Politics

[ChezGiven 0]

No you havent, i told you that the new government's austerity plans would send the country into a double-dip recession, your response was first that it wouldnt, when you didnt follow my explanation of why it would you then came out with 'maybe a double dip recession isnt as bad as people are making it out to be'.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

No you havent, i told you that the new government's austerity plans would send the country into a double-dip recession, your response was first that it wouldnt, when you didnt follow my explanation of why it would you then came out with 'maybe a double dip recession isnt as bad as people are making it out to be'.

 

Yes I have, Ive talked before on here about Indusrty moving to East in the 80's and how various governments managed to keep things bubbling along either by boom or bust or by the housing / finance bubble or by creating a bloated benefit system.

 

With regard to the current mess it has been done to death imo and basically falls into a view arguments.

 

Would it have been any better under Labour?

 

Doubtful. They were promising virtually the same package of cuts.

 

Is it really fair to blame this on the cuts?

 

Not really as it is well documented the dreaded 25% cuts havent really begun yet having been back loaded into a 5 year plan.

 

Has the Euro crisis added to our woes?

 

Of course it has as Europe is our major market.

 

Are any political parties offering anything different?

 

No, if Labour got in tomorrow it would be exactly the same.

 

 

Virtually everyone in the World understands we are going through a very fucked up period and that no one is quite sure how it will pan out other than the continuing rise of third world countries be that China, India, Brazil or Africa..... All squeezing more jobs out of good old UK.

 

I appreciate you can talk Kensian ? theories til the cows come home and you may well be right, but the bottom line is no one in this country is offering anything different so it is all a little irelavent.

[NJS 4378]

There's also the point that it was obvious to anyone with more than two brain cells that weaker countries that embraced austerity (as they did) would spiral downwards - so you can fuck off with your "nobody predicted the eurozone crisis" Tory shite.

[ChezGiven 0]

Dont lie to yourself CT, you said you have been talking about managed decline for ages, you havent. You and i were discussing whether the new government's plans would improve the economy, you said they would, i said that it would lead to a double-dip recession.

 

I'm not talking theories, i made a clear simple prediction based on 25 years of studying economics. That prediction was 100% correct.

 

You dont know what you're on about so am not going to engage in counter-factual political scenario analysis with you, just wanted to say 'no, dont lie to yourself, you were claiming the cuts would lead to growth'. Dont worry, you're not alone in thinking that a confidence fairy will arrive and increase private investment, i didnt think that, i knew the sources of this ideology in the history books of economic thought and could see that the people predicting that the private sector would drive the recovery didnt really understand the context in which that prediction was made (nor which decade). Just trying to keep you straight mate, nothing worse than deceiving yourself you were right all along when the very exact opposite is the case. Stay on your toes.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

All I can muster Im afraid.

[ChezGiven 0]

Only Obama and Gordon Brown knew what they were doing economically, both were foiled politically.

 

Both introduced a fiscal stimulus which explains the upward economic trajectory of both economies in 2009.

 

Whats both fascinating to me and also incredibly frustrating that every morning on CNBC, Reuters news etc all the analysts are discussing the fiscal cliff in the US. The fiscal cliff refers to 2 acts in the US which come into effect at the end of this year, one law mandates an end to tax relief and the other to decreased spending. This is designed to cut the US deficit over 10 years. Except whats got all the analysts agitated and is sending equity markets into extreme volatility is the fact that this will cause a recession in the US.

 

So lets look at this really simply and carefully. In one place you've got people saying we need to cut spending and reduce the deficit, fine. Then you've got people saying we need to return the economy to growth, which everyone now sees is more important. So some people suggest that we keep spending, to which the analysts, the markets, the right wing think tanks, the politicians say 'thats old thinking, spending more wont grow the economy (a heavily ideologically driven statement but you dont have to know that to pass grad school).

 

Now look though, this spending mechanism which doesnt work when you increase spending MIRACULOUSLY is going to work in reverse

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_fiscal_cliff

 

Just hang on a minute, either government expenditure has an impact or it doesnt, it certainly doesnt just work one way. Thats a whole financial sector who on the whole cant even see this basic contradiction. The world is mad.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

I think what most politicians, analysts, markets etc dont understand is if the overall picture is bleak, what good is borrowing to create some short term "boom" that you seem to be advocating. I understand doing this in previous recessions when there was always some light (bubble) at the end of the tunnel, but not now.

