Politics

[Rayvin 5189]

Just now, scoobos said:

And whilst a lot of this is correct, especially about residents of Bejing - it begs the question, have you visited yet?

Most Chinese dont give a damn about the international situation.

no ones saying its "benign" and using labels like "the left" shows that something to maintain the status quo of neo-liberalism, "acceptable war" , and the continued expansion of late state capitalism - is working.

No war should be acceptable unless you are defending yourself . We've faught wars for "democracy, peoples freedoms" etc and its all been bullshit - its money and resources every single time.

 

Have I visited China? I lived there for a year about a decade back. Haven't been back since 2015 though.

 

If we fight a war for the Ukraine, is that not justified? In that we'll be helping them defend themselves?

[scoobos 298]

Apologies for making the assumption, its just the talking of China like its a single country in real terms, is like saying the same for Canada - it's almost a federation with the differences in opinions from the rural to city. (Cannibalism during the cultural revolution is still justified in some peoples minds that I met, in the North!)

I don't think so , this has been taunted and stoked on for years by NATO expansion. That's the Russian view and its not invalid.

Ask yourself, if we previously "owned" France and Russia had the Warsaw pact all the way to France and filled it with "defensive weapons" that could hit most of our southern cities - would we feel we had to do something to fight for ?

I think we are best off not sabre rattling and waiting to see if they do attack if NATO pull back and then we can go in properly on good grounds.

This is a wargame between NATO (really the USA) and Russia imho.

And I really do think annexing the crimea was a crime , but we either move forward diplomatically (by sanctioning russian money - which of COURSE the UK wont do!!) or we just make the situation look like Russia were right all along. If they get there and they witness a build up of advanced weaponry that Ukraine has that could strike Russia, they will say they are justified.

If we really cared, we'd be taking an economic hit and cutting Russia out - rising fuel prices and everything. 

I mean, the shooting down of a civilian aircraft really should have been enough for this to happen - I actually feared a world war over it at the time - but apparently it's ok.
 

Edited February 11, 2022 by scoobos

[Rayvin 5189]

6 minutes ago, scoobos said:

Apologies for making the assumption, its just the talking of China like its a single country in real terms, is like saying the same for Canada - it's almost a federation with the differences in opinions from the rural to city. (Cannibalism during the cultural revolution is still justified in some peoples minds that I met, in the North!)

I don't think so , this has been taunted and stoked on for years by NATO expansion. That's the Russian view and its not invalid.

Ask yourself, if we previously "owned" France and Russia had the Warsaw pact all the way to France and filled it with "defensive weapons" that could hit most of our southern cities - would we feel we had to do something to fight for ?

I think we are best off not sabre rattling and waiting to see if they do attack if NATO pull back and then we can go in properly on good grounds.

This is a wargame between NATO (really the USA) and Russia imho.

And I really do think annexing the crimea was a crime , but we either move forward diplomatically (by sanctioning russian money - which of COURSE the UK wont do!!) or we just make the situation look like Russia were right all along. If they get there and they witness a build up of advanced weaponry that Ukraine has that could strike Russia, they will say they are justified.

If we really cared, we'd be taking an economic hit and cutting Russia out - rising fuel prices and everything. 

I mean, the shooting down of a civilian aircraft really should have been enough for this to happen - I actually feared a world war over it at the time - but apparently it's ok.
 

 

Could you not also argue that refusing to go to war over Crimea or the shot down plane demonstrated restraint? A reluctance to trigger that war? A line in the sand has to be made somewhere, and if we aren't going to step in for the Ukraine, who do we step in for? If Putin invades it's as close as you can get to a legitimate war IMO. We can hit Russia anyway, and they can hit us. The proximity of the missiles surely isn't relevant at this point.

 

I agree on China's diversity but as I've said a couple of times, they're eradicating a lot of that. Between the tightly controlled misinformation on public news broadcasts and the actual transportation of Han Chinese to various regions throughout the country in order to shore up 'favourable' support, they are actively working towards a singular Chinese mindset and perspective. A singular culture.

 

If the US doesn't resist Putin on Ukraine, how do you see that playing out geopolitically? I feel like you're only looking at the diminishing of the US (which I agree would be a good thing in isolation). My fear is that it becomes a net bad thing with an emboldened Russia and China.

