Renton 21400 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Rayvin said: So the interpretation of today's results by the BBC's election guru has Labour 20 seats short of a majority come the GE. Honestly I thought Labour were further along than that, wasn't polling north of 40%? If it's not a majority, who do they get into bed with? I don't think you can take anything from these elections, another reason I'm not arsed. Lib Dems aren't going to get 20% in a GE, and Green and independents also fair much worse because of our wonderful FTP and tactical voting (voting Labour whilst biting your lip). It's Labour's best showing in local elections for quarter of a century, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howmanheyman 32842 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 46 minutes ago, Isegrim said: They've already caused the damage they were paid to do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJS 4375 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 36 minutes ago, Kid Dynamite said: People probably figured there's not much point in a UK Independence Party now that there's an independent UK Or since all their policies and worse are now tory party policies. Of course a lot of their members also directly joined the tories. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44525 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Thread 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rayvin 5187 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 Good thread. Explains it better. Also seems to make clear that we're having our "anyone but trump" moment. Fully deserved for the Tories. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJS 4375 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 It would be funny as fuck if people pissed off with Starmer's shift right voting Green cost him a majority then he was forced to work with them or the lib dems. Thing is I think it would only take a relatively mild set of policies to reverse that effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21400 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 (edited) 58 minutes ago, NJS said: It would be funny as fuck if people pissed off with Starmer's shift right voting Green cost him a majority then he was forced to work with them or the lib dems. Thing is I think it would only take a relatively mild set of policies to reverse that effect. That's not the point being made though is it? It's not Starmers shift right that's the LDs/Greens are benefitting from, it's the ubiquity of the hatred for the tories. I'd love a coalition but can't see anything but a 97 level majority for Labour, with LDs picking up a few seats. There's nothing the tories can do to stop this now imo, cos everything is getting increasingly shit. Edited May 5, 2023 by Renton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJS 4375 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 I think it'll narrow as it gets nearer - it's only last year they broached 50% but now it's down to a "normal" winning lead of 36 to 42 roughly. There is a lot of anti-tory sentiment I agree but if people aren't positively drawn to Labour they'll look at alternatives. They have done a reasonable job of regaining support from the red wall but in other areas they aren't doing as well - I think that's more likely to be people like us who aren't convinced that they want to really change anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isegrim 9740 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 2 hours ago, Howmanheyman said: They've already caused the damage they were paid to do. They were alway a single policy party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21400 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 24 minutes ago, NJS said: I think it'll narrow as it gets nearer - it's only last year they broached 50% but now it's down to a "normal" winning lead of 36 to 42 roughly. There is a lot of anti-tory sentiment I agree but if people aren't positively drawn to Labour they'll look at alternatives. They have done a reasonable job of regaining support from the red wall but in other areas they aren't doing as well - I think that's more likely to be people like us who aren't convinced that they want to really change anything. But that's the point, it will be a pincer movement annihilating the tories. Only Labour will benefit from the SNP's fall in Scotland, its fanciful to think Labour won't achieve a large majority as the author from that thread says. If the tories go below 200 seats ( I think they'll go lower personally), the main beneficiaries will be Labour, mopping up Scotland, Northern England, the Midlands, and London. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Dynamite 7011 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 I see the EU have passed a law saying it's ok to test makeup on animals again. Finally! A benefit of sovereignty! A stupid law we can ignore..... except the UK government has taken it to the courts to make sure we can test makeup on animals too 👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkeys Fist 42138 Posted May 5, 2023 Share Posted May 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Isegrim said: They were alway a single policy party Aye, and it had nowt to do with “Independence”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Gloom 21850 Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 12 hours ago, NJS said: It would be funny as fuck if people pissed off with Starmer's shift right voting Green cost him a majority then he was forced to work with them or the lib dems. Thing is I think it would only take a relatively mild set of policies to reverse that effect. a progressive coalition wouldn’t be the worst result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30382 Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 The price of Lib Dem support would almost certainly be electoral reform. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 34931 Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 16 hours ago, Monkeys Fist said: Aye, and it had nowt to do with “Independence”. They’re independent from Russian funding now 👍🏻 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21400 Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 (edited) 27 minutes ago, ewerk said: The price of Lib Dem support would almost certainly be electoral reform. Yeah, they cut such a hard deal on that with the tories last time. It's fantasy anyway imo, I just can't see the arithmetic for it. Edited May 6, 2023 by Renton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wykikitoon 19985 Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 There's a village near me I cycle through a lot. I also have friends who. Live there. They're labour and hate the Tories. It's been a Tory strong hold for decades. Every time me and a mate cycle through he always slags it off and calls it a Tory cunt hole. Yesterday the Green Party took it. He's a big environmentalist and he's still not happy about it 🤣 🤣 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30382 Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 Sounds like your soulmate tbh. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wykikitoon 19985 Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 🤣 I asked for that. He's well into his architecture and there's a housing estate built by a typical mass house builder. Bit of a soulless etstae and given where it is people pay a large whack for the houses. That pisses him off more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30382 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 On 05/05/2023 at 18:24, Alex said: I think electoral calculus still has them with a majority close to 200. Based on a months polling and updated at the beginning of May. I’d trust them more. Even if Gemmill’s right and that’s excluding Scotland that doesn’t sound right. Also, isn’t this election council seats which were last contested in May 2019? Where the Tories performed badly in the last days of May as PM? So they’ve lost something like 700 council seats on top of a bad starting point? I’m going to suggest the BBC might be painting a less than realistic picture It wasn’t just the BBC though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex 34931 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 So-called analyst 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21400 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, ewerk said: It wasn’t just the BBC though. It's difficult to understand his analysis from that clip. Ultimately though, voting is about the economy. You ask any economist, and we haven't seen the worst of the cost of living crisis or recession yet (I realise we're about 0.1% short of a technical recession). Things are going to get worse, not better, before a GE. So add this into other factors such as tory infighting, tactical voting, Scotland, the point Alex made about this result being on top of a low water mark, and I think he's talking shit personally. He looks like a smug tory cunt too. Edited May 7, 2023 by Renton 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmill 44525 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 They're like Sky Sports. They need to pretend the title race is still going long after it's finished. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewerk 30382 Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Renton 21400 Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 (edited) That's like me saying I have ruled out having sex with Scarlett Johansson*. I haven't really Scarlett pet, if you're reading this. Edited May 10, 2023 by Renton 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now