 

If Cameron through money at the economy surely it is a short term boom that you either have to keep fuelling (finance bubble) or it eventually ends. Whats on the other side of the wall?

 

When the government stops spending, where will the real jobs be?

[Matt 0]

Let's face it, there's no money left and no room for any party of any colour to do anything meaningful.

 

This is why we have the fat pleb, whose name I Forget, (shadow chancellor), talking about a wealth tax on homes over 2 million.

 

Politics for the sheep.

 

No money left where? This is a national economy, not a cookie jar. Government finances are circular, and austerity in a recession is acting as the death spiral.

 

And your idea that we are beyond hope because your Bullingdon wunderkinder haven't cracked it in two years is lacking in any imagination. I agree with you on Balls- he's blissfully unaware of his role in the last government and yesterday came out with this belter: "another bank bonus tax to fund 25,000 new low-cost homes". You have to love the way opposition politicians can pluck unconnected items out of the air in the full knowledge they make no actual sense and will never actually come to fruition.

 

Here's two very simple suggestions that I think would vastly improve our economy:

- Massive government investment in training and skills, especially high-end tech/engineering roles - ie not charging the earth for an education (lefty idea)

- Relaxation of employment law so that companies can hire people without fear of endless litigation just because someone is surplus to requirements (righty idea)

 

The only thing that will rebalance our economy is improving our skill base for the future and allowing the labour market to be flexible enough to take these people on. We will not grow the economy by cutting, traditional right-wing 'crowding out' theory does not apply when we are rapidly losing competitive advantages on a global stage.

 

This situation is not beyond salvage- but it will require a government who realises that left or right thinking is not going to solve this alone.

[Matt 0]

If Cameron through money at the economy surely it is a short term boom that you either have to keep fuelling (finance bubble) or it eventually ends. Whats on the other side of the wall?

 

When the government stops spending, where will the real jobs be?

 

You don't 'throw' money (or through it, for that matter). Do you think government expenditure only has short-term impacts, or that targeted government spending can improve conditions for private investment?

 

You are a very unimaginative individual.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

No money left where? This is a national economy, not a cookie jar. Government finances are circular, and austerity in a recession is acting as the death spiral.

 

And your idea that we are beyond hope because your Bullingdon wunderkinder haven't cracked it in two years is lacking in any imagination. I agree with you on Balls- he's blissfully unaware of his role in the last government and yesterday came out with this belter: "another bank bonus tax to fund 25,000 new low-cost homes". You have to love the way opposition politicians can pluck unconnected items out of the air in the full knowledge they make no actual sense and will never actually come to fruition.

 

Here's two very simple suggestions that I think would vastly improve our economy:

- Massive government investment in training and skills, especially high-end tech/engineering roles - ie not charging the earth for an education (lefty idea)

- Relaxation of employment law so that companies can hire people without fear of endless litigation just because someone is surplus to requirements (righty idea)

 

The only thing that will rebalance our economy is improving our skill base for the future and allowing the labour market to be flexible enough to take these people on. We will not grow the economy by cutting, traditional right-wing 'crowding out' theory does not apply when we are rapidly losing competitive advantages on a global stage.

 

This situation is not beyond salvage- but it will require a government who realises that left or right thinking is not going to solve this alone.

 

Im not sure where the jobs will come from if we suddenly train lots of people to do hi tech / engineering stuff. You are not going to persuade many fat cats to have their TV's PC's made here when he can make billions by having Africans make them for £2 a day.

 

Re your second point, again I dont think thats a big issue. Big companies like Nissan and Rolls Royce get around that now by making sure a good percentage of their workforce is made up of short term contractors that can be recruited / paid off at very short notice as contracts are won and lost.

[PaddockLad 17246]

You don't 'throw' money (or through it, for that matter). Do you think government expenditure only has short-term impacts, or that targeted government spending can improve conditions for private investment?

 

You are a very unimaginative individual.

 

cruel that like

[ChezGiven 0]

You don't 'throw' money (or through it, for that matter). Do you think government expenditure only has short-term impacts, or that targeted government spending can improve conditions for private investment?

 

You are a very unimaginative individual.

Come on be fair, he comes up with a new hobby every week and imagines what he has said on the economy since 2010 on here was right....

[Christmas Tree 4725]

You don't 'throw' money (or through it, for that matter). Do you think government expenditure only has short-term impacts, or that targeted government spending can improve conditions for private investment?

 

You are a very unimaginative individual.

