Politics

[Renton 21388]

 

[Dr Gloom 21844]

5 hours ago, Renton said:

 

Oh, hold on [checks notes], no, he's a corbynite nowadays. 

@Christmas Tree  What do you make of all of this? Your silence in this thread the past couple of years gives me a clue 

[Dr Gloom 21844]

The Tories can never claim again to be the party of fiscal responsibility or economic stability.  

[Dr Gloom 21844]

Sterling at a 37 year low

 

 

[ewerk 30363]

My worry is that when Labour win the next election what do they have to work with? A failing economy with a decreasing tax base? Then when they need to raise tax rates they’re painted as ‘same old Labour’.

[Rayvin 5186]

1 hour ago, ewerk said:

My worry is that when Labour win the next election what do they have to work with? A failing economy with a decreasing tax base? Then when they need to raise tax rates they’re painted as ‘same old Labour’.

 

This narrative needs to be resisted by absolutely all of us, very vocally, permanently. We must never shut up about the absolute garbage that the Tories have created here. We must be relentless in holding truth up to people.

 

Crazy as that sounds, that's what it'll take. Silence and they get away with it. Same as fucking austerity.

[ohhh_yeah 2946]

 

 

[Holden McGroin 6538]

Just had a look at the Daily Heil. Mainly all positive about the mini-budget.

 

 Big Headline is: "Britain finally seems to have a Tory Government after 12 years': Party praises Kwarteng's bold £45bn package of tax cuts and Chancellor insists it is NOT a gamble"

 

And thats why they still have a chance.

[Christmas Tree 4706]

8 hours ago, Dr Gloom said:

@Christmas Tree  What do you make of all of this? Your silence in this thread the past couple of years gives me a clue 

My “silence” is purely just a mark of respect for the make up of the board. Politics is far too tribal now to have any serious discussion about it.

 

As for yesterday, my main takeaway from everything I’ve heard / read is GAMBLE. You just need look at the two leaders of the front page of the FT to see one writer over the moon and one much more cynical / cautious.

 

It reminds me of the 80’s / 90’s and the boom and bust economics.

 

The money that’s been borrowed to pay for covid and energy bills is astronomical. I guess the options are to return to even bigger austerity or try and grow your way out of it, hence this gamble.

 

Even if the growth comes, interest rates are going to return to pre 2008 crash levels next year which will be misery for millions. This on top of the misery that energy is already about to cause.

 

The hope now is that growth does come and the Ukraine situation is resolved. 

[Holden McGroin 6538]

The Sun have more or less completely ignored it and gone with some Harry/Megan shit. A few stories down there is one headline : 'Liz Truss has gambled on growth — but what alternative does she have?

 

 

[Gemmill 44485]

I don't agree that the papers can spin this for them. The papers can lie to you about something that hasn't happened but will be great (Brexit) or something that is happening to other people (evil migrants and benefit cheats), but they can't lie to you about what's happening to you. 

 

They can't tell you you're better off when you know you aren't, or that you CAN pay that energy bill and do all the other things you used to be able to do, when you know for a fact that you can't. 

 

Eventually reality catches up with you and bites. It already is, and things are gonna get worse from here, not better. This lot are fucked. 

[Christmas Tree 4706]

40 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

I don't agree that the papers can spin this for them. The papers can lie to you about something that hasn't happened but will be great (Brexit) or something that is happening to other people (evil migrants and benefit cheats), but they can't lie to you about what's happening to you. 

 

They can't tell you you're better off when you know you aren't, or that you CAN pay that energy bill and do all the other things you used to be able to do, when you know for a fact that you can't. 

 

Eventually reality catches up with you and bites. It already is, and things are gonna get worse from here, not better. This lot are fucked. 

I think you are massively underestimating their ability to campaign.

 

”We saved you with the vaccine”

 

”We saved you with Furlough”

 

”We saved you when Putin put the prices up”

 

Also possibly

 

”we’ve got the economy booming, don’t risk it with Labour”

 

”We’ve brought down Putins inflation / rates / etc”

 

One thing they usually do very well is campaign. Starmer really needs to up his game or move aside or he will be caught in the headlights of “are you going to increase taxes” etc

[ewerk 30363]

Calling this a gamble at all is complete spin. How is cutting the tax of the highest earners going to boost economic growth? Even cutting the tax of average earners during a period of stagflation is absolute nonsense.