[Renton 21451]

15 minutes ago, scoobos said:

Apologies for making the assumption, its just the talking of China like its a single country in real terms, is like saying the same for Canada - it's almost a federation with the differences in opinions from the rural to city. (Cannibalism during the cultural revolution is still justified in some peoples minds that I met, in the North!)

I don't think so , this has been taunted and stoked on for years by NATO expansion. That's the Russian view and its not invalid.

Ask yourself, if we previously "owned" France and Russia had the Warsaw pact all the way to France and filled it with "defensive weapons" that could hit most of our southern cities - would we feel we had to do something to fight for ?

I think we are best off not sabre rattling and waiting to see if they do attack if NATO pull back and then we can go in properly on good grounds.

This is a wargame between NATO (really the USA) and Russia imho.

And I really do think annexing the crimea was a crime , but we either move forward diplomatically (by sanctioning russian money - which of COURSE the UK wont do!!) or we just make the situation look like Russia were right all along. If they get there and they witness a build up of advanced weaponry that Ukraine has that could strike Russia, they will say they are justified.

If we really cared, we'd be taking an economic hit and cutting Russia out - rising fuel prices and everything. 

I mean, the shooting down of a civilian aircraft really should have been enough for this to happen - I actually feared a world war over it at the time - but apparently it's ok.
 

 

A crucial difference here is that NATO has not expanded through militaristic intervention. If France chose to join the old soviet union, then I wouldn't advocate we invade them. I've not been to Eastern Europe but I do know quite a few people (mainly through work) from the Baltic states and Finland (as well as a couple from UIkraine). All of them want to "belong" in the west and none want a union with Russia. Their choice should be respected.  

[Renton 21451]

5 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Could you not also argue that refusing to go to war over Crimea or the shot down plane demonstrated restraint? A reluctance to trigger that war? A line in the sand has to be made somewhere, and if we aren't going to step in for the Ukraine, who do we step in for? If Putin invades it's as close as you can get to a legitimate war IMO. We can hit Russia anyway, and they can hit us. The proximity of the missiles surely isn't relevant at this point.

 

I agree on China's diversity but as I've said a couple of times, they're eradicating a lot of that. Between the tightly controlled misinformation on public news broadcasts and the actual transportation of Han Chinese to various regions throughout the country in order to shore up 'favourable' support, they are actively working towards a singular Chinese mindset and perspective. A singular culture.

 

If the US doesn't resist Putin on Ukraine, how do you see that playing out geopolitically? I feel like you're only looking at the diminishing of the US (which I agree would be a good thing in isolation). My fear is that it becomes a net bad thing with an emboldened Russia and China.

 

I don't think NATO should intercede directly in Ukraine mind, as it is not a member of NATO. I'm perfectly happy with the US and UK, France, to supply Ukraine with free weapons to repel Russia and drag them into a horrific guerrilla war, as well as fuck them economically with sanctions. The Russians are not our friends. 

[scoobos 298]

13 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

I don't think NATO should intercede directly in Ukraine mind, as it is not a member of NATO. I'm perfectly happy with the US and UK, France, to supply Ukraine with free weapons to repel Russia and drag them into a horrific guerrilla war, as well as fuck them economically with sanctions. The Russians are not our friends. 

Yup. That's also Russia's point really, that's what they are testing.

1 thing I'll counter though :

"To supply Ukraine with free weapons"

not a chance, they are all sold and fully chargable, we don't even give discounts and we give them to the baddies as much as the goodies - we don't care who gets them, we really dont.

[scoobos 298]

24 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Could you not also argue that refusing to go to war over Crimea or the shot down plane demonstrated restraint? A reluctance to trigger that war?

You could, but I'd say the money wasn't in it, every single war faught since 1950 by the US has been about money , or protecting the markets.

Edited February 11, 2022 by scoobos

[spongebob toonpants 3961]

And this could also go  in the Biden thread. The US defence budget signed by Biden is 777.7 billion annually, which is a 37billionillion increase on anything Trump managed

Can't afford to forgive student debt though

Edited February 11, 2022 by spongebob toonpants

[Dr Gloom 21869]

2 hours ago, ewerk said:

 

Oh really?

 

 

how long did it take you to dig that out? 

