Politics

[Gemmill 44900]

5 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

I've heard she just said what Neil wanted to hear. I'll watch it tonight. I've been unimpressed with her every time I have listened to her so far though. 

Absolute bullshit. On three occasions she told him to pipe down and listen to her answer rather than constantly demand details but only give time for soundbites. 

[Rayvin 5223]

Just now, ewerk said:

So the Labour leader during the referendum campaign had no effect on people's votes? Go outside and think about what you've just said.

 

We've been here before. How many Labour voters voted remain? How many Lib Dems? How many Greens?

[Renton 21627]

2 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Aye, if only the Labour party before Corbyn had listened to the warnings about austerity, maybe we wouldn't be here.

 

Although Brexit would have happened anyway of course since the desire to issue an anti-establishment kick in the bollocks would have existed still been there.

 

Would it? Does the fact that the leader of the opposition is an unelectable Brexiter of limited intelligence and zero strategic ability or appeal make no difference? Who knows. I doubt we would we be in the position now with Johnson having an unassailable majority personally, but carry on with the denial. 

[ewerk 30620]

Just now, Rayvin said:

 

We've been here before. How many Labour voters voted remain? How many Lib Dems? How many Greens?

You definitely didn't have enough time between reading my post and replying to go outside and have a proper think.

C'mon now, off you go.

[Gemmill 44900]

 She also explains her position on Brexit and on May's deal, and it makes a lot more sense in hindsight than all of the "we want to remain but we refuse to work together to make it happen" that all of the people we pinned our hopes on were providing. 

[Renton 21627]

1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

 

We've been here before. How many Labour voters voted remain? How many Lib Dems? How many Greens?

 

Not enough. Corbyn was a fucking disaster during the referendum. Unsurprisingly, since he believed in Brexit.

[Renton 21627]

4 minutes ago, Gemmill said:

Absolute bullshit. On three occasions she told him to pipe down and listen to her answer rather than constantly demand details but only give time for soundbites. 

 

I respect your opinion usually but not sure you are that objective when it comes to Nandy for some reason.....

[Rayvin 5223]

Just now, ewerk said:

You definitely didn't have enough time between reading my post and replying to go outside and have a proper think.

C'mon now, off you go.

 

Because we've been here before I've had the think and previously concluded that this notion that Corbyn could have made any difference is just wrong.

 

And that's based on the fact that for enough Labour voters to vote remain in order to cancel out the leave vote, they would have needed to jump from 65% voting remain, all the way past the LDs on 68%, and approaching the Greens on 80%.

 

No Labour leader was going to hit 75% Remain or whatever the final number is. I worked it out once and posted in here. No one engaged with it so I assumed I was right

[ewerk 30620]

3 minutes ago, Renton said:

 

I respect your opinion usually but not sure you are that objective when it comes to Nandy for some reason.....

It was picture 12 that tipped him over the edge.

 

[Renton 21627]

3 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

Because we've been here before I've had the think and previously concluded that this notion that Corbyn could have made any difference is just wrong.

 

And that's based on the fact that for enough Labour voters to vote remain in order to cancel out the leave vote, they would have needed to jump from 65% voting remain, all the way past the LDs on 68%, and approaching the Greens on 80%.

 

No Labour leader was going to hit 75% Remain or whatever the final number is. I worked it out once and posted in here. No one engaged with it so I assumed I was right

 

It only needed a 800,000 reversal or more people to get out. And in your analysis, you're assuming Corbyn has no appeal to voters of other parties, or can make a strong argument that can persuade the general population. Can't reach the people Blair did. Which is actually true and one of his many, many problems. 

[Rayvin 5223]

Ok I just worked it out again, to get us to absolute deadlock in the referendum, on their own, Labour needed to hit 72% Remain. To reverse the majority entirely, they needed 79%.

 

It was never going to happen. The EU is a broadly centrist project and even the LDs couldn't get past 70%.

[Renton 21627]

1 minute ago, Rayvin said:

Ok I just worked it out again, to get us to absolute deadlock in the referendum, on their own, Labour needed to hit 72% Remain. To reverse the majority entirely, they needed 79%.

 

It was never going to happen. The EU is a broadly centrist project and even the LDs couldn't get past 70%.

 

It wasn't an election ffs. He needed to make strong arguments and have broad appeal. Do you think he did? 

[NJS 4386]

If the clear arguments didn't change leave minds in the 3 years after the vote, why would they have changed them before? 

 

We have to just face up to the fact that millions wanted it and didn't give a fuck about the how, who, why and whats in the debate. 

[Meenzer 15531]

5 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Ok I just worked it out again, to get us to absolute deadlock in the referendum, on their own, Labour needed to hit 72% Remain. To reverse the majority entirely, they needed 79%.

 

Does that include Labour voters who didn't vote in the referendum?

[ewerk 30620]

6 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

Ok I just worked it out again, to get us to absolute deadlock in the referendum, on their own, Labour needed to hit 72% Remain. To reverse the majority entirely, they needed 79%.

 

It was never going to happen. The EU is a broadly centrist project and even the LDs couldn't get past 70%.

