Politics

[Christmas Tree 4543]

Agreed at this point.

 

I've said a few times that I have no real expectation of Corbyn getting into power. But his existence weakens the 'red tops' who carry most of the country, and that in itself is important. Some positive change will come out of this. I'm hoping for PR as a minimum if he does, as you all fear, destroy the Labour Party. I can't envisage any way in which the Tories would be able to carry on with FPTP in a one party state while still calling us a democracy. Maybe this is bitter medicine that we as a nation need to swallow in order for people to stop voting stupidly.

 

As I said, I'll vote for policies, personally. I'll just have to hope that Momentum have something impressive planned with their grassroots activism in order to make a decent fist of it.

so the government is going to change the voting system to aid their opposition. Give over.

[Rayvin 5131]

nationalising public transport is something i actually think a lot of voters would lap up.

 

the borrow and spend argument has to be made convincingly and won - it's a sound economic argument, especially how cheap it is to borrow right now. but this is where having a charismatic leader would help and i don't think corbyn and mcdonnell are up to it. 

 

It is sound - but you're right, they need economists and people with credibility to come out for it. Arguably they either need the press to come out for it (which won't happen) or they need to get people who know what they're talking about out into the forefront. I posted in here ages back in one of the many arguments with CT about austerity that there were many, many internationally renowned economists who have written about policies for spending and borrowing money, and how they stimulate growth. These people do exist (although as 'experts' they may not be listened to now).

[Dr Gloom 21578]

CT, did you read that article I posted a couple of pages back which made clear that, when parties are taken out of it, and people vote on policies, we end up with the Greens in charge? That was done 2 years ago across 500,000 people. Only 14% of people chose Tory policies.

 

Here it is again: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/if-people-voted-for-policies-the-green-party-would-win-the-next-election-9887199.html

 

It would be extremely interesting to see this carried out at a national level across a larger number of people (although half a million is considerable). The majority of the electorate, and I could not be more convinced of this after Brexit, vote for what they're told to vote for by the media.

 

another huge challenge that i don't think corbyn is up to - challenging the media narrative and winning the public debate. we saw how ed miliband was destroyed because of the way he ate a bacon sandwich. we haven't seen anything yet. i actually wonder whether corbyn is physically and mentally up for what is ahead. he's about 70 isn't he? and he doesn't look that healthy, despite his low sugar, vegan diet. 

[Rayvin 5131]

so the government is going to change the voting system to aid their opposition. Give over.

 

To continue being able to call the country a democracy, they might have to. FPTP only works in my opinion when you have two parties contesting it. Take one away, and the other party looks hegemonic. That said, I think Labour under Corbyn will make a decent fist of it in the end. PR was just a worst case scenario in case Labour collapses.

[Renton 20620]

This goes back to what Gemmill said - if people are going to vote against their interests based on whether someone eats fucking biscuits then they deserve what they get.

It's not just his biscuit avoiding manhole spotting shenanigans though. He's as much a career politician as any of the others, never had a real job and is not someone the proletariat can relate to. Alan Johnson was another you dismissed as establishment. Well at least he's held down a real job before. It's a shame he didn't put himself forward. His opinion of Corbyn could hardly be lower either.

[Rayvin 5131]

another huge challenge that i don't think corbyn is up to - challenging the media narrative and winning the public debate. we saw how ed miliband was destroyed because of the way he ate a bacon sandwich. we haven't seen anything yet. i actually wonder whether corbyn is physically and mentally up for what is ahead. he's about 70 isn't he? and he doesn't look that healthy, despite his low sugar, vegan diet. 

 

True. I have similar concerns about both Trump and Clinton.

 

Corbyn has made clear he isn't going to challenge the media narrative. He's just going to ignore them. That's probably his best bet but I don't think newspaper circulations are falling fast enough for it to work in time. I think the triumph for Labour lies beyond Corbyn, but I think he's necessary for setting the party down the path.

[Dr Gloom 21578]

sadiq kahn could be a good shout for the next leader after the inevitable corbyn failure at the next election. there's a lot of tory rule to come between now and then though 

[Renton 20620]

CT, did you read that article I posted a couple of pages back which made clear that, when parties are taken out of it, and people vote on policies, we end up with the Greens in charge? That was done 2 years ago across 500,000 people. Only 14% of people chose Tory policies.

 

Here it is again: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/if-people-voted-for-policies-the-green-party-would-win-the-next-election-9887199.html

 

It would be extremely interesting to see this carried out at a national level across a larger number of people (although half a million is considerable). The majority of the electorate, and I could not be more convinced of this after Brexit, vote for what they're told to vote for by the media.

I'd be interested to see the methodology of this study like. Green policies often sound good if you don't factor in the horrendous trade offs they imply. Gloom just back for holiday to California springs to mind.