Edited February 11, 2022 by Dr Gloom

[Rayvin 5189]

14 minutes ago, spongebob toonpants said:

And this could also go  in the Biden thread. The US defence budget signed by Biden is 777.7 billion annually, which is a 37billionillion increase on anything Trump managed

Can't afford to forgive student debt though

 

Yes, and that remains shameful.

[PaddockLad 17170]

2 hours ago, Dr Gloom said:

I take it you made it to the stop the war event yesterday then 

 

Still no footage of that Gloom, you're a video journo aren't you? am certainly not saying it didn't happen,  just I can't find any footage of it....

[Dr Gloom 21869]

1 hour ago, Rayvin said:

 

So China hasn't invaded Taiwan for the past few decades because it was economically counterproductive, but continues to feel that flying 150 warplanes over Taiwan's airspace, building up military forces in the south of China, and repeating commitments to take it back by force if necessary, are part of this strategy. The logic presumably being that this is done for domestic consumption and that they'll never actually do anything about it. We'll see, but Taiwan itself thinks the invasion will come this decade, 2025 in fact based on the current escalation of Chinese forces. Of course, they're probably just saying whatever the US tells them to say, I assume.

 

You apparently look at China and see just the economic powerhouse it is/can become. You are not seeing the disgraced former imperial power that it considers itself to be. Chinese rhetoric around nationalism is standing up people who insult China and cause it to lose face. Every time China is insulted anywhere in the world, her people are up in arms, boycotting anything to do with the country in question and harassing/attacking foreigners from that country. They view the restoration of China in the global scene as an inevitability, and they will take back everything that was 'historically' theirs along the way. As they did with Tibet.

 

They will also eradicate the varying ethnicities and cultures they claim as part of this, as they've been doing for the past 30 years anyway.

 

I dunno what China did to earn the 'benign' label from some people on the left, I really don't - if the same government was set up over here it would be a far right fascist hellscape. As for "the US as saviour". I stopped buying that in university ffs. Then I spent the next ten years talking like you. Then I spent 5 years watching what the US pulling back from the world stage under Trump, and concluded that we're in a 'better the devil you know' situation. I am under no illusions that the US is a violent and imperialist state. I am also under no illusions that Russia and China would be any better if they could get away with it. And more importantly, I fundamentally do not think that a world in which all 3 exist in this state at the same time, is better than the one we have.

 

[Gemmill 44568]

I'll say this for scoobos. He's the most well-researched beach-based watch salesman I've ever come across. 

[Dr Gloom 21869]

4 minutes ago, PaddockLad said:

 

Still no footage of that Gloom, you're a video journo aren't you? am certainly not saying it didn't happen,  just I can't find any footage of it....

 

looks like it was an online thing rather than a march 

 

https://www.stopwar.org.uk/article/watch-no-war-in-ukraine-stop-nato-expansion/

Edited February 11, 2022 by Dr Gloom

[Craig 6682]

1 hour ago, Meenzer said:

 

Hah. I suppose hitting that wouldn't do much for the air quality either.

 

Honestly when I saw the plans they had it was like a huge fucking game of minesweeper!

[Dr Gloom 21869]

i've enjoyed the exchange lads. I agree with rayvin. it isn't propaganda - anyone with half a brain can see how destructive western imperialism has been over the decades, but let's not kid ourselves about what's happening on ukraine's border. the debating club that used to run the labour party can argue otherwise, but this time it isn't the west doing the sabre rattling.

 

as for the happiness scale, i take it no one here has ever been to russia

[spongebob toonpants 3961]

4 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

i've enjoyed the exchange lads. I agree with rayvin. it isn't propaganda - anyone with half a brain can see how destructive western imperialism has been over the decades, but let's not kid ourselves about what's happening on ukraine's border. the debating club that used to run the labour party can argue otherwise, but this time it isn't the west doing the sabre rattling.

 

as for the happiness scale, i take it no one here has ever been to russia

My brother  worked in Moscow for 4 years. Can't speak to the happiness scale but I did see a bear riding a motorbike at the circus

[Dr Gloom 21869]

2 minutes ago, spongebob toonpants said:

My brother  worked in Moscow for 4 years. Can't speak to the happiness scale but I did see a bear riding a motorbike at the circus

 

at least the bears are happy

[Meenzer 15467]

In Soviet Russia, motorbike rides you

[ewerk 30409]

1 hour ago, Dr Gloom said:

how long did it take you to dig that out? 