In regard to the Labour Party, there was some perceived ambiguity as to the party's stance with only 52% of voters believing Labour MPs were in favour of Remain, according to polling.[23] In actuality it is thought that as many as 96% of Labour MPs backed remain.[citation needed] Party leader Jeremy Corbyn is known to have been a longtime eurosceptic, having voted against staying in the Common Market.[23]

[NJS 4386]

Also on Nandy, she did well against Neill but her remarks on Scotland and Catalonia were just wrong. 

[Rayvin 5223]

Just now, Renton said:

 

It wasn't an election ffs. He needed to make strong arguments and have broad appeal. Do you think he did? 

 

I recall him giving the EU 7/10 and saying he was a eurosceptic, but also making a comprehensive case for why we should remain part of it, yes.

 

Corbyn wasn't the leader of the Remain campaign. It wasn't an election indeed, so where the fuck was the Remain leader? Why would Labour blow all of its political capital with the northern leave constituencies over this?

 

At the end of this argument, I have provided numbers which, IMO, make it look like Corbyn had an impossible job winning over enough Labour voters to make a difference (who to the right of Corbyn was going to listen to him after the hitjobs going on in the press against him at the time btw?). You've got fuck all as a counter other than your gut feel. So let's just leave it.

[ewerk 30620]

1 minute ago, NJS said:

If the clear arguments didn't change leave minds in the 3 years after the vote, why would they have changed them before? 

 

We have to just face up to the fact that millions wanted it and didn't give a fuck about the how, who, why and whats in the debate. 

The Labour Leave vote was fragile. They made up their mind a lot later than Tory leavers. They were there to be won. Corbyn didn't win them over.

[Renton 21627]

Just now, NJS said:

If the clear arguments didn't change leave minds in the 3 years after the vote, why would they have changed them before? 

 

We have to just face up to the fact that millions wanted it and didn't give a fuck about the how, who, why and whats in the debate. 

 

A big problem though, the biggest in fact, has been a lack of credible opposition which is Corbyn's fault 100%. His strategy even was shit  Johnson was on the ropes yet Corbyn let him get away with it by granting an election and then not turning up. Oh, and that election was no endorsement of Brexit btw, it was a judgement on Labour. 

 

You're still not recognising the issue, hence my pessimistic stance. 

[Rayvin 5223]

1 minute ago, Meenzer said:

 

Does that include Labour voters who didn't vote in the referendum?

 

No, there is no mechanism I know of for accounting for them. We could assume that the split works both ways and is therefore negligible or you can make a case one way or the other.

 

I guess you could look at the estimates for the number of Labour voters that voted Remain in absolute terms and work it out from there but it'll still make my overall point so I'm not going to do the work personally.

[Meenzer 15531]

2 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

No, there is no mechanism I know of for accounting for them. We could assume that the split works both ways and is therefore negligible or you can make a case one way or the other.

 

I guess you could look at the estimates for the number of Labour voters that voted Remain in absolute terms and work it out from there but it'll still make my overall point so I'm not going to do the work personally.

 

So there's no way of knowing how many Labour voters looked at Corbyn's half-hearted stance towards the EU and chose to shrug their shoulders too and not vote.

 

[Rayvin 5223]

5 minutes ago, ewerk said:

In regard to the Labour Party, there was some perceived ambiguity as to the party's stance with only 52% of voters believing Labour MPs were in favour of Remain, according to polling.[23] In actuality it is thought that as many as 96% of Labour MPs backed remain.[citation needed] Party leader Jeremy Corbyn is known to have been a longtime eurosceptic, having voted against staying in the Common Market.[23]

 

Implication being what? That Labour could have easily hit around 80% had the positions of individual MPs had been clearer? I disagree.

 

As an aside, how fucking useless do you guys think the LDs were back then if Corbyn's Labour should have gotten a higher Remain percentage..!

[Gemmill 44900]

43 minutes ago, ewerk said:

I didn't see her interview last night but I've seen plenty of her on panel discussions and she's never stood out for me.

Plus her wishy washy stance on Brexit was pathetic and in complete contrast to Jess Phillips' strong anti-Brexit stance despite being in a leave constituency.

Look at these two liking one another's "I didn't see the interview but she's shit" posts. Honestly I will pick Renton up and beat ewerk to death with him if this continues. 

[Renton 21627]

3 minutes ago, Rayvin said:

 

I recall him giving the EU 7/10 and saying he was a eurosceptic, but also making a comprehensive case for why we should remain part of it, yes.

 

Corbyn wasn't the leader of the Remain campaign. It wasn't an election indeed, so where the fuck was the Remain leader? Why would Labour blow all of its political capital with the northern leave constituencies over this?

 

At the end of this argument, I have provided numbers which, IMO, make it look like Corbyn had an impossible job winning over enough Labour voters to make a difference (who to the right of Corbyn was going to listen to him after the hitjobs going on in the press against him at the time btw?). You've got fuck all as a counter other than your gut feel. So let's just leave it.

 

 

I cant prove an alternative future. Madness. Point is my predictions of Corbyn, that he would lead ultimately to a large tory majority (and many others), have been proved right. But it's not his fault. Yes, let's leave it. 

[Gemmill 44900]

19 minutes ago, ewerk said:

It was picture 12 that tipped him over the edge.

 

Show some respect for the next PM.