[Christmas Tree 4543]

CT, did you read that article I posted a couple of pages back which made clear that, when parties are taken out of it, and people vote on policies, we end up with the Greens in charge? That was done 2 years ago across 500,000 people. Only 14% of people chose Tory policies.

 

Here it is again: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/if-people-voted-for-policies-the-green-party-would-win-the-next-election-9887199.html

 

It would be extremely interesting to see this carried out at a national level across a larger number of people (although half a million is considerable). The majority of the electorate, and I could not be more convinced of this after Brexit, vote for what they're told to vote for by the media.

You will always have the sheep who always vote labour / Tory , because that's what grandad did etc etc

 

But middle England, the people who elect governments usually vote on the full package of policies. Which side is more competent to run the country for 5 years, not who has a few fuzzy policies. Surely the 2015 election after 5 years of austerity made this very clear to you.

 

Any sniff of doubt that a party looks financially incapable and they won't get anywhere near.

 

Not a hope in hell of middle England letting McDonnell borrow 500 billion.

 

Labours biggest mistake in recent years was appointing the bacon mauler and not his brother.

[Gemmill 43254]

"What's your favourite biscuits?"

 

Sounds like that had the potential to be a hard hitting political interview. [emoji38]

[Rayvin 5131]

You will always have the sheep who always vote labour / Tory , because that's what grandad did etc etc

 

But middle England, the people who elect governments usually vote on the full package of policies. Which side is more competent to run the country for 5 years, not who has a few fuzzy policies. Surely the 2015 election after 5 years of austerity made this very clear to you.

 

Any sniff of doubt that a party looks financially incapable and they won't get anywhere near.

 

Not a hope in hell of middle England letting McDonnell borrow 500 billion.

 

Labours biggest mistake in recent years was appointing the bacon mauler and not his brother.

 

 

You know austerity failed, right? You more or less admitted it a few weeks ago when the Tories under May came out and said they weren't cutting any more. Spending money is financially responsible when you can borrow it at low rates. It drives growth. We need growth. Badly. It might even be the only way to make a success of Brexit.

 

Look man, the economics of his plan is solid. I'm sorry but it is. I can't speak for the amount in question, but in theory there's no problem with it. Western governments have been doing it for years and it works. If you and 'Middle England' can't see that, then you deserve stagnation

 

I'm going to vote for it though.

[Rayvin 5131]

I'll add to that - Middle England is shrinking as more and more young people are falling into the working class by default. So what's left of Middle England in a few years might not find that it's opinions count for very much.

[NJS 4282]

It's not just his biscuit avoiding manhole spotting shenanigans though. He's as much a career politician as any of the others, never had a real job and is not someone the proletariat can relate to. Alan Johnson was another you dismissed as establishment. Well at least he's held down a real job before. It's a shame he didn't put himself forward. His opinion of Corbyn could hardly be lower either.

I couldn't vote for Johnson - he worships The Beatles.

[Rayvin 5131]

Scary to think how much time I've wasted on here today

[Happy Face 29]

The majority of the electorate do vote for policies, just very rarely left wing policies.

 

The average of the results was just 39.4% in favour of renewing Trident and 44.4% opposed

 

http://stopwar.org.uk/index.php/news-comment/809-does-the-british-public-support-trident

 

68% of the public say the energy companies should be run in the public sector

 

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/11/04/nationalise-energy-and-rail-companies-say-public/

 

66% support nationalising the railway companies 

 

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/11/04/nationalise-energy-and-rail-companies-say-public/

 

84% of all voters, and 77% of Tory voters, want the NHS run by the public sector

 

http://nhap.org/what-you-can-do/facts-fingertips/public-and-professional-opinion-of-nhs-privatisation/

 

61% support increasing the top rate of tax to 50p

 

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/28/majority-support-50p-tax/

 

81% would support a governmental policy to build 250,000 affordable homes a year for the next four years.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/apr/30/housing-crisis-poll-city-country-split-blame

 

Only 11% of people thought that all students should pay toward their tuition fees

 

http://wonkhe.com/blogs/british-social-attitudes-survey-3-in-4-people-support-tuition-fees/

 

 

 

 

The majority seem pretty left wing to me.  The problem is how motivated they are to vote by the options they have...

 

The general election result can be summarised in a nutshell: the Conservatives did well with voters that turn out. Labour did well with voters who don’t vote.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/22/election-2015-who-voted-for-whom-labour-conservatives-turnout

[Rayvin 5131]

Great post, thanks HF.

 

I was just going to add - the Daily Mail published more than 20 anti-Corbyn articles yesterday That has to be fear. Surely. If they just thought he was dismal, he'd not get more than a couple.

[Dr Gloom 21578]

"What's your favourite biscuits?"