 

Well answer the question then oh imaginative one If any government borrows money and chucks it at the economy stimulating growth, what happens when they turn the tap off. Usually a government will create a boom period by starting large infrastructure projects and the money seeps down through the economy. When the money stops at the top it eventually dries up at the bottom.

 

The future os this country boils down to having a long term successful job market which creates taxes and pays for Rentons NHS etc etc. I simply dont see how that situation can be maintained in the short to medium term in this country.

 

Its been managed for the last 30 years by boom and bust, and then finance and housing bubbles. Those bubbles aint coming back any time soon.

 

We're doomed, doomed I tell ya.

[ChezGiven 0]

Renton's NHS

[Matt 0]

Im not sure where the jobs will come from if we suddenly train lots of people to do hi tech / engineering stuff. You are not going to persuade many fat cats to have their TV's PC's made here when he can make billions by having Africans make them for £2 a day.

 

Re your second point, again I dont think thats a big issue. Big companies like Nissan and Rolls Royce get around that now by making sure a good percentage of their workforce is made up of short term contractors that can be recruited / paid off at very short notice as contracts are won and lost.

 

Assembly line work is not high-end engineering. Designing and building the robots and machines that make up the lines is. Germany is the absolute master of it- high quality, precision equipment.

 

And on the second point, it is. I have worked at a small company that would only hire as an absolute last resort because of the issues involved with getting rid of people. It mainly impacts smaller companies (you know the ones being targeted as the drivers for growth?). If companies were able to hire more liberally, they wouldn't need to use contractors so much and can instead build a business on permanent employees rather than an army of mercenaries (apologies to contractors, but just my experience to date).

[PaddockLad 17246]

No money left where? This is a national economy, not a cookie jar. Government finances are circular, and austerity in a recession is acting as the death spiral.

 

And your idea that we are beyond hope because your Bullingdon wunderkinder haven't cracked it in two years is lacking in any imagination. I agree with you on Balls- he's blissfully unaware of his role in the last government and yesterday came out with this belter: "another bank bonus tax to fund 25,000 new low-cost homes". You have to love the way opposition politicians can pluck unconnected items out of the air in the full knowledge they make no actual sense and will never actually come to fruition.

 

 

 

 

Here's two very simple suggestions that I think would vastly improve our economy:

- Massive government investment in training and skills, especially high-end tech/engineering roles - ie not charging the earth for an education (lefty idea)

 

Good call...you can get what they call an "apprenticeship" nowadays for sweeping up in a Tesco warehouse

 

 

- Relaxation of employment law so that companies can hire people without fear of endless litigation just because someone is surplus to requirements (righty idea)

 

Depends on the nature of the business whether that works....if its labour intensive production and/or construction,be it skilled,semi skilled or unskilled then "casualisation" happened 20 years ago. You can already say to someone "pack your tools, your sacked" on most building sites and not have any comeback, inspite of recent regulations. What else would you turn into a sub contract sack-a-thon and how would that help?

 

 

 

The only thing that will rebalance our economy is improving our skill base for the future and allowing the labour market to be flexible enough to take these people on. We will not grow the economy by cutting, traditional right-wing 'crowding out' theory does not apply when we are rapidly losing competitive advantages on a global stage.

 

This situation is not beyond salvage- but it will require a government who realises that left or right thinking is not going to solve this alone.

[Matt 0]

Well answer the question then oh imaginative one If any government borrows money and chucks it at the economy stimulating growth, what happens when they turn the tap off.

 

'Chuck' suggests a careless and frivolous bout of spending, which is not what I said. And the idea is you don't need to turn the tap off. It should be blindingly obvious by now that we will not erase the deficit position by cutting, it is simply too great and the social costs associated would be politically impossible. Instead we need to target our weaknesses as an economy to give us a hope of growth in the future (sadly for the politicos, this is beyond the next election and maybe even the one after that). It might not even work- we may not grow, we cannot control the Eurozone for exmple- but we must do all we can within our control to create a skilled workforce in a business-friendly environment.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

Assembly line work is not high-end engineering. Designing and building the robots and machines that make up the lines is. Germany is the absolute master of it- high quality, precision equipment.

 

And on the second point, it is. I have worked at a small company that would only hire as an absolute last resort because of the issues involved with getting rid of people. It mainly impacts smaller companies (you know the ones being targeted as the drivers for growth?). If companies were able to hire more liberally, they wouldn't need to use contractors so much and can instead build a business on permanent employees rather than an army of mercenaries (apologies to contractors, but just my experience to date).

