprise of the night, it might be that Reform end up with a higher vote share than we're all expecting. I don't think it'll do much for them in terms of seats, but if there's Russian money pushing them in certain parts of the Internet that we won't see, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of a Brexit effect where there's a last minute bloat in their vote. 

Doesn’t all that really achieve is to make the Lib Dems the opposition? Probably not the worst result in reality, having Davey keep Starmer to the left and answering difficult questions on social care.

[Gemmill 44556]

5 minutes ago, Dazzler said:

Doesn’t all that really achieve is to make the Lib Dems the opposition? Probably not the worst result in reality, having Davey keep Starmer to the left and answering difficult questions on social care.

 

Not if Labour have lost some votes to Reform, might cost them the odd seat in the Red Wall or something like that. 

 

I'd love to see the Tories obliterated to the extent that Davey is LOTO, but it just seems too much to hope for. 

[Gemmill 44556]

 

 

 

Going all out for this LOTO.

 

 

[Toonpack 9314]

9 hours ago, Renton said:

New series on Netflix on the rise of Hitler. Biggest message to me is we never learn.

 

Read Shirers book, we're on track with the blueprint. Posted as much on Fb around brexit time, were a canny few more pages in now.

[ewerk 30393]

2 hours ago, Gemmill said:

I reckon if there's gonna be a surprise of the night, it might be that Reform end up with a higher vote share than we're all expecting. I don't think it'll do much for them in terms of seats, but if there's Russian money pushing them in certain parts of the Internet that we won't see, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of a Brexit effect where there's a last minute bloat in their vote. 

 

This is currently the Daily Mail website  

 

[Gemmill 44556]

It was like that with Labour colours at the start of the weekend. They'll take anyone's money. 

[Renton 21432]

2 hours ago, Gemmill said:

I reckon if there's gonna be a surprise of the night, it might be that Reform end up with a higher vote share than we're all expecting. I don't think it'll do much for them in terms of seats, but if there's Russian money pushing them in certain parts of the Internet that we won't see, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of a Brexit effect where there's a last minute bloat in their vote. 

 

Fwiw I think the opposite will happen, I think Reform will under perform and Farage will lose in Clacton. He's been performing terribly when anyone questions him on policy and he is now exposed as a literal traitor. I bet there are more scandals ahead too. Obviously in FPTP you're going  to realistically need 30% plus in any individual seat to be elected. I just don't think there are that many morons/facists/racists in any individual seat, even Clacton. As you say, we'll soon find out.  

[Renton 21432]

Cunt being a cunt.