About 15 seconds. It’s like shooting fish in a barrel.

[PaddockLad 17170]

43 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

i've enjoyed the exchange lads. I agree with rayvin. it isn't propaganda - anyone with half a brain can see how destructive western imperialism has been over the decades, but let's not kid ourselves about what's happening on ukraine's border. the debating club that used to run the labour party can argue otherwise, but this time it isn't the west doing the sabre rattling.

 

as for the happiness scale, i take it no one here has ever been to russia

 

No but I've been to Ukraine...

 

The locals gave the lad in the pic that flag after the game v Kharkiv. They were fuckin lovely to us. They all said how corrupt their country was though. The club doesn't  exist anymore,  can only guess what happened to the gangster who owned it who propelled them into Europa League football... 

[Rayvin 5189]

Embassies being evacuated in the Ukraine. Invasion sounds closer than ever.

[MMXXVIII 1293]

The stretched twig of peace is at melting point.

 

 

[Rayvin 5189]

It doesn't sound to me like the US is actually going to do anything tbh. Which means appeasement is the name of the game.

[spongebob toonpants 3961]

Quote

There really ought to be a win-win here where Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine, Ukraine disavows NATO membership, the western powers acknowledge the referendum that incorporated Crimea into Russia, Russia acknowledges that Ukraine can follow the footsteps of Sweden, Finland, and Austria into the EU without violating neutrality, and everyone goes back to buying and selling natural gas instead of killing each other.

The alternative is a bit worse for the U.S., worse than that for western Europe, even worse than that for Russia, and positively catastrophic for Ukraine.

Because everyone is better off with peace, I’m at least a little optimistic that war can be avoided. Unfortunately, as Angell learned, sometimes people make bad choices and launch destructive wars that leave everyone worse off. And I’m a little concerned that the media’s love of zero-sum competitive framings has obscured the extent to which invading Ukraine would be a genuinely terrible choice for Putin. If he does it, it will probably be portrayed as humiliating to various western leaders he dislikes. But it’s important to say that it really would be a disaster for him and his country more than for the west.

Quote

I have two big concerns about the way the Ukraine issue is currently framed in much of the international press:

• It seems like Joe Biden (and like-minded administrations in Europe) really, really don’t want Russia to invade Ukraine, as if we might potentially be willing to make concessions of large value in order to secure that outcome.
• It seems like it would be a big win for the west if Putin stopped threatening to invade Ukraine, which makes it seem like something he probably wouldn’t want to do.

The fact is that nothing particularly bad happens to the United States (or to the UK or to France or to Germany) if Russia takes over Ukraine. So while we can and will put some sanctions on Russia if they do it, the amount of real-world economic sacrifice that we are going to make for the sake of Ukraine is pretty small. But if Putin thinks of backing down as a big loss for him and of seizing Ukraine as a big win, he’s going to be pretty tempted to do it.

If I had a chance to mediate here, I would emphasize that western leaders genuinely would prefer to avoid a war and are happy to find a way to help Putin save face. They don’t want to make him face a binary choice of war or humiliating climbdown, because nobody likes a humiliating climbdown. But by the same token, if Putin really wants to spend his twilight years battling a guerrilla insurgency in Ukraine, that is much more of a problem for him than it is for the United States of America. America has a big firearms manufacturing industry, and Joe Biden is happy to do bipartisan bills to buy those guns and send them into western Ukraine via Poland and Romania. Compared to funding an anti-Soviet insurgency in Afghanistan, it’s logistically quite easy and doesn’t involve cutting deals with jihadists. It’s genuinely Russia’s choice, and they should not feel like we are terrified of the prospects of a Russian-dominated Ukraine or prepared to pay a huge ransom for it.

What I do think we should put on the table is that America sincerely wants a better relationship with Russia, and if that requires formally acknowledging that Ukraine and Georgia aren’t going to join NATO, that’s fine.

But the biggest reason we want a better relationship with Russia is that we are trying to reorient our foreign policy around containing China. If U.S.-Russian relations go into a tailspin, that inevitably turns Russia into the junior partner in a firm Sino-Russian alliance. That’s bad for the United States but it’s really bad for Russia. Putin should get smart and hedge and accept a face-saving compromise on Ukraine.

Matty Yglesias has some good thoughts on Ukraine