 

Sounds like that had the potential to be a hard hitting political interview. [emoji38]

 

of course it isn't; it's mumsnet ffs. all politicians do it though because they realise how important it is. maybe corbyn's refusal to play the game is a good thing because he's keeping it real. but to most ordinary people he just comes across as aloof and pompous. 

Edited September 26, 2016 by Dr Gloom

[Renton 20620]

Great post, thanks HF.

 

I was just going to add - the Daily Mail published more than 20 anti-Corbyn articles yesterday That has to be fear. Surely. If they just thought he was dismal, he'd not get more than a couple.

It's not fear man, it's copy.

 

Those quotes from HF are a classic example of what I talked about BTW. So, 89% of people don't think students should pay tuition fees. How was that question worded, and did it include the inevitable trade off (increased taxes)?

[Happy Face 29]

It's not fear man, it's copy.

 

Those quotes from HF are a classic example of what I talked about BTW. So, 89% of people don't think students should pay tuition fees. How was that question worded, and did it include the inevitable trade off (increased taxes)?

 

You've mis-characterised the number. 89% of people don't think ALL students should pay tuition fees.  The links are there and provide the context.

 

 

Since 2004 BSA have asked who should pay towards tuition costs; all students or their families, some students or their families or no students or their families. In 2013, 67% of people thought that some students should, 11% of people thought that all students should and only 21% of people thought no students should pay. Surprisingly these levels have barely differed since 2004 where numbers were almost the same.

 

[Rayvin 5131]

It's not fear man, it's copy.

 

Those quotes from HF are a classic example of what I talked about BTW. So, 89% of people don't think students should pay tuition fees. How was that question worded, and did it include the inevitable trade off (increased taxes)?

 

I'd happily pay more. That said, it's not me that should be paying, it's the wealthy. They're on 45% aren't they? I'm sure that 50% is achievable without capital flight.

 

And yeah, I'm going with fear. It's about building a narrative. The narrative has to be that Corbyn is dangerous while also being incompetent. The more they put out there, the more will stick. Basic tabloid journalism, surely? Which is why this campaign has to be fought through social media, so that the Daily Heil can be outgunned.

[Rayvin 5131]

Yvette Cooper apparently not against returning to the shadow cabinet. That'd be a big win for Corbyn if he can get her on board. Until he was on the scene, Cooper was the person I would have voted for in the election.

 

I suspect that she'll make some manner of demand though, so I guess it's more of a 'watch this space' moment.

[Renton 20620]

The conservatives couldn't wish for an easier opposition, I don't understand how you can't see that from the opinion polls? The daily mail just wants to sell newspaper, and Corbyn is a gift to them regards this. He'll still get an easy ride compared to Blair precisely because he is no threat.

[Rayvin 5131]

20 articles is an easy ride? In a day??

 

I don't read it often enough to be sure I guess, but that seems substantial. The Tories will not be relishing this - I posted another article a little while ago which got buried from a conservative party journalistic source that pointed out that Momentum were out-campaigning the Tories in Tory constituencies. That they were holding 1000 people strong meetings while the Tories could only muster a handful. Actually I think you saw that article as you replied to the main point I made then about how this meant Labour were now much better off financially (you thought it was a one off windfall and pointed out that the new members wouldn't be matching the contributions you had made previously).

 

The rest of that article though, is about how the Tories are being comprehensively outnumbered in the local activism stakes. So we'll see - will local grassroots activism and social media bloody the nose of the Daily Heil? I suspect they are concerned. If the Tories aren't they're fucking stupid as well - given that the unthinkable just happened with Brexit, I wouldn't take anything for granted if I was a Tory minister.

Edited September 26, 2016 by Rayvin

[Rayvin 5131]

This is from the Unite General Secretary - quite stirring, actually...

 

I now call on Labour MPs to show what they can do from the Commons floor. Unite the party and back its leadership so that we can all fight together for this new economy.

The Tories may steal our language but it is only Labour who can deliver the vision. A vision of socialist change and a rejection of free market capitalism.

It was Harold Wilson who won four general elections, who once said ‘If Labour is not a moral crusade then we’re nothing’.

Now I’ve heard people lecture us about the futility of principles without power. But comrades, we’ve also seen where power without principles leads to.

It leads to disillusionment, disappointment and ultimate defeat. Of course we must win power. But we must also use power for our people, for working people.

So I ask all of you not to be debilitated by the media and those within our own ranks who seek to undermine your confidence in the fight that lies ahead.

So I say to the merchants of doom, in the words of Shakespeare’s Henry V, if you have no stomach for this fight depart the battlefields.

Because sisters and brothers, in my 45 years in our party I have never known such a battle that lies ahead for a better Britain and for our ideals.

What we need now is brave men and women with the courage and commitment to fight for our cause, the cause of true Labour.

[ewerk 29819]

Unite! Unite! Because if you don't we'll fucking deselect you.