 

So your first point is a very nice wish list to take on Germany, but wouldnt really make a big dent in the overall jobs market.

 

And swapping contractors to full employment, but still being allowed to get rid, wont make a big dent either.

 

It is however the mass assembly line jobs that we desperately need which employ the not too bright. As we all know however the TV's PC's etc are all being made abroad for buttons so that isnt going to change.

 

The things you are coming out with are the equivalent of Ed Balls master plans. Headlines but no depth.

[Park Life 71]

A good place to start is to throw big chunks of money at Universities that have money making partner organisations like Cambridge Life sciences and so on..Bitotech..Alternative energy and techinical and computing departments. Ground up. Make studying for Engineering and Science free.

 

 

Make Wales a free trade zone with peppercorn taxes and throw money at foreign companies that come and set up there.

 

Open up a couple of coal mines and use efficent new technology and cleaning flues to make them micro polluting.

Go ahead and tax high rate computer trading and put a 0.3 % tax on financial trades above 0.5m in value (don't hit the day traders).

 

Nationalise rail, water and power generation and update and expand those networks (say 50 billion).

Build wind farm, groy soya (Argentinas biggest export to Jpn and Asia).

Remove all taxes on small business with a turnover under 1m. Carry on with tax breaks against employment.

 

Tax second cars, second houses, second holidays. Tax lorries - make then use nationalised rail cargo.

Re-invigorate reigonal business councils and initiatives (underfunded for 20 years).

Open more libraries, give away more computers.

Have bicycle banks in all major cities free of charge (but the bikes from a UK firm).

Get Raytheon, ICI, Bp and Vodaphone to actually pay their taxes.

Higher rate of tax to 48p

Lower rate to 20p

And 10p tax for all earning below 18k

Employ teachers, nurses and police. (Take all the vid cameras down).

Make banks lend to small business with a Govt backed default insurance. Re-insure with counter indemnity.

 

 

Serioulsy so much can be done with the political will.

 

Edited September 7, 2012 by Park Life

[Christmas Tree 4725]

'Chuck' suggests a careless and frivolous bout of spending, which is not what I said. And the idea is you don't need to turn the tap off. It should be blindingly obvious by now that we will not erase the deficit position by cutting, it is simply too great and the social costs associated would be politically impossible. Instead we need to target our weaknesses as an economy to give us a hope of growth in the future (sadly for the politicos, this is beyond the next election and maybe even the one after that). It might not even work- we may not grow, we cannot control the Eurozone for exmple- but we must do all we can within our control to create a skilled workforce in a business-friendly environment.

 

The tap has to be turned off. You simply cant keep borrowing to spend as an ongoing way of life.

 

Our weaknesses are simple. Jobs have all gone abroad, its really not that complicated.

 

And we've tried the skilled workforce routine. Labour thought everyone should have a degree. Great

 

Having a skilled workforce but still being too expensive to compete makes no sense. Its just cuddly talk.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

I think what most politicians, analysts, markets etc dont understand is if the overall picture is bleak, what good is borrowing to create some short term "boom" that you seem to be advocating. I understand doing this in previous recessions when there was always some light (bubble) at the end of the tunnel, but not now.

 

If Cameron through money at the economy surely it is a short term boom that you either have to keep fuelling (finance bubble) or it eventually ends. Whats on the other side of the wall?

 

When the government stops spending, where will the real jobs be?

 

Did you miss this one Chez or do you just do theory

[NJS 4378]

I don't think CT has grasped that investment actually produces returns through tax. He sees it as money pissed away rather than seed sown.

[Christmas Tree 4725]

I don't think CT has grasped that investment actually produces returns through tax. He sees it as money pissed away rather than seed sown.

 

I think you dont grasp that when the tap gets turned off, the money stops creating jobs and the taxes dry up.

[Matt 0]

Do you understand the difference between absolute advantage and relative advantage?

 

Why do we need thousands of jobs in an area in which we are at an absolute disadvantage to other countries?

 

You appear to have completely given up the UK as a lost cause. So, do you plan to move your family to a country where there is hope as opposed to your expectation that decline and misery are inevitable?

 

Can you also let me know how much depth you would like me to post on a forum.

 

 

The tap has to be turned off. You simply cant keep borrowing to spend as an ongoing way of life.

 

Revenues - Expenditure = Surplus (deficit)

[Park Life 71]

I think you dont grasp that when the tap gets turned off, the money stops creating jobs and the taxes dry up.

 

Stop companies off shoring their profits.