The chancellor is writing to the BoE telling them to get a grip on inflation while doing everything he possibly can to fuel it. It’s like torching your own house and then continuing to pour petrol on it then berating the fire brigade for not getting there fast enough. The BoE have one very blunt tool and and that’s interest rates. If the government are telling them to cut inflation then all they can do is spike interest rates which fucks the rest of us and stifles investment in the economy.

Edited September 24, 2022 by ewerk

[Gemmill 44485]

I don't think we need to worry about them getting the economy booming. If interest rates hit 5% next year, nobody with a mortgage is gonna feel like its boomtime any time soon. Theyre forecast to be 3% still in 2026. Almost everyone with a mortgage will, over the next few years, switch to a new deal that will be significantly more than it currently is, and which for many will buckle them. 

 

They'll still be on that deal (assuming they can even pass affordability criteria and get a new deal) at the next election. Good luck telling them how great things are going for them.

[spongebob toonpants 3956]

For once CT has a point. Just look at the way this already being spun as a gamble but worth a try. Unless Labour manage to craft their own narrative I fear a short lived bounce next spring followed by a snap election

[Renton 21388]

I can't see any of these policy decisions causing a boom either, not even a short term one. Because the thresholds have been held static, you need to be on 150k or more to get any tax relief. Then utility bills are still going up, interest rates too. Corporation tax is staying ridiculously low but that hasn't encouraged any investment because of Brexit.

 

The BoE raised interest rates by 0.5% this week and Stirling still tanked. Let that sink in, we are in major trouble here. Truss can't bullshit the market. Then she's introducing universally toxic policies like fracking. I'd put her chance of winning a GE at less than 1%.. I think its unlikely she'll get a chance to fight a GE personality.

 

This isn't  remotely like the boom and bust we saw in the 80s and 90s under your favoured  government CT, the situation is much more grave and the quality of our leadership to handle this has never been worse. And we are alone, out of the EU. The only thing that gives me cause for optimism is a complete crash might bring in fundamental change. But then I look at Starmer and my hope fades. 

Edited September 24, 2022 by Renton

[Renton 21388]

11 minutes ago, spongebob toonpants said:

For once CT has a point. Just look at the way this already being spun as a gamble but worth a try. Unless Labour manage to craft their own narrative I fear a short lived bounce next spring followed by a snap election

 

NaaH, Gemmill's post nailed it. You cant spin people's own experiences. I also think people are hugely overestimating the power of the legacy press here. Hardly any fucker reads them and when they do they are preaching to the converted. 

 

Loads of NUFC type of cognition bias here and poor analysis. Labour were annihilated last election for 3 reasons. Johnson, Brexit, and (most importantly imo) Corbyn. None of those are true any more. Johnson may come back, but he is no longer popular. Brexit is demonstrably a disaster with no tangible benefits 6 years on. Corbyn has been well and truly defenestrated. 

 

Don't worry about the tories now, worry about the country instead. We're in a tail spin and it's going to be hard for anyone to pull out of it.

[Gemmill 44485]

When you start thinking CT might be right in the Politics thread, you've got problems. 

[spongebob toonpants 3956]

I hope you are right but I still think you underestimate quite how toxic Labour still are in the South. In the same way as I would never vote Tory there are probably at least 30% of the country who always will 

 

Also never underestimate the extent to which people are idiots, and there are none quite so stupid as a floating voter.

 

3 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

When you start thinking CT might be right in the Politics thread, you've got problems

Proves my point, these are the people who have a vote

[Renton 21388]

4 minutes ago, spongebob toonpants said:

you underestimate quite how toxic Labour still are in the South

That's what the Lib Dems are for.

[Dr Gloom 21844]

5 minutes ago, spongebob toonpants said:

I hope you are right but I still think you underestimate quite how toxic Labour still are in the South. In the same way as I would never vote Tory there are probably at least 30% of the country who always will 

 

Also never underestimate the extent to which people are idiots, and there are none quite so stupid as a floating voter.

 

Proves my point, these are the people who have a vote

this is why Starmer is running with beige and banging on about making brexit work. He’s betting on voter fatigue after more than a decade of Tory austerity, economic chaos and falling living standards. Captain sensible/boring might attract the floating voters you speak of. 

[Dr Gloom 21844]

It worked for Biden… 

[Renton 21388]

15 minutes ago, Dr Gloom said:

It worked for Biden… 

 

Who hasn't changed much. 

[Dr Gloom 21844]

3 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

Who hasn't changed much. 

You don’t think his climate change bill was a big deal? £300bn investment in renewables, new minimum taxes on big companies…

 

I’m amazed he got it through congress tbh  

[Dr Gloom 21844]

It’s not his fault he has dementia